Calvin Ridley is not making the trip to London, and thus whether or not this will be Kyle Pitts’s break out week is one of the biggest questions in fantasy.
Obviously it’s impossible to say. Pitts is confusing because his predictor stats are all lining up, and he has all the talent in the world. His targets are 7th in the league for tight ends. He has a 76% snap share percentage despite being a rookie. His ADOT is 8.4 on the year (higher than Kelce and TJ Hockenson). So a break out feels inevitable.
But maybe it feel inevitable because there are so many of us who want to believe it will happen. Wanting to believe is one of the most dangerous things in fantasy.
Tale of the Tape: Kyle Pitts Week 4
This section is not meant to be pretty, but the plays are all there for you to see if you want to see them. Big thanks to East Coast Taffy for the Pitts target video. Some of the most useful content out there for fantasy film study. Definitely give them a subscribe.
I’d love to embed the videos but the NFL won’t allow it, so here are my observations with timestamped links to the videos.
https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=29
Pitts completion, throw into double coverage
https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=48
3rd and 10, Ryan throws complete to Pitts on sideline
https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=57
On this last one Pitts is drawing triple coverage in end zone, #17 and #4 are both open with single coverage. Ryan missed a TD here by going for Pitts. At this point in the game Pitts is heavily targeted, but Ryan knows he missed a TD. Also, Ryan recently admitted that Pitts is drawing a lot of attention from opposing defenses, even compared him to Julio albeit grudgingly.
https://youtu.be/qS4Uj6XGRH0?t=287
Pitts target, incomplete, near interception
https://youtu.be/qS4Uj6XGRH0?t=297
Pitts target, incomplete
https://youtu.be/qS4Uj6XGRH0?t=318
Pitts target in end zone, knocked away, triple coverage
https://youtu.be/qS4Uj6XGRH0?t=338
Complete, does not make first down
https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=93
Pitts up top in single coverage but Ryan takes quick out to Patterson and gets first down after the catch.
https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=339
Ryan opts for Ridley rather than deeper Pitts because of possible double coverage on Pitts
https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=352
Patterson TD, Pitts used to draw coverage away from middle
https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=459
Second Patterson TD, Pitts in double coverage in middle, Patterson in single coverage on the outside
https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=475
Pitts in single coverage for 2pt try, Ryan looks his way and goes to Zachius in middle of end zone, drop
https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=558
Pitts target 3:49 left in third, completion
https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=565
Pitts and Patterson open, throw goes to Ridley on closer route
https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=637
Pitts breaking, but Ryan goes to check down in Davis
https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=896
Pitts wide open, Ryan completes to Ridley on deeper route – good play
https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=909
Ryan runs instead of throwing, Pitts open. This one occurs when the Falcons are down a score late in the game. This was a serious mistake by Ryan as his run takes up a lot of clock, and it appears Pitts is open:
https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=923
Final play, Pitts open at top of screen, Ryan throws jump ball to middle of end zone instead of targeting Pitts in stride and hoping for YAC into end zone
Conclusions
Ryan is aware that Pitts is drawing double teams and the most attention from opposing defenses. Ryan, I believe, knows his arm strength is waning and doubts his ability to hit longer throws with the same consistency he can hit shorter throws. On routes out wide, Pitts is often running deeper routes than Ridley.
Ryan did not, at the end of the game, opt to try throws to Pitts, instead opting to run the ball and then to throw into the middle of the end zone. On both plays, Pitts was open and could have made something happen after the catch.
I think the combination of Ryan’s doubt in his arm, lack of trust/chemistry with Pitts and fear of the tight coverage Pitts is getting keeps him from targeting him. I think he feels more comfortable throwing to Patterson who is still seeing single coverage on most routes and generally is close to the LOS making the throws require less force and velocity. We’ve seen from Ryan’s charts he is bunching his throws under 15 yards out from the LOS.
So, we are either betting on all of these things changing this week because Ridley is out, or things staying basically the same. After reviewing film, the only thing that would make this change in my opinion is teams scheming to take away Patterson.
So does Saleh do this well? In week two Courtland Sutton went off to the tune of 159 yards against the Jaguars. In week three against the Jets he was held to 37 yards. In week three Nick Westbrook caught a TD for the Titans week 3 against the Colts. He was held scoreless week 4 against the Jets. We know Saleh is a great defensive coach from his time at San Francisco, so it would be reasonable to expect that he takes away Ryan’s safety valve in Patterson while ratcheting up pressure on Ryan and trying to force throws to someone else.
But will that free up Pitts? Who knows…the Jets are not great against the pass (bottom 10 rank in completion percentage) so they may not have the personnel to take away Pitts and Patterson.
Long story short, Pitts remains an extremely risky start this week as it all banks on Saleh deciding to take away Patterson instead of Pitts. It also banks on Pitts running shorter routes to fit into Ryan’s comfort zone of 15 yards or less. But if both of those things happen, Pitts’s break out should be this week.