Stanley Holditch
Last week I did a little VBD analysis on the first pick in Superflex, comparing the relative value of taking Mahomes #1 vs McCaffrey #1. While there is no wrong answer because it all depends on how you develop the rest of your roster, it did seem that with even modest projections for McCaffrey, he was the winner in terms of return.
The bigger question is when to take a QB in general when playing Superflex or 2QB leagues in redraft.
As you can see in the image above, QBs went heavy in the first two rounds, with Brady being taken as the 9th QB at 2.10. This is in a casual $35 best ball league.
However, in a recent 12-team expert league, only 4 QBs went in the first two rounds (image below).
In yet another experts league, this one from FootballGuys staff, and a 14-team Superflex, we see a vastly different draft strategy being employed, with 14 QBs going in the first two rounds.
I’ve come to the conclusion that trying to decipher what is the right way or wrong way to draft in Superflex is a meaningless question. There is no right way, and if you are in the front half of the draft there is really no way of knowing how the draft will go and what will come back to you in the second.
Drafting for Value vs Avoiding Runs
First let’s take a look at the casual bestball league since most people reading this will not be drafting against industry experts, because really this is about reading tendencies and taking advantage of them. I’ll use the guy who took Brady as an example.
Pairing Brady with Murray is really nice, but is it better than pairing Ridley with Cooper? Had this team taken Ridley, he could have still grabbed Gibson as RB1 and then gotten Matt Ryan on the return in the 4th. So the comparison that’s relevant here is Brady vs Ryan and Ridley vs Jeudy as last starter vs last starter.
| QB | Season Point Projection | PPG | Weekly Differential |
| Tom Brady | 341 | 21.3 | +4.2 |
| Matt Ryan | 274 | 17.1 | -4.2 |
Now let’s take a look at the WR comps between Ridley and Jeudy.
| WR | Season Point Projection | PPG | Weekly Differential |
| Calvin Ridley | 324 | 20.3 | +6.5 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 221 | 13.8 | -6.5 |
This is assuming that Brady has a 1% improvement over last year (could be too low) and that Ryan declines by 3%. I’m assuming Ridley improves by 15% given the departure of Julio funneling more TD targets his way (could be wrong, Pitts is there) and giving Jeudy a 40% improvement over his rookie season and getting Bridgewater throwing more accurate passes underneath.
The point here is not to dissect the projections but to see if there is a massive difference in QB value and WR value given two starting QB spots among 32-34 starters, and 3-4 WR spots given 66 starters (give or take).
Unless this team believes that Brady will take yet another leap this year, or that Ridley will not benefit substantially from being the #1, VBD says that taking Ridley would make for a better team, and it just so happens there would have been no negative downstream RB impact assuming this team would have still grabbed Edwards when they did (11th round, no reason to think not).
The run here was strong, but not overwhelming, as it did not constitute half of the first two rounds as it did in the FBG expert draft.
Superflex QB Runs and How to Respond
We’ll take a look at the same spot, 1.3 in the FootballGuys 14-team Superflex Draft. First off, I have tremendous respect for this site and it’s writers. so take that bias for what it’s worth.
Dan Hindery did exactly what I would recommend in taking McCaffrey, even in a 14-team format. With only 1 QB taken, there was no real way to know that 10 QBs would come off the board before his next pick. But according to this draft, he did the right thing with his next pick in taking Burrow, because another 3 QBs came off the board before he picked again. And only 1 running back. But let’s look at the numbers.
| QB | Season Point Projection | PPG | Weekly Differential |
| Joe Burrow | 313 | 19.6 | +3.1 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 264 | 16.5 | -3.1 |
Now let’s look at Najee vs Mixon.
| RB | Season Point Projection | PPG | Weekly Differential |
| Najee Harris | 259 | 16.2 | +0 |
| Joe Mixon | 259 | 16.2 | -0 |
Hindery did exactly what you should do when faced with a massive run at the QB position in a Superflex: respond. The fact that he likely had both Mixon and Harris ranked higher than Burrow on his cheatsheet no longer mattered. There were 11 QBs taken and a cliff was coming, some would say it had already passed with Herbert going at 2.10.
WR and RB value was getting pushed way downhill with Tier 1 WRs available in rounds 3 and 4, and Tier 2 guys like Harris, Barkley, and Chubb going in round 3.
So What’s the Strategy
In sales, you must always enter into negotiations with a BATNA (Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement). You should approach your Superflex drafts with a similar mindset – you have to know what QBs you think will outperform but have enough risk baked in that they will fall to at least round 3 or 4 if you decide to spend on higher tiers at other positions early on.
If you are drafting in the first half, it is crucial to identify at least two guys that you truly believe will outperform ADP and be prepared to take them before ADP if you pass on QB in the first few rounds. The safest bet for me is to grab Mahomes, Allen or Murray and then pass on QB until about round 4 and shoot for high upside guys like Winston, Lance, Lawrence, Mac Jones, Fields, and Fitz.
If you choose to stack value at RB and WR in the first three (for instance Dan could have taken McCaffrey, Chubb (personal preference), and Ridley, he could have gone Lawrence, Fields (again, personal preference), and Wilson in rounds 4-6 and still been more than ok. Given the value he got in rounds 1-3, I think this tactic would work well.
If you are drafting in the back half, I absolutely advocate stud RB-WR (or TE if that’s your thing) and then taking best available QB. I love what Wilde did here with Hill and Prescott, and I did about the same in my bestball with Adams and Prescott. I think he waited just long enough on QB2, and got an upside guy in Fitz and a safe guy in Teddy.
The Main Point
There is no wrong strategy, you have to respond to the draft. But you can’t stick to your pre-draft strategy in the face of a massive run or you will take guys a round earlier than you could have when QBs are flying off the board and you are losing value at one of if not the most important position in Superflex.
Adapt. React. Win.
