Category: Strategy

Superflex Draft Strategy: When to Take QB

Last week I did a little VBD analysis on the first pick in Superflex, comparing the relative value of taking Mahomes #1 vs McCaffrey #1. While there is no wrong answer because it all depends on how you develop the rest of your roster, it did seem that with even modest projections for McCaffrey, he was the winner in terms of return.

The bigger question is when to take a QB in general when playing Superflex or 2QB leagues in redraft.

As you can see in the image above, QBs went heavy in the first two rounds, with Brady being taken as the 9th QB at 2.10. This is in a casual $35 best ball league.

However, in a recent 12-team expert league, only 4 QBs went in the first two rounds (image below).

In yet another experts league, this one from FootballGuys staff, and a 14-team Superflex, we see a vastly different draft strategy being employed, with 14 QBs going in the first two rounds.

FBG Expert 14-team SF Draft

I’ve come to the conclusion that trying to decipher what is the right way or wrong way to draft in Superflex is a meaningless question. There is no right way, and if you are in the front half of the draft there is really no way of knowing how the draft will go and what will come back to you in the second.

Drafting for Value vs Avoiding Runs

First let’s take a look at the casual bestball league since most people reading this will not be drafting against industry experts, because really this is about reading tendencies and taking advantage of them. I’ll use the guy who took Brady as an example.

Pairing Brady with Murray is really nice, but is it better than pairing Ridley with Cooper? Had this team taken Ridley, he could have still grabbed Gibson as RB1 and then gotten Matt Ryan on the return in the 4th. So the comparison that’s relevant here is Brady vs Ryan and Ridley vs Jeudy as last starter vs last starter.

QBSeason Point ProjectionPPGWeekly Differential
Tom Brady34121.3+4.2
Matt Ryan27417.1-4.2
As before, using standard PPR and a 16-game season for consistency with last year

Now let’s take a look at the WR comps between Ridley and Jeudy.

WRSeason Point ProjectionPPGWeekly Differential
Calvin Ridley32420.3+6.5
Jerry Jeudy22113.8-6.5

This is assuming that Brady has a 1% improvement over last year (could be too low) and that Ryan declines by 3%. I’m assuming Ridley improves by 15% given the departure of Julio funneling more TD targets his way (could be wrong, Pitts is there) and giving Jeudy a 40% improvement over his rookie season and getting Bridgewater throwing more accurate passes underneath.

The point here is not to dissect the projections but to see if there is a massive difference in QB value and WR value given two starting QB spots among 32-34 starters, and 3-4 WR spots given 66 starters (give or take).

Unless this team believes that Brady will take yet another leap this year, or that Ridley will not benefit substantially from being the #1, VBD says that taking Ridley would make for a better team, and it just so happens there would have been no negative downstream RB impact assuming this team would have still grabbed Edwards when they did (11th round, no reason to think not).

The run here was strong, but not overwhelming, as it did not constitute half of the first two rounds as it did in the FBG expert draft.

Superflex QB Runs and How to Respond

We’ll take a look at the same spot, 1.3 in the FootballGuys 14-team Superflex Draft. First off, I have tremendous respect for this site and it’s writers. so take that bias for what it’s worth.

Dan Hindery did exactly what I would recommend in taking McCaffrey, even in a 14-team format. With only 1 QB taken, there was no real way to know that 10 QBs would come off the board before his next pick. But according to this draft, he did the right thing with his next pick in taking Burrow, because another 3 QBs came off the board before he picked again. And only 1 running back. But let’s look at the numbers.

QBSeason Point ProjectionPPGWeekly Differential
Joe Burrow31319.6+3.1
Tua Tagovailoa26416.5-3.1
As before, using standard PPR and a 16-game season for consistency with last year

Now let’s look at Najee vs Mixon.

RBSeason Point ProjectionPPGWeekly Differential
Najee Harris25916.2+0
Joe Mixon25916.2-0
As before, using standard PPR and a 16-game season for consistency with last year

Hindery did exactly what you should do when faced with a massive run at the QB position in a Superflex: respond. The fact that he likely had both Mixon and Harris ranked higher than Burrow on his cheatsheet no longer mattered. There were 11 QBs taken and a cliff was coming, some would say it had already passed with Herbert going at 2.10.

WR and RB value was getting pushed way downhill with Tier 1 WRs available in rounds 3 and 4, and Tier 2 guys like Harris, Barkley, and Chubb going in round 3.

So What’s the Strategy

In sales, you must always enter into negotiations with a BATNA (Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement). You should approach your Superflex drafts with a similar mindset – you have to know what QBs you think will outperform but have enough risk baked in that they will fall to at least round 3 or 4 if you decide to spend on higher tiers at other positions early on.

If you are drafting in the first half, it is crucial to identify at least two guys that you truly believe will outperform ADP and be prepared to take them before ADP if you pass on QB in the first few rounds. The safest bet for me is to grab Mahomes, Allen or Murray and then pass on QB until about round 4 and shoot for high upside guys like Winston, Lance, Lawrence, Mac Jones, Fields, and Fitz.

If you choose to stack value at RB and WR in the first three (for instance Dan could have taken McCaffrey, Chubb (personal preference), and Ridley, he could have gone Lawrence, Fields (again, personal preference), and Wilson in rounds 4-6 and still been more than ok. Given the value he got in rounds 1-3, I think this tactic would work well.

If you are drafting in the back half, I absolutely advocate stud RB-WR (or TE if that’s your thing) and then taking best available QB. I love what Wilde did here with Hill and Prescott, and I did about the same in my bestball with Adams and Prescott. I think he waited just long enough on QB2, and got an upside guy in Fitz and a safe guy in Teddy.

The Main Point

There is no wrong strategy, you have to respond to the draft. But you can’t stick to your pre-draft strategy in the face of a massive run or you will take guys a round earlier than you could have when QBs are flying off the board and you are losing value at one of if not the most important position in Superflex.

Adapt. React. Win.

Two Analytics Pieces that Could Help with RB Starts this Season

There is no question that analytics are taking over all sports gambling and fantasy sports. Be curious.

I am admittedly not an analytics guy. I have always subscribed to the school of eyes plus gut when making fantasy decisions.

There is no question that analytics are taking over all sports gambling and fantasy sports. So it’s time for me to learn, and the best way to do that is to listen to those that know a lot more than me, and to read. And be curious.

I came across two very interesting pieces this morning that I think when combined, could lead to so some smart sit/start decisions this year, even though one is dated.

Run Stop Wins Over Expectation (RSWOE)

This article is more interesting for its NFL implications than its fantasy implications, but I find the chart of the most effective interior run defenses really interesting. Put simply, the Jets were more than doubly effective as the next best team, the Rams, at stopping runs inside last year.

I checked the Jets performance against the run last year on teamrankings.com and they ranked 12th, so this likely means they were more effective stopping runs inside the tackles than outside runs. I did a little searching on team tendencies regarding running inside instead of outside.

Run Gap Tendencies By Team

Credit: mfootballanalytics.com, Tej Smith

I ran across a great article written by Tej Smith on mfootballanalytics.com diagnosing effectiveness of the run as illustrated in the above graphic. But the article goes much deeper into the effectiveness cross-referenced with tendencies on inside vs outside runs.

This article came out a year ago, but used four years of data from 2015-2019, so the trends are likely still relevant. Distilling all the info down to applicable fantasy nuggets, essentially runs outside the tackles (end runs) are more effective than runs inside the tackles. It then goes on to graph teams according to number of end runs vs other runs for the length of the data set. Even though the focus is about efficiency, it shows which teams have tendencies to run inside vs. outside.

Credit: mfootballanalytics.com, Tej Smith

So, at this point I got really interested because you have a combination of NFL statistical studies that could potentially benefit fantasy decisions.

The Browns, Steelers, and Giants had the lowest number of end runs over four years going into the 2020 season. The Jets had the most effective interior run defense by a wide margin in 2020, despite finishing as the 12th overall run defense that year.

The Jets played the Browns on December 27 last year, which was week 16, fantasy superbowl week. I owned Chubb, and was playing for third place which would have been worth $420 in this league. Chubb, against the Jets interior run defense, ran 11 times for a meager 28 yards, just 2.5 ypc. He did save his fantasy day somewhat with a touchdown and 5 catches for 38 yards, but knowing these trends might have caused me to sit him in favor for a decent wavier wire pickup.

The Chargers had the next highest rate of inside runs after the Browns in terms of Jets 2020 opponents, and the Jets held Kalen Ballage (admittedly inferior talent) to 2.8 ypc and Joshua Kelly to -.5 ypc on 4 carries.

Conversely, the Jets allowed 3.5 ypc to CEH and 6.3 ypc to Darrel Williams when they played the Chiefs, who utilize outside runs far more often.

As I said, I am not an analytics guy, so I won’t try to get into more extrapolation, but I thought both of these pieces were worth sharing as something useful, and as insight to folks like me who might shy away from analytics due to a lack of understanding or curiosity. As Ted Lasso says, always be curious.

QB Battles: The Final Countdown for Superflex Leagues

If you don’t know who these douchebags are that’s fine, it probably just means you’re under 40 or had exceedingly good taste in the eighties.

QB Battles are wrapping up left and right, time for a quick look back and where I was right and where I was wrong, and the implications for fantasy.

QB Battle #1: Cam Newton vs Mac Jones

One month ago I wrote that Mac Jones, barring showing himself to be a liability with accuracy or against the rush, would allow the Pats to get back to the kind of offense they want to run. I predicted that Belicihik and McDaniels would use Mac to get back to the old way of doing things sooner rather than later.

On August 4th I wrote that it appeared to be more Cam’s job to lose than Mac’s to win, and it was hard to see him not start the first half of the season, barring a meltdown by Cam. Cam’s awful first preseason game and his COVID debacle have definitely opened the door for Mac, but I have the feeling Cam will still get the start. However I don’t see him starting the first half of the season. He may not start the second half of the first game.

Reason being, as Tom Curran so eloquently put it, Mac Jones has made an incredibly solid case, most notably in joint practice with the Giants with Cam out. He has been not only the highest rated rookie passer in the preseason, he is one of the highest rated passers in the NFL this preseason.

This one is still, for some reason, undecided, but it’s not because we don’t know which QB makes the offense better and gives the team a better chance to win. And yes, you should be looking at him as a late-round QB3 in Superflex leagues. And unless you have a bye to cover in week 4, I wouldn’t worry about picking up Cam.

Fantasy Implications: Bump Meyers, Harris, White

QB Battle #2: Winston vs Hill

Winston slammed the door shut on any idea of Taysom starting with an eye-popping performance against the Jags first-team D. 9/10 passing, 128 yards, 2 TDs, and amazing pocket awareness on his second touchdown throw to recognize an unblocked defender, move to his right and time his throw to Callaway perfectly.

A month ago I wrote that barring any really negative camp reports or disasters in the preseason, he should win the starting job and was a steal at QB2 as the 28th QB off the board. I will admit after the first preseason game my confidence was shaken after neither QB really distinguished himself and he seemed hesitant in the pocket.

After Monday night’s game I dropped Matt Ryan for him in my Superflex money league (over $3k to first) and I’m happy with that decision still. I would not be surprised to see Jameis finish in the top-7 this year, even with Taysom coming in inside the five.

Fantasy Implications: Bump all Saints skill players, especially Callaway

QB Battle #3: Lock vs Bridgewater

A month ago I wrote that either player would be essentially a warm body at QB.

After the first preseason game I wrote that I thought Lock was the winner, but that I could see him playing his way out of the position and Teddy couldn’t overtake him on his own merits.

Though Lock did essentially sink his own ship in the second preseason game, I’ll say I was wrong here. Steady Teddy makes more sense for a team with a good defense and two good running backs, and Lock’s erratic play would torpedo the defense’s ability to keep them in games.

Fantasy Implications: Bump Jeudy, Fant, downgrade Sutton

QB Battle #4: Fields vs Dalton

“Rex is our quarterback.”

I’m still calling for a vague injury after Dalton gets destroyed behind what is now a suspect offensive line against the Rams week 1. Too bad because Fields could actually give the Bears a chance to win that game. If Nagy keeps Dalton in over Fields beyond that, expect calls for his head to get deafening in Chicago. If he keeps him in beyond week 4and the Bears are losing, Nagy and Pace should both be fired.

Fantasy Implications: Bump Rams Defense, Allen Robinson

QB Battle #5: Lance vs Garroppolo

At some point, probably against the Packers, 49ers fans will see this announcement and collectively lose their shit. However Lance has looked shaky at times during the preseason and might actually benefit from sitting for a game or three. But that’s it.

I originally predicted at the start of camps that we may not see Lance until November. I think he has greatly accelerated that timeline, but Jimmy will start the season and likely pile up a few wins. However, if Rodgers builds to a big lead in week 3, we may see a switch at halftime.

Fantasy Implications: Bump Deebo, Mostert; Downgrade Sherfield

Fake QB Battle: Trevor Lawrence vs Gaslighting

I’m not even going to write about Lawrence or his preseason. Instead I am going to write about what a clueless, inept jackass his coach is.

We have not even finished the preseason and he is already losing the locker room. And he tried really, really hard to do it. Urban Meyer has already proven that he is totally unfit for the NFL, and Shahid Khan is an idiot for bringing him out of retirement.

Meyer could have, at any point, looked at what had not worked for other college coaches making the transition to the pros, and learned from their mistakes. He could have realized that he is now dealing with professionals, not kids (Saban), and that gimmicky crap doesn’t work (Kelly).

Instead, he chose not to learn anything and immediately began repeating their mistakes, essentially gaslighting his number 1 pick and the media with a laughably false QB “competition” and bringing back Tim Tebow.

He has started off by insulting his number 1 pick and the entire NFL community in general, insulting every player on the camp roster by giving a spot to someone who hadn’t played a snap of pro football for years, and oh yeah, hiring a racist on staff.

I hate this for Lawrence, as he is saddled with a coach clearly out of his depth who refuses to learn, and an owner who clearly doesn’t give two shits about his team. He’s a good kid and a huge talent and if Meyer stays in Jacksonville past this season, his career and talent are going to be wasted.

I’m also sorry for anyone in Jacksonville who had hope for this team after wallowing in mediocrity for years. Because if Kahn cared or knew what he was doing, Eric Bienemy would currently be your head coach and you would be looking at a potentially great run with Lawrence under center. Instead you got a clown, hired by a clown, and a really shitty circus.

Fantasy Implications: Trade all Jags, this is going to be a shit-show

Do You Have to Take Mahomes #1 in Superflex?

This is probably the biggest question in Superflex and 2QB redraft leagues.

And it’s not an easy one to answer. On the one hand, as the above two rounds of best ball suggest, not taking a QB with the first pick basically guarantees you miss out on the top QBs. Even Brady went before it came back to the turn.

While one could certainly make a case for Allen or Murray over Mahomes, there’s really only one other player who could take the #1 spot, and that’s McCaffrey.

So this comes down to your faith in your projections and the advantage of the player you take over who will come back to you at the turn. The player in this $35 best ball league opted to not take a QB after Mahomes and with good reason. PPR standard scoring.

Value-Based Drafting Differentials

If the team in the first spot had not taken Mahomes, they probably would have locked up at least one starting QB in their next two. Since they are back to back the pick values are the same. So let’s look at Mahomes vs next best available at QB, who I have as Ryan Tannehill with a modest 3% improvement over last year with Julio in the fold. I have Mahomes at a 7% improvement over last season due to o-line improvements and to account for his one missed game. For consistency I will calculate per-game on a 16-game season

QBSeason Point ProjectionPer Game Differential
Patrick Mahomes401+2.8
Ryan Tannehill356-2.8

Now of course these are just projections, but considering I am bumping Mahomes more than Tannehill, I think they are solid. So a 2.8 ppg difference over next best available QB at the turn.

Comparing CMC with the next best available, clearly Ekeler since he was picked at that spot by the team that went with Mahomes. Both Ekeler and McCaffrey have wider variances of projections due to multiple missed games last year. McCaffrey played in just 3 games, 2 of which he was at less than 100%, but still saw 18 carries. This should give him a 5.3x multiplier, but those would be insane numbers so I backed it off to a 4.5x given the small sample size.

Ekeler started 10 games but really only played in nine since he saw only 2 carries before getting injured last year. This gives him a 1.7x multiplier but I bumped it to 1.85x to factor in improvement from Herbert. So let’s see what the does to the value of this pick.

RBSeason Point ProjectionPer Game Differential
Christian McCaffrey407+6.3
Austin Ekeler306-6.3

Of course we are looking at the 1st slot in a vaccum of the first two picks. But in terms of pure VBD comparison, given that there are:

  • two QB slots (Superflex basically mandates starting a QB in that slot to be competitive on a weekly basis)
  • two required RB slots (there is a third WR/RB/TE flex)
  • that there are probably as many unstartable QBs (thinking Goff, Jones, Darnold, Bridge)
  • as there are RBs that are either in committees or just altogether wretched (Ronald Jones/Fournette/Gio, Williams/Gordon, David Johnson/Lindsay/Ingram, Coleman/Johnson/Carter, Singletary/Moss)

I think drafters at the 1 slot should not feel like they have to take Mahomes or whoever they have as QB1 to be competitive. You are always trading value at one position for value at another in the first few rounds when you should always be taking best available.

Next Best Player Differential

Another thing to consider is does the player you take at the 1 spot give you an advantage over any other player at the position, and is it significant?

After Mahomes Murray and Allen are pretty consistently next in line in some order, so these are the consensus top 3. You want an advantage over all players at the position if you take someone #1.

QBSeason Point ProjectionPer Game Differential
Patrick Mahomes401
Josh Allen400-.16
Kyler Murray398-.19

There is basically no difference between them, and I have Dak ranked above all three. One might say this is moot given that there is no way any of these guys make it back, but is it?

Compare that with McCaffrey against the other two consensus top-3 RBs in Kamara and Cook. It’s not much but it is a different picture.

RBSeason Point ProjectionPer Game Differential
Christian McCaffrey407
Alvin Kamara397-.63
Dalvin Cook388-1.19

Again not a huge difference but a much better advantage against nearest competition, and this is assuming a full season from all three players, without much of a bump for anyone outside of that. In fact, given the sample size we are not giving McCaffrey his full multiplier to account for all the games he missed.

I’ll be live-tweeting the results as well as post the full board here once it’s finished.

Top QB2 Draft Targets for 2QB and Superflex Leagues

2QB Leagues are rarely won on the strength of the QB1. Most competitive teams will field an especially strong QB since few teams are waiting to draft their first QB.

Having a strong QB2 is essential, and knowing where the value exists at that position is key. Teams that opt for safety at this position usually sacrifice valuable players at important skill positions like WR2 and WR3 and RB3 when they grab “safe” QB2s in the mid-rounds.

For the purposes of this article I am using 2QB ADP rankings from fantasyfootballcalculator.com and we are only looking at QB13 and above (assuming a 12-team league). If for some reason someone like Brady, Hurts, or Tannehill falls into your hands in later rounds, jump on that opportunity as long as you’ve secured both starting RBs and at least two starting WRs.

This article will assume your draftmates know what they are doing, and as always we will embrace upside and risk over security.

QB2 Target #1: Jameis Winston

As I mentioned in my perfect draft article, I think Winston is a potential league winner in 2QB leagues this year:

What if I told you the league-leader in passing yards just two years ago would be available in the 10th round in a 2QB league? What if I told you that quarterback played with poor vision and had corrective surgery AFTER this season? And what if I told you this same QB got to sit and learn behind one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, and gets to play for one of the top offensive minds in the NFL, and is about to be handed the keys to one of the better offensive systems of the past decade?

-Yours truly

Winston is safely available in the 10th round, and even better, if you are looking for insurance against a total implosion, you can get Taysom Hill one round later. Realistically though, I don’t think Payton would start him if he didn’t think he had exorcized Winston’s turnover demons.

Winston doesn’t have to totally cure his decision-making woes to perform like a top-8 QB this year. He just has to curb them enough to not put the Saints in a position to lose winnable games, which will result in him getting yanked for Hill quick.

Given his upside (at least 4700 passing yards and 30+ TDs) there is no other QB available this late who can deliver those kind of stats. He’s worth the risk.

QB2 Target #2: Joe Burrow

Credit: WAFB

Burrow is barely a QB2 at his fourth round ADP and QB13. But after he caught his stride as a rookie, before his knee injury, Burrow was performing like a top-five QB as a rookie with one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.

Much has been made of one beat writer report during camp that claimed Burrow was looking scared in the pocket and missing throws that seemed like “layups” last season.

Since that reports, beat writers are reporting steady progression.

I think Burrow may have another shaky week before he hits full stride, but also think there are few QBs available after the first 12 with his combo of talent, volume, and skill players around him. Cincinnati has one of the most talented WR trios in the NFL along with Dallas and Tampa, and despite lingering concerns about the offensive line, I think Burrow is poised for a potential top-10 finish, especially in leagues that offer yardage bonuses.

QB2 Target #3: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Credit: Business Insider

If there is a better guy to root for in the NFL, I don’t know who it is. But at a 6th-round ADP, we need more than a good story to settle on for Fitzmagic as a QB2.

Was he that good with Miami last year? Yes and no (literally). His splits are downright schizo. In the first 6 games, he had three games where he threw for under 200 yards, and three games where he threw for over 300. He had a QB rating as high as 154.5 and as low as 44.6. In two games he had a total of five picks and zero TDs. In another three he had seven scores and no picks.

So is there really reason to believe that Fitz will even out in his 16th year in the league? Basically no. He will have better weapons this year, and for the first time in a while no one knocking on the door, but if you draft Fitz as your QB2 be ready for a roller coaster.

QB2 Target #4: Matt Ryan

Credit: Blogging Dirty

Matt Ryan is the anti-Fitz: a picture of consistency, and for some reason a guy I absolutely can not stand. Maybe it’s his goofy-ass face.

But the guy is practically a lock for 4500+ yards and 25+ TDs every year, and even at his 5th-round ADP, he should probably be above Fitz. We know he will give owners at least 3, maybe 5 weeks where he finishes top-five, and with Pitts replacing Julio, one could argue his team actually upgraded his pass catchers.

It’s just that his upside is so limited, and his outcome so predictable. I’d rather roll the dice with Fitz and take a WR or RB in round five before they dry up.

QB2 Targets #5/6: Justin Fields and Trey Lance

Credit: NBC Sports

These guys are basically identical in skill sets, situations, coaches being dumbasses and trying to ignore reality, and season outlook. Both Shanahan and Nagy are desperately trying to avoid the glaringly obvious: these guys are ready to start week 1, and they are not going to do their teams (or their careers) any favors by starting the veterans.

Dalton, while serviceable, is long past his prime, and Jimmy G just never really became that good. The coachspeak is still going strong, and unfortunately I think both of these guys will miss the first few games of the season in the name of pure obstinance. But both are available in round 8, and once they hit the field, I like both better as weekly plays than Lawrence.

If you can tolerate a less-than ideal QB2 the first few weeks (like Goff, available in round 12-13), then targeting one of these guys in the 8th isn’t a bad strategy.

QB2 Target #7: Trevor Lawrence

Credit: ESPN

Speaking of guys you don’t want to root for, there’s Trevor staring at you in round 5. Personally I won’t be drafting him because if I’m going to pay that price, I’d rather just take someone boring and predictable like Ryan than risk going through the inevitable rookie jitters the first few weeks.

But since he is always compared to Andrew Luck, let’s just assume he does something akin to Luck’s rookie year: about 4300 yards, around 23 TDs, and 18 INTs. Good, but not great QB2 numbers.

The Rest

Tua is not a terrible pick in round 6, but I want more than just a shot at mediocrity for that level of investment. Derek Carr and Sam Darnold in the ninth are decent warm bodies to fill the slot, but brutally uninspiring. After that, the only ones worth consideration are pairing Cam with Mac Jones, but only if you have bench spots to burn. If not it’s a good situation to avoid as neither one will perform great when they do start. Probably the best of the rest is Roethlisberger in round 7, but as previously stated I think I would rather roll with Fields or Lance and take my early-season lumps.

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