Sometimes there are rumbles. Sometimes there are subtle shifts of the ground beneath our feet. And occasionally, there are earthquakes.
Rodgers reported to Packers camp yesterday, and while no deal is final yet, Schefter reports that a likely concession would be allowing him to choose his next location in 2022.
This has huge implications across redraft and dynasty.
Redraft Implications of Rodgers Playing in 2021
Davante Adams is your unquestioned WR1 and absolutely worth a mid-to-late first round pick. Aaron Jones is back in the second tier of running backs. Tonyan becomes a trustworthy TE1, and guys like Marquez Valdez Scantling and Amari Rodgers are decent late-round fliers. Rodgers? He’s going to go ballistic this year. I’m thinking he actually joins the 1st tier of QBs, albeit at the back end, as he and Adams look to break Randy Moss’s touchdown record. Let the last dance commence.
Dynasty Implications of Rodgers’ Contract
If Rodgers is allowed to choose his destination at the end of this season, which appears very likely, that sends ripples across the league. There are few teams that would not be immediately improved by signing Rodgers, and those are Kansas City, Buffalo, Arizona, Dallas, and that’s about it. We can assume that Jacksonville and San Francisco are going to give their generational talents a shot. The Bears are likely out as well.
If Mac Jones does not impress, I could see the Pats making a run, but they don’t have the skill players to attract Rodgers, though Belichik’s resumé would certainly be attractive to someone looking to make a run at a couple more superbowls. If they could bring over Adams as well, could be a lock IF Jones disappoints.
Denver’s resurgence of Manning’s career post-injury could be attractive, but their head coach situation is unsettled and I doubt Rodgers would want to play for a first-year head coach.
Washington? Ummm, if Rodgers thinks Green Bay’s front office is bad, I don’t think he’d like it there.
The Steelers are a great organization, but does he want to move to Pittsburgh for half the year?
To me the most obvious and likely spot is Miami. Great city, roster is loaded with skill players out wide, much improved defense. The Saints would probably be next on that list
The biggest impact of this uncertainty has to be on the trade market for Deshaun Watson. The Texans are asking for 3 1st-round picks and players for Watson, whose legal troubles continue to mount. Two more women have joined the suit, bringing the total who have filed police reports against him to 10. What team is going to offer up that much for a player who may end up suspended, or even worse, may actually be guilty of what these women are accusing him of?
Though the Eagles seem like a long shot for Rodgers, any team thinking of trading for Watson must now weigh his signing (and the mortgage-the-future package it would take to get him) against the possibility of getting 3-5 years out of Rodgers instead. Rodgers may be “complex” but he doesn’t come with PR-nightmare baggage right now.
Michael Thomas to Miss 5-6 Weeks of Regular Season
Michael Thomas is now slated to miss an unknown amount of time to begin the season. 5-6 weeks is the initial prognosis, which depresses the value a little of whoever starts at quarterback (this will affect Jameis more than Hill) but should lift the value of Tre’Quan Smith and Adam Trautman.
Smith should be a viable WR2/3 in fantasy and Trautman becomes more viable as a late-round flier as a TE2 with upside or a TE1 if you are going no TE for the single-digit rounds.
Saquon Starts on PUP
If you’ve been listening this offseason this is no surprise. Still it does show that the talk was not just a smokescreen, and the Giants are going to take their time with him. Saquon is the key to the Giant’s future, and with Daniel Jones being very much a question mark, expect Saquon to do little work in camp and get zero preseason reps.
Henderson Feeling the Love from McVay
“He likes me! He really likes me!”
McVay has been steadfast that the team is not rushing to sign a veteran running back and thinks that Henderson can be an every-down back.
While Henderson did not make an impact in the passing game last year, he did show burst as a runner and decent-to-good ability to run between the tackles. Henderson currently has an 8th-round ADP in 2QB leagues, meaning most drafters either doubt his ability or think McVay is blowing smoke. I’m buying at that price.
Zach Wilson is Already Screwing it Up
Trevor Lawrence signed his deal a month ago. Zach Wilson has yet to sign his and is now missing camp.
This is a HUGE red flag to me in dynasty. I don’t care what the reason is. This tells me that this kid’s head is not in the right place and increases my feeling that his bust potential is sky-high.
Zach, you are not special, you have not proved it, sign your deal and get in camp YESTERDAY.