We all make bad decisions. The first part of this column is not about bad decisions you made so much as bad calls I made, we all made, when staring at reality and instead choosing to believe a fantasy. We all do it. Sometimes the pull of a narrative is just too strong to resist.
And sometimes we are just dealing with incomplete or imperfect information, like the San Francisco running back room. Sometimes you simply can’t see things coming because you are not part of the franchise, or watching practice everyday.
But sometimes we all just ignore the news that doesn’t fit our narrative of how we want the season to be, either because of the players that fell to us in the draft, or who we root for, or who we root against (in my case, Antonio “Whole Lotta Money” Brown).
Bad Decisions
Believing in FitzMagic
This is how I will always remember Fitzpatrick. Coming on after one of the most ballin fantasy performances of all time, blinged up, and showing his trademark sense of humor and humility in an industry that takes itself waaaaay too seriously. We all wanted this guy to win, to get his shot, and to succeed.
Sure you can’t see injuries coming, but let’s face it, we all knew the narrative was a little too perfect to work. Fitz has been sent to IR after a hip subluxation following a fairly mild hit. He’s 8 weeks out from returning, but let’s face it, that’s it. Taylor Heinicke is a good enough backup and deserves a shot too, and if he isn’t, Cam is out there looking for a team and would be an upgrade over both at this point.
Believing that Zach Wilson Can Handle Pressure
15 plays. 14 yards. 3 Punts. That was the Jets first quarter against the Panthers. Interception, turnover on downs, punt. That was the Jets second quarter against the Panthers.
Wilson took 6 sacks, and his first TD of the day came when Corey Davis was literally all by himself in the end zone. Wilson did manage to salvage his day with 258 passing and 2 TDs and put together a decent fantasy performance, but this was a mirage. Losing Mehki Becton for multiple games due to a knee injury means that the pressure is only going to ratchet up from here. There are safer waters in the QB2 market on the waiver wire.
Urban Meyer
Holy shit dude! There is no interpretation of this picture where you tell me Shaquille Quarterman is not already thinking about killing Urban Meyer. He’s burning lasers into the back of his head. And why wouldn’t he be?
This bad decision tree goes back to Shahid Khan and his circus-ringmaster mustache that apparently has grown both ways and is currently strangling his pre-frontal cortex. Anyone who knew Urban Meyer at ALL as a college coach knew he was anything but stable. Mentally, morally, you name it. The bad decision cascade, which is well documented but worth revisiting just for the fun of it, goes something like this:
- Khan hires Urban Meyer out of retirement, to rebuild the league’s worst franchise
- Urban hires a staffer known for racist tirades, begins to lose locker room
- Urban drafts a running back instead of o-line round 1, alienates prime asset
- Urban brings on Tim Tebow, insulting everyone on team, further loses locker room
- Urban manufactures a fake QB competition, loses valuable experience for Trevor
- Urban treats professionals like college kids, yells at them during practice, loses locker room
- Urban trades Minshew for nothing, with no one behind Trevor Lawrence
Our bad decision, at least on some counts, is going along for the ride. Lawrence and Chark both had good fantasy days, but the rest of the team, notably Shenault and Robinson, did not. I would not drop anyone yet, but I would consider fielding reasonable offers for Robinson, who saw only 5 carries to Hyde’s 9, simply because we already know that Meyer doesn’t get basic fundamentals of football (such as its a young man’s game) and can’t be trusted to make obvious good decisions.
Trying to Pull Value out of the Jets Backfield
I was guilty as I signed Ty Johnson prior to kickoff in one league to replace Gus Edwards. All three Jets backs averaged under 4 ypc and none saw more than 9 carries. Ty Johnson was the best of the three with 3.8 per carry, but with Becton down it’s best to avoid this altogether.
Waiver Wire Answers Week 1
QB Answers
Mac Jones, 26% Rostered, FAAB 20%
If you are dealing with either Fitz’s injury, or have an itchy trigger finger on Matt Ryan or Zach Wilson, look no further than Mac Jones. He did everything you could really ask a rookie quarterback to do, and likely would have won the game had Harris not fumbled on what should have been a game-winning drive. There are better week 1 performers out there with smaller roster percentages, but I really like Jones as a QB2 going forward. Granted, he is a rookie and some of the other names here could outperform him, but I like his upside.
Derek Carr, 22% Rostered, FAAB 35%
Carr looked really good and actually started finding his receivers not named Darren Waller late last night. He connected with Henry Ruggs a couple times, peppered Bryan Edwards on the final drive in regulation and in overtime, and hit Zay Jones for the game-winning TD in overtime. Probably was drafted in most Superflex leagues but definitely worth an add if not.
Jared Goff, 7% Rostered, FAAB 20%
Goff is one of the vets who played well above expectations on Sunday, and is more likely to have gone undrafted in shallow Superflex leagues or leagues with position limits. 338 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 pick, and more fight than I previously thought. While San Francisco was without Jason Verrett in the fourth, that’s not enough to discount this performance. It is possible that Goff is better than he appeared in LA, with Sean McVay controlling his every move.
RB Answers
Elijah Mitchell, 10% Rostered, FAAB 80%
While no one really saw this coming, this is really the fault of the fantasy hive mind. We heard nothing but Trey Sermon from the fantasy community all offseason, but did we really hear ringing endorsements from the coaches? Or beat writers? When Sermon was deactivated Sunday early, this was the chance to grab Mitchell. Now? Likely you’ll have to spend the majority of your FAAB to get him, but it might be worth it. There’s no reason to think he doesn’t grab hold of this backfield and keep it all year.
Mark Ingram, 21% Rostered, FAAB 20%
Ingram had a 3.3 ypc but saw 26 carries and gained 86 yards. While I don’t expect him to continue to dominate carries as he did against the lowly Jags, you can’t really argue with that amount of carry dominance on the waiver wire at running back. Still, I wouldn’t overspend to get him.
Tony Jones Jr., 23% Rostered, FAAB 18%
Jones was an obvious pickup before week 1 with the release of Latavius Murray, but he erased any doubts about picking up exactly where Murray left off on Sunday with a solid performance against the Packers. Jones got a 35% snap share compared with Alvin Kamara’s 73%, and got 11 carries to Kamara’s 20. I think it would take a Kamara injury to make Jones an true starter this year, but there are worse options to have in your flex spot
Kenneth Gainwell, 9% Rostered, FAAB 15%
Gainwell has a clear hold on the #2 back duties over Boston Scott and looks poised to keep the role. He got 9 carries (second behind Miles Sanders) and turned that into 37 yards and a touchdown. I see his role growing in this backfield, but I am also a bit worried about Hurts’s rushing production causing weekly turbulence in his output if he doesn’t see more than the 3 targets he got Sunday.
Cordarelle Patterson, 3% Rostered, FAAB 5%
I know, I know. I hate even typing this but Patterson is currently the best runner the Falcons have, and that’s a really sad statement. The entire offense for the Falcons was predictable and chicken-shit. I’ve never seen more give-up plays from a team loaded with playmakers in the passing game. Patterson was really the lone bright spot as Arthur Smith continued to try and force the run despite it clearly not working with Mike Davis. He’s worth a shot if you invested in the Ravens backfield in the draft.
WR Answers
Sterling Shepard, 39% Rostered, FAAB 20%
Maybe the new number did something for him, as Shepard led the team in targets (9), receptions (7), and yards (113) while scoring the team’s only touchdown. I don’t expect things to get much better for the Giants offense, but I don’t think they can get much worse than this tilt against a really good Broncos secondary. Shepard is absolutely worth an add even if it means letting go of a preseason darling like Marquez Callaway or Elijah Moore.
Tim Patrick, 2% Rostered, FAAB 15%
Jerry Jeudy is looking at an extended absence with a high-ankle sprain, and Patrick is the most likely beneficiary. Patrick saw a 70% snap share in this game vs just a 36% for the speedier Hamler, and he did get one of Teddy’s two touchdowns to go with his 39 yards receiving. Patrick is the injury replacement to own in Denver.
Sammy Watkins, 14% Rostered, FAAB 5%
Watkins is starting and will be on the field for most of the snaps, and I think this is with Bateman back healthy. He caught only half of his 8 targets, but one of them was a long pass that gave him 96 receiving for the day. Still, I wouldn’t chase points here as the Ravens are still very much in flux as they are searching for an offensive identity following massive injuries to their running backs. I think most weeks Watkins will be frustrating to own.
Christian Kirk, 15% Rostered, FAAB 5%
5 targets, 5 catches, 70 yards, 2 touchdowns. Can you say unsustainable? I love Kirk for Best Ball leagues. I would hate to own him for H2H leagues. Still, Rondale Moore is not ready to take over the slot completely, and as predicted AJ Green simply does not have it anymore. That means opportunity for both Moore and Kirk, but predicting which one will go off each week will be a nightmare.
Trent Sherfield, 2% Rostered, FAAB 5%
Soooo there was a lot we did not see coming on the Niners side in this game, and chief among them was Aiyuk being a total non-factor. As in did not start (Niners started two TEs and a FB). As in only 47% snap share. As in 0 targets. This is either a huge message to Aiyuk to improve his play, or a recognition that Sherfield is maybe a better option for the team. Kyle Shanahan suggested it’s the latter in his post-game remarks on Monday:
I just think he’s got a better person behind him this year in training camp and with Aiyuk missing some time and how well [WR] Trent Sherfield played and especially with Aiyuk missing some time heading into that game, it wasn’t a very tough decision.
Kyle Shanahan, Monday
Read the whole article as it presents some interesting questions, such as why Aiyuk was fielding punts if his hamstring was hurt. But there are three possible outcomes: Aiyuk plays his way back into a full-time starting role, or he and Sherfield continue to split time which Shanahan suggested he was fine with, or Sherfield overtakes Aiyuk for a starting role opposite Samuel. I think the middle option is the most likely which means half a role as the third pass-catching option in this offense, but Lance likes Sherfield, and Lance will take over at some point.
TE Answers
Cole Kmet, 34% Rostered, 8% FAAB
The good news is that Kmet saw a 74% snap share, and there’s no way that Nagy can continue to trot out a largely washed up Andy Dalton and keep his job. Kmet will benefit from Fields being inserted, but I don’t know if that turns him into every-week starter material. Better things are coming, and the snap share is there.
Juwan Johnson, 11% Rostered, 5% FAAB
Juwan Johnson’s stat line from week 1 is exactly the kind of stat line you should ignore: 3-3 for 21 yards and 2 touchdowns. Just not going to happen again. But, this was an incredibly weird game. Winston threw for 5 TDs and under 150 yards. The Saints absolutely annihilated the Packers, who many expect to be one of the best offenses in the league this year. But it’s possible that Trautman is not the clear-cut TE1 for this team. Trautman dominated snap share and got 3 more targets than Johnson, but only caught three for 18 yards. I’d be surprised if Johnson’s 19% snap share doesn’t increase dramatically.