Welcome to the Byepocalypse. Allen, Prescott, Herbert, Cousins, and Lawrence are unavailable. Also Big Ben but who cares. The Superflex QB Sit/Start Week 7 is here to help you navigate and win without blowing up your squad.
Thoughts on the QB Landscape
We are a third of the way through the regular season. Week 6 saw some notable changes in the QB landscape. QB2 hopefuls Taylor Heinicke and Daniels Jones fell extremely flat, and Tua came roaring back from his IR stint with a great game for owners that hung with him or scooped him off the WW. Sam Darnold continued his slide.
In his first full-game as a starter, Geno Smith looked mostly awful, but more importantly he exposed just how dependent Seattle’s game plan is on Wilson’s unbelievable efficiency and accuracy. Carrol stayed conservative, running Alex Collins into the dirt late in the game and avoiding throws downfield.
Looking forward into week 7 and beyond, there is a really good chance that we see a changing of the guard back to Ryan Fitzpatrick in Washington. Seattle has been talking with Cam, and based on Patriots camp and preseason, it’s hard to see how he wouldn’t provide at least a modest upgrade over Geno Smith after he got at least a week to learn the playbook. It’s worth asking if Russel Wilson will come back and play at all this year. Right now he’s slated to be out until about week 11 or 12, at which point it’s hard to see Seattle in realistic competition for a wild-card spot in the NFC. His well publicized desire to be traded in the offseason and his obvious disgust with Carroll’s uber-conservative play calling are factors to consider.
Obvious QB1 Starts for Superflex Week 7
Patrick Mahomes vs the Titans: This is one of those games where Mahomes and Henry could both set career highs. The Titans passing game came to life in the second half Monday night, meaning there will be no reason to let off the gas, especially with KC’s terrible defense. Top start of the week.
Lamar Jackson vs the Bengals: I expect this game to go down to the last seconds, and it’s probably the best matchup of the week. Expect Lamar’s passing numbers to go back up into the 300s and at least two scores passing and one rushing.
Tom Brady vs the Bears: I’m a big fan of the Bears defense, but I think mostly they will just piss Tom off. There’s no way their secondary can account for all the weapons Tom has, and OJ Howard did enough last week to keep linebackers and safeties busy.
Matt Stafford vs the Lions: McVay has shown two things that Stafford’s fantasy owners love: a willingness to keep running up the score against inferior opponents, and a willingness to pass within the 10-yard line. If living well is the best revenge, this should be one hell of a revenge game for Stafford.
Aaron Rodgers vs WFT: Rodgers has not been as explosive as some of us originally thought in what should be The Last Dance in Green Bay. Maybe he’s saving it for the revenge game next year. However few teams elicit great QB performances like the WFT, so expect something more like his performance against Cincy than his game against the Bears.
Joe Burrow vs the Ravens: Yeah, I’m putting Burrow above Murray this week. Despite a negative game script last week against the Lions and letting Brandon Allen throw the last TD, Burrow finished as QB8 with only 29 attempts. I don’t think he’ll have that luxury against the Ravens, and we should see something closer to 35-40 which should push him above 350 passing and a few scores.
Kyler Murray vs the Texans: Kyler’s best fantasy finish among QBs in standard PPR the last three weeks? 6th. His other finishes were 9th and 22nd. I don’t think the Texans present enough of a challenge to bring out his best game.
Derek Carr vs the Eagles: Carr bounced back sans-Gruden with a solid line and gets a much softer defense than he’s faced in his last 2 (Bears and Broncos). His connection with Ruggs is building which adds a totally new dimension to his offense, and I think 350 and 3 is within his range of outcomes, but the floor is probably more like 280-1-1.
QB1/QB2 Superflex Starts with Caution
These guys have shown enough promise that they don’t warrant benching. It’s a short list this week as there are more question marks at QB than I remember anytime in the league recently. We are seeing a changing of the guard at the position, with all five (six?) rookies showing promise but also throwing as many head-scratchers as wow plays.
Jameis Winston vs the Seahawks: Something changed in week 5 with the Saints. They started actually passing the ball. This was the main thing holding Winston back (apart from being wildly inaccurate and making extremely questionable decisions with the ball that just happened to keep working out). Let’s take a look at the result of those sky-high 30 pass attempts in week 5:
The most important stat is the W in the Saints column. There is a chance that they simply lean on the run against an extremely beatable Seahawks team. The Seahawks without Wilson are probably what the Titans would be without Derrick Henry — non-functional. BUT there is also a chance that they continue to try and expand Winston’s role. He’s not a great QB1 start, but given the state of QB he’s better than most.
Jalen Hurts vs the Raiders: I love this kid. Absolutely love his story, his heart, his leadership. But anyone who watched the Thursday night game saw a liability under center for much of the game. He still finished as QB5 in standard ppr, but fantasy doesn’t matter to coaches, GMs, or fans, who are already calling for Flacco. Now, the fans are stupid. Flacco is not the answer. Minshew? Maybe. But putting an aging statue back there is not going to help this team. But they are right that Hurts was not good.
You don’t need advanced passing stats for this one. One glance at this chart and you get how bad it was. 44 yards rushing and two TDs kept fantasy managers happy, but the sell-high window might have passed unless you can find a manager who is only looking at the fantasy points and not the big picture. And I don’t think he’s going to do much better this week, at least not through the air. The Raiders picked off Teddy three times, and are likely to dare Hurts to pass. He’s a shaky start at best and will need to get it done with his legs.
Teddy Bridgewater vs the Browns: Teddy is becoming the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL. How many QB1 performances does he need before being considered a QB1. He threw three picks against the Raiders but also threw 3 scores and over 300. That’s a great fantasy day. The only reason he is this low is he is playing with a foot injury against Myles Garrett, the only Browns starter left standing. Could be a negative game script as well. Still, better than most of the folks below. 280-2 with no ints.
Shaky QB2 Starts
Tua Tagovailoa vs the Falcons: Jesus this kid can not catch a break in fantasy or real life. Tua had a great first game back from injury. His reward? Rumors that he’s going to be traded so Miami can overspend on a guy that may not even play this year or next, or perhaps ever again. Probably just a team-friendly beat writer stirring the pot but still. He completed 70% of his passes for 329 and 2 touchdowns. In what universe is that a bad enough performance to immediately trade him?
Tua I think will silence critics this week. Start with confidence as a high-end QB2 or low-end QB1 and enjoy the 300+ yards and 2 scores once again.
Matt Ryan vs the Dolphins: Let’s just get him in lineups this week. The deep ball is never coming back for Ryan, that part of his game is gone and if you want proof here it is. But he can get it done still with short and intermediate passes to Pitts and Patterson. The Dolphins are a team on the ropes and I don’t think they will put up much resistance. I think Ryan is a solid play this week. I’d predict 280-3-1 on with his longest completion being 18 yards.
Ryan Tannehill vs the Chiefs: Tannehill finally started to break out in the second half against the Bills, hitting multiple deep throws to Brown. He remains a shaky start for multiple reasons, mostly that he is only beginning to find success, has turned in multiple shaky performances, and his offense is basically run by King Henry. He saved his fantasy day with a TD rush, but the rushing upside has not been there this season, as he has only 8 carries in his last three games. Even against a terrible Chiefs defense he’s a shaky QB2 start. I would not start him over guys like Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, or Tua.
Jimmy G vs the Colts: Jimmy G is not an exciting option, but during the Byepocalypse he makes for a great QB2 start. At least he has the motivation of trying to salvage his starting job and gets to play against a beatable Colts secondary (allowing 71% completion percentage). You could do a lot worse.
Mac Jones vs the Jets: I wrote in my waiver wire week 7 column that Jones is a very unexciting prospect this week, as last time he faced the Jets he went for under 200 yards. But Wilson and Jones have both matured somewhat as passers since then, well, Wilson has managed a decent game or two that wasn’t a total embarrassment, and we could see more offensive output. Jones makes for a very risky start as the deep balls are still too few and far between.
Jared Goff: With six teams on bye, Goff should be in your starting lineup in a Superflex or 2QB league simply because narrative. If he’s going to play above his ability this year, big IF, it should be this week. Worth a shot, but don’t start him over anyone with actual talent and a decent team. Narrative doesn’t mean everything. 220-2-1 is likely.
Daniel Jones vs the Panthers: The thing that made Daniel Jones intriguing earlier in the season was his rushing ability. After getting concussed two weeks ago he rushed 3 times for 4 yards last week. He also lost his only interesting weapon in Toney for at least a week. Golladay is still injured and hasn’t done much when healthy. Avoid this dumpster-fire matchup of QBs if you can.
Case Keenum vs the Broncos: Ok, hear me out. Number 1, the Broncos are just not all that good. Over the last three games they are dead last in the league in yards per completion at a whopping 16.1! I don’t care who you are playing that is terrible. They are 8th in the league in completion percentage allowed over the same span, so clearly they are beatable deep. Keenum gets Landry back for this game and Peoples-Jones is playing great ball as well.
Carson Wentz vs 49ers: I refuse to waste time or pixels on this guy. Start if 220-1 is better than your other flex options.
Justin Fields vs the Bucs: This is a positive game script for Fields. The Bears, down to their third string running back, will be forced to allow Fields to show his true potential and he will finally have his breakout game. Sound familiar? That’s because that was the narrative last week, when he faced the exact same situation. The results?
Fields kept throwing to absolutely no one, unless you count Packers defenders. He should have had another interception but it was called back for reasons I protest even as a Bears fan. Fields is just a lot less ready than most of us thought. He has the arm, but the game is too fast for him and he’s making really poor decisions. Not a good start, find a more steady veteran to get you through the bye.
Respect Yourself, You Can Do Better
Sam Darnold vs the Giants: It’s the perennial disappointment bowl! Sam Darnold vs Daniel Jones, who will suck worse? At this point it’s really hard to say, I’m just really glad I own zero shares of these guys. Either one could bust out of their funk and lay down a great game, but I don’t think it’s Darnold this week. He hasn’t had a QBR north of 60 in two weeks and his Darnold spiral will continue. See what I did there? I think you did. Sit with confidence.
Taylor Heinicke vs Green Bay: Heinicke, we hardly knew ye. Hello Ryan Fitzpatrick after this upcoming disaster.
Zach Wilson vs the Patriots: Bill Belichik hates you and wants you to fail. Therefore, you will.
Geno Smith vs New Orleans: It ain’t happening, especially against the Saints. Cam Newton signs next week. Maybe at halftime.
Davis Mills vs Arizona: Honestly I’d rather just make giraffe jokes. I think his neck is taller than Kyler Murray.