Stanley Holditch
2QB Leagues are rarely won on the strength of the QB1. Most competitive teams will field an especially strong QB since few teams are waiting to draft their first QB.
Having a strong QB2 is essential, and knowing where the value exists at that position is key. Teams that opt for safety at this position usually sacrifice valuable players at important skill positions like WR2 and WR3 and RB3 when they grab “safe” QB2s in the mid-rounds.
For the purposes of this article I am using 2QB ADP rankings from fantasyfootballcalculator.com and we are only looking at QB13 and above (assuming a 12-team league). If for some reason someone like Brady, Hurts, or Tannehill falls into your hands in later rounds, jump on that opportunity as long as you’ve secured both starting RBs and at least two starting WRs.
This article will assume your draftmates know what they are doing, and as always we will embrace upside and risk over security.
QB2 Target #1: Jameis Winston
As I mentioned in my perfect draft article, I think Winston is a potential league winner in 2QB leagues this year:
What if I told you the league-leader in passing yards just two years ago would be available in the 10th round in a 2QB league? What if I told you that quarterback played with poor vision and had corrective surgery AFTER this season? And what if I told you this same QB got to sit and learn behind one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, and gets to play for one of the top offensive minds in the NFL, and is about to be handed the keys to one of the better offensive systems of the past decade?
-Yours truly
Winston is safely available in the 10th round, and even better, if you are looking for insurance against a total implosion, you can get Taysom Hill one round later. Realistically though, I don’t think Payton would start him if he didn’t think he had exorcized Winston’s turnover demons.
Winston doesn’t have to totally cure his decision-making woes to perform like a top-8 QB this year. He just has to curb them enough to not put the Saints in a position to lose winnable games, which will result in him getting yanked for Hill quick.
Given his upside (at least 4700 passing yards and 30+ TDs) there is no other QB available this late who can deliver those kind of stats. He’s worth the risk.
QB2 Target #2: Joe Burrow
Burrow is barely a QB2 at his fourth round ADP and QB13. But after he caught his stride as a rookie, before his knee injury, Burrow was performing like a top-five QB as a rookie with one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.
Much has been made of one beat writer report during camp that claimed Burrow was looking scared in the pocket and missing throws that seemed like “layups” last season.
Since that reports, beat writers are reporting steady progression.
I think Burrow may have another shaky week before he hits full stride, but also think there are few QBs available after the first 12 with his combo of talent, volume, and skill players around him. Cincinnati has one of the most talented WR trios in the NFL along with Dallas and Tampa, and despite lingering concerns about the offensive line, I think Burrow is poised for a potential top-10 finish, especially in leagues that offer yardage bonuses.
QB2 Target #3: Ryan Fitzpatrick
If there is a better guy to root for in the NFL, I don’t know who it is. But at a 6th-round ADP, we need more than a good story to settle on for Fitzmagic as a QB2.
Was he that good with Miami last year? Yes and no (literally). His splits are downright schizo. In the first 6 games, he had three games where he threw for under 200 yards, and three games where he threw for over 300. He had a QB rating as high as 154.5 and as low as 44.6. In two games he had a total of five picks and zero TDs. In another three he had seven scores and no picks.
So is there really reason to believe that Fitz will even out in his 16th year in the league? Basically no. He will have better weapons this year, and for the first time in a while no one knocking on the door, but if you draft Fitz as your QB2 be ready for a roller coaster.
QB2 Target #4: Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan is the anti-Fitz: a picture of consistency, and for some reason a guy I absolutely can not stand. Maybe it’s his goofy-ass face.
But the guy is practically a lock for 4500+ yards and 25+ TDs every year, and even at his 5th-round ADP, he should probably be above Fitz. We know he will give owners at least 3, maybe 5 weeks where he finishes top-five, and with Pitts replacing Julio, one could argue his team actually upgraded his pass catchers.
It’s just that his upside is so limited, and his outcome so predictable. I’d rather roll the dice with Fitz and take a WR or RB in round five before they dry up.
QB2 Targets #5/6: Justin Fields and Trey Lance
These guys are basically identical in skill sets, situations, coaches being dumbasses and trying to ignore reality, and season outlook. Both Shanahan and Nagy are desperately trying to avoid the glaringly obvious: these guys are ready to start week 1, and they are not going to do their teams (or their careers) any favors by starting the veterans.
Dalton, while serviceable, is long past his prime, and Jimmy G just never really became that good. The coachspeak is still going strong, and unfortunately I think both of these guys will miss the first few games of the season in the name of pure obstinance. But both are available in round 8, and once they hit the field, I like both better as weekly plays than Lawrence.
If you can tolerate a less-than ideal QB2 the first few weeks (like Goff, available in round 12-13), then targeting one of these guys in the 8th isn’t a bad strategy.
QB2 Target #7: Trevor Lawrence
Speaking of guys you don’t want to root for, there’s Trevor staring at you in round 5. Personally I won’t be drafting him because if I’m going to pay that price, I’d rather just take someone boring and predictable like Ryan than risk going through the inevitable rookie jitters the first few weeks.
But since he is always compared to Andrew Luck, let’s just assume he does something akin to Luck’s rookie year: about 4300 yards, around 23 TDs, and 18 INTs. Good, but not great QB2 numbers.
The Rest
Tua is not a terrible pick in round 6, but I want more than just a shot at mediocrity for that level of investment. Derek Carr and Sam Darnold in the ninth are decent warm bodies to fill the slot, but brutally uninspiring. After that, the only ones worth consideration are pairing Cam with Mac Jones, but only if you have bench spots to burn. If not it’s a good situation to avoid as neither one will perform great when they do start. Probably the best of the rest is Roethlisberger in round 7, but as previously stated I think I would rather roll with Fields or Lance and take my early-season lumps.
