Stanley Holditch
Week 12 had only a few surprises in terms of QB finishes. Wentz cracked the top 5 with 306 yards and three touchdowns against the Bucs. Mac Jones broke form and delivered a great fantasy day against Tennessee, posting 310 yards and two touchdowns with no picks. And Trevor Lawrence came in at QB10 with 228-1 passing with a pick and 5-39 rushing.
Lamar Jackson disappointed with four picks to go along with 165-1 passing and 17-68 rushing. Brady fell flat as well finishing as QB20 with only 226-1-1 passing as Leonard Fournette put the team on his back with four touchdowns.
Week 13 is shaping up as a great week for DSTs, with New England’s torrid defense neutralizing a top-five QB in Josh Allen, but there are some great starts, beginning with Patrick Mahomes at QB1 for week 13. Check out our superflex QB sit/start for the week.
Obvious QB1 Starts
Patrick Mahomes vs the Broncos: Denver finds themselves in the bottom half of the league in opponent passing yards per game, and you have to think the Mahomes we will see coming out of the bye is closer to week 10 than week 11.
Tom Brady vs the Falcons: The last time these two teams faced off Brady threw five TDs. The Falcons have gotten appreciably worse since that week 2 game. The only risk to Brady’s production is the total ineptitude of the Falcons offense, which may lead to a heavy dose of Fournette in the second half.
Kyler Murray vs the Bears: Murray gets his first game back in Chicago against the Bears, who are giving up 226 ypg to opposing passers at home this year. They’ve been better recently, but those games came against Detroit, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. Kyler should be more than ready to go after the bye and he gets Hopkins back as well.
Matthew Stafford vs the Jaguars: There’s no question that Stafford is off on his throws some of the time, but he managed to overcome that last week for 302 yards and 3 touchdowns. The connection with OBJ was established even though there were several misses. The Jags have played well against opposing QBs but lately those are names like Matt Ryan, Jimmy Garoppolo and Carson Wentz. They did shut down Josh Allen in week 9, so they still may not be the pushover Stafford owners are hoping for. Still I think Stafford hits his rhythm at some point and posts a big game.
Lamar Jackson vs the Steelers: Lamar has not been great lately, but the Steelers couldn’t stop anything through the air or on the ground against the Bengals. That bodes well for Lamar’s output, which I think includes two passing scores and one rushing score.
Josh Allen vs the Patriots: Tough to have him this low after last week, but this Patriot defense is going HAM right now and I can see them completely shutting down Buffalo. Like 13 points shutting them down. Allen is too good to have any lower as he does possess the ability to beat a really good defense on his best day, but this will have to be his best day.
Dak Prescott vs the Saints: Dak has been crazy inconsistent this year. But his peak games are week-winners, like his 375-2 game last week, or his 445-3 game week 6, or his 403-3 game week 1. New Orleans is keeping opponents under 200 yards passing their last three, but allowing 250 on the year. I don’t think we see a peak game as I expect New Orleans to run the ball effectively and control clock, but I think 275-3 is well within a reasonable range of outcomes.
Justin Herbert vs the Bengals: 3 out of his last 4 games he has gone over 300 yards, and Cincy is in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed. With both offenses firing, expect a high-scoring game (over/under set at 50.5) and Herbert to be the primary beneficiary.
Kirk Cousins vs the Lions: Andy Dalton just dropped 300 passing on the Lions. Cousins should shred them especially without Dalvin Cook doing so much damage on the ground. 320-3 seems completely reasonable.
Joe Burrow vs the Chargers: The primary danger to Burrow’s value rest of season is the quality of the opponent and Joe Mixon. Mixon is having a career year due to Cincy’s overwhelming presence to lean on the ground game whenever possible. The Chargers are top five against the pass on the year but in the bottom half of the league their last three. Also their run defense has stiffened as of late, dropping to just 3.6 ypc allowed vs the 4.7 average over the year. Those games came against Denver, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota, so a mix of great running backs and mediocre to decent passing. There’s reason to believe that the Chargers keep this game very close, and Cincinnati will find itself behind at some point. All that bodes well for an up week for Burrow.
Derek Carr vs the WFT: Carr has not been great his last three but showed out against Dallas on Thanksgiving, and that’s not an easy defense to drop 373 on. WFT, however, is, so expect Carr to get back to his high-yardage totals against them in what should be a close matchup.
Tua Tagovailoa vs the Giants: Tua had a crazy efficient day vs Carolina, with 27 completions against just 4 incompletions and no picks. It wasn’t the best fantasy day, but Carolina remains a competent defense, and though the Giants almost shut out the Eagles, I think we have to chalk that up to a meltdown game from Hurts, as they are middle of the pack in passing yardage allowed on the year. I expect a slightly more productive fantasy day for Tua, something like 275-2.
QB Starts with Some Risk
Jalen Hurts vs the Jets
So obviously the opponent is not the concern here. Hurts is supposedly running on a bum wheel and if Hurts can’t run effectively, what is he? A terrible quarterback. He was a terrible quarterback last week and didn’t go into it with a bum ankle. How bad?
Sub 50% completions, no touchdowns, 3 picks, just bad bad bad. And that was against the Giants. Now, as I wrote in my column asking if he is actually good at football, Hurts is going to require some patience, just like Lamar did. The primary difference between them as young players is the Ws and Ls, where Hurts is falling way short. While it’s hard to bench him against the Jets, if I had two players from the above I wouldn’t hesitate. It all depends on how well he can move.
Taysom Hill vs the Cowboys
I wouldn’t bench Hill for inferior options, but even with his rushing ability I would hesitate to expect too much in his first game against Dallas. He should have a good rushing floor, but with Kamara out and no one to fear in the receiver ranks, wouldn’t it be smart to spy Hill the whole game to limit that rushing ability. Dare the kid to beat you with his arm? Seems like that is exactly what Quinn is going to do which could be disastrous, could be ok. HIll has shown some promise as a passer, but it isn’t his strength. The range of outcomes here is super wide, but he’s a start over the options below.
Mac Jones vs the Bills
Jones finally pulled together a fantasy-worthy game against Tennessee. 310 yards, two touchdowns, no picks. Good for a QB7 finish.
And now he gets the Bills. The Bills are second in the league in passing yards allowed, and second in yards per rushing attempt allowed. They have softened against the run a bit, and I’m sure Belichik is counting on his defense to win this one. I don’t think Jones will be able to repeat last week as he sees fewer passing attempts. Still a good QB2 start, but won’t finish anywhere near the top ten this week.
Carson Wentz vs the Texans
It’s Carson Wentz, but it’s also the Texans. Even Zach Wilson beats the Texans. He won’t have another top-five finish this week but 250-2 seems about right.
Taylor Heinicke vs the Raiders
RUDY!!!!! You gotta love this kid, no talent, all heart. I think he manages a decent game against a soft defense, but he’s low-end QB2 material in superflex. Temper expectations, but his rushing floor is enough to make him good for about QB17.
Russell Wilson vs the 49ers
Russ managed a decent game despite what was a pitiful effort in real life. Something is wrong with him. He’s sailing passes over his target’s heads and totally ignoring DK Metcalf. He’s not running enough to overcome his lack of accuracy and Carrol’s allergic reaction to risk. I don’t see a top-15 finish this week for Russ against a 49ers team that is built to control the clock and beat you on the ground.
QBs to Bench for Better Options
Andy Dalton vs the Cardinals: Unlikely to string two good games together against the Cards.
Jimmy Garoppolo vs the Seahawks: Barely a part of the offense most weeks, pretty much the definition of a game manager.
Tryod Taylor vs the Colts: Another really tough matchup, and honestly I don’t see why Tyrod is starting. He’s obviously not a starter at this point in his career. Mills at least might be.
Teddy Bridgewater vs the Chiefs: Another caretaker against another really tough defense, and he’s injured as well.
Matt Ryan vs the Bucs: There are no quicker ways to age yourself than watching Matt Ryan play football.
Trevor Lawrence vs the Rams: Doing better but I don’t want Meyer’s play-calling setting him up against Von Miller and Aaron Donald.
Ben Roethlisberger vs the Ravens: No.
Jared Goff vs Anyone, but the Vikings this week: Double no.
Zach Wilson vs the Eagles: God help you.
Mike Glennon vs the Dolphins: Start anyone else, a third string tight end, anything.
