UPDATE: Mike Williams is on the COVID list which bumps Herbert down.
Last week I predicted Mahomes would come roaring out of the bye and put up the type of performance we have all come to know, love, and expect from the unquestioned first QB off the board. Obviously I was pretty off. Mahomes finished with just 184 yards and no touchdowns, which put him behind names like Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton, and Taylor Heinicke.
However I feel pretty good about my #2 pick Brady (QB2, 368-4) and #3 pick Kyler Murray (QB1, 123-2, 59-2). Stafford, my QB4 finished as QB5 with 295-3, beaten out by Taysom HIll with 264-2, 101.
This is the last week before the playoffs begin, so getting things right this week is crucial. Let’s take a closer look at our QB Sit/Start decisions for Superflex leagues in week 14.
Obvious QB1 Starts
Dak Prescott vs WFT: WFT is #1 in fantasy points per game allowed to QBs on the year, and while they have improved to middle of the pack since week 8, I still have a feeling this is Dak’s week to finish as QB1. Cooper should be fully healthy and Gallup is back, and the running game just isn’t getting it done, at least as long as the Cowboys keep feeding Zeke.
Josh Allen vs the Bucs: After enduring the wind bowl, Josh gets sunny Tampa and their middle of the pack pass defense. I think an offensive explosion on both sides of the ball is called for after we watched 1950s football in the wind bowl.
Aaron Rodgers vs the Bears: This game is in Lambeau and Rodgers does just own the Bears. He’s 21-5 against the Bears, who are at the bottom of the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Rodgers is on a hot streak, cresting 300 yards and throwing 6 TDs in his last two starts. He makes a fantastic start this week.
Lamar Jackson vs the Browns: His last outing against the Browns wasn’t great (46.5 QBR due to 4 picks) but he righted the ship against Pittsburg and his rushing floor dictates he shouldn’t be much lower than this. Strong start this week.
Kyler Murray vs the Rams: While the Rams are not the defensive stalwart we once thought, they are a much tougher matchup than Chicago. I’d expect more passing from Murray as this game figures to be down to the wire. Maybe one rushing TD but certainly not two.
Tom Brady vs the Bills: The Bills are still one of the toughest defenses in the league and especially hard on quarterbacks. Maybe that had something to do with Mac Jones’s 3 pass attempts on Monday night. I think Brady will have a good game and is a mid-QB1 start this week, but nothing close to last week.
Mathew Stafford vs the Cardinals: Stafford will need several good streaks to match this ranking. Odell clearly is not adding much to this offense and I think Stafford and McVay have realized that force-feeding him targets is not really helping the team. I think another outing of 270-310 yards and 3 touchdowns seems right.
Taysom Hill vs the Jets: I probably have Hill too low again given that he’s going to be running all over the Jets, but his hand injury worries me for his passing output. Very strong start.
Patrick Mahomes vs the Raiders: Mahomes has simply put too much great play on tape to not call him an automatic QB1 start. However, very little of that tape will feature 2021. I feel like another explosion is inevitable, but fear it may not come in time for his owners banking on his greatness for a playoff berth. 230-2 seems about right, which will probably be good for QB10 as long as he sprinkles in a few runs.
Joe Burrow vs the 49ers: If not for a mind-boggling tipped ball interception from Chase, Burrow would have had another 50 yards and a TD added to his 300-1-2 line. One of these weeks it’s going to all pull together for Burrow, but I’m not sure it’s this week. I still think he’s a solid low-end QB1 and a fantastic QB2 if you’re lucky enough to have him and one of the guys above.
Justin Herbert vs the Giants: He’s riding high after a QB3 finish and faces the Giants who have no offense and very little defense. But he’s now most likely without his top two wideouts in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. He still has his tight ends and Ekeler and Jalen Guyton, but this hurts his prospects significantly.
Russell Wilson vs the Texans: Believe it or not the Texans are giving up the fourth fewest fantasy points to QBs since week 9. Not sure why this is, probably because they put up so little fight that most teams can just run out the clock starting in the third quarter. With Davis Mills back under center things should improve for the Texans a little, and Wilson is improving albeit slowly. If this is finally the week they feature Metcalf, he could end up much higher.
Solid QB2 Starts
Jimmy G vs the Bengals
The Bengals defense is floundering especially against the pass. And Jimmy has been playing better ball than you think lately. Always dealing with a changing cast of characters, Jimmy focused on his best receiver in Kittle and put up 299-2-2.
Above average play
I like Jimmy as a strong QB2 this week and based on the day Herbert had, I don’t think the Bengals constitute a huge upgrade in terms of defensive opponent.
Kirk Cousins vs the Steelers
Cousins is about as all over the place, literally. He lined up behind a guard against the 49ers.
Still, in five of his 12 games he has gone for over 300 yards passing, and has four games with 3 TDs. You can’t count him out as a high-end QB2, even on a Thursday night game. The Steelers defense is nothing special, so start with confidence as long as you don’t have two of the QBs listed above.
Derek Carr vs the Chiefs
Normally one would start any viable QB against Mahomes simply out of anticipation of a shoot-out, and Carr is good at those. However, Mahomes is not producing the offense he once did and the Chiefs are actually one of the better defenses in the league, ranking fifth against opposing QBs the since week 8. I don’t have the faith in Carr that I once did, but he’s still a solid QB2 start this week.
Taylor Heinicke vs the Cowboys
This kid needs a nickname, like Headband Johnny or Mr. Fantastic. For now I’m just going to go with Rudy. The kid has plus athleticism and always seems to play above his God-given ability, which is somewhere around the Case Keenum range. Anyway, as good as the Cowboys have been on defense, they actually rank 16th in fantasy points allowed to QBs, so there’s good reason for having Heinicke listed as a solid QB2 start.
Questionable QB2 Starts
Justin Fields vs the Packers
A) it’s the Packers. They just destroy the Bears. B) We don’t know to what degree he is healed from his rib injury. C) Allen Robinson has seemingly played his last down for the Bears and I can’t blame him. But one would hope, emphasis on hope, that faced with a matchup they are almost certain to lose, that Nagy completely takes the reins off and lets Fields use his legs and his cannon of an arm. Mooney can burn the Packers defense, and Kmet has come a long way this season. Fields averaged 7.2 ypc against the Packers in October. Let’s hope he sees way more than the 6 carries he saw then. I’d start Fields against most options at the Superflex unless you have someone like Elijah Moore in that spot.
Ryan Tannehill vs the Jaguars
In his last matchup with the Jags he posted a 108 QBR but only 197 yards passing. Since then Tannehill has been all over the map, and he’s down to some pretty bad options surrounding him. Julio might be back this week, might not (they did activate him off IR). I wouldn’t trust Tannehill for more than about 210-1-2 and if that is good enough to start for your team start away. If you need more I would look at other options.
Teddy Bridgewater vs the Saints
Is there a player more boring than Teddy? I don’t think so. You’re practically guaranteed something between 200-250 yards and maybe a score. He plays Detroit who should be good for some easy points but they may have a fire lit under them after their first win. Not a great start but likely better than most flex options at other positions.
Zach Wilson vs the Saints
The burgeoning connection with Elijah Moore is great news for Wilson and his owners. He’s still, at best, a barely startable QB, BUT the Saints are ranked dead last over the past five weeks in fpa to QBs. So he’s a hold your nose start this week.
At this point in the season you should either be planning for gaps in your playoff weeks with the waiver wire. If you are counting on someone off the wire to get you into the playoffs, then your stint in the playoffs if you do make it is likely to be short-lived.
However given the bloodbath at running back we saw in week 12, probably a lot of rosters that are locked into the playoffs are scrambling to cover.
In the battle of the backups, Mattison outperformed Jamaal Williams with 22 carries for 91 yards and a score, with an extra 34 yards through the air. Williams played well with 17 for 71 but only one catch for 9 yards. Chuba Hubbard was on bye.
Boston Scott did absolutely nothing for the Eagles, and we don’t really know why. Sanders reinjured himself so Scott may be worth holding onto through the Eagles week 14 bye, but there isn’t much evidence to suggest that he is.
Let’s take a look at our waiver wire pickups for week 14 and see who can help us in the playoffs.
Waiver Wire Quarterbacks for Week 14
Honestly I can’t really recommend adding anyone from this list, but for the truly desperate, here are some reasons for optimism.
Zach Wilson, 6% rostered
His rapport is established with Elijah Moore who saw 30+% of his teams targets. Wilson did better as a result, and he gets the Jags week 16 of the playoffs. Other than that he is borderline unusable, playing the Saints this week and then getting Miami week 15, and Tampa Bay week 17. Tampa Bay is no longer a plus matchup for QBs.
Jared Goff, 6% rostered
Goff gets Denver this week, then Arizona week 15, Atlanta week 16, and Seattle week 17. Two good matchups on paper for the playoffs, and he finally discovered he has a talented rookie to throw to. Tough to trust under the best of circumstances.
Drops: Baker, Lawrence
Waiver Wire Running Backs for Week 14
Do not add Travis Homer based on points. His TD was a 78-yarder that came on a fake punt. Will not happen again.
Kenneth Gainwell, 12% rostered
Is Gainwell to backup to own in Philly? He was week 13 when he delivered 12-54-1 rushing line plus 5 catches for 33 yards. Will he be in week 15 when the Eagles come back from their bye? Impossible to say. Gainwell does get WFT, NYG, WFT for the playoff weeks so not bad in terms of potential opponents.
Drop: Boston Scott
Waiver Wire Wide Receivers for Week 14
Well at least we get a slightly more promising crop at the wide receiver position, but few of these guys are likely to repeat their performances.
Amon Ra St. Brown, 6% rostered
The rookie finally exploded when it was way too late to make a difference in Detroit’s season, but he did help them get their first and likely only win this season with 10 catches of 12 targets for 86 yards and a score. The Lions have no reason not to feature him and see what they have before the 2022 draft. He gets Airzona week 15, then Atlanta and Seattle, so a decent playoff schedule.
KJ Osborn, 4% rostered
With Adam Thielen injured and likely to miss the Thursday night matchup with the Steelers, its likely that Osborn sees more attention in week 14, but his playoff schedule is not great with the Bears, Rams, and Packers on tap.
Laquon Treadwell, 0% rostered
Despite the absolute rout last week, Treadwell managed 62 yards on 4 catches for the Jags. He gets Tennessee this week before a playoff schedule of the Texans, Jets, and Patriots. He could prove useful as he appears to be Jacksonville’s WR1 for some reason.
Drops: Shenault, Raymond, Bryan Edwards
Waiver Wire Tight Ends for Week 14
Tyler Conklin, 30% rostered
Conklin will also receive additional attention with Thielen out, and caught 7 of 9 targets this past week for 56 yards. His playoff schedule is not that favorable, same as Osborn (obviously) so think of him as a one-week filler.
Cole Kmet, 26% rostered
Kmet saw his targets drop from 11 in week 12 to 7 in week 13, but I think he still makes for a decent TE2 down the stretch. He gets the Packers this week, but has the Vikings, Seahawks, and Giants in the playoffs. He’s getting steady attention and there just aren’t that many targets for the Bears.
Drops: Fant, Uzomah
Streaming DST for Week 14 and Playoffs
Chargers, 26% rostered
The Chargers get the Giants this week making them an excellent streamer, but also get the Texans week 16 and the Broncos week 17. Just have other plans for week 15 when they play the chiefs.
Steelers, 46% rostered
Do we trust the Steelers after holding the Ravens to 19 points? I’m not even sure if they can be trusted this week against the Vikings, who did manage to crack 30 even in a loss to Detroit. The main reason I like them is for their week 17 matchup against Cleveland, as Baker Mayfield should be some kind of cyborg by then.
Week 12 had only a few surprises in terms of QB finishes. Wentz cracked the top 5 with 306 yards and three touchdowns against the Bucs. Mac Jones broke form and delivered a great fantasy day against Tennessee, posting 310 yards and two touchdowns with no picks. And Trevor Lawrence came in at QB10 with 228-1 passing with a pick and 5-39 rushing.
Lamar Jackson disappointed with four picks to go along with 165-1 passing and 17-68 rushing. Brady fell flat as well finishing as QB20 with only 226-1-1 passing as Leonard Fournette put the team on his back with four touchdowns.
Week 13 is shaping up as a great week for DSTs, with New England’s torrid defense neutralizing a top-five QB in Josh Allen, but there are some great starts, beginning with Patrick Mahomes at QB1 for week 13. Check out our superflex QB sit/start for the week.
Obvious QB1 Starts
Patrick Mahomes vs the Broncos: Denver finds themselves in the bottom half of the league in opponent passing yards per game, and you have to think the Mahomes we will see coming out of the bye is closer to week 10 than week 11.
Tom Brady vs the Falcons: The last time these two teams faced off Brady threw five TDs. The Falcons have gotten appreciably worse since that week 2 game. The only risk to Brady’s production is the total ineptitude of the Falcons offense, which may lead to a heavy dose of Fournette in the second half.
Kyler Murray vs the Bears: Murray gets his first game back in Chicago against the Bears, who are giving up 226 ypg to opposing passers at home this year. They’ve been better recently, but those games came against Detroit, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. Kyler should be more than ready to go after the bye and he gets Hopkins back as well.
Matthew Stafford vs the Jaguars: There’s no question that Stafford is off on his throws some of the time, but he managed to overcome that last week for 302 yards and 3 touchdowns. The connection with OBJ was established even though there were several misses. The Jags have played well against opposing QBs but lately those are names like Matt Ryan, Jimmy Garoppolo and Carson Wentz. They did shut down Josh Allen in week 9, so they still may not be the pushover Stafford owners are hoping for. Still I think Stafford hits his rhythm at some point and posts a big game.
Lamar Jackson vs the Steelers: Lamar has not been great lately, but the Steelers couldn’t stop anything through the air or on the ground against the Bengals. That bodes well for Lamar’s output, which I think includes two passing scores and one rushing score.
Josh Allen vs the Patriots: Tough to have him this low after last week, but this Patriot defense is going HAM right now and I can see them completely shutting down Buffalo. Like 13 points shutting them down. Allen is too good to have any lower as he does possess the ability to beat a really good defense on his best day, but this will have to be his best day.
Dak Prescott vs the Saints: Dak has been crazy inconsistent this year. But his peak games are week-winners, like his 375-2 game last week, or his 445-3 game week 6, or his 403-3 game week 1. New Orleans is keeping opponents under 200 yards passing their last three, but allowing 250 on the year. I don’t think we see a peak game as I expect New Orleans to run the ball effectively and control clock, but I think 275-3 is well within a reasonable range of outcomes.
Justin Herbert vs the Bengals: 3 out of his last 4 games he has gone over 300 yards, and Cincy is in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed. With both offenses firing, expect a high-scoring game (over/under set at 50.5) and Herbert to be the primary beneficiary.
Kirk Cousins vs the Lions: Andy Dalton just dropped 300 passing on the Lions. Cousins should shred them especially without Dalvin Cook doing so much damage on the ground. 320-3 seems completely reasonable.
Joe Burrow vs the Chargers: The primary danger to Burrow’s value rest of season is the quality of the opponent and Joe Mixon. Mixon is having a career year due to Cincy’s overwhelming presence to lean on the ground game whenever possible. The Chargers are top five against the pass on the year but in the bottom half of the league their last three. Also their run defense has stiffened as of late, dropping to just 3.6 ypc allowed vs the 4.7 average over the year. Those games came against Denver, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota, so a mix of great running backs and mediocre to decent passing. There’s reason to believe that the Chargers keep this game very close, and Cincinnati will find itself behind at some point. All that bodes well for an up week for Burrow.
Derek Carr vs the WFT: Carr has not been great his last three but showed out against Dallas on Thanksgiving, and that’s not an easy defense to drop 373 on. WFT, however, is, so expect Carr to get back to his high-yardage totals against them in what should be a close matchup.
Tua Tagovailoa vs the Giants: Tua had a crazy efficient day vs Carolina, with 27 completions against just 4 incompletions and no picks. It wasn’t the best fantasy day, but Carolina remains a competent defense, and though the Giants almost shut out the Eagles, I think we have to chalk that up to a meltdown game from Hurts, as they are middle of the pack in passing yardage allowed on the year. I expect a slightly more productive fantasy day for Tua, something like 275-2.
QB Starts with Some Risk
Jalen Hurts vs the Jets
So obviously the opponent is not the concern here. Hurts is supposedly running on a bum wheel and if Hurts can’t run effectively, what is he? A terrible quarterback. He was a terrible quarterback last week and didn’t go into it with a bum ankle. How bad?
This bad
Sub 50% completions, no touchdowns, 3 picks, just bad bad bad. And that was against the Giants. Now, as I wrote in my column asking if he is actually good at football, Hurts is going to require some patience, just like Lamar did. The primary difference between them as young players is the Ws and Ls, where Hurts is falling way short. While it’s hard to bench him against the Jets, if I had two players from the above I wouldn’t hesitate. It all depends on how well he can move.
Taysom Hill vs the Cowboys
I wouldn’t bench Hill for inferior options, but even with his rushing ability I would hesitate to expect too much in his first game against Dallas. He should have a good rushing floor, but with Kamara out and no one to fear in the receiver ranks, wouldn’t it be smart to spy Hill the whole game to limit that rushing ability. Dare the kid to beat you with his arm? Seems like that is exactly what Quinn is going to do which could be disastrous, could be ok. HIll has shown some promise as a passer, but it isn’t his strength. The range of outcomes here is super wide, but he’s a start over the options below.
Mac Jones vs the Bills
Jones finally pulled together a fantasy-worthy game against Tennessee. 310 yards, two touchdowns, no picks. Good for a QB7 finish.
And now he gets the Bills. The Bills are second in the league in passing yards allowed, and second in yards per rushing attempt allowed. They have softened against the run a bit, and I’m sure Belichik is counting on his defense to win this one. I don’t think Jones will be able to repeat last week as he sees fewer passing attempts. Still a good QB2 start, but won’t finish anywhere near the top ten this week.
Carson Wentz vs the Texans
It’s Carson Wentz, but it’s also the Texans. Even Zach Wilson beats the Texans. He won’t have another top-five finish this week but 250-2 seems about right.
Taylor Heinicke vs the Raiders
RUDY!!!!! You gotta love this kid, no talent, all heart. I think he manages a decent game against a soft defense, but he’s low-end QB2 material in superflex. Temper expectations, but his rushing floor is enough to make him good for about QB17.
Russell Wilson vs the 49ers
Russ managed a decent game despite what was a pitiful effort in real life. Something is wrong with him. He’s sailing passes over his target’s heads and totally ignoring DK Metcalf. He’s not running enough to overcome his lack of accuracy and Carrol’s allergic reaction to risk. I don’t see a top-15 finish this week for Russ against a 49ers team that is built to control the clock and beat you on the ground.
QBs to Bench for Better Options
Andy Dalton vs the Cardinals: Unlikely to string two good games together against the Cards.
Jimmy Garoppolo vs the Seahawks: Barely a part of the offense most weeks, pretty much the definition of a game manager.
Tryod Taylor vs the Colts: Another really tough matchup, and honestly I don’t see why Tyrod is starting. He’s obviously not a starter at this point in his career. Mills at least might be.
Teddy Bridgewater vs the Chiefs: Another caretaker against another really tough defense, and he’s injured as well.
Matt Ryan vs the Bucs: There are no quicker ways to age yourself than watching Matt Ryan play football.
Trevor Lawrence vs the Rams: Doing better but I don’t want Meyer’s play-calling setting him up against Von Miller and Aaron Donald.
Ben Roethlisberger vs the Ravens: No.
Jared Goff vs Anyone, but the Vikings this week: Double no.
Zach Wilson vs the Eagles: God help you.
Mike Glennon vs the Dolphins: Start anyone else, a third string tight end, anything.
This past weekend was probably the most destructive to fantasy rosters we have seen in a long time. Dalvin Cook injured his shoulder and chest and is out a minimum of two weeks. Christian McCaffrey is back on IR ending his season. Deebo Samuel pulled his groin and is out 2-3 weeks. Swift had to leave the game against the Bears early with a shoulder injury and is unlikely to face the Vikings week 13.
For teams vying for playoff spots these losses are hard to overcome, especially given that almost all of the prime handcuffs are owned even in shallow redraft leagues.
Jamal Williams is 41% owned, Chuba Hubbard is 40% owned, and Alexander Mattison is 53% owned. All should be right around 100% following waivers tonight.
As decimated as the RB landscape was, QB took a hit as well, with the wheels coming violently off the Cam Newton bandwagon. Fields is likely back for week 13 and has cracked ribs, so he can’t be counted on. But you can’t burn a waiver on Dalton with the expectation that he won’t start. Flacco will backup Zach Wilson who remains unstartable. Mayfield is strung together with duct tape but his coach says he won’t consider benching him. Bridgewater is hobbled but will play after having to gut out the game last week.
In other words, this weekend sucked for those with top tier running backs or those in Superflex relying on streaming QBs. Let’s attempt to pick up the pieces in this weeks waiver wire column. Given where we are in the season your FAAB bid should be whatever you have left.
Waiver Wire Quarterbacks for Week 13
Trevor Lawrence, 30% rostered
Lawrence faces the Rams next week, but that might not be such a bad thing. He showed some signs of life last week posting his first game over 200 yards passing since week 8. The Rams were helpless against Aaron Rodgers, and I fully expect the Rams to score big against the Jags, meaning he should get some quality garbage time to rack up yards and possibly scores. The kid is good, he just has a terrible team and a terrible head coach. Best option available at this point in the season.
Andy Dalton (if Fields is ruled out), 3% rostered
If Fields sits Dalton is a good play for a week as Nagy inexplicably decided to throw his way to an embarrassing victory against the worst team in the league. Dalton is still capable of big games as he showed last week.
Waiver Wire Running Backs for Week 13
Obviously if any of the aforementioned running backs are available (Mattison, Hubbard, Williams, in that order) make them your top add and spend whatever you have.
Boston Scott, 20% rostered
Scott typically has big games against the Giants and he came through last week, but that’s no reason to ignore him down the stretch. The Eagles will remain the most run-heavy team in the league for the rest of the season, and he should continue to at least be a decent 1b to Sanders’s 1a. Hurts is hogging carries as well, but if Scott can get 9-12 carries and 3-4 targets he’ll be good for flex.
Ameer Abdullah, 1% rostered
Hubbard will be the dominant back absent McCaffrey but Adbullah should see passing down work, and we can expect negative gamescript for Carolina for the rest of the season. They have a bye this week but he could help fill backfield holes after.
Austin Walter, 0% rostered
Walter saw some decent run for the Jets last week and he’s mired in a committee, on the JETS, but here we are. The talent ahead of him is mediocre enough to where he could seize the role as long as Carter is out, and that at least makes him rosterable. Keep expectations low.
Waiver Wire Wide Receivers Week 13
Russell Gage, 17% rostered
Gage has seen 15 targets over the past two games and Ryan and the Falcons simply aren’t willing to risk throwing into tight or double coverage to get Pitts going. Gage is not an exciting option but is one that will get targets on an offense with very little else going for it.
Josh Reynolds, 1% rostered
Reynolds notched 70 yards against the Bears and for what it’s worth has a connection with Goff from their time together in LA. He’s barely played this year so at least there’s a chance he could do something with increased targets, and he has zero competition for those or snaps. Opportunity abounds, but it’s the Lions so temper expectations.
DeSean Jackson, 5% rostered
A low-volume lottery ticket, Jackson turned back the clock and scored a 50+ yard TD last week against the Cowboys. Could it happen again? Yes. Is it likely to happen again this week? I’d say about as likely as Cam Newton making a legit comeback, but hey, people believed in that.
Waiver Wire Tight Ends Week 13
Jack Doyle, 1% rostered
Doyle has seen 17 targets over the last three weeks and finally had a big game last week, notching 80+ and a score. Outside of Pittman there is no real competition for targets in Indianapolis, so Doyle is worth a flier to see if he can continue to command attention from Wentz.
Cole Kmet, 24% rostered
After disappearing against Baltimore, Kmet once again popped with 6 of 11 targets for 65 yards. Sadly, in today’s NFL, that was good for TE7 finish on the week. The Bears running game was ineffective and summarily abandoned against the Lions, and I guess Bears management got painted into a corner of keeping Nagy for another week. So expect the offense to remain fairly stagnant, and feature lots of passing, because analytics or some crap.
