Stanley Holditch
If you are new to 2QB or Superflex drafts and are dipping your toes in the water this season, I have one central piece of advice: don’t overreact to the format.
Yes quarterbacks are infinitely more valuable. Yes quarterbacks remain the highest scoring players in just about every scoring system. But this doesn’t mean you throw out principles of Value-Based Drafting (VBD), originally conceived by Joe Bryant of Footballguys.com and still one of the best drafting principles to follow.
If you aren’t familiar with VBD, I highly recommend you read this article. But if you need the tl;dr version, consider this quote which neatly expresses the guiding principle:
The value of a player is determined not by the number of points he scores. His value is determined by how much he outscores his peers at his particular position.
– Joe Bryant
If your league features two starting quarterback spots, and there are no roster limits on the position, you do need to watch runs. Getting stuck on the wrong side of a QB run in a 2QB or Superflex league can be absolutely disastrous to your team. Simply because the best QBs are going to destroy your starters at that position, and given that QBs generally score the highest points in any format, that could lead to differentials that will be really hard to overcome even with a strong advantage at multiple other starting positions.
In my experience, going into any draft with a set plan of taking a certain number of positions by a certain round is usually a path to disaster. You should absolutely be aware of ADP so you can anticipate when runs will occur. Another thing is do NOT be afraid to overpay for the players you want. While doing your own projections is a massive pain, and it may not even give you projections better than what’s easily available online, it does force you to think through what players will improve on the previous year, what players you think will decline, and what players you think will stay the same.
Testing the Stud QB Theory
This morning I completed three mocks using rotoworld’s (Ahem, sorry, NBC Edge or whatever) mock draft tool, which even though I was drafting against computers allowed for a quick view of three different strategies, the first two of which I would not recommend.
In the first, drafting from the 10 spot, I decided on taking two QBs in the first two rounds. Here’s what I ended up with:
| Roster Spot | Position | Round | Player |
| QB | QB | 1 | Josh Allen |
| RB | RB | 4 | Clyde Edwards Helaire |
| RB | RB | 6 | Chase Edmonds |
| WR | WR | 3 | Terry McLaurin |
| WR | WR | 5 | Robert Woods |
| WR | WR | 7 | Ja’Marr Chase |
| TE | TE | 10 | Evan Engram |
| Flex | Flex | 2 | Kyler Murray |
| K | K | 15 | Brandon McManus |
| DST | DST | 12 | Rams |
| Bench | RB | 8 | James Robinson |
| Bench | RB | 9 | Darrel Henderson |
| Bench | WR | 11 | Darnell Mooney |
| Bench | QB | 13 | Jameis Winston |
| Bench | WR | 14 | Elijah Moore |
Obviously this approach netted me two stud QBs, who I currently have ranked #2 and #1 for the season at their position. However I am forced to start a totally unproven RB in my second slot in Edmonds, and I’m backing him up with even dicier prospects in Robinson and Henderson. My TE position is total crap and by the time I took Engram taking a backup TE would have been meaningless.
I missed out on surefire #1 WRs as well, even though I am happy with my group as I expect all three to vastly outperform ADP. It’s worth noting that I don’t think Rotoworld’s (it will always be Rotoworld to me baby) drafting engine has adjusted to the Superflex format.
No Quarterbacks Until Round 4
| Roster Spot | Position | Round | Player |
| QB | QB | 4 | Kyler Murray |
| RB | RB | 3 | Chris Carson |
| RB | RB | 5 | Mike Davis |
| WR | WR | 1 | Tyreek Hill |
| WR | WR | 2 | DeAndre Hopkins |
| WR | WR | 8 | Ja’Marr Chase |
| TE | TE | 6 | Kyle Pitts |
| Flex | QB | 7 | Ryan Tannehill |
| K | K | 15 | Will Lutz |
| DST | DST | 13 | WFT |
| Bench | RB | 9 | Darrell Henderson |
| Bench | WR | 10 | Curtis Samuel |
| Bench | WR | 11 | Darnell Mooney |
| Bench | QB | 12 | Kirk Cousins |
| Bench | RB | 14 | Jamaal Williams |
This is where the mock draft engine gets really exposed. There is no way Murray should be available in round 4, especially with both Rodgers and Watson likely to miss part or all of the season.
My WRs are much improved, though I don’t think Carson is a huge improvement over CEH. I definitely like Mike Davis better than Edmonds though. Pitts as TE1 is a huge improvement over Engram, despite his rookie status. Personally, I don’t put too much stock in the rookie TE trend. Every player and every situation is different.
No Set Strategy on Taking QBs
| Roster Spot | Position | Round | Player |
| QB | QB | 2 | Josh Allen |
| RB | RB | 1 | Jonathan Taylor |
| RB | RB | 4 | Najee Harris |
| WR | WR | 5 | Ceedee Lamb |
| WR | WR | 6 | Cooper Kupp |
| WR | WR | 7 | Ja’Marr Chase |
| TE | TE | 12 | Cole Kmet |
| Flex | QB | 3 | Dak Prescott |
| K | K | 15 | Justin Tucker |
| DST | DST | 13 | Browns |
| Bench | RB | 8 | Javonte Williams |
| Bench | WR | 9 | Curtis Samuel |
| Bench | RB | 10 | Darrell Henderson |
| Bench | WR | 11 | Darnell Mooney |
| Bench | WR | 14 | Laviska Shenault |
Depending on who you are drafting against, this mock felt the closest to what could actually happen in a real Superflex draft. In my Superflex money league last year, I was able to get DeShaun Watson in round 3, and he ended up as QB2 in that league’s scoring system.
While lacking a true stud WR1, I feel like Lamb and Kupp are in for monster seasons. Lamb was on a torrid pace before Dak went down, and Kupp should see better targets from Matt Stafford and benefit from more extended drives, since Stafford actually knows how to play quarterback unlike his predecessor.
I feel very good about starting Taylor every week, and I think between Harris and Williams, one will finish in the top 12 RBs this year. I did not draft a third QB, but Mac Jones, Justin Fields, and Jameis Winston went undrafted. By the time I need a bye week replacement, I think one of those three should be available and worth a start.
The point here is that even in a 2QB or Superflex format, you should always let the draft come to you. Belichek is the best coach in the league because he never goes into a game thinking “this is what I want to do.” He treats every team and every week as its own animal and adjusts accordingly.
But Aren’t These All Against Computers?
Yes, which means there is very little deviation from the expected rankings, and as I mentioned Rotoworld’s algo is probably not fine tuned to Superflex leagues. Which is why I am drafting in a Superflex Best Ball League tonight on myffpc.com and will be posting those results tomorrow for comparison.
