If you’re one of the 7 readers who have been following this site since I launched in July, you know there has been one consistent theme: Jameis Winston is the key to winning your superflex league.
I will be the first to say that Winston looked absolutely terrible on Sunday. My weekly matchups and possibly seasons melted away as I watched hesitation after hesitation, sack after sack, and unfortunately interception upon interception.
Week 1 against the Packers Winston looked as good as the offense needed him to be. They got away with short passes to the backs and tight ends, converted in the red zone, and he hit a deep pass when it was available to ice the game. My late-round target appeared to be a league-winner in the making. Yet there was weirdness: the Packers absolutely rolled over, the Saints played uber conservative, and Winston threw 5 TD passes while passing for under 150 yards. That just doesn’t happen.
Week 2 Jameis looked leagues worse than he did in his most turnover prone games at Tampa Bay. Yes he got pressured on a whopping 65% of his dropbacks, but both Winston and Payton blamed much of that on not making adjustments at the line.
“I have to take responsibility for communicating with the offensive line,” Winston said. “Got to get us in better protections. Just communicate better out there.”
– Jameis Winston
While it’s good to see Jameis take responsibility, isn’t this an admission we would expect from a rookie instead of a multi-year vet?
Does this mean that Winston is simply not a mature and fully-formed QB, despite years in the league and a full year learning behind one of the games best? Quite possibly. Does it mean that when he goes off the rails, he takes the entire offense down with him?
This is Winston’s first play of the game, pre-snap. The play is a play-action pass faking left. The Panthers are showing five on the line, corners and safeties are up tight at the line as well.
Winston likely should have seen this sack coming, and changed out of the pass into a run. Hasson Reddick runs basically untouched and takes Winston down.
So we have a chicken-egg question of sorts — was Winston the victim of terrible protection, or its architect? Should we allow for the fact that the entire team just had a terrible game, after all no one is saying drop Alvin Kamara who rushed 8 times for 5 yards?
Let’s take a look at another sack from the second quarter.
5 guys on the line with another just off the line, and 9 defenders within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Winston did not change to a run, and once again the results were disastrous. Sack deep, drive over.
One the one hand, it’s really easy and tempting to say “same ole Jameis” and move on. Both Heinicke and Daniel Jones appear to be better options right now, and the Saints get the Patriots next. Another outing like last week and time is all but certainly up for Jameis as New Orleans starting QB. HIll is there, it was a tight competition in camp, and no one would question the switch.
But is it the right way to think about this? Even when Jameis was throwing 30 picks, he was still throwing for tons of yards and winning a lot of fantasy leagues. Right now we have a sample of two data points, one good but not great, and one absolutely horrific.
One thing I tell myself I will stop doing every year is overreacting to one bad week. Jameis Winston just had a really, really bad week. I’m rolling with Jameis against the Pats and continuing to bet long on what I saw coming together in the preseason and week 1. If I’m wrong then at least I’m wrong betting on something I believed in, as opposed to wrong because I gave up on something too early.