Week 5 marked the beginning of the Kyle Pitts era at tight end. Week 7 made it official. While guys like Kelce, Waller, and eventually Kittle will continue to post top-five numbers, Pitts is a completely different type of tight end.
His size makes him a tight end, but he runs routes, uses his body and hands much more fluidly than most tight ends, like a wide receiver. He isn’t asked to block meaning his routes run are high. He can beat corners with his size and speed down the sideline.
You don’t normally see tight ends break 160 yards on less than ten targets. Darren Waller saw only 109 yards on 19 targets week 1. Kelce tops out this year with 109 on eight targets. Mark Andrews came close on Monday night against the Colts with 147, but needed 13 targets. Pitts gained 119 yards week 5 on just 10 targets. Week 7 he got 163 on 8. Pitts has the ninth-highest total receiving yards in a game this season, and every single person on the list in front of him is a wide receiver.
Andrews and Waller are both on bye, and Kittle is out, leaving the top tight end slot for week 8 to a battle between Kelce and Pitts. I’m betting Pitts, who has yet to really be utilized in the red zone. On to Tight End Rankings Week 8.
Name
Opp
Notes
Kyle Pitts
vs CAR
New no 1 in town
Travis Kelce
vs NYG
MNF, two TDs easy possibility
T.J. Hockenson
vs PHI
Back on track
Mike Gesicki
@ BUF
Quietly TE3 on the year
Dalton Schultz
@ MIN
TE5
Rob Gronkowski
@ NO
At least a TD, maybe 60+ yards
Robert Tonyan
@ ARI
Soaking up Adams red zone looks
Dallas Goedert
@ DET
Hurts too erratic
Zach Ertz
vs GB
Caught TD, should have had another 1st game
Noah Fant
vs WAS
Just inconsistent and marred by poor coaching
Tyler Higbee
@ HOU
Not a focal point of offense
C.J. Uzomah
@ NYJ
On a hot streak but Bengals only pass a lot when they need to
Calvin Ridley is not making the trip to London, and thus whether or not this will be Kyle Pitts’s break out week is one of the biggest questions in fantasy.
Obviously it’s impossible to say. Pitts is confusing because his predictor stats are all lining up, and he has all the talent in the world. His targets are 7th in the league for tight ends. He has a 76% snap share percentage despite being a rookie. His ADOT is 8.4 on the year (higher than Kelce and TJ Hockenson). So a break out feels inevitable.
But maybe it feel inevitable because there are so many of us who want to believe it will happen. Wanting to believe is one of the most dangerous things in fantasy.
Tale of the Tape: Kyle Pitts Week 4
This section is not meant to be pretty, but the plays are all there for you to see if you want to see them. Big thanks to East Coast Taffy for the Pitts target video. Some of the most useful content out there for fantasy film study. Definitely give them a subscribe.
I’d love to embed the videos but the NFL won’t allow it, so here are my observations with timestamped links to the videos.
https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=57 On this last one Pitts is drawing triple coverage in end zone, #17 and #4 are both open with single coverage. Ryan missed a TD here by going for Pitts. At this point in the game Pitts is heavily targeted, but Ryan knows he missed a TD. Also, Ryan recently admitted that Pitts is drawing a lot of attention from opposing defenses, even compared him to Julio albeit grudgingly.
https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=909 Ryan runs instead of throwing, Pitts open. This one occurs when the Falcons are down a score late in the game. This was a serious mistake by Ryan as his run takes up a lot of clock, and it appears Pitts is open:
Pitts breaking, Ryan still in the pocketPitts open, Ryan moving up in the pocket with 6 yards to LOSSeeing space, Ryan opts for run with 18 seconds left
https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=923 Final play, Pitts open at top of screen, Ryan throws jump ball to middle of end zone instead of targeting Pitts in stride and hoping for YAC into end zone
Conclusions
Ryan is aware that Pitts is drawing double teams and the most attention from opposing defenses. Ryan, I believe, knows his arm strength is waning and doubts his ability to hit longer throws with the same consistency he can hit shorter throws. On routes out wide, Pitts is often running deeper routes than Ridley.
Ryan did not, at the end of the game, opt to try throws to Pitts, instead opting to run the ball and then to throw into the middle of the end zone. On both plays, Pitts was open and could have made something happen after the catch.
I think the combination of Ryan’s doubt in his arm, lack of trust/chemistry with Pitts and fear of the tight coverage Pitts is getting keeps him from targeting him. I think he feels more comfortable throwing to Patterson who is still seeing single coverage on most routes and generally is close to the LOS making the throws require less force and velocity. We’ve seen from Ryan’s charts he is bunching his throws under 15 yards out from the LOS.
So, we are either betting on all of these things changing this week because Ridley is out, or things staying basically the same. After reviewing film, the only thing that would make this change in my opinion is teams scheming to take away Patterson.
So does Saleh do this well? In week two Courtland Sutton went off to the tune of 159 yards against the Jaguars. In week three against the Jets he was held to 37 yards. In week three Nick Westbrook caught a TD for the Titans week 3 against the Colts. He was held scoreless week 4 against the Jets. We know Saleh is a great defensive coach from his time at San Francisco, so it would be reasonable to expect that he takes away Ryan’s safety valve in Patterson while ratcheting up pressure on Ryan and trying to force throws to someone else.
But will that free up Pitts? Who knows…the Jets are not great against the pass (bottom 10 rank in completion percentage) so they may not have the personnel to take away Pitts and Patterson.
Long story short, Pitts remains an extremely risky start this week as it all banks on Saleh deciding to take away Patterson instead of Pitts. It also banks on Pitts running shorter routes to fit into Ryan’s comfort zone of 15 yards or less. But if both of those things happen, Pitts’s break out should be this week.
Is this the week that Kyle Pitts owners are rewarded for bucking trends and taking a rookie tight end in round 4 or 5? An increasing snap share is encouraging, but his targets need to get into the double digits. TJ Hockenson and Rob Gronkowski continue to reward the faithful. Let’s see where the rest shake out in our tight end rankings for week 3.
Tight End Rankings Week 3
Rank
Name
Opponent
1
Darren Waller
Dolphins
2
Travis Kelce
Chargers
3
TJ Hockenson
Ravens
4
Kyle Pitts
Giants
5
George Kittle
Packers
6
Noah Fant
Jets
7
Rob Gronkowski
Rams
8
Robert Tonyan
49ers
9
Jared Cook
Chiefs
10
Mike Gesicki
Raiders
11
Mark Andrews
Lions
12
Tyler Higbee
Bucs
13
Logan Thomas
Bills
14
Blake Jarwin
Eagles
15
Maxx Williams
Jaguars
16
Jonnu Smith
Saints
17
Cole Kmet
Browns
18
Evan Engram
Falcons
19
Pat Freiermuth
Bengals
20
Jack Doyle
Titans
21
MyCole Pruitt
Colts
22
Juwan Johnson
Patriots
23
Austin Hooper
Bears
24
Albert O
Jets
25
Jordan Akins
Panthers
26
Chris Manhertz
Cardinals
Other than TJ Hockenson‘s amazing season, and when or if Kyle Pitts will have his monster game, there isn’t that much to talk about at the position. Gronk has 4 touchdowns on 12 targets. Maybe the Rams can start to balance out that ratio. Mark Andrews just continues to disappoint. I’m not expecting that to change this week.
So will Pitts have his monster game? I think yes. He’s lining up wide and in the slot a lot more than he’s on the line. He had 73 yards last week despite only 6 targets. He has the fourth most targets at the position in the league. I don’t know what else the Falcons are waiting for to make him the featured player in their passing game and in the red zone.
If you are struggling for a TE, I do think Gesicki could get more involved with Brisett under center. The Dolphins are not going to be going deep as much, and he should benefit. As far as darts, I’d consider starting Jordan Akins against the Panthers if you play in a 20-team league with two starting tight end spots. Davis Mills should be running for his life and Akins could be his safety net.
Same goes for Juwan Johnson and Jameis Winston. I don’t think Trautman is ever going to amount to much, so he’s in by default.
Are people that took Kyle Pitts ahead of TJ Hockenson going to be regretting it all year? If the playcalling doesn’t change immediately in Atlanta, yes, and even if it does Hockenson could stay red hot.
The tight end position as a whole is looking up, but let’s drill in on these two for a look at where Pitts might be going.
First of all, let’s address Arthur Smith’s playcalling. I could write an entire article pointing just how predictable and chicken-shit Smith’s play calls were. Pitts was not in the game on the team’s first trip to the red zone (field goal), and Smith was either running on third and long or passing to the fullback behind the line of scrimmage late in the game down big. In other words, inscrutable, infuriating coaching from the beginning to the end of the Falcons’ humiliating defeat.
However, Pitts did tie for a team-high 8 targets, and was in for 68% of snaps and was usually lined up out wide. In other words, the snap-share aside, he was playing a role much closer to what Julio did for the Falcons than a traditional tight end. Hurst was in for 60%, meaning the Falcons are running a lot of two TE but Pitts was winning out on in 1 TE sets. Further, the game was an absolute embarrassment. It’s hard to believe that Smith sticks to what he did week 1 in week 2.
Let’s compare to TJ Hockenson, who was the best TE not named Kelce, Waller, and Kittle (and was arguably better than Kittle). Hockenson saw 11 targets, and was in on 85% of snaps. If we are taking TJ Hockenson as the goal for Kyle Pitts, given Pitts’s usage and overall game plan week 1, I think that’s attainable. Hock had 3 more targets, a 6.4 ADOT, and more reliance on passing for 1st downs. Pitts had a 7.5 ADOT in what should be the Falcon’s worst game of the season. Hold or buy low folks.
Tight End Rankings Week 2
Rank
Name
Opponent
Darren Waller
Steelers
Travis Kelce
Ravens
George Kittle
Eagles
TJ Hockenson
Packers
Mark Andrews
Chiefs
Rob Gronkowski
Falcons
Kyle Pitts
Buccaneers
Logan Thomas
Giants
Tyler Higbee
Colts
Noah Fant
Jaguars
Jonnu Smith
Jets
Jared Cook
Cowboys
Pharoah Brown
Browns
Dallas Goedert
49ers
James O’Shaugnassey
Broncos
Cole Kmet
Bengals
David NJoku
Texans
Adam Trautman
Panthers
Gerald Everett
Titans
Blake Jarwin
Chargers
Dawson Knox
Dolphins
Will Dissly
Titans
Anthony Firkser
Seahawks
Darren Waller is on pace for 350 targets this year as Derek Carr just continues to ignore everyone else on the team. It worked, so don’t expect it to change. Mark Andrews absolutely has to step up against the Chiefs, and maybe watching Kelce do it better from the sidelines will inspire him more than his new contract.
Gronk is back until further notice, and Logan Thomas should be the lone bright spot for the WFT passing game once again with Bradberry blanketing McLaurin. The connection is already there, he’s as good a play as this game will offer. Watch the injury reports on Ertz, if he sits Goedert is a solid TE1 play against the 49ers who just gave up a huge game to Hockenson. Noah Fant should be great against the Jags who let Pharoah Brown (who?) have a big game. As long as Meyer is coach, the Jags will be an easy mark for all offensive playmakers.
Of the TE2 shots I like Cole Kmet against the Bengals, Jonnu Smith against the Jets, and Jared Cook against the paper-thin Cowboys defense. Adam Trautman got 6 targets and an 81% snap-share against the Packers, just the TDs went to the other guy. Of the dart throws he’s the best this week.
The NFL season is upon us, and it’s time to get to ranking the position I neglect the most, tight ends. Why do I neglect this position? Essentially because it’s top heavy, which causes the top 3 (possibly 4) players who actually make a difference to have unreasonably high ADPs, and the rest just seem to bunch together.
Anyway, here are my superflex TE rankings for week 1.
Tight Ends
Rank
Name
Opponent
1
Travis Kelce
Browns
2
Darren Waller
Ravens
3
George Kittle
Lions
4
Kyle Pitts
Eagles
5
TJ Hockenson
49ers
6
Tyler Higbee
Bears
7
Mark Andrews
Raiders
8
Mike Gesicki
Patriots
9
Logan Thomas
Chargers
10
Jonnu Smith
Dolphins
11
Robert Tonyan
Saints
12
Noah Fant
Giants
13
Cole Kmet
Rams
14
Blake Jarwin
Buccaneers
15
Rob Gronkowski
Cowboys
16
Hunter Henry
Dolphins
17
Chris Herndon
Bengals
18
Adam Trautman
Packers
19
Dallas Goedert
Falcons
20
Zach Ertz
Falcons
21
Jared Cook
WFT
22
Austin Hooper
Chiefs
23
Pat Freiermuth
Bills
24
Dawson Knox
Steelers
I don’t know that there is much to say about the top three here. It would take some sort of cataclysmic event to not rank Travis Kelce number 1 against anyone, and Darren Waller and George Kittle will follow him immediately against almost any opponents. I could see Kittle leaned on more in the run game as I think San Francisco will stick to the ground in an easy win.
It gets more interesting at the 4-12 spots. I do think Kyle Pitts is going to beat expectations all year. Everyone said he was being drafted at his ceiling while going in rounds 4-5, while not blinking at Kelce and Waller going in the first and Kittle in the 2nd and 3rd. Pitts can be as good as Waller and Kittle this year, and I think it starts in a big way this Sunday. I like TJ Hockenson’s role as the only game in town against the 49ers and possibly all year. I expect the Niners pass rush to be back up to snuff and thus the safety valve being all important for Goff. I like Tyler Higbee for the same reason against the Bears. Their front four will get to Stafford plenty. MarkAndrews is the only real trusted receiver that Lamar Jackson has, and I think a big game against the Raiders is not out of the question, but I’m seeing something more along the lines of 65 yards and a touch.
Gesicki, Logan Thomas, Jonnu Smith, and Robert Tonyan should all be reliable back-end starters in a 12-team league. Not thrilling but probably safe 60+ yardage floors and a decent shot at a touchdown.
Noah Fant has been dealing with an injury but if healthy he should be a good option against a bad Giants defense. I think Cole Kmet is a good play this week as Dalton’s safety valve against the Rams pass rush, but without any real past production he’s risky. The only other guy I wold feel comfortable starting in a 12-team league in the bottom 24 is Adam Trautman. He’s healthy for week 1 and if Jaire Alexander effectively takes away Marquez Callaway from Winston, I expect Trautman to see at least 8 targets, possibly as high as 12.
