If you’re one of the 7 readers who have been following this site since I launched in July, you know there has been one consistent theme: Jameis Winston is the key to winning your superflex league.
I will be the first to say that Winston looked absolutely terrible on Sunday. My weekly matchups and possibly seasons melted away as I watched hesitation after hesitation, sack after sack, and unfortunately interception upon interception.
Week 1 against the Packers Winston looked as good as the offense needed him to be. They got away with short passes to the backs and tight ends, converted in the red zone, and he hit a deep pass when it was available to ice the game. My late-round target appeared to be a league-winner in the making. Yet there was weirdness: the Packers absolutely rolled over, the Saints played uber conservative, and Winston threw 5 TD passes while passing for under 150 yards. That just doesn’t happen.
Week 2 Jameis looked leagues worse than he did in his most turnover prone games at Tampa Bay. Yes he got pressured on a whopping 65% of his dropbacks, but both Winston and Payton blamed much of that on not making adjustments at the line.
“I have to take responsibility for communicating with the offensive line,” Winston said. “Got to get us in better protections. Just communicate better out there.”
– Jameis Winston
While it’s good to see Jameis take responsibility, isn’t this an admission we would expect from a rookie instead of a multi-year vet?
Does this mean that Winston is simply not a mature and fully-formed QB, despite years in the league and a full year learning behind one of the games best? Quite possibly. Does it mean that when he goes off the rails, he takes the entire offense down with him?
This is Winston’s first play of the game, pre-snap. The play is a play-action pass faking left. The Panthers are showing five on the line, corners and safeties are up tight at the line as well.
Winston likely should have seen this sack coming, and changed out of the pass into a run. Hasson Reddick runs basically untouched and takes Winston down.
So we have a chicken-egg question of sorts — was Winston the victim of terrible protection, or its architect? Should we allow for the fact that the entire team just had a terrible game, after all no one is saying drop Alvin Kamara who rushed 8 times for 5 yards?
Let’s take a look at another sack from the second quarter.
5 guys on the line with another just off the line, and 9 defenders within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Winston did not change to a run, and once again the results were disastrous. Sack deep, drive over.
One the one hand, it’s really easy and tempting to say “same ole Jameis” and move on. Both Heinicke and Daniel Jones appear to be better options right now, and the Saints get the Patriots next. Another outing like last week and time is all but certainly up for Jameis as New Orleans starting QB. HIll is there, it was a tight competition in camp, and no one would question the switch.
But is it the right way to think about this? Even when Jameis was throwing 30 picks, he was still throwing for tons of yards and winning a lot of fantasy leagues. Right now we have a sample of two data points, one good but not great, and one absolutely horrific.
One thing I tell myself I will stop doing every year is overreacting to one bad week. Jameis Winston just had a really, really bad week. I’m rolling with Jameis against the Pats and continuing to bet long on what I saw coming together in the preseason and week 1. If I’m wrong then at least I’m wrong betting on something I believed in, as opposed to wrong because I gave up on something too early.
Before we get to the waiver wire, let’s enter the panic room and have a good sit.
A few owners (or rosterers, JFC) got to exit the panic room this past weekend. Zeke owners got a good day (16-71-1, 2-26), even though Tony Pollard by every measure had a better day (13-109-1, 3-31). Be happy you got a good day, and Pollard owners might have more than a handcuff. Zeke had the snap share 71% to 34%, but maybe that’s more of a 55-45 after this game.
Owners of the Atlanta passing game (Ryan, Pitts, Ridley) got to exit, though Ridley owners might still have one foot in the door after he turned 10 targets into only 63 yards, but did get a score. Pitts saw only 6 targets which he turned into 5 catches for 73 yards, and still saw no end zone targets and only 1 red zone target. Pitts needs more work.
King Henry quieted doubters and reclaimed his crown as a top-five back, and the best part is he’s been involved in the passing game for two straight games and is making the most of it (9-74). And Tennessee won a game they likely would have lost if not for continuing to focus on Henry.
Saints? Yeah, might be time to panic but I am Wilson-Phillips-ing to Winston for another week. We got one good week, and one frankly terrible week (like 26.2 passer rating bad). He looks scared to throw into tight coverage and his receivers are not separating and creating opportunities. I think Callaway is droppable after two terrible performances, but the entire offense stunk to high hell so maybe this is just a throw away game.
I recommended dropping Tua for Taylor Heinicke in 2QB leagues and I’ll stick by that today. Here is my list of droppable guys before setting out the guys to grab.
The Drop List
Jameis Winston, Tua Tagovailoa, Zach Wilson, Trey Sermon, Boston Scott, Rhamondre Stevenson, Tevin Coleman, Eric Ebron, Devonta Freeman, OJ Howard, Ronald Jones, Gio Bernard, Amon-Ra St. Brown, MVS.
Waiver Wire Week 2
Quarterback
Taylor Heinicke, 4% rostered, 10% FAAB
The sample size on Taylor Heinicke is so small, we really have no idea what we can expect from the surprise star of Thursday night. In a game and a half this season, he has played as well as anyone could have expected him to. Last week he had more completed air yards/completion (CAY%) than Justin Herbert (7.5 to 6.8) despite a higher drop % (8.7% to 13.3%). Fast forward a week, the CAY% goes down to 5.6 but he gets 74% completion leading to 336 yards with two scores and a pick. It’s enough to make you wonder what he can do going forward. Chances are it’s enough to keep Fitzpatrick on the bench. He gets Buffalo next.
Daniel Jones, 20% rostered, 8% FAAB
I don’t like Jones, but if the Giants are going to continue to feature him in the run game, that could make up for a lot of his deficiencies. He ran 9 times for 95 yards and had a long TD called back due to penalty, which would have put him on par with Lamar Jackson in terms of QB rushing for the week. He wasn’t bad as a passer either, finishing with 249 and 1 TD and a 102.2 rating, so him vs Heinicke comes down to how your league rewards passing vs rushing.
Teddy Bridgewater, 18% rostered, 8% FAAB
Bridge is probably not available in most Superflex leagues, but just in case he is, he’s worth a pickup. The only reason I don’t have him higher is that he has faced two pretty terrible defenses so far (Jaguars, 27th in passing yards allowed; Giants 25th) but his next two opponents are actually worse (Ravens 32nd, Steelers 29th). He had 328 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions last week. Pretty promising so far.
Sam Darnold, 15% rostered, 7% FAAB
Darnold has strung two good games together against the Jets and New Orleans, and could make for a good QB2 if things keep going his way. His upcoming schedule looks good as well with tilts against the Texans and Cowboys up next, plus dates against the Giants in week 7 and Atlanta in week 8.
Mac Jones, 25% rostered, 5% FAAB
Jones disappointed fantasy managers due to an absolute rout of the Jets, where he really didn’t need to complete long passes or attempt many (30) to get the win. Three of his next 4 games (against the Saints, Bucs, and Cowboys) are going to require more of an offensive output to win, and none of them have what one would call stout pass defenses.
Davis Mills, 0% rostered, 1% FAAB
This is a true desperation, warm-body-needed play as Mills has appeared completely unprepared for NFL action in both the preseason and his limited play last week. That being said, deep Superflex leagues and 2QB leagues occasionally present these warm-body needs and he fits that category.
Running Backs
Cordarelle Patterson, 16% rostered, 15% FAAB
Probably everyone has picked up and dropped Patterson over the years, but his situation in Atlanta is probably the best he’s had in his career. He’s the best back on the team, his team is going to need to utilize his receiving skills, and he’ll be the back on the field when the team is down big, a scenario likely to repeat itself all season. Further, Smith has shown a preference for throwing behind the sticks on third down and relying on YAC to pick up the first.
JD McKissic, 29% rostered, 14% FAAB
McKissic showed that he is not going anywhere this past Thursday. He vultured a TD in the first half and caught a long 56-yard pass as well. He was on the field for 44% of the snaps and that share could grow. Further, Washington is 25th in total defense this season, meaning they could need to lean on the pass more than the run to keep them in games.
Sony Michel, 60% rostered, 12% FAAB
Michel could have been dropped in your league and depending on the severity of Henderson’s rib injury, could be in line for starter snaps. It’s week 2 and Henderson is already injured. I don’t see him getting Henderson’s 100% snap share if he is the lead back, but 4.6 ypc is nothing to sneeze at.
Wide Receiver
Rondale Moore, 35% rostered, 35% FAAB
There is a chance that Rondale got dropped for one of the hot preseason names, or after a disappointing week 1 finish. He’s got the ability, is on the most exciting offense in the NFL with the best QB through 2 weeks, and saw a team-high 8 targets despite just a 46% snap share. Green is done, Kirk is inconsistent. Moore could be the WR2 going forward.
KJ Osborne, 4% rostered, 20% FAAB
If there was a WR on only 4% of teams that got 76 yards receiving week 1 and 91 and a touch week 2, you’d be interested right? That player is KJ Osborne for the Vikings, who saw a 59% snap share and seems to be the locked in WR3 for the Vikings. If you’re holding on to a Jets receiver not named Elijah Moore, I think you have an instant chance for improving your team.
Michael Pittman Jr, 61% rostered, 20% FAAB
Can you say break out game? Pittman caught 8 of 12 targets for 123 yards against the Rams, and should be the teams WR1 even with Hilton back. 12 targets was twice the number Pascal got, and should be a consistent number as the Colts are relying less on Nyhiem Hines in the passing game. Probably not available but worth a look.
Quintez Cephus, 2% rostered, 15% FAAB
2 touchdowns through 2 games. Second only to TJ Hockenson in targets, 89% snap share. He’s clearly establishing himself as the WR1 on the Lions, who believe it or not are currently 12th in the league in passing yards. I can see week to week consistency in the range of 60-80 yards and a good shot at a touchdown.
Tight End
Pat Friermuth, 7% rostered, 2% FAAB
Finding a TE on the WW that isn’t completely TD dependent is really hard. While Pat only saw 4 targets last week for a measly 36 yards, he saw twice that of Ebron who went catchless. The Steelers typically do not feature a tight end so keep that in mind, but he did see a 59% snap share. I see that rising as Ebron becomes the forgotten man in Pittsburgh. That translating into reliable fantasy production is a longshot.
Evan Engram, 32% rostered, 2% FAAB
Speaking of longshots, what are the odds of Engram playing half the season? He looked good in preseason before leaving the final game with a calf injury that has kept him sidelined so far. Always a target hog with decent talent, if Engram can return and if he can cure his 2020 case of the drops, he should produce. That’s a lot of ifs.
DST
Carolina, 22% rostered, 20% FAAB
They basically blanked the Saints, confusing them with blanket coverage and an unexpectedly ferocious pass rush. They are the #1 ranked defense in the NFL. And they get Houston on a Thursday night starting an absolutely terrible rookie QB. There are few perfect storms in fantasy, and this is one. They could set record highs in your league for DST scoring, and I don’t absolutely hate their matchup with the Cowboys the next week as the Boys didn’t exactly light the world on fire against the Chargers. Spend on this one if you start DST.
Las Vegas, 3% rostered, 5% FAAB
Is Vegas a good defense? They are in my leagues. Not set the world on fire, but consistent and against two teams with fairly good offenses in Baltimore and the Steelers. They get Miami this week so they are worth a weekly stream.
