Post week 3 is usually when the waiver wire starts to thin, but it can also be a huge opportunity for long term adds. Once you have three weeks there is enough data to make better decisions, and guys that started slow and were the victim of hasty drops become available.
Waiver Wire Quarterbacks: Superflex
Trey Lance, 34% rostered, 25% FAAB
Jimmy G is holding the Niners back. He’s not bad, and they almost won against the Packers, but this offense needs an extra gear and I think Shanahan knows it. He won’t start against Seattle but he may start the following week. Bbbut Fields! Unlike the Bears the Niners have an o-line and a head coach.
Mac Jones, 20% rostered, FAAB 10%
To those just reading the stats it looks like Jones had a meltdown game and they’re not totally wrong. But at least one of his interceptions bounced off Smiths hands and into a defenders. And the Pats are 1-2. But consider that he lost James White, he was the number 1 rusher on the team (what?!) and finally was put in a position where he had to pass to give his team a chance to win. Someone pointed out that McDaniels is not helping Jones with a conservative game plan. That won’t be an option against the Bucs and frankly they looked helpless against Stafford and the Rams passing game.
Taylor Heinicke, 6% rostered, FAAB 10%
Heinicke looked predictably bad against the Bills. His fantasy score was above average and the WFT doesn’t have any other options. He gets Atlanta this week who may not be such a cake matchup after they shut down Daniel Jones.
Drops: Ben Roethlisberger, Zach Wilson, Matt Ryan
Waiver Wire Running Backs
Chuba Hubbard, 26% rostered, FAAB 10%
I wouldn’t spend too much here as I don’t expect him to play more than 1 game. CMC will be back soon, otherwise he would be on IR.
Rhamondre Stevenson, 10% rostered, FAAB 10%
If you missed the part about Mac Jones being the leading rusher on his team, MAC JONES WAS THE LEADING RUSHER ON HIS TEAM. Redshirt year over for Stevenson, though this will be a tough start against the Bucs.
JJ Taylor, 1% rostered, 1% FAAB
James White is out indefinitely and Taylor is the most likely replacement in the pass-catching RB role, though it could be N’Keal Harry.
Drops: Gainwell, Hyde, Jones Jr, Ingram
Waiver Wire Wide Receivers
Emmanuel Sanders, 27% rostered, FAAB 40%
Sanders has season-long WR3 potential averaging 6 targets a game. Last weeks breakout won’t be the norm but he should provide a 5-catch 60-yard floor with breakout weeks like last week. Don’t be afraid to spend to get him.
AJ Green, 15% rostered, FAAB 15%
Another guy getting a steady 6 targets a game, he had a TD in week 2 and went 5 for 112 last week. A mix of TD potential and yards should provide safe WR3 numbers going forward.
Hunter Renfrow, 12% rostered, FAAB 10%
Another guy seeing steady targets, but less sexy than the first two. Renfrow is a better route runner than you think and has earned the trust of Derek Carr. 7.5 targets a game and got a TD last week.
Drops: Elijah Moore, Agholor, Zach Pascal
Waiver Wire Tight Ends
Mike Gesicki, 56% rostered, FAAB 30%
Even though Gesicki is rostered in over half of leagues I felt I had to include him because the likelihood that he was dropped seems higher than this percentage. He saw 12 targets last week. That alone is reason to prioritize him, but he caught 10 of them for 86 yards. At an incredibly thin position, he is not only delivering value but doing it after a change at QB.
Dalton Schultz, 3% rostered, FAAB 25%
Schultz was the clear winner in the TE battle in Dallas last night and managed to haul in two scores along with 80 yards on 7 targets. Even with Jarwin seeing some work, this passing game is productive enough to support a TE1 along with CeeDee and Cooper. Schultz was the clear winner over Jarwin last night, who only saw 2 targets and gained 14 yards.
Tyler Conklin, 4% rostered, FAAB 10%
Conklin’s 8 targets came at the expense of KJ Osborne, who fell back to earth in week 3. They may trade target weeks as teams have to choose who to cover. Still worth a shot to see if he can maintain a floor.
Zach Ertz, 25% Rostered, FAAB 10%
Ertz looked like the favored TE to me in Philly last night, and Hurts showed he won’t wilt after a rough start. Ertz did not look washed up, and turned 7 targets into a productive 53 yards and a score. After seeing just 2 targets in each of his first two games, tonight may be a turning point or a blip. Worth a shot to see.
Drops: Adam Trautman, Pharoah Brown, Jared Cook, Blake Jarwin, Cole Kmet
Waiver Wire DST
Chicago, 29% rostered, FAAB 10%
Chicago has a good defense, they just can’t absorb the most putrid offense in NFL history. Nagy will be fired midseason which will improve things immediately. This week they get Detroit, a good spot start as the Bears can’t possibly get any worse.
Cincinatti, 5% rostered, FAAB 10%
Thursday night game against the Jags. Cincy has quietly been one of the better defenses all season and are positioned to take away the Jags only real weapon in James Robinson.
Miami, 17% rostered, FAAB 10%
They allowed Vegas a lot of points but made up for that with skill plays. They get a hobbled Carson Wentz and an Indy offense stuck in neutral at home this week.
Drops: New England, Pittsburgh, Las Vegas