Stanley Holditch
Teams on Bye: Saints, Jets, Falcons, Niners
Lamar Jackson attained God status Monday night in fantasy circles. Justin Herbert continues to render the best QB of the 2019 class a non-debate. Taylor Heinicke fell back to earth and Daniel Jones left hopeful owners holding the bag.
This Superflex QB Deep Dive Week 6 looks at QB starts for superflex and 2QB leagues, focusing on start decisions for the second QB or flex slot.
Automatic QB1 Starts
It’s not that guys on this list don’t have some questions and there isn’t some variance in performance, they are guys that I simply can’t see benching under any circumstance in superflex leagues.
Lamar Jackson vs the Chargers: The Chargers have been more successful than any other team at shutting down opposing QBs, but there is no way they stop the tear Lamar is on. What he did Monday night was truly special and will go down as one of the greatest single-game QB performances of all time. To all who drafted him congrats, enjoy the ride.
Josh Allen vs the Titans: Thus far the Titans have made Zach Wilson look competent and Trevor Lawrence look like a star. Just imagine what Josh Allen will do to them.
Justin Herbert vs the Ravens: Speaking of Monday night, one of the funniest things I heard was an announcer describing the Ravens defense as “league-leading.” I guess he just forgot it’s not 2000.
Kyler Murray vs the Browns: The Browns pass rush is impressive with Myles Garrett tearing through the league since his week 3 pantsing of the Bears, but Kyler has enough quicks and accuracy to escape and do plenty of damage downfield. Be aware that Murray is questionable with an issue with his throwing shoulder, conjuring bad memories of a 2020 campaign derailed.
Patrick Mahomes vs WFT: As bad as the Chiefs have been thus far Mahomes is still really good. Not the unquestioned QB1 anymore with Lamar and Kyler battling for that top spot, but WFT presents a get right opportunity for his team and his fantasy owners.
Tom Brady vs the Eagles: Thursday night has not been the fantasy curse it used to be. Tom should go for at least 325 and 3 against the Eagles.
Jalen Hurts vs the Bucs: Hurts is legit good, at least for fantasy, and you can’t really put the Eagles losses exclusively on him. The Bucs are giving up the 6th most fantasy points to QBs.
Mathew Stafford vs the Giants: Even when Stafford plays badly he ends up producing. He was inaccurate again week 5 and still managed 365 yards and a score against the Seahawks. The Giants give up the ninth most fantasy points to QBs.
Dak Prescott vs the Patriots: Dak just doesn’t need to pass that much to win. The Patriots defense is beatable on the ground as Fournette proved and I expect the Cowboys to lean on the run game, but Dak should still throw a few TDs and get around 280 yards.
Aaron Rodgers vs the Bears: This game is in Soldier Field and the Rodgers magic has not been what I thought it would be all season. The Packers have declining points in their past four games and Rodgers has only game with over 300 yards (which was last week).
Questionable QB Starts
Joe Burrow vs the Lions
The question is not, and really never has been Joe Burrow’s ability. Despite an absolutely perplexing interception against the Packers, Burrow is playing excellent football. The only reason I consider him a questionable start this game is that he was forced to throw more against Jacksonville and Green Bay. The way Detroit is playing I am not sure that will be the case, so this comes down to Mixon’s health. If Mixon gets a full vote of confidence for a regular snap share for this game, Burrow becomes a more questionable start. If Mixon is not fully healthy, we can expect the attempts to stay north of 30 and a good game.
Baker Mayfield vs the Cardinals
Baker had his best game of the season in absolute offensive explosion against the Chargers. The Cardinals are in the bottom third in the league in fantasy points allowed to QBs and that makes it unlikely that Mayfield repeats his 300+ yard performance. Baker is just not a plus prospect at the position and is thoroughly average at the position. I think he makes for a decent QB2 start, but don’t expect anything like last week which is an anomoly for him.
Trevor Lawrence vs the Dolphins (UK)
I am really not sure what the NFL is trying to do by shipping its worst teams to the UK…is this supposed to help the brand? Anyway, Trevor predictably broke out against the Titans and his buy low window might be over, but it’s still worth a shot to try and nab him for an underperforming veteran.
What’s missing from this chart is his rushing performance (7-28-1) which made this a really solid fantasy day. His arrow is pointing up and Urban Meyer must be fired if he doesn’t get this win, and really should have been fired this week. I don’t know what else Khan needs to see to admit a mistake and move on. The team has. Solid start against the Dolphins and still a buy-low.
Kirk Cousins vs the Panthers
The bloom has come off the rose. Since his scorching start to the season, Cousins has turned in below average performances in his past two starts, only notching a single TD in each and staying below 300 yards in each contest. He has zero rushing upside giving him a very shaky floor. Carolina is averaging 3.2 sacks per game through five, and I don’t think that his old legs can evade their pass rush. The Panthers have softened a bit but also are only allowing a 58% completion rate this season and 63% in their last three. Sit Cousins this week for higher upside options at QB like Fields and for emerging skill position flexes like Kadarius Toney and Devonta Booker.
Sam Darnold vs the Vikings
Another QB who started hot but is now seeing his value plummet is Sam Darnold. He didn’t just have a down game against the Eagles—he had a total meltdown. 177 yards, 1 touch, 3 ints. His rushing floor disappeared as well (2-10 and no scores).
Minnesota is stiffening against QBs lately (59% completion rate in their last 3). I would sit Darnold for higher upside options like Trevor, Heinicke, and Fields or a high-upside skill player.
Daniel Jones vs the Rams
If Daniel Jones plays, which is looking more likely after he was seen tossing the ball around at practice, I think he makes for a really solid start and could be a good buy low. Beware that he was not performing well AT ALL vs the Cowboys before he went out, but the Cowboys are playing lights out on defense under Dan Quinn and that was an easy call. The Rams defense is a shell of its former self, and I think they would give up a lot of points to Jones if he plays. Solid start if healthy.
Carson Wentz vs the Texans
Wentz had one hell of a night Monday night. After turning in average performances all season, he broke out for 400+ yards and two TDs in what looked like it was going to be a route of the Ravens. Then Lamar put the entire franchise on his back and willed his team to a victory. One can’t discount this performance for Wentz completely, but expecting it to become the norm would be a mistake.
The long TD was more of a great play by Pittman than Wentz, as Pittman had to come back to the ball and catch the ball over a defenders helmet. The Texans are not as bad against the pass as some might expect, ranking 14th in fantasy points allowed to QBs. Expect something more along the lines of 250 yards and 1-2 TDs, not anything close to Monday night. If that’s better than your other options, start away.
Mac Jones vs the Cowboys
Mac Jones had a down week against the Texans as the Patriots tried to achieve more balance in run vs pass. He tied his career-low in pass attempts with 30, and the Patriots found themselves down early against the Texans and needing a comeback to win. The balance was pure 50/50 if you count Mac’s run for 3 yards. Not only did the formula not work, not only did Harris once again fumble near the goal line almost costing them a win as in week 1 against the Dolphins, but there’s very little chance New England’s defense is stout enough allow a run-friendly game script. Thus I think we see Mac with around 40 attempts, which has provided good enough numbers for a QB2 start thus far. I expect at least 1 pick, possibly 2, but also around 275 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Derek Carr vs the Broncos
Poor Derek Carr. Say whatever you want about Gruden, he was good for Derek Carr’s career and was an unabashed supporter. I can’t imagine losing Gruden is a good thing for Carr or the team in general. He fell victim to a very good Bears defense that currently ranks 1st in sacks per game, holding him to just 206 yards and 1 interception and no scores and sacking him 3 times. The Broncos are 1st in completion percentage allowed at 56% on the season. Last game’s chart is not pretty:
All the throws bunched around the LOS show that the Bears were successful in disrupting Carr’s game with pressure. The Broncos can likely achieve coverage sacks with Surtain and Fuller while doubling Waller. Given all the turbulence I see a down night for Carr, sit for better options.
Taylor Heinicke vs the Chiefs
The Chiefs are a get-right matchup (#1 in fantasy points allowed to QBs) for Heinicke who is alternating good and bad weeks. If he can’t get it done against the Chiefs and throws up another stinker, the team will have to think about turning back to Ryan Fitzpatrick, even though he’s not exactly a paragon of stability himself. If you have Heinicke rostered and don’t have really great options he’s a must start in this opportunity. He must know the pressure is on, and one thing we have learned about Heinicke is that he leaves absolutely nothing on the field. Start.
Teddy Bridgewater vs the Raiders
The Raiders are actually pretty tough on opposing QBs, but in superflex leagues it’s hard to sit someone who just turned in 288-2-1. Bridge is a good bet for solid QB2 production with QB1 upside. He’s top 10 in intended air yards (9.2) and the Sutton connection is going to start hitting, possibly this weekend. He’s also a good buy-low with Jeudy coming off IR sooon.
Ryan Tannehill vs the Bills
Sooooo Tannehill is not looking good this season. He’s currently sandwiched between Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz in average fantasy points per game. And what’s worse, his points have declined for 3 straight weeks. His rating and completion percentage have been erratic, and he’s 22nd in EPA+CPOE composite. And now he gets the Bills, 1st against QBs. We are all hoping that this is AJ Brown’s breakout week, but wouldn’t that mean that it has to at least be a significant improvement for Tannehill? Against the #1 pass defense in the league? It’s hard to see, especially with their offense running completely through Henry and no one seemingly able to stop it. Sit if you have better options.
Justin Fields vs Packers
Over the last three games, the Bears are dead last in pass attempts per game. As in 19 attempts per game. Those games were the offensive black hole against Cleveland, the not nearly as close as the score looked game against the Lions, and the drubbing of the Raiders this past Sunday. Does anyone on earth think that the Bears can have a shred of hope against the Packers throwing 19 times and relying on Damien Williams and Herbert to win? Me neither. Just to put that number in perspective, the next closest attempts/game are the Saints with 26 over the same span. The Packers have the sixth most pass attempts against them in the past 4 weeks (excluding the anomaly against the Saints). So how did Fields look against the Raiders?
But consider that Fields has shown a good deep ball, Packers’ opposing QBs are averaging 38 attempts per game, he could be looking at his breakout week. And he is not rushing the ball, at all, right now. 4 yards against the Raiders. Expect attempts—passing and rushing—to skyrocket against the Packers.
Abandon All Hope, Ye Who Start These Guys
Jacoby Brisset: Big bag of nope on this one.
Davis Mills: I actually almost put him into the questionable start category but I need to see one more game like his last one.
Gentle Ben: A shell of his former self, might be time for the shelf. Eat some hay? I just may…
Jared Goff: Just not getting it done, 0-5, poor Lions fans.
Geno Smith: Yes, Geno looked great in relief of Wilson, but I refuse to believe you don’t have better starting options somewhere on your roster. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he outplayed Tannehill.
