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Update: Ertz on track to play, downgrade Goedert
Are people that took Kyle Pitts ahead of TJ Hockenson going to be regretting it all year? If the playcalling doesn’t change immediately in Atlanta, yes, and even if it does Hockenson could stay red hot.
The tight end position as a whole is looking up, but let’s drill in on these two for a look at where Pitts might be going.
First of all, let’s address Arthur Smith’s playcalling. I could write an entire article pointing just how predictable and chicken-shit Smith’s play calls were. Pitts was not in the game on the team’s first trip to the red zone (field goal), and Smith was either running on third and long or passing to the fullback behind the line of scrimmage late in the game down big. In other words, inscrutable, infuriating coaching from the beginning to the end of the Falcons’ humiliating defeat.
However, Pitts did tie for a team-high 8 targets, and was in for 68% of snaps and was usually lined up out wide. In other words, the snap-share aside, he was playing a role much closer to what Julio did for the Falcons than a traditional tight end. Hurst was in for 60%, meaning the Falcons are running a lot of two TE but Pitts was winning out on in 1 TE sets. Further, the game was an absolute embarrassment. It’s hard to believe that Smith sticks to what he did week 1 in week 2.
Let’s compare to TJ Hockenson, who was the best TE not named Kelce, Waller, and Kittle (and was arguably better than Kittle). Hockenson saw 11 targets, and was in on 85% of snaps. If we are taking TJ Hockenson as the goal for Kyle Pitts, given Pitts’s usage and overall game plan week 1, I think that’s attainable. Hock had 3 more targets, a 6.4 ADOT, and more reliance on passing for 1st downs. Pitts had a 7.5 ADOT in what should be the Falcon’s worst game of the season. Hold or buy low folks.
Tight End Rankings Week 2
| Rank | Name | Opponent |
|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | Steelers | |
| Travis Kelce | Ravens | |
| George Kittle | Eagles | |
| TJ Hockenson | Packers | |
| Mark Andrews | Chiefs | |
| Rob Gronkowski | Falcons | |
| Kyle Pitts | Buccaneers | |
| Logan Thomas | Giants | |
| Tyler Higbee | Colts | |
| Noah Fant | Jaguars | |
| Jonnu Smith | Jets | |
| Jared Cook | Cowboys | |
| Pharoah Brown | Browns | |
| Dallas Goedert | 49ers | |
| James O’Shaugnassey | Broncos | |
| Cole Kmet | Bengals | |
| David NJoku | Texans | |
| Adam Trautman | Panthers | |
| Gerald Everett | Titans | |
| Blake Jarwin | Chargers | |
| Dawson Knox | Dolphins | |
| Will Dissly | Titans | |
| Anthony Firkser | Seahawks | |
Darren Waller is on pace for 350 targets this year as Derek Carr just continues to ignore everyone else on the team. It worked, so don’t expect it to change. Mark Andrews absolutely has to step up against the Chiefs, and maybe watching Kelce do it better from the sidelines will inspire him more than his new contract.
Gronk is back until further notice, and Logan Thomas should be the lone bright spot for the WFT passing game once again with Bradberry blanketing McLaurin. The connection is already there, he’s as good a play as this game will offer. Watch the injury reports on Ertz, if he sits Goedert is a solid TE1 play against the 49ers who just gave up a huge game to Hockenson. Noah Fant should be great against the Jags who let Pharoah Brown (who?) have a big game. As long as Meyer is coach, the Jags will be an easy mark for all offensive playmakers.
Of the TE2 shots I like Cole Kmet against the Bengals, Jonnu Smith against the Jets, and Jared Cook against the paper-thin Cowboys defense. Adam Trautman got 6 targets and an 81% snap-share against the Packers, just the TDs went to the other guy. Of the dart throws he’s the best this week.