Teams on Bye: Ravens, Raiders
The November 2nd trade deadline is looming large this week and of course that means ten millions articles saying very little about Deshaun Watson, and of course I listed him on my WW column this week. Here are the only truly relevant bits about Watson that are currently comprising the ten million articles.
The NFL has said that it doesn’t have enough information right now to suspend Watson or place him on the exempt list, meaning if a team does trade for him, he would theoretically be able to play. So if traded, Deshaun Watson is a slam-dunk league winner in Superflex leagues. This is barring criminal charges, but those would have already been filed if they were coming in this case.
The other relevant bit of information is that the Dolphins and Texans have actually agreed to terms, but the Dolphins want to let the legal process play out before making a move. This doesn’t necessarily preclude a team from jumping them and trading for Watson before the deadline, but it does show that there is serious concern around the league that the NFL could seek to punish Watson via suspension once his civil cases are concluded, barring a complete exoneration of Watson on all charges.
Now, there is still a non-zero percent that another team, maybe the Panthers or Broncos, musters up the king’s ransom the Texans are reportedly demanding, but I wouldn’t put those chances above 5%. Still, unless it will significantly cost your team chances at the playoffs, now would be the time to pick up or trade for Watson.
Obvious Superflex QB1 Starts for Week 8
QB1 – Josh Allen vs the Dolphins: Absolutely no reason not to rank him QB1 this week. Miami isn’t stopping anyone, just ask Matt Ryan.
QB2 – Tom Brady at the Saints: Tom Brady holds a grudge. At the start of THIS season he was still talking about their loss at the hands of the Saints at the beginning of last year. I think he is a great bet to finish QB2 even with a zero rushing floor.
QB3 – Dak Prescott at the Vikings: Coming off a 400+yard overtime win week 6, expect Dallas to lean more on Dak to win this one as Cousins and company can keep up.
QB4 – Kyler Murray vs the Packers: Rodgers and Green Bay are the right level of competition to bring out Kyler’s best work, but we just aren’t seeing the same rushing production out of him that we saw last year – he hasn’t gone over 30 yards since week 4 and amassed a total of 17 rushing yards in his last three.
QB5 – Patrick Mahomes vs the Giants: Yes there is reason for concern, but Mahomes is providing a nice rushing floor (around 30 yards per game) and had a great fantasy day week 6. The Chiefs may not be headed to the Super Bowl this year, but Mahomes owners should still be comfortable starting him as a top-5 option every week.
QB6 – Matt Stafford at the Texans: I love Stafford and what he is doing this year, hell I had him at QB4 last week despite a middling opponent, but it’s hard to see him finishing the game. You have to start him unless you have two of the above, but expect a down week and only 3 full quarters of action.
QB7 – Justin Herbert vs the Patriots: Fire up Herbert after a down week and a bye to get over it. Just watch out if the opposing defensive coordinator says he can throw a marshmallow through a T-Rex.
QB8 – Joe Burrow at the Jets: It pains me to put Burrow this low after finishing as QB1 in most leagues last week. But the Bengals don’t pass as much when they are solidly ahead and that should be the case whether it’s Flacco or White under center for New York.
QB9 – Jalen Hurts at the Lions: I have him this low because I think the Eagles are going to try and simplify things for Hurts. He’s hanging onto his starting job by a chinstrap but I think he uses this matchup to hold on for one more day.
QB10 – Kirk Cousins vs the Cowboys: I expect the Cowboys D to have a decent day but think Cousins can overcome.
QB11 – Aaron Rodgers at the Cardinals: Check back before gametime to see if Adams plays, if so Rodgers jumps up behind Mahomes, if not he should be right around here.
QB12 – Ryan Tannehill at the Colts: The Colts rank 16th in FPA to QBs and are 22nd in sacks per game. Tannehill has posted two 100+ QBRs in the past two weeks, after posting none in the first four. Start and buy low.
Superflex QB2 Starts with Some Questions
Everyone in this week’s top 12 is a solid start with the possible exception of Burrow. Luckily Burrow had weak draft capital and is probably a QB2 on many superflex squads. Hurts is risky because another shaky start could get him benched. Probably not this week but coming soon to a firestorm near you. Sell-low folks.
Looking downstream at the QB2 field, it’s a mess. I think there are a few gems in here that could push their way into the top ten this week. Let’s see who they are.
QB13 – Tua Tagovailoa at the Bills:
If the Bills weren’t currently allowing the lowest FPG to QBs in the league Tua would be in the top ten. But getting the Bills at home is sure to derail what has been an incredible 2-game run for Tua with trade rumors swirling all around him. I have him this high because he finished QB8 week 6 and QB1 week 7. He’s playing at a high level right now and I think the rumors are fueling him.
QB14 – Matt Ryan vs Carolina:
We know the Carolina offense is bad. That could be bad for Ryan with a coach who shows conservative tendencies. But Ryan, after the bye, showed that he can still throw the deep ball and that’s great news for his owners and Kyle Pitts. May not be so great for Ridley owners but who knows?
Compare this chart to his week 5 performance which was more indicative of the pre-bye trend.
Carolina is thoroughly average against the pass. Ryan should do well again and is a good buy-mid target.
QB15 – Daniel Jones at the Chiefs:
Daniel Jones is a perennial mystery. Is he the problem? Is the coach the problem? OC? We just know there is a problem. There might not be against the Chiefs, second to only WFT in FPA to QBs, and at best average in opponent completion percentage and basically every other measurable category against the pass (1 sack in their past 3!). He sucked against Carolina who is beatable, but at least got some rushing mojo back with his most yards (28) since week 4. Startable as a QB2 but don’t expect an explosion unless Toney is back.
QB16 – Trevor Lawrence at Seattle:
Trevor is on his way up, and Seattle is more beatable through the air than their last game suggests (tons of dropped passes by Stills, Smith, and White). I think Trevor’s college experience has prepared him for the noise, and the weather is looking clear as of this writing. He ripped off three straight weeks with QBR north of 90 and I think we just see ascendence from here.
QB17 – Mac Jones at the Chargers:
The Chargers allow the 24th most FPG to QBs and are a really tough road matchup for Jones. The playbook is opening up for him and that’s a god thing for everyone not named Jakobi Meyers. Check out his splits from both Jets games this year, both blowouts.
Given who they are facing and the fact the Belichik really doesn’t want to miss the playoffs two seasons in a row, I think this cumulates in a high-volume, deep-passing game for Jones which should be good for a top-15 finish.
QB18 – Tyrod Taylor vs the Rams:
OK, hear me out…this is the team that just allowed Jared Goff to throw for 268 yards and finish QB18. Tyrod, in his one-game sample size earlier this year, actually looked pretty good (QB10) finish. Goff found success throwing short passes to the middle of the field. Tyrod has success throwing short passes to set up the occasional deep ball. Could surprise some people this week, and he can run when he has to.
QB19 – Teddy Bridgewater vs WFT:
I had Bridge too high last week for playing on a short week on a bum ankle. With ten days rest to heal, I think he makes a fine QB2 play at WFT with QB1 upside given the WFT passing funnel and Jeudy coming back.
QB20 – Jameis Winston vs the Bucs:
It wasn’t all his fault Monday night, but Jameis failed to look any better than he has for the majority of the season. He was the victim of drops, but also just not being on the same page with his receivers, and relying way too heavily on dump off to Kamara.
Do revenge games matter? Brady sucked in the most-hyped revenge game of recent memory. I think we can expect about the same from Jameis, somewhere sub 250 in passing with 2-3 TDs.
QB21 – Carson Wentz vs the Titans: Pittman is making Wentz look better than he is. He’s in a plus spot against the Titans so this is a week to start him if you have him. Not an exciting option but likely better than QB24 this week.
QB22 – Jared Goff vs the Eagles:
When I think Goff I think short dump-off passes and lots of them because the Lions really don’t have a run game. So I looked up who is giving out the most completions per game in the league. Over the last three Philly is giving up the third most in the league. That gives Goff a fighting chance to get YAC out of Swift, Williams, and Raymond, who are all good flex plays this week (Swift is more of a RB1/2). Nothing spectacular but north of 280 and possibly two scores.
QB23 – Taylor Heinicke at the Broncos:
Heinicke is mercurial. He vacillates from Rudy story to “he is who we thought he was” every week. Last week he was Rudy, except for the L.
Knowing that Ryan Fitzpatrick is still on crutches, the leash gets longer for Heinicke even though for some reason Ron Rivera still believes in Kyle Allen. The Broncos got exposed by the Browns and I don’t think this game will be why Heinicke gets the hook. Low-end QB2 with high-end QB2 upside.
QB24 – Justin Fields vs the Niners:
I was back and forth on Fields vs Jimmy G in this last spot. Fields wins out simply because he does have rushing upside. I am not expecting Fields to get it, maybe not this year. I hate to admit it but I think Nagy was right that he just needs to sit and learn. And it’s one thing to not get too down on yourself, but it’s another thing to sit on the sidelines and look like you don’t care that you are playing like garbage. Get your head in a Surface and figure out what is going wrong.
Respect Yourself, You Can Do Better
No particular order because we are delving into the worst of the worst here and order shouldn’t matter.
Sam Darnold: #DarnoldSpiral will be a thing
Geno Smith: Gee, no.
Mike White/Joe Flacco: We don’t need an experienced backup! Our rookie from BYU who never saw pressure in college will be fine!
Jimmy G: Coming to a clipboard near you.
Keenum/Baker: Not against Pittsburg, not this week. Pitt giving up 4.9 ypg rushing in last three.
Ben: No means no.