Stanley Holditch
This is probably the biggest question in Superflex and 2QB redraft leagues.
And it’s not an easy one to answer. On the one hand, as the above two rounds of best ball suggest, not taking a QB with the first pick basically guarantees you miss out on the top QBs. Even Brady went before it came back to the turn.
While one could certainly make a case for Allen or Murray over Mahomes, there’s really only one other player who could take the #1 spot, and that’s McCaffrey.
So this comes down to your faith in your projections and the advantage of the player you take over who will come back to you at the turn. The player in this $35 best ball league opted to not take a QB after Mahomes and with good reason. PPR standard scoring.
Value-Based Drafting Differentials
If the team in the first spot had not taken Mahomes, they probably would have locked up at least one starting QB in their next two. Since they are back to back the pick values are the same. So let’s look at Mahomes vs next best available at QB, who I have as Ryan Tannehill with a modest 3% improvement over last year with Julio in the fold. I have Mahomes at a 7% improvement over last season due to o-line improvements and to account for his one missed game. For consistency I will calculate per-game on a 16-game season
| QB | Season Point Projection | Per Game Differential |
| Patrick Mahomes | 401 | +2.8 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 356 | -2.8 |
Now of course these are just projections, but considering I am bumping Mahomes more than Tannehill, I think they are solid. So a 2.8 ppg difference over next best available QB at the turn.
Comparing CMC with the next best available, clearly Ekeler since he was picked at that spot by the team that went with Mahomes. Both Ekeler and McCaffrey have wider variances of projections due to multiple missed games last year. McCaffrey played in just 3 games, 2 of which he was at less than 100%, but still saw 18 carries. This should give him a 5.3x multiplier, but those would be insane numbers so I backed it off to a 4.5x given the small sample size.
Ekeler started 10 games but really only played in nine since he saw only 2 carries before getting injured last year. This gives him a 1.7x multiplier but I bumped it to 1.85x to factor in improvement from Herbert. So let’s see what the does to the value of this pick.
| RB | Season Point Projection | Per Game Differential |
| Christian McCaffrey | 407 | +6.3 |
| Austin Ekeler | 306 | -6.3 |
Of course we are looking at the 1st slot in a vaccum of the first two picks. But in terms of pure VBD comparison, given that there are:
- two QB slots (Superflex basically mandates starting a QB in that slot to be competitive on a weekly basis)
- two required RB slots (there is a third WR/RB/TE flex)
- that there are probably as many unstartable QBs (thinking Goff, Jones, Darnold, Bridge)
- as there are RBs that are either in committees or just altogether wretched (Ronald Jones/Fournette/Gio, Williams/Gordon, David Johnson/Lindsay/Ingram, Coleman/Johnson/Carter, Singletary/Moss)
I think drafters at the 1 slot should not feel like they have to take Mahomes or whoever they have as QB1 to be competitive. You are always trading value at one position for value at another in the first few rounds when you should always be taking best available.
Next Best Player Differential
Another thing to consider is does the player you take at the 1 spot give you an advantage over any other player at the position, and is it significant?
After Mahomes Murray and Allen are pretty consistently next in line in some order, so these are the consensus top 3. You want an advantage over all players at the position if you take someone #1.
| QB | Season Point Projection | Per Game Differential |
| Patrick Mahomes | 401 | |
| Josh Allen | 400 | -.16 |
| Kyler Murray | 398 | -.19 |
There is basically no difference between them, and I have Dak ranked above all three. One might say this is moot given that there is no way any of these guys make it back, but is it?
Compare that with McCaffrey against the other two consensus top-3 RBs in Kamara and Cook. It’s not much but it is a different picture.
| RB | Season Point Projection | Per Game Differential |
| Christian McCaffrey | 407 | |
| Alvin Kamara | 397 | -.63 |
| Dalvin Cook | 388 | -1.19 |
Again not a huge difference but a much better advantage against nearest competition, and this is assuming a full season from all three players, without much of a bump for anyone outside of that. In fact, given the sample size we are not giving McCaffrey his full multiplier to account for all the games he missed.
I’ll be live-tweeting the results as well as post the full board here once it’s finished.
