Superflex QB Sit/Start Week 14

UPDATE: Mike Williams is on the COVID list which bumps Herbert down.

Last week I predicted Mahomes would come roaring out of the bye and put up the type of performance we have all come to know, love, and expect from the unquestioned first QB off the board. Obviously I was pretty off. Mahomes finished with just 184 yards and no touchdowns, which put him behind names like Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton, and Taylor Heinicke.

However I feel pretty good about my #2 pick Brady (QB2, 368-4) and #3 pick Kyler Murray (QB1, 123-2, 59-2). Stafford, my QB4 finished as QB5 with 295-3, beaten out by Taysom HIll with 264-2, 101.

This is the last week before the playoffs begin, so getting things right this week is crucial. Let’s take a closer look at our QB Sit/Start decisions for Superflex leagues in week 14.

Obvious QB1 Starts

Dak Prescott vs WFT: WFT is #1 in fantasy points per game allowed to QBs on the year, and while they have improved to middle of the pack since week 8, I still have a feeling this is Dak’s week to finish as QB1. Cooper should be fully healthy and Gallup is back, and the running game just isn’t getting it done, at least as long as the Cowboys keep feeding Zeke.

Josh Allen vs the Bucs: After enduring the wind bowl, Josh gets sunny Tampa and their middle of the pack pass defense. I think an offensive explosion on both sides of the ball is called for after we watched 1950s football in the wind bowl.

Aaron Rodgers vs the Bears: This game is in Lambeau and Rodgers does just own the Bears. He’s 21-5 against the Bears, who are at the bottom of the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Rodgers is on a hot streak, cresting 300 yards and throwing 6 TDs in his last two starts. He makes a fantastic start this week.

Lamar Jackson vs the Browns: His last outing against the Browns wasn’t great (46.5 QBR due to 4 picks) but he righted the ship against Pittsburg and his rushing floor dictates he shouldn’t be much lower than this. Strong start this week.

Kyler Murray vs the Rams: While the Rams are not the defensive stalwart we once thought, they are a much tougher matchup than Chicago. I’d expect more passing from Murray as this game figures to be down to the wire. Maybe one rushing TD but certainly not two.

Tom Brady vs the Bills: The Bills are still one of the toughest defenses in the league and especially hard on quarterbacks. Maybe that had something to do with Mac Jones’s 3 pass attempts on Monday night. I think Brady will have a good game and is a mid-QB1 start this week, but nothing close to last week.

Mathew Stafford vs the Cardinals: Stafford will need several good streaks to match this ranking. Odell clearly is not adding much to this offense and I think Stafford and McVay have realized that force-feeding him targets is not really helping the team. I think another outing of 270-310 yards and 3 touchdowns seems right.

Taysom Hill vs the Jets: I probably have Hill too low again given that he’s going to be running all over the Jets, but his hand injury worries me for his passing output. Very strong start.

Patrick Mahomes vs the Raiders: Mahomes has simply put too much great play on tape to not call him an automatic QB1 start. However, very little of that tape will feature 2021. I feel like another explosion is inevitable, but fear it may not come in time for his owners banking on his greatness for a playoff berth. 230-2 seems about right, which will probably be good for QB10 as long as he sprinkles in a few runs.

Joe Burrow vs the 49ers: If not for a mind-boggling tipped ball interception from Chase, Burrow would have had another 50 yards and a TD added to his 300-1-2 line. One of these weeks it’s going to all pull together for Burrow, but I’m not sure it’s this week. I still think he’s a solid low-end QB1 and a fantastic QB2 if you’re lucky enough to have him and one of the guys above.

Justin Herbert vs the Giants: He’s riding high after a QB3 finish and faces the Giants who have no offense and very little defense. But he’s now most likely without his top two wideouts in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. He still has his tight ends and Ekeler and Jalen Guyton, but this hurts his prospects significantly.

Russell Wilson vs the Texans: Believe it or not the Texans are giving up the fourth fewest fantasy points to QBs since week 9. Not sure why this is, probably because they put up so little fight that most teams can just run out the clock starting in the third quarter. With Davis Mills back under center things should improve for the Texans a little, and Wilson is improving albeit slowly. If this is finally the week they feature Metcalf, he could end up much higher.

Solid QB2 Starts

Jimmy G vs the Bengals

The Bengals defense is floundering especially against the pass. And Jimmy has been playing better ball than you think lately. Always dealing with a changing cast of characters, Jimmy focused on his best receiver in Kittle and put up 299-2-2.

I like Jimmy as a strong QB2 this week and based on the day Herbert had, I don’t think the Bengals constitute a huge upgrade in terms of defensive opponent.

Kirk Cousins vs the Steelers

Cousins is about as all over the place, literally. He lined up behind a guard against the 49ers.

Still, in five of his 12 games he has gone for over 300 yards passing, and has four games with 3 TDs. You can’t count him out as a high-end QB2, even on a Thursday night game. The Steelers defense is nothing special, so start with confidence as long as you don’t have two of the QBs listed above.

Derek Carr vs the Chiefs

Normally one would start any viable QB against Mahomes simply out of anticipation of a shoot-out, and Carr is good at those. However, Mahomes is not producing the offense he once did and the Chiefs are actually one of the better defenses in the league, ranking fifth against opposing QBs the since week 8. I don’t have the faith in Carr that I once did, but he’s still a solid QB2 start this week.

Taylor Heinicke vs the Cowboys

This kid needs a nickname, like Headband Johnny or Mr. Fantastic. For now I’m just going to go with Rudy. The kid has plus athleticism and always seems to play above his God-given ability, which is somewhere around the Case Keenum range. Anyway, as good as the Cowboys have been on defense, they actually rank 16th in fantasy points allowed to QBs, so there’s good reason for having Heinicke listed as a solid QB2 start.

Questionable QB2 Starts

Justin Fields vs the Packers

A) it’s the Packers. They just destroy the Bears. B) We don’t know to what degree he is healed from his rib injury. C) Allen Robinson has seemingly played his last down for the Bears and I can’t blame him. But one would hope, emphasis on hope, that faced with a matchup they are almost certain to lose, that Nagy completely takes the reins off and lets Fields use his legs and his cannon of an arm. Mooney can burn the Packers defense, and Kmet has come a long way this season. Fields averaged 7.2 ypc against the Packers in October. Let’s hope he sees way more than the 6 carries he saw then. I’d start Fields against most options at the Superflex unless you have someone like Elijah Moore in that spot.

Ryan Tannehill vs the Jaguars

In his last matchup with the Jags he posted a 108 QBR but only 197 yards passing. Since then Tannehill has been all over the map, and he’s down to some pretty bad options surrounding him. Julio might be back this week, might not (they did activate him off IR). I wouldn’t trust Tannehill for more than about 210-1-2 and if that is good enough to start for your team start away. If you need more I would look at other options.

Teddy Bridgewater vs the Saints

Is there a player more boring than Teddy? I don’t think so. You’re practically guaranteed something between 200-250 yards and maybe a score. He plays Detroit who should be good for some easy points but they may have a fire lit under them after their first win. Not a great start but likely better than most flex options at other positions.

Zach Wilson vs the Saints

The burgeoning connection with Elijah Moore is great news for Wilson and his owners. He’s still, at best, a barely startable QB, BUT the Saints are ranked dead last over the past five weeks in fpa to QBs. So he’s a hold your nose start this week.