Category: Preseason

Preseason Week 2 Overreactions and Underreactions

Should we watch? Does it matter? It seems that all we need is to be one-year removed from preseason to completely forget how to deal with it.

There isn’t a formula but there are things to watch for. And you have to know what you are watching for. As Cecil Lammey says, the games don’t count but they do matter. Here are my overreactions (things that don’t matter but appear to) and underreactions (things that might matter but go unnoticed or underreported) from week 2.

Overreactions

Ja’Maar Chase Can’t Catch

Credit: PFT

Three drops. Two which he should have caught. And next thing you know he’s been benched for Auden Tate and will never be a good pro in the NFL.

Chase has been a year removed from real football and will likely have some rookie mistakes, but this 1-day saga is a good example of why twitter starts revolutions. He’ll be fine, and likely end up as the top rookie wide receiver. Burrow would have never been Burrow without Chase.

Lance is a Greek God and Should Have Started for the Niners Last Year

As a Bears fan I get it, well, maybe better to say that Niners fans are incredibly spoiled but I still get it. He’s there, he’s obviously more skilled than the veteran in front of him, and everyone wants him out there week 1 to begin a superbowl run and blow up fantasy box scores.

As talented as Lance appears to be, he’s having some struggles against vanilla preseason defenses. The fantasy community needs to pump the breaks given the Niners schedule starts with the Lions, Eagles, Packers, Seahawks, and Cardinals.

Andy Dalton is Enemy Number 1 in Chicago

Same basic problem, but unlike Garroppolo, Dalton actually looked pretty good in week 2. If Dalton starts well into the season, it may not be because Matt Nagy hates his job.

Dalton was the victim of a twitter meme-storm when he made a completely innocuous comment saying that as long as he was the starter that it was his job. Imagine the nerve

Underreactions

Zach Wilson Might be the Rookie QB to Own in Redraft

Credit: Bleacher Report

While no one was looking, Zach Wilson absolutely balled out this weekend, focusing on Corey Davis and making accurate zip throws all over the field. 9/11 for 128 and two TDs. Now I will say I didn’t see too much pressure in his face, playing against Packers 2s, but he’s impressed me more than I thought he would.

Wilson just went undrafted in my big money superflex league, though we have strict 2-QB roster limits. Still, seeing his game, I feel like my 7th round pick of Matt Ryan was way too early.

Terrace Marshall Could Be WR2 in Carolina

This guy is getting noticed but still available in a lot of shallow leagues just due to the fact that no one really knows what to expect from Darnold. Marshall comes from a school in LSU that regularly produces super stars in this league (Justin Jefferson, Odell Beckham), and showed good separation and hands in preseason week 2.

I’ve heard Darnold favors the slot, but it’s not really backed up by the numbers. But one thing that could back up Marshall deserving more notice is that Robby Anderson had some significant multi-game droughts with Darnold in New York in 2019 when they were both there together. If there is a lack of chemistry with Robbie Anderson, Terrace Marshall would be the likely beneficiary.

Bears O-Line Is in Trouble

Second round pick Tevin Jenkins needs back surgery and will miss the season. Rashaad Cowan and Bobby Massie walked in free agency. And the Bears offensive line looked particularly awful against the Bills. I’d downtick David Montgomery and the entire offense a bit, including Fields.

Rodney Adams Could by the WR3 in Chicago

Is that exciting? Probably not for anything but dynasty and really deep (or wide) redraft leagues. But he looked great and made another amazing catch for a 63-yard touchdown, catching the ball over the opposing defender’s helmet. No one else on that team has been making plays like that for the Bears.

J.D. McKissic Could Have the Same Role

McKissic saw plenty of run on third down with WFT’s starters, meaning he could be a value in deep PPR leagues, probably more than trendy picks like Giovanni Bernard and James White.

Looking Ahead

Most teams have treated preseason like tryouts, but next week we should get longer looks at starting lineups.

QB Battles Winners and Losers

After only one week of preseason it’s too early to call, but drafts are happening and have been happening, so one week might be the best data set you have to work with.

Superflex and 2QB leagues mean that every week 20-24 QBs are starting, and for those without roster limits, usually every starting QB is rostered. Let’s take a quick look at what we saw in preseason week 1 and see if that gives us any edge on predicting the eventual winner, which in many cases may not be the week 1 starter.

Fields vs Dalton, Bears

Winner: Fields

I watched every snap for both QBs and while Fields looked very much like a rookie, almost fumbling his first carry and taking a bit too long to release a throw in the end zone, he avoided any major mistakes in the first half, and tightened up considerably toward the end. His throws were accurate, and the game did not seem too big for him.

In the second half he really started to shine, obviously more comfortable (though playing against worse competition). He showcased his speed on a run to the sideline where he accelerated and picked up an extra 7-10 yards, outrunning a couple Dolphin defenders.

Loser: Nagy’s False Equivalency

Matt Nagy for some reason has clung to the example of Alex Smith and Pat Mahomes like it is some iron-clad formula for success that is applicable to any context. Here are some major differences:

  • Alex Smith was better then than Dalton is now
  • Andy Reid was not in danger of losing his job as Nagy is now

Plus, are we really to suffer under the assumption that Mahomes is looking like potentially the greatest QB of all time just because he sat behind Alex Smith for almost a full season? He put up video game numbers in college. He blew up the preseason his rookie year. This is one of the worst forms of mistaking correlation for causation I have ever seen.

When making the decision of starting a rookie QB, only two questions matter: Does starting the rookie give you a better chance to win now? Undoubtedly yes. Will starting the rookie negatively impact your chances to win later? Fields gave us no reason to think so.

Mac Jones vs Cam Newton, Patriots

Credit: Pats Pulpit

Winner: Mac Jones

The stats were in Mac’s favor, and they don’t even begin to tell the story, not even when looking at Newtons .3-yard depth of target. Most of Newton’s yards were added after the catch on two catch and runs by Jonnu Smith and James White, both thrown at or around the line of scrimmage. The offense was stagnant, Cam was holding on to the ball too long, and it just looked a lot like last year.

When Jones entered the offense immediately started clicking. He took instant command of the pocket, the ball came out on time and on target, and even though the playcalling was conservative, he showed that he simply allows the Patriots to do what the Patriots want to do on offense way better than Cam does.

Loser: Fantasy GMs

Unfortunately I don’t believe this was ever a true competition and I don’t believe Jones will start week 1, and I don’t know when he will start. And if you want to bet on guessing what Bill Belichik is thinking, good luck. If you want to depend on either as your QB2, you’ll have to take both QBs until Jones starts, because there is no way Cam starts the whole season. But there’s also no way of knowing how long he will play.

Drew Lock vs Teddy Bridgewater, Broncos

Winner: Drew Lock

We knew that Lock could throw the deep ball, but he put together an amazing fist couple of drives ending in this beautiful 80-yard bomb to KJ Hamler. But the bigger news was he just didn’t make any headscratcher throws, and he connected with Jerry Jeudy on a 33-yard catch and run.

Loser: Teddy Bridgewater

Teddy didn’t do anything wrong and I think this is still something that we could see switch later in the season. I don’t like betting on players to change their stripes in their third year, and I could see Lock playing his way out of the starting role. But given who Teddy is, I can’t see him overtaking Lock on his own merits.

Taysom Hill vs Jameis Winston, Saints

Credit: Saints Wire

Winner: Taysom Hill

I want to be clear that neither QB played well enough to cement a solid claim on the starting job. I’m giving it to Taysom based solely on the fact that he started. His accuracy was off, not on his interception which was due to a receiver quitting on his route, but just in general. He should have been picked off a second time.

Jameis looked like he was still having trouble with his reads and struggling under mild pressure. He did pick it up later on, but there was nothing convincing about his performance.

Loser: Me

I have been predicting Jameis as an incredible late-round value with an ADP in the 10th to serve as your QB2 this year, based on his one-year removed season leading the league in passing yards. This preseason game leads me to think that we may see multiple switches at QB in season, with both struggling.

The old adage may apply: If you’ve got two starting quarterbacks, you’ve got none.

Trey Lance vs Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers

Winner: 49ers Schedule

Lance did all the things we knew he could do: throw deep, throw accurate, throw on the run. Jimmy G looked exactly like the player we have seen for years, and is likely who we will see under center for most of this year.

The 49ers have the easiest schedule in the league. There is a very good chance they can amass a winning record in the first half just relying on their running game and their defense. As much as Lance looks ready and a superior talent to Garoppolo, the truth is the 49ers probably won’t need him to win games.

Loser: 49ers Fans

The most likely outcome is that fans are teased with Lance on situational plays and get only glimpses of his talent for the majority of the season. Those looking to make Lance their QB2 will either have to depend on their QB3 to start in the second QB or superflex slot, or hope to get lucky on the waiver wire.

Preseason August 14 and 15 Observations

The big takeaway for the Bears is that Fields looked absolutely as advertised, even if it did take him most of the second quarter to get going.

There were a ton of games Saturday and Sunday so I won’t cover all of them but I’ll cover all of the rookie QBs and anything else that stood out.

Bears vs Dolphins: Preseason Week 1

The big takeaway for the Bears is that Fields looked absolutely as advertised, even if it did take him most of the second quarter to get going. He created space with his legs, threw accurate passes from both inside and outside the pocket, and showed the potential that the Bears offense could have with him under center.

Damien Williams entered the game early after David Montgomery left immediately after his first carry with a noticeable limp. Williams looked much like he did the last time we saw him with KC, showing good burst and catching passes out of the backfield.

Tua Tagovailoa actually looked pretty good prior to a really bad decision to throw into tight coverage in the end zone, resulting in a drive killing interception. Malcolm Brown actually started in front of Myles Gaskin but did little with his carries. Jaylen Waddle had a good return and flashed his speed but did little in the passing game.

Jacoby Brissett looked more than capable as a backup and could be a good fill-in QB if Tua goes down.

Broncos vs Vikings: Preseason Week 1

Credit: NFL.com

Drew Lock looked surprisingly sharp in this game, connecting with KJ Hamler for a beautiful 80-yard touchdown, and Trinity Benson on a short TD for 4 yards later in the first quarter. Lock also connected with Jerry Jeudy on a 33-yard catch and run, giving hope to Jeudy owners if Lock gets the starting nod which looks likely at this point.

Bridgewater should have had a rushing score in addition to his passing score to Benson in the third quarter, but simply did not look as explosive as Lock.

Javonte Williams looked powerful and decisive as a runner, and had a nice TD along the left edge called back on holding. Definitely a value in later rounds.

Minnesota struggled to get anything going under Browning, and Kellen Mond did not look ready for primetime, even against the 2s and 3s.

Saints vs Ravens: Preseason Week 1

Credit: NFL.com

Taysom started and was looking good at first. The first interception was not his fault as his receiver quit on a drag route, causing the timing throw to fall into a defenders waiting arms. However he should have been picked off on a subsequent drive, showing his accuracy still remains a work in progress.

Jameis looked hesitant in his decision making when he went in, sharpened up later but also had a pick and didn’t really establish himself even against the 2’s. Neither QB staked their claim to the starting job.

The Ravens offense did not look good, and Dobbins struggled to make anything of the few carries he got. McSorley looked decent, and Devin Duvernay actually had a decent game. With Batemon likely starting on IR, he could provide some value in very deep leagues.

The surprise of the night was a dominant rushing performance for Tony Jones Jr., rushing for 82 yards and a touchdown on just 7 carries, and catching 5 balls for 38 yards. Dynasty leagues should take notice.

Jaguars vs Browns: Preseason Week 1

Credit: NFL.com

After a quick fumble and recovery on his first snap in the NFL, Lawrence recovered his composure and unleashed a few zip passes that proved his worth as the first overall pick. The stat line is less impressive than his throws.

Chiefs vs 49ers: Preseason Week 1

Credit: Sports Illustrated

Lance was the other big news of the day, showcasing a really powerful arm on an 80-yard touchdown to Trent Sherfield. He also looked ready for the big stage, though he did take a couple of sacks where he waited too long in the pocket and should have thrown the ball away. His receivers didn’t do his stat line any favors with multiple drops.

Trey Sermon looked good…like really good. Nothing too spectacular, just decisive, quick, and powerful. He could easily take over this backfield if Mostert stumbles out of the gate.

Clyde Edwards Helaire looked good for the chiefs, as did Byron Pringle, who caught a 10-yard touchdown early in the game, while Mecole Hardman had 1 target and no catches.

It will be really hard for Shanahan to keep Lance hidden away on the bench for long, and he has to be rethinking his stance after Saturday’s display.

Jets vs Giants: Preseason Week 1

Credit: NFL.com

Of the rookie QBs, Wilson was probably the least impressive. He did have nice zip on his completions along with a couple really bad interceptions. He didn’t do anything wrong or disconcerting to Jets fans, just didn’t shine as bright as the other four. He finished 6 of 9 for 63 yards, no TDs, no picks.

Preseason Game Observations August 13

Cardinals vs Cowboys Preseason Week 1

The best entertainment of night 2 of the preseason was not on the field.

It was in the Cardinals play-by-play booth in the form of what appeared to be the literal manifestation of Pepper Brooks from Dodgeball.

“Have you ever heard of ‘this, that, and the other’?” Play by play announcer Dave Pasch seemed stunned into silence, so “analyst” Ron Wolfey asked again. “Have you?”

Stammers, followed by stunned silence. Wolfey at one point during the broadcast openly wished to have his nose broken to “get the blood flowing up here” and at another point asked Pasch if he liked Chinese food for no apparent reason in describing a QB run.

It was fucking hilarious. We have a new national treasure.

In terms of the game, Rondale Moore looked good, ran some end arounds and caught 4 passes in quick succession. Got open underneath and could be a weapon in the slot. Kirk caught a long ball but did so only after a blatant push off that should have been called for offensive pass interference.

Edmonds looked spry catching the ball, and Eno Benjamin shined most running against the second and third team of Dallas’s already second rate unit.

For Dallas, Gallup had a nice grab on a screen pass and used his legs to get to the first down. Gilbert looked more comfortable than he did in the HOF game and had some nice throws, so maybe don’t sell all Dallas assets on the cheap if Dak goes down.

Falcons vs Titans Preseason Week 1

Credit: Yahoo Sports

No Pitts, no Julio, no Henry, nobody and nothing of interest really. I tried watching this game but continually felt my eyes glazing over. The only takeaway is that A.J. McCarron is really, really, really bad.

Darrynton Evans was having a nice game until going down with a knee injury clouding Henry’s backup picture. Could be Brian Hill.

None of the Falcons backup running backs did much, leaving that situation unsetlled and my Javien Hawkins dynasty pick looking like a waste. It felt like it at the time.

Bills vs Lions Preseason Week 1

I looked up Jared Goff on google and this was the best image I got

Goff struggled early and finished ok, 7/9 for 56 yards. Boring stuff.

Swift didn’t play and Jamal Williams looked like absolute dog shit. But it’s preseason and you can tell no one really gives a crap.

Singletary actually looked really good running the ball for the Bills, showing decisive burst through the line and getting chunk gains. With Moss out and an ADP in the 10th round, he could be a valuable bench stash/flex play if Moss misses significant time.

Preseason Game Observations: August 12

Thursday’s preseason games had some interesting implications for 2QB dynasty and redraft leagues. I’ll be focusing on those as well as a few observations on running backs and wide receivers.

Eagles vs Steelers

Credit: USA Today

Hurts performed better than his stat line and did a few things that showed his stage in the maturation process. For one, he was plugging along nicely on his first drive until Zach Ertz let a perfectly thrown ball bounce off his hands on third down, killing his first drive.

On the next drive Hurts chose to dive, narrowly missing a first down instead of trucking the defender, which ended the drive as well. Had this been a regular season game he likely would have made the extra effort and gotten the first with his legs, but giving up on the play in preseason shows he is thinking the right way to stay under center for the Eagles.

Also, on a play where he was scrambling to his right to extend the play, he threw the ball out of bounds instead of trying to make something happen.

On the other side, Najee Harris looked much better than he did at the HOF game, showing impressive burst and the ability to quickly get to the second level of the defense through trash at the line. He had two runs called back with holding, and on both he gained about 9-10 yards. Neither of the holds freed him and one should not have been called.

JuJu Smith Schuster caught a lot of short passes out of the slot and hauled in all of his targets. While his yards per reception is going to go down, his receptions should go up. Dionte Johnson had a nice game as well.

Patriots vs WFT

Credit: The Sports Rush

This was the truly interesting game. Cam looked a lot like what we saw last year. He did not have a pass deep, and I think never threw further than 10 yards beyond the line. Almost all of yardage came from short passes that Jonnu Smith and James White took long, making their catches at or around the line of scrimmage. Newton narrowly avoided a fumble, and the offense simply was not clicking with him on the field.

Then Mac Jones came on the field.

Jones immediately showed what the Patriots have been seeing in recent practices: accurate throws, quick decisions, excellent pocket presence and footwork. While he was confined mostly to checkdowns, he was making excellent anticipation throws on time, in traffic, and on target. His first drive should have ended with a long touchdown along the left sideline but Kristian Wilkerson let the pass bounce off his hands.

Jones did miss Gunner Olsweski on a deep route later in the game and was obviously upset with himself, but had that been Nelson Agolhor or Kendrick Bourne, both absent, maybe that’s a completion.

Essentially, with Cam under center the offense looked stagnant. It didn’t click. With Mac under center it clicks, and it was obvious to anyone watching the game.

Another Pats camp storyline did not pan out, and that was the ascendence of N’Keal Harry. Whatever he has been showing in practice did not show up on the field, as N’Keal was overshadowed by Kristian Wilkerson. He just wasn’t getting open.

Antonio Gibson got a few carries and three receptions for WFT, but the rest of the offense was pretty boring to watch as the starters only saw a few series. Terry was Terry and Fitz looked sharp. The defense was the star of the show as one would expect.

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