Waiver Wire Week 2, Panic Room

Before we get to the waiver wire, let’s enter the panic room and have a good sit.

A few owners (or rosterers, JFC) got to exit the panic room this past weekend. Zeke owners got a good day (16-71-1, 2-26), even though Tony Pollard by every measure had a better day (13-109-1, 3-31). Be happy you got a good day, and Pollard owners might have more than a handcuff. Zeke had the snap share 71% to 34%, but maybe that’s more of a 55-45 after this game.

Owners of the Atlanta passing game (Ryan, Pitts, Ridley) got to exit, though Ridley owners might still have one foot in the door after he turned 10 targets into only 63 yards, but did get a score. Pitts saw only 6 targets which he turned into 5 catches for 73 yards, and still saw no end zone targets and only 1 red zone target. Pitts needs more work.

King Henry quieted doubters and reclaimed his crown as a top-five back, and the best part is he’s been involved in the passing game for two straight games and is making the most of it (9-74). And Tennessee won a game they likely would have lost if not for continuing to focus on Henry.

Saints? Yeah, might be time to panic but I am Wilson-Phillips-ing to Winston for another week. We got one good week, and one frankly terrible week (like 26.2 passer rating bad). He looks scared to throw into tight coverage and his receivers are not separating and creating opportunities. I think Callaway is droppable after two terrible performances, but the entire offense stunk to high hell so maybe this is just a throw away game.

I recommended dropping Tua for Taylor Heinicke in 2QB leagues and I’ll stick by that today. Here is my list of droppable guys before setting out the guys to grab.

The Drop List

Jameis Winston, Tua Tagovailoa, Zach Wilson, Trey Sermon, Boston Scott, Rhamondre Stevenson, Tevin Coleman, Eric Ebron, Devonta Freeman, OJ Howard, Ronald Jones, Gio Bernard, Amon-Ra St. Brown, MVS.

Waiver Wire Week 2

Quarterback

Taylor Heinicke, 4% rostered, 10% FAAB

The sample size on Taylor Heinicke is so small, we really have no idea what we can expect from the surprise star of Thursday night. In a game and a half this season, he has played as well as anyone could have expected him to. Last week he had more completed air yards/completion (CAY%) than Justin Herbert (7.5 to 6.8) despite a higher drop % (8.7% to 13.3%). Fast forward a week, the CAY% goes down to 5.6 but he gets 74% completion leading to 336 yards with two scores and a pick. It’s enough to make you wonder what he can do going forward. Chances are it’s enough to keep Fitzpatrick on the bench. He gets Buffalo next.

Daniel Jones, 20% rostered, 8% FAAB

I don’t like Jones, but if the Giants are going to continue to feature him in the run game, that could make up for a lot of his deficiencies. He ran 9 times for 95 yards and had a long TD called back due to penalty, which would have put him on par with Lamar Jackson in terms of QB rushing for the week. He wasn’t bad as a passer either, finishing with 249 and 1 TD and a 102.2 rating, so him vs Heinicke comes down to how your league rewards passing vs rushing.

Teddy Bridgewater, 18% rostered, 8% FAAB

Bridge is probably not available in most Superflex leagues, but just in case he is, he’s worth a pickup. The only reason I don’t have him higher is that he has faced two pretty terrible defenses so far (Jaguars, 27th in passing yards allowed; Giants 25th) but his next two opponents are actually worse (Ravens 32nd, Steelers 29th). He had 328 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions last week. Pretty promising so far.

Sam Darnold, 15% rostered, 7% FAAB

Darnold has strung two good games together against the Jets and New Orleans, and could make for a good QB2 if things keep going his way. His upcoming schedule looks good as well with tilts against the Texans and Cowboys up next, plus dates against the Giants in week 7 and Atlanta in week 8.

Mac Jones, 25% rostered, 5% FAAB

Jones disappointed fantasy managers due to an absolute rout of the Jets, where he really didn’t need to complete long passes or attempt many (30) to get the win. Three of his next 4 games (against the Saints, Bucs, and Cowboys) are going to require more of an offensive output to win, and none of them have what one would call stout pass defenses.

Davis Mills, 0% rostered, 1% FAAB

This is a true desperation, warm-body-needed play as Mills has appeared completely unprepared for NFL action in both the preseason and his limited play last week. That being said, deep Superflex leagues and 2QB leagues occasionally present these warm-body needs and he fits that category.

Running Backs

Cordarelle Patterson, 16% rostered, 15% FAAB

Probably everyone has picked up and dropped Patterson over the years, but his situation in Atlanta is probably the best he’s had in his career. He’s the best back on the team, his team is going to need to utilize his receiving skills, and he’ll be the back on the field when the team is down big, a scenario likely to repeat itself all season. Further, Smith has shown a preference for throwing behind the sticks on third down and relying on YAC to pick up the first.

JD McKissic, 29% rostered, 14% FAAB

McKissic showed that he is not going anywhere this past Thursday. He vultured a TD in the first half and caught a long 56-yard pass as well. He was on the field for 44% of the snaps and that share could grow. Further, Washington is 25th in total defense this season, meaning they could need to lean on the pass more than the run to keep them in games.

Sony Michel, 60% rostered, 12% FAAB

Michel could have been dropped in your league and depending on the severity of Henderson’s rib injury, could be in line for starter snaps. It’s week 2 and Henderson is already injured. I don’t see him getting Henderson’s 100% snap share if he is the lead back, but 4.6 ypc is nothing to sneeze at.

Wide Receiver

Rondale Moore, 35% rostered, 35% FAAB

There is a chance that Rondale got dropped for one of the hot preseason names, or after a disappointing week 1 finish. He’s got the ability, is on the most exciting offense in the NFL with the best QB through 2 weeks, and saw a team-high 8 targets despite just a 46% snap share. Green is done, Kirk is inconsistent. Moore could be the WR2 going forward.

KJ Osborne, 4% rostered, 20% FAAB

If there was a WR on only 4% of teams that got 76 yards receiving week 1 and 91 and a touch week 2, you’d be interested right? That player is KJ Osborne for the Vikings, who saw a 59% snap share and seems to be the locked in WR3 for the Vikings. If you’re holding on to a Jets receiver not named Elijah Moore, I think you have an instant chance for improving your team.

Michael Pittman Jr, 61% rostered, 20% FAAB

Can you say break out game? Pittman caught 8 of 12 targets for 123 yards against the Rams, and should be the teams WR1 even with Hilton back. 12 targets was twice the number Pascal got, and should be a consistent number as the Colts are relying less on Nyhiem Hines in the passing game. Probably not available but worth a look.

Quintez Cephus, 2% rostered, 15% FAAB

2 touchdowns through 2 games. Second only to TJ Hockenson in targets, 89% snap share. He’s clearly establishing himself as the WR1 on the Lions, who believe it or not are currently 12th in the league in passing yards. I can see week to week consistency in the range of 60-80 yards and a good shot at a touchdown.

Tight End

Pat Friermuth, 7% rostered, 2% FAAB

Finding a TE on the WW that isn’t completely TD dependent is really hard. While Pat only saw 4 targets last week for a measly 36 yards, he saw twice that of Ebron who went catchless. The Steelers typically do not feature a tight end so keep that in mind, but he did see a 59% snap share. I see that rising as Ebron becomes the forgotten man in Pittsburgh. That translating into reliable fantasy production is a longshot.

Evan Engram, 32% rostered, 2% FAAB

Speaking of longshots, what are the odds of Engram playing half the season? He looked good in preseason before leaving the final game with a calf injury that has kept him sidelined so far. Always a target hog with decent talent, if Engram can return and if he can cure his 2020 case of the drops, he should produce. That’s a lot of ifs.

DST

Carolina, 22% rostered, 20% FAAB

They basically blanked the Saints, confusing them with blanket coverage and an unexpectedly ferocious pass rush. They are the #1 ranked defense in the NFL. And they get Houston on a Thursday night starting an absolutely terrible rookie QB. There are few perfect storms in fantasy, and this is one. They could set record highs in your league for DST scoring, and I don’t absolutely hate their matchup with the Cowboys the next week as the Boys didn’t exactly light the world on fire against the Chargers. Spend on this one if you start DST.

Las Vegas, 3% rostered, 5% FAAB

Is Vegas a good defense? They are in my leagues. Not set the world on fire, but consistent and against two teams with fairly good offenses in Baltimore and the Steelers. They get Miami this week so they are worth a weekly stream.