Stanley Holditch
This column is expressly designed for those of us playing in Superflex and 2QB leagues and is a deeper look at quarterback options, specifically for the second slot. It focuses primarily on sit/start decisions, sell-high-buy-low decisions, and analytics and patterns emerging at the QB position.
Obvious QB Starts Week 5
Josh Allen vs Chiefs: Bad defense, good QB, high scoring game.
Patrick Mahomes vs Bills: Bills have a good pass defense but nothing Mahomes can’t handle.
Lamar Jackson vs Colts: No reason to think too hard about this one. Lamar is on a tear right now and should be getting Bateman back this week.
Kyler Murray vs 49ers: With Lance under center this should be more of a game, but as we saw last week lack of competition is about the only thing that can limit Kyler’s fantasy potential.
Aaron Rodgers vs Bengals: This should be more of a fight with the Bengals unleashing the passing attack last week against and Mixon potentially gimpy.
Dak Prescott vs Giants: The Cowboys are running more and passing less, but Daniel Jones’s 400-yard outburst last week gives some hope that the Cowboys will need to pass to win this one.
Mathew Stafford vs Seahawks: Even on a down week with poor accuracy and terribe coaching, Stafford still delivered a decent day albeit in garbage time.
Russel Wilson vs Rams: The deteriorating play of Chris Carson likely means that the Seahwaks pass more.
Jalen Hurts vs Panthers: Jalen has now delivered QB1 numbers for two straight weeks and seems to rise to the level of his competition. I’m not worried about the Panthers defense shutting him down.
Tom Brady vs Dolphins: Brandy should rebound after a nasty night in driving rain against the Patriots. I don’t expect the Dolphins to put up much of a fight.
Justin Herbert vs Browns: I actually expect this to be another down game for Herbert as the Browns are just killing opposing QBs since they teed off on Fields in week 3.
Kirk Cousins vs Lions: A down game against the Browns shouldn’t stop you from rolling out Cousins against the Lions D.
Questionable QB Starts Week 5
Joe Burrow vs Packers
I almost put Burrow in the obvious section this week due to his stellar play and passing volume in week 4 against the Jaguars, but he did have a pretty rough first half. Regardless he had the highest rating of all QBs week 4 and had the third fewest yards on the 10th fewest attempts of all QBs playing 4 quarters.
Burrow is slowly becoming one of the best QBs in the league. He should get Tee Higgins back which should come at the expense of CJ Uzomah’s breakout role, but helps the passing game overall nonetheless. The Packers are not a tough defense and Rodgers and company will keep this game tight. Burrow is a great start this week.
Taylor Heinicke vs Saints
Daniel Jones showed that the Saints defense is beatable, but I don’t know if Heinicke possesses the tools that Jones used to do so. He delivered last week as expected against Atlanta, engineering a late game comeback to win 34-30 and a 290-3-0 line with 5-43 rushing. His chart shows good deep ball ability and he is keying on McLaurin who gives him the best shot at long completions.
I think Heinicke is a great start at QB2 and could outperform a few of the guys above in the QB1 index.
Trey Lance vs Cardinals
Jimmy G’s calf injury finally opened the door for Lance, and he responded with over 20 fantasy points in a half. There’s no question Lance is going to be good at some point, and there’s no questioning his physical ability, but I would pump the breaks just a bit before starting him over more established QBs. He did throw for 157 yards and a TD in just one half of action, but check out how he got 77 of those yards and the TD. Any quarterback in the league would have completed that pass. Hell I probably could have completed that pass. I think Lance is going to have just as much of his share of rookie bumps as the other rookie QBs, so start with some caution and realize it won’t necessarily be pretty.
Daniel Jones vs Cowboys
Will lightning strike twice? Daniel Jones was the top performing QB in the league week 4, racking up 402 yards passing and 2 TDs and 4 for 27 rushing against the Saints. Payton’s defense didn’t record a single sack against Jones, and the lack of pressure led to only a single interception from Jones, and no fumbles. 203 of his yards came after the catch, suggesting that the Saints did not rise to their usual level of defense in this game.
It’s hard to argue with this chart, as Jones was completing deep passes for touchdowns and hitting receivers regularly 15 yards behind the line of scrimmage, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance. The Cowboys are an underrated unit and have one of the best corners in the league in Travon Diggs. I expect he and Micah Parsons will disrupt Jones early and get him back to his normal output.
Matt Ryan vs Jets (UK)
Another guy I don’t expect to repeat his performance is Matt Ryan, who had his best game of the season in a losing effort against WFT (283-4). His completed air yards shot up to 7.8, much closer to his season average, but his deep ball is still lacking zip and he got lucky that Patterson was lost by the defense. As you can see from his chart, he’s still bunching most of his throws underneath.
The Jets are still one of the worst teams in the NFL, but they did hold Tannehill sans Julio and AJ to an 85 passer rating and a single passing TD. These UK games always seem to under deliver, so start with caution.
Zach Wilson vs Falcons (UK)
Ryan’s opponent had his coming out party against the pathetic Tennessee defense, throwing for 297-2-1 and notching a QBR that almost broke 100. The Falcons are bottom 10 in sack percentage so Wilson should be able to perform if he can shake off the rust that always comes with London games.
Wilson’s ability to make throws has never been in question, and he made some good ones in this game, directing his receivers and buying time in the pocket. But I would not bet on a repeat performance here. Expect a low-scoring, boring game, and under 250 yards passing with a pair of picks.
Sam Darnold vs Eagles
I actually expected Darnold to have a down week against the Cowboys, and in some respects he did. He had an 85 QBR but ended up getting it down with his legs again, rushing for two more scores and maintaining the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns by a QB. However his two passing touchdowns didn’t come until the fourth quarter, when the game was pretty much decided and the Cowboys let off the gas. Still, his owners have to be thrilled with the early returns even if they are unsustainable. 301-2-2 along with 6-35-2 will do that to you.
The Eagles are struggling and badly need a win. They are dead middle in both sack percentage and yards per completion. But I think the team rallies for a win here and you have to think a focus will be keeping Darnold out of the end zone. Still Darnold is a solid start in a start-two league.
Mac Jones vs Texans
What better way to rebound after a painful loss than to play the Texans? Mac played well in terrible conditions and did much better than Brady, completing 31 of 40 passes for 275 yards for 2 touchdowns and a pick. McDaniels has said their pass-run ratio is unsustainable, so expect fewer passes and more runs against a reeling Texans team. Moss and Singletary both had good days, so I think this will be similar to his game against the Jets in week 2: lots of running, very little passing, and an easy win. Sit Mac for better options this week.
Justin Fields vs Raiders
Fields had an incredible game against the Lions (irony noted) but had a terrible fantasy day. 11-17 for 209 and a pick is not going to win anyone a week as a QB2, but the potential is there. Lazor called a run-heavy game script that minimized the weakness of the offensive line and ended up buying Fields enough time in the pocket to connect with Mooney on several deep throws. Nagy announced today that Fields is the starter going forward, and I’d bet money he was told to start Fields or start working on his resumé. However it got done, it means good things for the offense now and in the future.
With more attempts and more time to hone his game, Fields will emerge as viable every-week starter at QB2 and could ascend to a low-end QB1 this year. Las Vegas is no slouch against the pass, in the top half of passing yards allowed but in the bottom half in sack percentage. Fields is still a risky starter but is worth a shot to see if Montgomery’s injury affords him more passing opportunities.
Ryan Tannehill vs Jaguars
As I noted last week, Tannehill is not well. It was happening before both Julio and AJ Brown went down with injuries, and it got worse against the Jets. Yes, he almost broke 300 yards, but he had an 85 QBR and only 3.8 completed air yards per completion. It’s obvious from his passing chart, 9 passes at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Furthermore everything beyond 20 yards deep was an incompletion. That can’t all be on the receivers. He also took 7 sacks. Something besides running Derek Henry 30+ times per game is going to have to start working for this offense. I wouldn’t start Tannehill unless both Julio and Brown are back, even against the Jags. Now is the time to trade Tannehill for a younger prospect with more potential like Lawrence, Fields, Jones, or Wilson. I doubt you can get Lance, that hype train is at full speed.
Trevor Lawrence vs Titans
BUY NOW. Buy before he goes against the team that just made Zach Wilson look like a competent quarterback. If you are holding an underperforming vet with good name recognition, like say Tannehill, make the offer today. Throw in a WR4 if you have to. Urban Meyer is quite obviously one to two losses away from eiher quitting or being fired. He obviously doesn’t care about coaching for the Jaguars. Losing Meyer will be addition by subtraction and allow Lawrence to flourish. Granted, he did not have a great fantasy day against the Bengals but that was easy to call. Despite the low numbers he was getting it done with his arms and his legs in the first half and if Meyer hadn’t flubbed the calls they probably would have won. Run, don’t walk to make an offer if you are in need of a solid QB2 or QB3 the rest of the way.
Bench Until Further Notice
Jared Goff: The Bears put on the breaks big time on defense last week and Goff gobbled up garbage time points. I don’t think that happens this week against a rising Minnesota defense.
Jacoby Brissett vs Bucs: Just not getting it done on any level.
Davis Mills: Not NFL ready, may never be.
Jameis Winston: It’s just not gonna happen this year for Jameis.
Drew Lock: If forced into action, won’t be starter material vs the Steelers.
Ben Roethlisberger: Nope.
Baker Mayfield vs Chargers: The Chargers are tough on opposing QBs this year, just ask Derek Carr. Mayfield is at best a game manager in the Browns offense and there are better options out there.
