Category: Sit/Start

Superflex QB Sit/Start Week 14

UPDATE: Mike Williams is on the COVID list which bumps Herbert down.

Last week I predicted Mahomes would come roaring out of the bye and put up the type of performance we have all come to know, love, and expect from the unquestioned first QB off the board. Obviously I was pretty off. Mahomes finished with just 184 yards and no touchdowns, which put him behind names like Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton, and Taylor Heinicke.

However I feel pretty good about my #2 pick Brady (QB2, 368-4) and #3 pick Kyler Murray (QB1, 123-2, 59-2). Stafford, my QB4 finished as QB5 with 295-3, beaten out by Taysom HIll with 264-2, 101.

This is the last week before the playoffs begin, so getting things right this week is crucial. Let’s take a closer look at our QB Sit/Start decisions for Superflex leagues in week 14.

Obvious QB1 Starts

Dak Prescott vs WFT: WFT is #1 in fantasy points per game allowed to QBs on the year, and while they have improved to middle of the pack since week 8, I still have a feeling this is Dak’s week to finish as QB1. Cooper should be fully healthy and Gallup is back, and the running game just isn’t getting it done, at least as long as the Cowboys keep feeding Zeke.

Josh Allen vs the Bucs: After enduring the wind bowl, Josh gets sunny Tampa and their middle of the pack pass defense. I think an offensive explosion on both sides of the ball is called for after we watched 1950s football in the wind bowl.

Aaron Rodgers vs the Bears: This game is in Lambeau and Rodgers does just own the Bears. He’s 21-5 against the Bears, who are at the bottom of the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Rodgers is on a hot streak, cresting 300 yards and throwing 6 TDs in his last two starts. He makes a fantastic start this week.

Lamar Jackson vs the Browns: His last outing against the Browns wasn’t great (46.5 QBR due to 4 picks) but he righted the ship against Pittsburg and his rushing floor dictates he shouldn’t be much lower than this. Strong start this week.

Kyler Murray vs the Rams: While the Rams are not the defensive stalwart we once thought, they are a much tougher matchup than Chicago. I’d expect more passing from Murray as this game figures to be down to the wire. Maybe one rushing TD but certainly not two.

Tom Brady vs the Bills: The Bills are still one of the toughest defenses in the league and especially hard on quarterbacks. Maybe that had something to do with Mac Jones’s 3 pass attempts on Monday night. I think Brady will have a good game and is a mid-QB1 start this week, but nothing close to last week.

Mathew Stafford vs the Cardinals: Stafford will need several good streaks to match this ranking. Odell clearly is not adding much to this offense and I think Stafford and McVay have realized that force-feeding him targets is not really helping the team. I think another outing of 270-310 yards and 3 touchdowns seems right.

Taysom Hill vs the Jets: I probably have Hill too low again given that he’s going to be running all over the Jets, but his hand injury worries me for his passing output. Very strong start.

Patrick Mahomes vs the Raiders: Mahomes has simply put too much great play on tape to not call him an automatic QB1 start. However, very little of that tape will feature 2021. I feel like another explosion is inevitable, but fear it may not come in time for his owners banking on his greatness for a playoff berth. 230-2 seems about right, which will probably be good for QB10 as long as he sprinkles in a few runs.

Joe Burrow vs the 49ers: If not for a mind-boggling tipped ball interception from Chase, Burrow would have had another 50 yards and a TD added to his 300-1-2 line. One of these weeks it’s going to all pull together for Burrow, but I’m not sure it’s this week. I still think he’s a solid low-end QB1 and a fantastic QB2 if you’re lucky enough to have him and one of the guys above.

Justin Herbert vs the Giants: He’s riding high after a QB3 finish and faces the Giants who have no offense and very little defense. But he’s now most likely without his top two wideouts in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. He still has his tight ends and Ekeler and Jalen Guyton, but this hurts his prospects significantly.

Russell Wilson vs the Texans: Believe it or not the Texans are giving up the fourth fewest fantasy points to QBs since week 9. Not sure why this is, probably because they put up so little fight that most teams can just run out the clock starting in the third quarter. With Davis Mills back under center things should improve for the Texans a little, and Wilson is improving albeit slowly. If this is finally the week they feature Metcalf, he could end up much higher.

Solid QB2 Starts

Jimmy G vs the Bengals

The Bengals defense is floundering especially against the pass. And Jimmy has been playing better ball than you think lately. Always dealing with a changing cast of characters, Jimmy focused on his best receiver in Kittle and put up 299-2-2.

Above average play

I like Jimmy as a strong QB2 this week and based on the day Herbert had, I don’t think the Bengals constitute a huge upgrade in terms of defensive opponent.

Kirk Cousins vs the Steelers

Cousins is about as all over the place, literally. He lined up behind a guard against the 49ers.

Still, in five of his 12 games he has gone for over 300 yards passing, and has four games with 3 TDs. You can’t count him out as a high-end QB2, even on a Thursday night game. The Steelers defense is nothing special, so start with confidence as long as you don’t have two of the QBs listed above.

Derek Carr vs the Chiefs

Normally one would start any viable QB against Mahomes simply out of anticipation of a shoot-out, and Carr is good at those. However, Mahomes is not producing the offense he once did and the Chiefs are actually one of the better defenses in the league, ranking fifth against opposing QBs the since week 8. I don’t have the faith in Carr that I once did, but he’s still a solid QB2 start this week.

Taylor Heinicke vs the Cowboys

This kid needs a nickname, like Headband Johnny or Mr. Fantastic. For now I’m just going to go with Rudy. The kid has plus athleticism and always seems to play above his God-given ability, which is somewhere around the Case Keenum range. Anyway, as good as the Cowboys have been on defense, they actually rank 16th in fantasy points allowed to QBs, so there’s good reason for having Heinicke listed as a solid QB2 start.

Questionable QB2 Starts

Justin Fields vs the Packers

A) it’s the Packers. They just destroy the Bears. B) We don’t know to what degree he is healed from his rib injury. C) Allen Robinson has seemingly played his last down for the Bears and I can’t blame him. But one would hope, emphasis on hope, that faced with a matchup they are almost certain to lose, that Nagy completely takes the reins off and lets Fields use his legs and his cannon of an arm. Mooney can burn the Packers defense, and Kmet has come a long way this season. Fields averaged 7.2 ypc against the Packers in October. Let’s hope he sees way more than the 6 carries he saw then. I’d start Fields against most options at the Superflex unless you have someone like Elijah Moore in that spot.

Ryan Tannehill vs the Jaguars

In his last matchup with the Jags he posted a 108 QBR but only 197 yards passing. Since then Tannehill has been all over the map, and he’s down to some pretty bad options surrounding him. Julio might be back this week, might not (they did activate him off IR). I wouldn’t trust Tannehill for more than about 210-1-2 and if that is good enough to start for your team start away. If you need more I would look at other options.

Teddy Bridgewater vs the Saints

Is there a player more boring than Teddy? I don’t think so. You’re practically guaranteed something between 200-250 yards and maybe a score. He plays Detroit who should be good for some easy points but they may have a fire lit under them after their first win. Not a great start but likely better than most flex options at other positions.

Zach Wilson vs the Saints

The burgeoning connection with Elijah Moore is great news for Wilson and his owners. He’s still, at best, a barely startable QB, BUT the Saints are ranked dead last over the past five weeks in fpa to QBs. So he’s a hold your nose start this week.

Abandon All Hope, Ye Who Start These QBs

Gentle Ben vs the Vikings: 🤢 🤮

Baker Mayfield vs the Ravens: 🤕

Jared Goff vs the Broncos: 😂

Matt Ryan vs the Panthers: 🥶

Trevor Lawrence vs the Titans: 😭

Davis Mills vs the Seahawks: 🦒

Cam Newton vs the Falcons: 🤡

Jake Fromm vs the Chargers: 👶🏻

Superflex Quarterback Sit/Start Week 12

Week 11 saw Justin Herbert explode out of his funk to a number 1 QB finish after throwing for 382 yards and three touchdowns while adding 90 yards on the ground. The rushing output was unexpected and likely not a trend.

Hurts was top-five with his three rushing touchdowns, and Trevor Siemian made top five with his three passing TDs.

Mahomes came back to earth with a QB26 finish with just over 200 yards passing and no touchdowns.

Our superflex quarterback sit/start for week 12 is going to be a bit truncated due to the holiday schedule, but there’s also a lot less to figure out at this point in the season.

Obvious QB1 Starts for Week 12

Justin Herbert vs the Broncos: Denver is giving up 1.7 TDs per game the last three and just don’t seem like a formidable defense. No reason to think that then Bolts don’t continue clicking this week.

Josh Allen vs the Saints: New Orleans is middle of the pack in passing yards allowed and the Bills are humming.

Tom Brady vs the Colts: Brady went over 300 yards last week but was a little lacking in the touchdown department. The Colts are not great against the pass and Brady should take advantage.

Aaron Rodgers vs the Rams: Rodgers came back to life last week with 300+ yards, and should be able to pass at will against the Rams who find themselves struggling for an identity coming out of their bye.

Matthew Stafford vs the Packers: Green Bay is only giving up around 200 pass yards a game over their last three, but just surrendered 318 to Kirk Cousins. Stafford should be able to take advantage provided the Rams aren’t immediately put in a negative script. Expect the Rams to lean more heavily on the run game even though the Packers have stiffened against the run as of late (3.5 ypc, 3.1 against the Vikings).

Lamar Jackson vs the Browns: Browns are giving up 5.5 ypc to opponents over their last three. Lamar and the Ravens have been off, maybe they get right in this divisional matchup.

Jalen Hurts vs the Giants: The last time these teams played the Eagles controlled the game throughout and Hurts was not asked to do much at all as a passer. I see something similar but with Hurts getting at least one score rushing and one passing.

Dak Prescott vs the Raiders: No quarterback has been less consistent than Dak, who had a terrible game last week against the Chiefs. The Chiefs defense has been one of the most improved in the NFL over the past six weeks, but Dak needs to find a groove. Thanksgiving day games are usually good for the Cowboys so maybe this is an up week.

Kirk Cousins vs the 49ers: Cousins just ripped the Packers for 300+ yards, and the Packers are a better defense than the 49ers. Cousins has had two above average performances in a row.

Joe Burrow vs the Steelers: The Bengals won their first meeting largely on the ground, and if the Steelers don’t put up more of a fight this could be another Mixon game at the expense of Burrow and the receivers. But I think Tomlin gets the Steelers up for this one and Burrow has to pass in the second half to win.

Russell Wilson vs the WFT: Wilson likely came back too early and has not played well. I think he improves this game and gets a score with his legs.

Derek Carr vs the Cowboys: Tough opponent but Carr and the Raiders can still manage a powerful offense when they want to. Their running game is stuck in the mud so if they want to compete it will have to be on the shoulders of Carr and Waller.

Solid QB2 Superflex Starts Week 12

Ryan Tannehill vs the Patriots: Going against the hottest defense in the league, but Tannehill is heating up and could at least get 250 and 2 scores. In the 2021 QB market that’s good enough to start as a low-end QB1 or high-end QB2.

Cam Newton vs the Dolphins: As expected almost all of Cam’s value comes on the ground. Miami is giving up 4.6 yards per carry but no rushing touchdowns over their last three games. Cam needs to break that trend to have another top-ten week.

Tua Tagovailoa vs the Panthers: Tua looked much more himself against the Jets throwing for 273 and two touchdowns. The Panthers are a much tougher matchup but I still think he is better than the rest of the options at QB2.

Tyrod Taylor vs the Jets: Taylor’s rushing floor makes him deserving of a QB2 spot despite almost no passing production. If you play in leagues with yardage bonuses he is not a recommended play.

Taylor Heinicke vs the Seahawks: The Seattle defense is good at exactly nothing. Heinicke seems to gut out a QB2 performance every week and I don’t see any reason to think the Seahawks will stop him. The porous WFT defense is still ok at stopping the run which is 98% of Seattle’s offense, so time of possession should not be an issue. Fire him up as a midrange QB2.

Jimmy G vs the Vikings: Two straight under 200 passing, Jimmy is just not an exciting option but at least provides a fairly stable floor of about 180 and 2.

Mac Jones vs the Titans: Speaking of unexciting, Mac Jones is the poster boy. Always good for an ugly win, almost never good for a box score, he’s the exact opposite of Jalen Hurts. 223 and 1 is likely.

Sit These QBs in Superflex if You Can

It’s impossible to know the other positions that could slot in or your scoring system, but the below QBs should be sat if possible for better skill player options

Carson Wentz vs the Bucs: Wentz is terrible, as we all know. He adds nothing to his offense and I don’t expect much improvement over last week’s putrid stat line.

Daniel Jones vs the Eagles: Most experiments don’t give absolutely definitive results. The Daniel Jones experiment has. It’s a massive failure.

Teddy Bridgewater: Has settled into the level of performance that kept him from getting starting jobs in New Orleans and Carolina.

Zach Wilson vs the Texans: Probably the only QB out of this group possibly deserving of a start in a Superflex spot, but even against a bad team with a wide receiver going off, we shouldn’t expect much from this kid.

Ben Roethlisberger: The Berger is cooked.

Andy Dalton vs the Lions: Captain checkdown won’t do much, even against one of the league’s worst defenses.

Matt Ryan vs the Jaguars: The Falcons can make any defense look like world-beaters. Smith is totally out of his depth.

Trevor Lawrence vs the Falcons: The only question remaining is whether Urban Meyer has done permanent or only temporary damage.

Baker Mayfield vs the Ravens: Surely Case Keenum would be a better solution at this point?

Trevor Siemian vs the Bills: Wheels started to come off last week, they will fly off against the league’s best defense.

Tim Boyle vs the Bears: Barely a starter and against the Bears on a short week.

Superflex QB Sit/Start Week 11

Disclaimer: this article is being written by someone in the grips of sick brain, so please take all advice with appropriate grains of salt.

Week 10 saw some normalcy return to the NFL: Patrick Mahomes threw for 400 yards and 5 TDs: buy-low window decisively slammed shut on your greedy fingers. Josh Allen once again looked superhuman, throwing bombs against the Jets at will and locking on to Stephon Diggs. Matt Ryan once again looked like a scared little girl, Trevor Lawrence is in danger of being permanently broken by the dysfunctional man-child known as Urban Meyer.

One anomaly from week 9 that the NFL universe declined to right was the Rams being pushovers against tough defenses that beseige the quarterback. Matt Stafford was again subpar, although his first pick was definitely caused by Odell Beckham quitting on a route in his first game. I don’t see Odell as a positive for this team and surfaced these concerns as I poured boiling water down the sink (props to @cooterdoodle).

Anyway, since distinguishing causation and correlation is passé, let’s just say that Odell is a cancer and that’s why the Rams lost again, not that McVay can’t figure out how to respond to the type of defense that Vrabel and Shanahan threw at him. Because he’s a genius folks. GENIUS.

Let’s get down to the QB Sit/Start analysis for week 11.

Obvious Superflex QB1 Starts Week 11

Tom Brady vs the Giants: Because Brady, and because it’s the Giants.

Josh Allen vs the Colts: Are the Colts good? Yes. Will it matter? NO.

Lamar Jackson vs the Bears: Last time we saw the Bears they actually put up a pretty decent fight against the Steelers. Hopefully no one postures too hard at the Ravens sideline. The NFL is a freaking joke.

Patrick Mahomes vs the Cowboys: Jekyll and Hyde defense, but Mahomes is rolling as soon as I declared him a questionable start last week.

Dak Prescott vs the Chiefs: The Chiefs defense still sucks, and Dak looks right after his week 9 vortex of the absurd game.

Kyler Murray vs the Seahawks: Two weeks to rest a tweaked ankle should be plenty. I’d imagine Kyler is amped for this NFC West battle.

Aaron Rodgers vs the Vikings: The opposite of the Samson effect, his hippie-dipshit girlfriend got him to grow out his hair and sapped his strength. Barely a QB1 this year.

Joe Burrow vs the Raiders: Burrow had a terrible two-week stretch prior to the bye, though week 9 (of course) was more a case of one bad interception and some really bad drops. Expect a much better performance.

Jalen Hurts vs the Saints: I believe Hurts is good at real football, and think he just needs a little time to transition his game. Saints are good against the run so he might have to resort to actually throwing the ball, which I think he can do.

Russell Wilson vs the Cardinals: The big question is how hurt is he going into this one, and how badly will Carrol’s stone-age offense hold him back. Check injury reports on the former, we already know the latter.

Justin Herbert vs the Steelers: Will someone please get this kid some strawberries and a battleship? Herbert has been pretty awful his last two and the Steelers are no slouch.

Ryan Tannehill vs the Texans: Tannehill has two top 10 QB finishes, so you can trust him to finish in the top 12 against the Texans who barely qualify as a football team. Regardless who starts for the Texans expect Tannehill to be gifted great field position at least a couple times via interceptions.

Risky But Worth-It Superflex QB2 Starts

Derek Carr vs the Bengals

Almost always good for around 300 yards, the big question around Carr is where are the TDs? Only 5 across his last three games. He really needs to get his tunnel-vision connection with Waller back going, but even without he remains the top of the QB2 heap with QB1 upside. Start with confidence.

Justin Fields vs the Ravens

Fields is really coming along, and actually managed to pull a decent game out of the week 9 vortex of suck. His lone interception was basically a batted pass that feel into the defender’s arms. The Ravens are not an especially strong defense this year, and dare I say it, the Bears could be on an upswing. I think Fields is one of the stronger QB2 starts this week with QB1 upside due to his rushing floor, which is averaging about 60 yards his last 4 games.

Cam “Grandmama” Newton vs WFT

Cam didn’t really provide enough passing work to evaluate last week but he did score two TDs, one on the ground, so we know that we can at least rely on his vulture points. I expect something like 180 passing, 56 rushing, and two TDs of each variety. I also expect Christian McCaffrey owners to pull their hair out, but at least he won’t be killing every single drive like his predecessor The #DarnoldSpiral. Start without confidence.

Grandmama style for days…

Mac Jones vs the Falcons

Jones is basically the opposite of Jalen Hurts: a great real-life QB who is spotty, at best, at fantasy. Either he gets yards without TDs or TDs without yards, as Belichik is committed to ugly wins this year. I think Jones will develop into a QB1 with his skillset, but not this year. He does make for a solid QB2 start this week against an extremely inept and uber-conservative Falcons team. Mid-range QB2 start.

Carson Wentz vs the Bills

A friend of mine offered to write an article for my new fantasy site. Here it is:

It’s humorous that A) Wentz has not, in fact, been dog-shit lately and B) He is on this same friend’s team, but this week against the Bills I think we can expect him to be close to that. The Bills are just killers on opposing QBs, just ask Mike White. I think Wentz will be sub-250 passing and maybe just one TD. Start with caution, but he’s better than a lot of the other crap out there.

Kirk Cousins vs Green Bay

Cousins has turned in two straight top-10 performances (7 and 9) the last two weeks, and almost cracked 3-hundo last week, but I have a feeling things will be different against Green Bay. They managed to keep Mahomes in his funk, and are third in the league in allowed passing yards per game. I don’t see a big game from Cousins against the Packers, probably more of a Cook game.

Tua Tagovailoa vs the Jets

Tua marks the last of the viable QB2 starters, and I would check injury reports. He did not look right coming in for Brissett last week, fluttering several passes badly. The Jets constitute the resistance of a thrice-used condom in the passing game, so even with a gimpy hand he can probably score more than the rest of the pack here.

Trevor Siemian vs the Eagles

OK, so the guy has strung together some good games and he’s starting over Hill for a reason, maybe other than Hill sucking bad enough at QB to lose a job to Jameis Winston. You can’t really argue with 298 and 2 off the waiver wire late in the season, but he’s done this for stretches before and the wheels came off suddenly and drastically. Seems like even the Eagles could take advantage of him. But probably an ok QB2 start.

Sit These Guys in Superflex for Better Options

Joe Flacco vs the Dolphins: A better option for the desperate than those below, likely available on your WW right now, Joe will still struggle against the Miami pass rush that has found its footing in the past few weeks.

Ben Roethlisberger/Mason Rudolph vs the Chargers: They are basically the same racist player at this point, and neither will do well against the Chargers.

Matt Ryan vs New England: Possibly no Cordarelle Patterson which leaves Pitts the only weapon Belichik will have to focus on taking away. The Falcons are falling apart on the gimpy withered arm of Ryan.

Taylor Heinicke vs the Panthers: 4 TDs over his last four games, the Panthers pass rush is going to eat this guy alive.

Baker Mayfield vs the Lions: This guy is held together by duct-tape at this point. Not even the Lions could make him a good start.

Trevor Lawrence vs the 49ers: We all just saw what the Niners D did to Stafford right? Yeah, bench.

Daniel Jones vs the Bucs: Can we declare this a failed experiment yet? Seeing nods all around, ok. Failed experiment. Next.

Tyrod Taylor: Few debuts were more disappointing than his three-interception, five-sack disaster.

Jared Goff vs the Browns: One touchdown over his last five games, 114 yards passing last week. Time to see what Blough can do.

Superflex QB Sit/Start Week 10

After week 9 I’m not going to even pretend I know what’s going on any more. Here are the top five scoring QBs from week 9 in order: Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Matt Ryan, Josh Johnson, and Carson Wentz. Josh Allen was 20th. Patrick Mahomes was 22nd and Joe Burrow was 23rd. All three finished behind Jordan Love in his first career start.

Anyone who says they saw week 9 coming is completely full of it. Show me one guy who had Josh Johnson in their top five and Josh Allen out of the top ten (against the Jaguars!)

Weeks like week 9 should cause all of us to start examining our assumptions, not about individual players necessarily, but about the point of even trying to prognosticate this stuff. And maybe some individual players, like Mahomes and potentially Burrow.

Looking into the EPA+CPOE composite scores of weeks 4-8, there was definitely some warning on Mahomes, but not so much on Allen, Stafford, or Burrow, who both cratered in week 9 against middling opponents. Ryan and Wentz, who both finished top-five against good and bad defenses respectively, were both in the top ten of this metric weeks 4-8.

PlayerEPA+CPOE composite
1M.Stafford0.199
2J.Allen0.194
3T.Brady0.166
4R.Tannehill0.165
5K.Murray0.161
6J.Burrow0.155
7Aa.Rodgers0.151
8M.Ryan0.150
9M.Jones0.138
10C.Wentz0.133
11L.Jackson0.130
12T.Tagovailoa0.120
13D.Carr0.110
14P.Mahomes0.108
15T.Bridgewater0.098
16J.Hurts0.072
17B.Roethlisberger0.066
18T.Lawrence0.065
19K.Cousins0.051
20J.Fields0.051
21B.Mayfield0.032
22D.Mills0.031
23T.Heinicke0.027
24J.Goff0.023
25J.Herbert0.023
26D.Jones0.022
27S.Darnold-0.025

If we take a look at a smaller sample of weeks 6-8, we see Stafford stay at the top, Allen slip a little, Burrow move up, Ryan and Wentz crater (after all, Ryan had a disastrous week 8 and Wentz is always inconsistent), and Mahomes stay right around the middle of the league.

PlayerEPA+CPOE composite
1M.Stafford0.234
2R.Tannehill0.217
3J.Allen0.180
4Aa.Rodgers0.159
5J.Burrow0.152
6T.Brady0.149
7K.Murray0.141
8M.White0.125
9T.Bridgewater0.123
10T.Tagovailoa0.120
11M.Jones0.103
12K.Cousins0.096
13G.Smith0.087
14P.Mahomes0.071
15B.Roethlisberger0.067
16J.Hurts0.061
17C.Wentz0.059
18M.Ryan0.056
19D.Mills0.039
20J.Fields0.037
21J.Goff0.024
22T.Lawrence0.020
23T.Heinicke0.010
24L.Jackson0.009
25D.Jones0.001
26J.Herbert-0.052
27S.Darnold-0.054

So other than Mahomes, there really weren’t any major warning flags on these players who unexpectedly delivered duds week 9 against lesser opponents. I do believe that the Titans and Jaguars defenses have improved some, but they did not all the sudden become world-beaters overnight. Week 9 unusually high variance on quarterbacks and pass-catchers was likely just that, an unusually high variance. So the best thing is not to overreact to this and expect a basic regression to the mean here. After all, do we really expect Colt McCoy, Baker Mayfield and Matt Ryan to dominate the position for the rest of the season as they did in week 9?

Obvious QB1 Starts in Superflex

Lamar Jackson vs the Dolphins: No reason not to put him at the top spot this week given his rushing floor is elevating every week. The Dolphins defense is nothing to be scared of.

Josh Allen vs the Jets: The Jets just put Carson Wentz in the top five. Given the info above we can safely chalk up week 9 against the Jags to an aberration and confidently start Allen this week in a plus matchup.

Tom Brady vs the WFT: Absolutely no reason Tom should not continue his dominant season against this pass-funnel defense.

Justin Herbert vs the Vikings: Herbert was one of the few top-flight QBs along with Jackson to survive the week 9 purge. After a momentary dip in the standings Herbert is once again playing great ball. Minnesota is bottom 10 in passing yards allowed per game in their past three contests.

Matt Stafford vs the 49ers: Stafford should be fine following his week 9 disaster against the Titans. The Rams need to pass less and run more, which could dampen his fantasy outlook this week.

Kyler Murray vs the Panthers: Panthers have been playing great in their past three against the pass, but that has come against Daniel Jones, Matt Ryan, and Mac Jones. Fire Murray up as long as he is healthy.

Derek Carr vs the Chiefs: Carr is still throwing a ton (46 attempts last game) and just needs to find Waller in the end zone more to be a top-five QB this week. Should be doable against the Chiefs who are giving up 1.7 passing TDs in their last three, and that includes games against Jordan Love and Daniel Jones.

Questionable QB Starts in Superflex

Patrick Mahomes vs the Raiders

Yes, we have reached that point. As we saw above, Mahome’s predictive metrics have been middle of the league since week 4. He finished outside the top 20 last week. He finished outside the top 15 in week 8. He finished outside the top 20 in week 7. Something is not right. If you haven’t already notified your league that he is available for trade, it might not be too late to do so. His name recognition alone can probably net you someone like Burrow or Herbert.

Mahomes in 2021 is average, at best

Now, there is always the possibility that things just click and he gets back to his earlier season form. But there’s no denying that Mahomes over the past 5 weeks has been at or below average, which is unacceptable given his draft capital. Would I bench Mahomes for a lesser QB? No, even though I think the probability of him finishing outside the top 20 once again is about 30%. I’d put the probability of him finishing top five at about 10%. But if you somehow have Josh Allen and David Carr, yeah I would bench him until he turns things around.

Russel Wilson vs the Packers

I think Russ is a fairly safe start in his first game back from IR, but he’s not automatic. He’s not a volume passer. He plays in the most conservative, old-school offense in the league and I don’t think that will change until Carrol is shown the door. The Packers are only giving up .7 TDs in their last three. So his own offense is working against a big yardage total, and he’s playing a team that isn’t giving up passing touchdowns in big numbers. I think he’s absolutely a solid QB2 but not a slam-dunk QB1 this week.

Jalen Hurts vs the Broncos

The Jalen Hurts mystery continues. We know he’s good at fantasy football. But is he good at real football? He’s probably good enough to finish out the season as the Eagles starter. After that I think it’s fair to expect the Eagles to at least bring in healthy competition next year. He hasn’t gone for over 300 yards since week 4. He did get a QBR north of 100 last week despite a down fantasy day.

Week 9 only 17 attempts

His stats show the obvious: his team is trying to win keeping the ball on the ground and out of the air. They’ve accepted that he’s not going to be an accurate pocket passer and are embracing the run. This makes a lot of sense going against the Broncos who are giving up 5.1 ypc over their last three. A solid QB2 but unlikely to hit quality passing yardage.

Carson Wentz vs the Jaguars

God I hate to admit this but the charts don’t lie: over the past 5 weeks Wentz has been an above average QB. The Jaguars are a plus matchup giving up 71% completion rate to opposing QBs over their last three. Wentz should be a solid start again this week.

Dak Prescott vs the Falcons

Dak looked more than off last week. He looked absolutely terrible.

Dak’s Week 9 – deep ball was off

Given that he was just coming back from a calf injury, and before that a shoulder injury, and before that a season-ending ankle injury, it’s fair to wonder if the injuries are not mounting up and messing with his throwing motion, confidence, or both. Dak is another guy you might look at moving while his name recognition is still high. Prior to last week Denver looked absolutely beatable through the air, just like the Falcons do now.

Matt Ryan vs the Cowboys

Ugh, Matt Ryan. Turned in a couple good games before the bye, came back from the bye totally limp, then managed another good game while throwing two touchdowns to Zacheus. Ryan is taking what the defense gives him, and if that means ignoring Pitts and zeroing in on a no-name player he’s doing that all day. Diggs will likely play on Pitts, meaning it’s another dink and dunk day for Ryan, and it will probably be good enough for a top-15 finish.

Teddy Bridgewater vs the Eagles

Steady Teddy is back, not overwhelming, not underwhelming. Likely a safe bet against the Eagles, who are giving up 1.3 passing touchdowns in their last three. He threw for 249-1 against the Cowboys and I would expect similar numbers, possibly an extra touchdown.

Kirk Cousins vs the Chargers

The Chargers are an incredibly tough defense to pass against, so expect Dalvin Cook to shoulder most of the load here. Cousins is under 200 yards passing in his last two outings, both coming against defensively inferior opponents (Ravens and Cowboys). He’s still capable of throwing deep as evidenced last week, but there isn’t enough volume, and his intended air yards per attempt are down to 6.8 after averaging 8 last year.

Mike White vs the Bills

The only defense outperforming the Chargers against the pass are the Bills. This makes White’s third start a dicey one, but he might be the only QB on the bottom half of QB2 status who is a real threat to throw for 300+ yards. His encore was cut short last week with a forearm injury, so this will be his follow-up from his blowup game where he threw for 400+ yards. Elijah Moore’s emergence in week 9 bodes well, but owners should temper their expectations and play more established threats at the position if they have them.

Ryan Tannehill vs the Saints

Despite a decisive victory against the Rams and no Derrick Henry, Tannehill had a very subpar game with 143-1-1. Very on-script for week 9. HIs prior two games were much better, eclipsing 250 yards passing in each, but Tannehill seems to always remind us that he’s difficult to trust even as a QB2. The Saints should be a better matchup for him, averaging 270 passing yards allowed over their last 3 and giving up 332 to Matt Ryan.

Jimmy G/Trey Lance vs the Rams

Honestly I have no idea who will end up starting or finishing this game for the 49ers and we are unlikely to get any indication before Saturday. If its Jimmy G, expect low passing numbers but an efficient game. If it’s Lance, expect a decent rushing floor (like 45 yards) and multiple sacks and picks. Either way it’s a desperation play and not a recommended start.

Baker Mayfield vs the Patriots

Good for an efficient 235 and 2 most weeks, just not someone who will help win your week but not someone who will lose it either. Low-end QB2, should deliver more points than most flex options.

Taylor Heinicke vs the Bucs

The last and least of the viable QB2 options, just don’t start him thinking the Bucs are still a pushover in the passing game. Over their last three they are surrendering only 163 passing yards per game, good for second in the league.

QB Sits in Superflex

Tua/Brissett vs the Ravens: If it’s Tua he bumps up to a mid-range QB2 option but it’s not sounding promising as of Wednesday.

Goff vs the Steelers: Not a starting option even in Superflex.

Big Ben vs the Lions: Arm is cooked, same as every other week.

Mac Jones vs the Browns: The Patriots are trying to win dirty and this leads to very mediocre stat lines from Jones. If both Harris and Stevenson sit with concussions, he could be serviceable as a QB2.

PJ Walker vs the Cardinals: Going against the Cardinals pass rush is not how you want to start your NFL career.

Trevor Lawrence vs the Colts: I still have hope for this kid, but not until Meyer is fired.

Sit Start Week 9

If you are looking for my QB sit/start I do a separate in-depth article for superflex leagues here. This is dedicated to the other skill positions.

Also, this column is by no means a ranking, or should be taken as me recommending to start the guys in the start section over the guys in the sit section. It’s instead an educated guess as to what players will outperform expectations vs guys that will underperform expectations.

I try to only place players in the start column that have at least significant question marks either due to poor performance or low capital. Similarly I put guys in the sit column that most fantasy managers would start most weeks.

With that stated let’s get into who to start and who to sit for week 9.

Running Back Starts

Nick Chubb at the Bengals

Chubb did not please many managers in his return to the lineup, scoring roughly as many fantasy points as his backfield mate D’Ernest Johnson. His ypc was low and he was kept out of the end zone. This was not an unforeseeable event as he was playing a good defense and was just returning from a calf injury. I think he improves vastly against the Bengals who just allowed Michael Carter to average 5.1 ypc on his way to 77 rushing yards and a score. Chubb will not see receiving work, that goes to Johnson, but with the Cleveland passing game I expect the Browns to lean on him and Johnson to control the clock and keep Burrow and Chase off the field.

Michael Carter at the Colts

Why not believe in the Jets? Carter thrived with Mike White under center throwing underneath routes and had 14 targets. With absolutely no model of success other than the last game, I can’t see why Saleh would try and do anything differently. Carter is on the rise and playing him, even on a short week against a decent run defense.

Derrick Gore vs the Packers

Gore should be nothing more than a flex play as he is still splitting carries with Darrell Williams, but I think he can make the most out of few opportunities with his north-south running style. He’s more effective between the tackles than Darrell Williams and I think 60 yards and a score are not unreasonable expectations.

Damien Harris at the Panthers

The Panthers have the feel of being a good defense, but they’re nothing special against the run, something the Patriots absolutely want to be key to winning games. The Panthers are allowing 4.4 ypc to opposing backs over their last three. Don’t be discouraged by their FPA status (top 10) which includes their early season dominance. Just last week Mike Davis and Cordarelle Patterson had good days against them despite only seeing 9 carries a piece.

Running Back Sits

Jeremy McNichols at the Rams

Right now we just don’t know what will come out of the Titans rushing attack without Henry. McNichols could see 15 carries, he could see 3. He should retain all passing down work, but there are too many unknowns to insert him into lineups. Bench blowups may hurt mentally but they don’t hurt your fantasy team – doughnuts do.

Zack Moss at the Jaguars

It pains me to put him here as I am starting him in my big money league and I hope I’m wrong, but his ypc has been atrocious in his last three games (3.4, 3, 2.4). He is augmenting it with receiving work, but not enough to offset those pitiful averages that came against Kansas City, Tennessee and Miami. The matchup against the Jags may appear salivating, but they are really no worse against the run than his last three opponents.

Tony Pollard vs the Broncos

It’s funny how memory works. We probably all remember his herculean effort week 2 (13-109-1, 3-31) against the Chargers more than we remember his last two games. Probably because those performances were forgettable. The Broncos have become one of the worst defenses in the league against the run, but I think that just makes this a good week for Zeke, not Pollard.

Khalil Herbert at the Steelers

This was already a tough matchup for the rookie and one in which the Bears offense will struggle to stay on the field, but news just broke that Montgomery is off IR, practicing, and coaches are looking to get his feet wet in this game. With what should be precious few offensive opportunities, that makes Herbert a risky start at best.

Wide Receiver Starts

Stefon Diggs at the Jaguars

Before you do a double take, note that over the past 4 weeks Diggs is WR24 in average points per game. I am putting him here because I think he is an absolute must start against the Jags, as in my projected WR4 for the week. Just ask anyone who benched Lockett against them last week. Diggs and Lockett have similar profiles and I think Diggs could win your week. Get him in.

Brandin Cooks at the Dolphins

Tyrod is back meaning the QB-proof Cooks gets a significant upgrade at QB this week. I have him as WR20 which is probably way too low. Miami is allowing an average of almost 300 passing yards per game over their last three.

Michael Pittman vs the Jets

The Jets gave up a big game to Tee Higgins last week and I actually think this will be a high-scoring affair. Thursday nights have not been as scary for fantasy this year and I think Pittman will come up huge against the Jets secondary. Who by the way are allowing a league-high 341 passing yards per game over their last three. Pittman is my WR9 for the week.

Van Jefferson vs the Titans

Van Jefferson is now essentially outplaying Robert Woods. Though his targets are still low his snap-share is sky high. He barely leaves the field. Just think of him as Stafford’s WR2 and now think if you would even consider benching him.

Wide Receiver Sits

De’Andre Hopkins at the 49ers

Murray’s hurt. He’s hurt. This is not the week to play Hopkins if you have better options. I have him as my WR18 this week.

Jerry Jeudy at the Cowboys

Who wants to bet that Travon Diggs doesn’t blanket his former teammate? I don’t. With the passing game stalling out and the whole team circling the drain, this is not the week to try and extract value from your mid-round pick.

Devonta Smith vs the Chargers

The Chargers are good against the pass and bad against the run. Strike one. Smith is an excellent, timing-based route technician. Does that sound like the best fit for Jalen Hurts? Strike two. Hurts has appeared at best erratic the past four weeks as a passer. Strike three. Sit Devonta this week.

Robert Woods vs the Titans

Normally you play everyone against the Titans, and normally you play all the Rams, but see Van Jefferson above. If not for his TD last week his owners would be running for the Hills. He caught only 3 of 9 targets for 35 yards, while Jefferson caught 3 of 6 for 88 yards. I think this is the week we see the changing of the guard at WR2 in Los Angeles.

Tight End Starts

Mike Gesicki vs the Texans

People might have been scared off by his near dud last week. Don’t be. They were playing the Bills who are basically the best pass defense in the league by most metrics. This week he gets to feast on Houston, allowing the 4th most points to tight ends in the league. Even Higbee got into the act against them as the 4th or 5th passing option on the Rams, catching all 3 of his targets.

CJ Uzomah vs the Browns

I don’t see this as a low-scoring affair and think multiple Bengals pass-catchers will get into the act, including CJ. His targets are sparse at best but the Browns will not be focusing on him, meaning he should get open often. If I’m Stefanski I concentrate safety coverage on Chase while focusing man-to-man on Higgins and Boyd. Look for a high-efficiency game that includes a score.

Tight End Sits

Mark Andrews vs the Vikings

I started writing about sitting Pitts but realized I just couldn’t recommend sitting him. So I’m picking on another talented tight end, Mark Andrews. Andrews had a dud (for him) against Cincy two weeks ago with 48 scoreless yards. Minnesota is better than Cincy against tight ends giving up only 5.2 fantasy points this year. I think he will disappoint again this week.

Dallas Goedert vs the Chargers

Goedert is getting a ridiculous target share since Ertz left, but the problem is in that same period the Eagles have the lowest pass attempts in the league. I think they stick with the ground game again which is of course what the Chargers defense wants. Staley is no dummy.

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