Stanley Holditch
After week 9 I’m not going to even pretend I know what’s going on any more. Here are the top five scoring QBs from week 9 in order: Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Matt Ryan, Josh Johnson, and Carson Wentz. Josh Allen was 20th. Patrick Mahomes was 22nd and Joe Burrow was 23rd. All three finished behind Jordan Love in his first career start.
Anyone who says they saw week 9 coming is completely full of it. Show me one guy who had Josh Johnson in their top five and Josh Allen out of the top ten (against the Jaguars!)
Weeks like week 9 should cause all of us to start examining our assumptions, not about individual players necessarily, but about the point of even trying to prognosticate this stuff. And maybe some individual players, like Mahomes and potentially Burrow.
Looking into the EPA+CPOE composite scores of weeks 4-8, there was definitely some warning on Mahomes, but not so much on Allen, Stafford, or Burrow, who both cratered in week 9 against middling opponents. Ryan and Wentz, who both finished top-five against good and bad defenses respectively, were both in the top ten of this metric weeks 4-8.
| Player | EPA+CPOE composite | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | M.Stafford | 0.199 |
| 2 | J.Allen | 0.194 |
| 3 | T.Brady | 0.166 |
| 4 | R.Tannehill | 0.165 |
| 5 | K.Murray | 0.161 |
| 6 | J.Burrow | 0.155 |
| 7 | Aa.Rodgers | 0.151 |
| 8 | M.Ryan | 0.150 |
| 9 | M.Jones | 0.138 |
| 10 | C.Wentz | 0.133 |
| 11 | L.Jackson | 0.130 |
| 12 | T.Tagovailoa | 0.120 |
| 13 | D.Carr | 0.110 |
| 14 | P.Mahomes | 0.108 |
| 15 | T.Bridgewater | 0.098 |
| 16 | J.Hurts | 0.072 |
| 17 | B.Roethlisberger | 0.066 |
| 18 | T.Lawrence | 0.065 |
| 19 | K.Cousins | 0.051 |
| 20 | J.Fields | 0.051 |
| 21 | B.Mayfield | 0.032 |
| 22 | D.Mills | 0.031 |
| 23 | T.Heinicke | 0.027 |
| 24 | J.Goff | 0.023 |
| 25 | J.Herbert | 0.023 |
| 26 | D.Jones | 0.022 |
| 27 | S.Darnold | -0.025 |
If we take a look at a smaller sample of weeks 6-8, we see Stafford stay at the top, Allen slip a little, Burrow move up, Ryan and Wentz crater (after all, Ryan had a disastrous week 8 and Wentz is always inconsistent), and Mahomes stay right around the middle of the league.
| Player | EPA+CPOE composite | |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | M.Stafford | 0.234 |
| 2 | R.Tannehill | 0.217 |
| 3 | J.Allen | 0.180 |
| 4 | Aa.Rodgers | 0.159 |
| 5 | J.Burrow | 0.152 |
| 6 | T.Brady | 0.149 |
| 7 | K.Murray | 0.141 |
| 8 | M.White | 0.125 |
| 9 | T.Bridgewater | 0.123 |
| 10 | T.Tagovailoa | 0.120 |
| 11 | M.Jones | 0.103 |
| 12 | K.Cousins | 0.096 |
| 13 | G.Smith | 0.087 |
| 14 | P.Mahomes | 0.071 |
| 15 | B.Roethlisberger | 0.067 |
| 16 | J.Hurts | 0.061 |
| 17 | C.Wentz | 0.059 |
| 18 | M.Ryan | 0.056 |
| 19 | D.Mills | 0.039 |
| 20 | J.Fields | 0.037 |
| 21 | J.Goff | 0.024 |
| 22 | T.Lawrence | 0.020 |
| 23 | T.Heinicke | 0.010 |
| 24 | L.Jackson | 0.009 |
| 25 | D.Jones | 0.001 |
| 26 | J.Herbert | -0.052 |
| 27 | S.Darnold | -0.054 |
So other than Mahomes, there really weren’t any major warning flags on these players who unexpectedly delivered duds week 9 against lesser opponents. I do believe that the Titans and Jaguars defenses have improved some, but they did not all the sudden become world-beaters overnight. Week 9 unusually high variance on quarterbacks and pass-catchers was likely just that, an unusually high variance. So the best thing is not to overreact to this and expect a basic regression to the mean here. After all, do we really expect Colt McCoy, Baker Mayfield and Matt Ryan to dominate the position for the rest of the season as they did in week 9?
Obvious QB1 Starts in Superflex
Lamar Jackson vs the Dolphins: No reason not to put him at the top spot this week given his rushing floor is elevating every week. The Dolphins defense is nothing to be scared of.
Josh Allen vs the Jets: The Jets just put Carson Wentz in the top five. Given the info above we can safely chalk up week 9 against the Jags to an aberration and confidently start Allen this week in a plus matchup.
Tom Brady vs the WFT: Absolutely no reason Tom should not continue his dominant season against this pass-funnel defense.
Justin Herbert vs the Vikings: Herbert was one of the few top-flight QBs along with Jackson to survive the week 9 purge. After a momentary dip in the standings Herbert is once again playing great ball. Minnesota is bottom 10 in passing yards allowed per game in their past three contests.
Matt Stafford vs the 49ers: Stafford should be fine following his week 9 disaster against the Titans. The Rams need to pass less and run more, which could dampen his fantasy outlook this week.
Kyler Murray vs the Panthers: Panthers have been playing great in their past three against the pass, but that has come against Daniel Jones, Matt Ryan, and Mac Jones. Fire Murray up as long as he is healthy.
Derek Carr vs the Chiefs: Carr is still throwing a ton (46 attempts last game) and just needs to find Waller in the end zone more to be a top-five QB this week. Should be doable against the Chiefs who are giving up 1.7 passing TDs in their last three, and that includes games against Jordan Love and Daniel Jones.
Questionable QB Starts in Superflex
Patrick Mahomes vs the Raiders
Yes, we have reached that point. As we saw above, Mahome’s predictive metrics have been middle of the league since week 4. He finished outside the top 20 last week. He finished outside the top 15 in week 8. He finished outside the top 20 in week 7. Something is not right. If you haven’t already notified your league that he is available for trade, it might not be too late to do so. His name recognition alone can probably net you someone like Burrow or Herbert.
Now, there is always the possibility that things just click and he gets back to his earlier season form. But there’s no denying that Mahomes over the past 5 weeks has been at or below average, which is unacceptable given his draft capital. Would I bench Mahomes for a lesser QB? No, even though I think the probability of him finishing outside the top 20 once again is about 30%. I’d put the probability of him finishing top five at about 10%. But if you somehow have Josh Allen and David Carr, yeah I would bench him until he turns things around.
Russel Wilson vs the Packers
I think Russ is a fairly safe start in his first game back from IR, but he’s not automatic. He’s not a volume passer. He plays in the most conservative, old-school offense in the league and I don’t think that will change until Carrol is shown the door. The Packers are only giving up .7 TDs in their last three. So his own offense is working against a big yardage total, and he’s playing a team that isn’t giving up passing touchdowns in big numbers. I think he’s absolutely a solid QB2 but not a slam-dunk QB1 this week.
Jalen Hurts vs the Broncos
The Jalen Hurts mystery continues. We know he’s good at fantasy football. But is he good at real football? He’s probably good enough to finish out the season as the Eagles starter. After that I think it’s fair to expect the Eagles to at least bring in healthy competition next year. He hasn’t gone for over 300 yards since week 4. He did get a QBR north of 100 last week despite a down fantasy day.
His stats show the obvious: his team is trying to win keeping the ball on the ground and out of the air. They’ve accepted that he’s not going to be an accurate pocket passer and are embracing the run. This makes a lot of sense going against the Broncos who are giving up 5.1 ypc over their last three. A solid QB2 but unlikely to hit quality passing yardage.
Carson Wentz vs the Jaguars
God I hate to admit this but the charts don’t lie: over the past 5 weeks Wentz has been an above average QB. The Jaguars are a plus matchup giving up 71% completion rate to opposing QBs over their last three. Wentz should be a solid start again this week.
Dak Prescott vs the Falcons
Dak looked more than off last week. He looked absolutely terrible.
Given that he was just coming back from a calf injury, and before that a shoulder injury, and before that a season-ending ankle injury, it’s fair to wonder if the injuries are not mounting up and messing with his throwing motion, confidence, or both. Dak is another guy you might look at moving while his name recognition is still high. Prior to last week Denver looked absolutely beatable through the air, just like the Falcons do now.
Matt Ryan vs the Cowboys
Ugh, Matt Ryan. Turned in a couple good games before the bye, came back from the bye totally limp, then managed another good game while throwing two touchdowns to Zacheus. Ryan is taking what the defense gives him, and if that means ignoring Pitts and zeroing in on a no-name player he’s doing that all day. Diggs will likely play on Pitts, meaning it’s another dink and dunk day for Ryan, and it will probably be good enough for a top-15 finish.
Teddy Bridgewater vs the Eagles
Steady Teddy is back, not overwhelming, not underwhelming. Likely a safe bet against the Eagles, who are giving up 1.3 passing touchdowns in their last three. He threw for 249-1 against the Cowboys and I would expect similar numbers, possibly an extra touchdown.
Kirk Cousins vs the Chargers
The Chargers are an incredibly tough defense to pass against, so expect Dalvin Cook to shoulder most of the load here. Cousins is under 200 yards passing in his last two outings, both coming against defensively inferior opponents (Ravens and Cowboys). He’s still capable of throwing deep as evidenced last week, but there isn’t enough volume, and his intended air yards per attempt are down to 6.8 after averaging 8 last year.
Mike White vs the Bills
The only defense outperforming the Chargers against the pass are the Bills. This makes White’s third start a dicey one, but he might be the only QB on the bottom half of QB2 status who is a real threat to throw for 300+ yards. His encore was cut short last week with a forearm injury, so this will be his follow-up from his blowup game where he threw for 400+ yards. Elijah Moore’s emergence in week 9 bodes well, but owners should temper their expectations and play more established threats at the position if they have them.
Ryan Tannehill vs the Saints
Despite a decisive victory against the Rams and no Derrick Henry, Tannehill had a very subpar game with 143-1-1. Very on-script for week 9. HIs prior two games were much better, eclipsing 250 yards passing in each, but Tannehill seems to always remind us that he’s difficult to trust even as a QB2. The Saints should be a better matchup for him, averaging 270 passing yards allowed over their last 3 and giving up 332 to Matt Ryan.
Jimmy G/Trey Lance vs the Rams
Honestly I have no idea who will end up starting or finishing this game for the 49ers and we are unlikely to get any indication before Saturday. If its Jimmy G, expect low passing numbers but an efficient game. If it’s Lance, expect a decent rushing floor (like 45 yards) and multiple sacks and picks. Either way it’s a desperation play and not a recommended start.
Baker Mayfield vs the Patriots
Good for an efficient 235 and 2 most weeks, just not someone who will help win your week but not someone who will lose it either. Low-end QB2, should deliver more points than most flex options.
Taylor Heinicke vs the Bucs
The last and least of the viable QB2 options, just don’t start him thinking the Bucs are still a pushover in the passing game. Over their last three they are surrendering only 163 passing yards per game, good for second in the league.
QB Sits in Superflex
Tua/Brissett vs the Ravens: If it’s Tua he bumps up to a mid-range QB2 option but it’s not sounding promising as of Wednesday.
Goff vs the Steelers: Not a starting option even in Superflex.
Big Ben vs the Lions: Arm is cooked, same as every other week.
Mac Jones vs the Browns: The Patriots are trying to win dirty and this leads to very mediocre stat lines from Jones. If both Harris and Stevenson sit with concussions, he could be serviceable as a QB2.
PJ Walker vs the Cardinals: Going against the Cardinals pass rush is not how you want to start your NFL career.
Trevor Lawrence vs the Colts: I still have hope for this kid, but not until Meyer is fired.
