For the purposes of this article I am assuming the following: 12-team league, 2 starting QB slots, 3WR, 2RB, TE, Flex, K, DST with standard PPR scoring, no roster limits, and five bench spots. Drafting from the ten spot.
Pick 1.10: Go For the Record
The goal in round 1 is to get a player with almost guaranteed separation against almost all of his peers at the position. At the 10 spot in start 2QB leagues, one should expect that McCaffrey, Cook, Mahomes, Murray, Allen, Kamara, and probably Jackson and Henry are gone. To me, the guy that is likely available in late-rounds that offers significant upside over every other player at his position is Davante Adams.
I have Davante projected for over 50 points above the WR2 in HIll, and 122 points over the WR12 in Lamb.
That constitutes the significant advantage over peers I am looking for in round 1. I think Davante makes a serious run at Randy Moss’s 22-TD single-season record in the last dance.
Pick 2.3: Dak is Back
Assuming there is a solid return to health soon, I am targeting Dak Prescott at the 2.3. Normally I would not target a QB in the second and take best available in the third, but I feel Dak (if healthy) has a legit shot at finishing QB1.
His weapons could not possibly be better. HIs defense couldn’t be much worse. This is a lethal combo for QB production and I feel that competing in a 2QB league does require a stud QB1. I would not hate on anyone choosing to gamble and wait at QB, but if Dak is there in the second round in a start 2QB league, I think you have to jump.
I have Dak at 96 fantasy points over QB12 Joe Burrow, and 40 points over Lamar Jackson who I expect to go several slots before him.
Pick 3.10: Don’t Sleep on Dobbins
The spectre of Gus Edwards is depressing Dobbin’s value to the third round. The guy averaged 6 YPC as a rookie, is in line for increased passing down work, and has one of the best defenses in the league meaning there should be meaningful work in the 4th quarters of most games.
I love Dobbins this year and am only waiting to see how heavily Edwards is utilized in camp to move him above the likes of Jonathan Taylor. He screams value in the third. I’m still tweaking my rankings for him but right now I have him finishing as RB8.
Pick 4.3: Out Like a Lamb
Obviously I am buying big on the Dallas offense this season, and yes this is a reach. Cooper’s absence in camp gives Lamb all the room he needs to grab the lion’s share of targets, and I can’t think of a better stack than Dak and Lamb, assuming a full return to health for Dak (I’m not worried but it bears watching).
Not only am I reaching for Lamb, I am likely passing on Chris Carson, who is by far the safer and more sensible pick. He just doesn’t wow me. I don’t see him as a difference maker or league-winner, and I absolutely see Lamb being that this year.
Pairing Lamb and Adams this year would be devastating.
Pick 5.10: Out of the Woods
As tempting as it would be to panic and grab a RB or a second QB here, resist.
Rams WRs are due for a massive uptick this year with Stafford extending drives and increasing ADOT, and I expect Woods to be the main beneficiary. I can’t expect De’Andre Swift to be here, and frankly investing in any Lions players this year is foolish. Grab a key cog on an ascendent offense and close out your starting wide receivers.
Pick 6.3: James Robinson Isn’t Done
Waiting this long on running back carries a ton of risk. But rarely do teams that avoid risk win championships. But I think Robinson will still make for a solid RB2 this year. Why?
HIs offense will improve greatly with a generational talent under center able to extend drives. His understudy, Etienne, has been consistently described as a wide receiver and gadget player that we know Urban Meyer loves to utilize. And we also know Meyer likes to run the ball, a lot.
Robinson’s camp reports have been good, saying he is looking faster than last year. Factoring in just a 5% improvement from his rookie year, I have him as RB15, making him a solid #2.
Pick 7.10: Make the Most of It
Mostert will not average more than 15 carries a game. But for a guy who reached over 500 yards in 8 games last year, averaged over 5 ypc and almost 10 ypr, he can do a lot with a little. I do expect Sermon to be involved. But after watching college tape I think he will not be a rookie phenom that takes over the backfield. And I don’t see him getting passing down work over Mostert.
While Mostert will never be used as a goal-line back, his unbelievable speed makes him a threat to break one every time he touches the ball. The fantasy hive mind has a short memory, and is always distracted by the shiny new toy. Take that to the house, kinda like Mostert did on this one last year.
Pick 8.03: The Carter
We are already hearing the word “mentor” ascribed to Tevin Coleman. Personally I would not mind owning a piece of SF East’s backfield.
The buzz around Carter has been the most positive of the backs, and frankly Coleman has looked cooked since leaving Atlanta, and LaMicheal Perine did very little with his chances last year.
I think Carter is the right rookie for a late-round swing.
Pick 9.10: Antonio Brown
There is literally no player in the NFL who is a bigger douchebag or represents a ticking time-bomb more than Antonio Brown. No one.
Learned his lesson? Ready to focus? Hell no. When you are so cluelessly in love with yourself that you can produce a piece of trash that is so bad it constitutes an insult to auto-tuned mumble-rap (already an egregious insult to hip-hop), there is absolutely no hope for any type of redemption for you.
BUT, unfortunately for the NFL, dude can still play, and he was more of a 1C to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin when playing last year than a WR3. I have him at WR26 which makes him a steal in round 9 and one I can’t pass up, even if I do throw up in my mouth a little.
Pick 10.3: Jameis Winston – Key to Your Championship
I know you have been saying, since about round 5, isn’t this a 2QB draft? Aren’t all the viable QBs getting snatched left and right?
Yes. Except one. This begs a “what if I told you.”
What if I told you the league-leader in passing yards just two years ago would be available in the 10th round in a 2QB league? What if I told you that quarterback played with poor vision and had corrective surgery AFTER this season? And what if I told you this same QB got to sit and learn behind one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, and gets to play for one of the top offensive minds in the NFL, and is about to be handed the keys to one of the better offensive systems of the past decade?
That is exactly what Winston is this year. If his decision-making and turnovers are incurable, then this pick is basically doomed to failure, but this is all about making bets, and I’m putting my money on Winston’s redemption.
Pick 11.10: Taysom Hill – The Backup Plan
I said you had to take risks, not that you can’t hedge. Hill currently has an ADP in the 11th round, and even if Jameis gets named the starter, there is nothing wrong with insurance against an early or mid-season implosion.
If Hill ends up starting part or all of the season, you get an experienced QB who knows the system, has the confidence of the coaching staff, and can get points with his legs. You can’t do much better than that in round 11.
Pick 12.3: The Backup to the Backup Plan
Yes, in order to minimize risk this approach requires fielding 4 QBs and basically ignoring TE the entire draft. Goff is the last warm body on the board that can fill in on bye weeks and has 100% job security.
Pick 13.10: Traut Fishing
With Thomas out with surgery and likely on the outs permanently with the Saints staff, someone has to run routes and catch passes besides Alvin Kamara. I have Trautman finishing at TE12, which makes him just a borderline starter.
But I have just 15 points total separating him and T.J Hockenson, the TE7, who is going at the beginning of the sixth round. Basically if you aren’t spending a pick on a TE in the first four rounds, you can wait and wait and wait and still get a passable starter.
Pick 14.03: Gimme Moore
In case you haven’t noticed, Ole MIss WRs have done ok in the NFL. Elijah Moore is the star of Jets camp and an absolute steal in the last rounds of your draft. Getting a WR in the 14th round who could be a reliable flex starter by week 4 is almost unfair.
Unless you get him.
Pick 15.10: Miami Defense
While the Dolphins didn’t make huge moves in free agency, they quietly added solid depth and potential starters to a unit that finished 4th in the league in points allowed. I could also see going with the Browns here, but I give Miami the edge on points allowed.
Pick 16.03: Phillip Lindsay
Lindsay is as good a dart throw as any in the final round. I am assuming he’s available later than stated ADP given just how bad the mojo is around the Texans. If not, take Alexander Mattison and wait for Cook to get injured.
Perfect Draft: Final Results (Starters in Bold)
| QB | RB | WR | TE | DST |
| Dak Prescott | J.K. Dobbins | Davante Adams | Adam Trautman | Dolphins |
| Jameis Winston | James Robinson | CeeDee Lamb | ||
| Taysom Hill | Raheem Mostert | Robert Woods | ||
| Jared Goff | Michael Carter | Antonio Brown | ||
| Phillip Lindsay | Elijah Moore |
This approach favors risk, maximizing starter VBD, and sacrificing depth. Dak Prescott in full health should offer massive value over at least 7 starting QBs in the QB1 slot. I also believe that Winston will perform more like a QB1 if he can just minimize turnovers enough to hold on to the starting job. If not, I think HIll’s ruching ability and experience make him at least equal in value to Jalen Hurts, currently ranked as QB12 in ADP. So two QB1s regardless of outcome in the QB2 slot.
Running back is a perceived weakness, but I think this group will outperform expectations across the board with the possible exception of Lindsay. I have Dobbins at RB8 which makes him a middle of the road RB1, but I think he has top-five potential. Robinson I have as RB15 meaning I think he’ll be an above average RB2. Mostert and Carter should see enough volume to be valuable bye-week/injury fill-ins with plenty of upside.
The lift that Davante Adams offers over the entire field (I have him at 40 points more than WR2) is something you really want on your side every week. Lamb is an admitted reach over guys like Allen Robinson and Terry McLaurin, but I see it coming together for him this season and I think you have to go with your gut. I see him finishing inside the top 10, and I think Woods will finish top 15 with Stafford under center. If Brown implodes (really the only way I can see him not finishing in the top 30 at WR) Elijah Moore or Raheem Mostert can fill in the flex spot admirably.
I purposefully ignored TE and DST and still feel fairly good about my options there.
This team got a “D+” rating from footballguys.com rate my team app which tells me I’m on to something.
