Tag: Mac Jones

Bad Decisions, Waiver Wire Answers Week 1

We all make bad decisions. The first part of this column is not about bad decisions you made so much as bad calls I made, we all made, when staring at reality and instead choosing to believe a fantasy. We all do it. Sometimes the pull of a narrative is just too strong to resist.

And sometimes we are just dealing with incomplete or imperfect information, like the San Francisco running back room. Sometimes you simply can’t see things coming because you are not part of the franchise, or watching practice everyday.

But sometimes we all just ignore the news that doesn’t fit our narrative of how we want the season to be, either because of the players that fell to us in the draft, or who we root for, or who we root against (in my case, Antonio “Whole Lotta Money” Brown).

Bad Decisions

Believing in FitzMagic

This is how I will always remember Fitzpatrick. Coming on after one of the most ballin fantasy performances of all time, blinged up, and showing his trademark sense of humor and humility in an industry that takes itself waaaaay too seriously. We all wanted this guy to win, to get his shot, and to succeed.

Sure you can’t see injuries coming, but let’s face it, we all knew the narrative was a little too perfect to work. Fitz has been sent to IR after a hip subluxation following a fairly mild hit. He’s 8 weeks out from returning, but let’s face it, that’s it. Taylor Heinicke is a good enough backup and deserves a shot too, and if he isn’t, Cam is out there looking for a team and would be an upgrade over both at this point.

Believing that Zach Wilson Can Handle Pressure

15 plays. 14 yards. 3 Punts. That was the Jets first quarter against the Panthers. Interception, turnover on downs, punt. That was the Jets second quarter against the Panthers.

Wilson took 6 sacks, and his first TD of the day came when Corey Davis was literally all by himself in the end zone. Wilson did manage to salvage his day with 258 passing and 2 TDs and put together a decent fantasy performance, but this was a mirage. Losing Mehki Becton for multiple games due to a knee injury means that the pressure is only going to ratchet up from here. There are safer waters in the QB2 market on the waiver wire.

Urban Meyer

Holy shit dude! There is no interpretation of this picture where you tell me Shaquille Quarterman is not already thinking about killing Urban Meyer. He’s burning lasers into the back of his head. And why wouldn’t he be?

This bad decision tree goes back to Shahid Khan and his circus-ringmaster mustache that apparently has grown both ways and is currently strangling his pre-frontal cortex. Anyone who knew Urban Meyer at ALL as a college coach knew he was anything but stable. Mentally, morally, you name it. The bad decision cascade, which is well documented but worth revisiting just for the fun of it, goes something like this:

  • Khan hires Urban Meyer out of retirement, to rebuild the league’s worst franchise
  • Urban hires a staffer known for racist tirades, begins to lose locker room
  • Urban drafts a running back instead of o-line round 1, alienates prime asset
  • Urban brings on Tim Tebow, insulting everyone on team, further loses locker room
  • Urban manufactures a fake QB competition, loses valuable experience for Trevor
  • Urban treats professionals like college kids, yells at them during practice, loses locker room
  • Urban trades Minshew for nothing, with no one behind Trevor Lawrence

Our bad decision, at least on some counts, is going along for the ride. Lawrence and Chark both had good fantasy days, but the rest of the team, notably Shenault and Robinson, did not. I would not drop anyone yet, but I would consider fielding reasonable offers for Robinson, who saw only 5 carries to Hyde’s 9, simply because we already know that Meyer doesn’t get basic fundamentals of football (such as its a young man’s game) and can’t be trusted to make obvious good decisions.

Trying to Pull Value out of the Jets Backfield

I was guilty as I signed Ty Johnson prior to kickoff in one league to replace Gus Edwards. All three Jets backs averaged under 4 ypc and none saw more than 9 carries. Ty Johnson was the best of the three with 3.8 per carry, but with Becton down it’s best to avoid this altogether.

Waiver Wire Answers Week 1

QB Answers

Mac Jones 26% Rostered in Yahoo Leagues

Mac Jones, 26% Rostered, FAAB 20%

If you are dealing with either Fitz’s injury, or have an itchy trigger finger on Matt Ryan or Zach Wilson, look no further than Mac Jones. He did everything you could really ask a rookie quarterback to do, and likely would have won the game had Harris not fumbled on what should have been a game-winning drive. There are better week 1 performers out there with smaller roster percentages, but I really like Jones as a QB2 going forward. Granted, he is a rookie and some of the other names here could outperform him, but I like his upside.

Derek Carr, 22% Rostered, FAAB 35%

Carr looked really good and actually started finding his receivers not named Darren Waller late last night. He connected with Henry Ruggs a couple times, peppered Bryan Edwards on the final drive in regulation and in overtime, and hit Zay Jones for the game-winning TD in overtime. Probably was drafted in most Superflex leagues but definitely worth an add if not.

Jared Goff, 7% Rostered, FAAB 20%

Goff is one of the vets who played well above expectations on Sunday, and is more likely to have gone undrafted in shallow Superflex leagues or leagues with position limits. 338 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 pick, and more fight than I previously thought. While San Francisco was without Jason Verrett in the fourth, that’s not enough to discount this performance. It is possible that Goff is better than he appeared in LA, with Sean McVay controlling his every move.

RB Answers

Elijah Mitchell, 10% Rostered, FAAB 80%

While no one really saw this coming, this is really the fault of the fantasy hive mind. We heard nothing but Trey Sermon from the fantasy community all offseason, but did we really hear ringing endorsements from the coaches? Or beat writers? When Sermon was deactivated Sunday early, this was the chance to grab Mitchell. Now? Likely you’ll have to spend the majority of your FAAB to get him, but it might be worth it. There’s no reason to think he doesn’t grab hold of this backfield and keep it all year.

Mark Ingram, 21% Rostered, FAAB 20%

Ingram had a 3.3 ypc but saw 26 carries and gained 86 yards. While I don’t expect him to continue to dominate carries as he did against the lowly Jags, you can’t really argue with that amount of carry dominance on the waiver wire at running back. Still, I wouldn’t overspend to get him.

Tony Jones Jr., 23% Rostered, FAAB 18%

Jones was an obvious pickup before week 1 with the release of Latavius Murray, but he erased any doubts about picking up exactly where Murray left off on Sunday with a solid performance against the Packers. Jones got a 35% snap share compared with Alvin Kamara’s 73%, and got 11 carries to Kamara’s 20. I think it would take a Kamara injury to make Jones an true starter this year, but there are worse options to have in your flex spot

Kenneth Gainwell, 9% Rostered, FAAB 15%

Gainwell has a clear hold on the #2 back duties over Boston Scott and looks poised to keep the role. He got 9 carries (second behind Miles Sanders) and turned that into 37 yards and a touchdown. I see his role growing in this backfield, but I am also a bit worried about Hurts’s rushing production causing weekly turbulence in his output if he doesn’t see more than the 3 targets he got Sunday.

Cordarelle Patterson, 3% Rostered, FAAB 5%

I know, I know. I hate even typing this but Patterson is currently the best runner the Falcons have, and that’s a really sad statement. The entire offense for the Falcons was predictable and chicken-shit. I’ve never seen more give-up plays from a team loaded with playmakers in the passing game. Patterson was really the lone bright spot as Arthur Smith continued to try and force the run despite it clearly not working with Mike Davis. He’s worth a shot if you invested in the Ravens backfield in the draft.

WR Answers

Sterling Shepard is rostered in 39% of leagues

Sterling Shepard, 39% Rostered, FAAB 20%

Maybe the new number did something for him, as Shepard led the team in targets (9), receptions (7), and yards (113) while scoring the team’s only touchdown. I don’t expect things to get much better for the Giants offense, but I don’t think they can get much worse than this tilt against a really good Broncos secondary. Shepard is absolutely worth an add even if it means letting go of a preseason darling like Marquez Callaway or Elijah Moore.

Tim Patrick, 2% Rostered, FAAB 15%

Jerry Jeudy is looking at an extended absence with a high-ankle sprain, and Patrick is the most likely beneficiary. Patrick saw a 70% snap share in this game vs just a 36% for the speedier Hamler, and he did get one of Teddy’s two touchdowns to go with his 39 yards receiving. Patrick is the injury replacement to own in Denver.

Sammy Watkins, 14% Rostered, FAAB 5%

Watkins is starting and will be on the field for most of the snaps, and I think this is with Bateman back healthy. He caught only half of his 8 targets, but one of them was a long pass that gave him 96 receiving for the day. Still, I wouldn’t chase points here as the Ravens are still very much in flux as they are searching for an offensive identity following massive injuries to their running backs. I think most weeks Watkins will be frustrating to own.

Christian Kirk, 15% Rostered, FAAB 5%

5 targets, 5 catches, 70 yards, 2 touchdowns. Can you say unsustainable? I love Kirk for Best Ball leagues. I would hate to own him for H2H leagues. Still, Rondale Moore is not ready to take over the slot completely, and as predicted AJ Green simply does not have it anymore. That means opportunity for both Moore and Kirk, but predicting which one will go off each week will be a nightmare.

Trent Sherfield, 2% Rostered, FAAB 5%

Soooo there was a lot we did not see coming on the Niners side in this game, and chief among them was Aiyuk being a total non-factor. As in did not start (Niners started two TEs and a FB). As in only 47% snap share. As in 0 targets. This is either a huge message to Aiyuk to improve his play, or a recognition that Sherfield is maybe a better option for the team. Kyle Shanahan suggested it’s the latter in his post-game remarks on Monday:

I just think he’s got a better person behind him this year in training camp and with Aiyuk missing some time and how well [WR] Trent Sherfield played and especially with Aiyuk missing some time heading into that game, it wasn’t a very tough decision.

Kyle Shanahan, Monday

Read the whole article as it presents some interesting questions, such as why Aiyuk was fielding punts if his hamstring was hurt. But there are three possible outcomes: Aiyuk plays his way back into a full-time starting role, or he and Sherfield continue to split time which Shanahan suggested he was fine with, or Sherfield overtakes Aiyuk for a starting role opposite Samuel. I think the middle option is the most likely which means half a role as the third pass-catching option in this offense, but Lance likes Sherfield, and Lance will take over at some point.

TE Answers

Cole Kmet is rostered in 34% of leagues

Cole Kmet, 34% Rostered, 8% FAAB

The good news is that Kmet saw a 74% snap share, and there’s no way that Nagy can continue to trot out a largely washed up Andy Dalton and keep his job. Kmet will benefit from Fields being inserted, but I don’t know if that turns him into every-week starter material. Better things are coming, and the snap share is there.

Juwan Johnson, 11% Rostered, 5% FAAB

Juwan Johnson’s stat line from week 1 is exactly the kind of stat line you should ignore: 3-3 for 21 yards and 2 touchdowns. Just not going to happen again. But, this was an incredibly weird game. Winston threw for 5 TDs and under 150 yards. The Saints absolutely annihilated the Packers, who many expect to be one of the best offenses in the league this year. But it’s possible that Trautman is not the clear-cut TE1 for this team. Trautman dominated snap share and got 3 more targets than Johnson, but only caught three for 18 yards. I’d be surprised if Johnson’s 19% snap share doesn’t increase dramatically.

QB Battles: The Final Countdown for Superflex Leagues

If you don’t know who these douchebags are that’s fine, it probably just means you’re under 40 or had exceedingly good taste in the eighties.

QB Battles are wrapping up left and right, time for a quick look back and where I was right and where I was wrong, and the implications for fantasy.

QB Battle #1: Cam Newton vs Mac Jones

One month ago I wrote that Mac Jones, barring showing himself to be a liability with accuracy or against the rush, would allow the Pats to get back to the kind of offense they want to run. I predicted that Belicihik and McDaniels would use Mac to get back to the old way of doing things sooner rather than later.

On August 4th I wrote that it appeared to be more Cam’s job to lose than Mac’s to win, and it was hard to see him not start the first half of the season, barring a meltdown by Cam. Cam’s awful first preseason game and his COVID debacle have definitely opened the door for Mac, but I have the feeling Cam will still get the start. However I don’t see him starting the first half of the season. He may not start the second half of the first game.

Reason being, as Tom Curran so eloquently put it, Mac Jones has made an incredibly solid case, most notably in joint practice with the Giants with Cam out. He has been not only the highest rated rookie passer in the preseason, he is one of the highest rated passers in the NFL this preseason.

This one is still, for some reason, undecided, but it’s not because we don’t know which QB makes the offense better and gives the team a better chance to win. And yes, you should be looking at him as a late-round QB3 in Superflex leagues. And unless you have a bye to cover in week 4, I wouldn’t worry about picking up Cam.

Fantasy Implications: Bump Meyers, Harris, White

QB Battle #2: Winston vs Hill

Winston slammed the door shut on any idea of Taysom starting with an eye-popping performance against the Jags first-team D. 9/10 passing, 128 yards, 2 TDs, and amazing pocket awareness on his second touchdown throw to recognize an unblocked defender, move to his right and time his throw to Callaway perfectly.

A month ago I wrote that barring any really negative camp reports or disasters in the preseason, he should win the starting job and was a steal at QB2 as the 28th QB off the board. I will admit after the first preseason game my confidence was shaken after neither QB really distinguished himself and he seemed hesitant in the pocket.

After Monday night’s game I dropped Matt Ryan for him in my Superflex money league (over $3k to first) and I’m happy with that decision still. I would not be surprised to see Jameis finish in the top-7 this year, even with Taysom coming in inside the five.

Fantasy Implications: Bump all Saints skill players, especially Callaway

QB Battle #3: Lock vs Bridgewater

A month ago I wrote that either player would be essentially a warm body at QB.

After the first preseason game I wrote that I thought Lock was the winner, but that I could see him playing his way out of the position and Teddy couldn’t overtake him on his own merits.

Though Lock did essentially sink his own ship in the second preseason game, I’ll say I was wrong here. Steady Teddy makes more sense for a team with a good defense and two good running backs, and Lock’s erratic play would torpedo the defense’s ability to keep them in games.

Fantasy Implications: Bump Jeudy, Fant, downgrade Sutton

QB Battle #4: Fields vs Dalton

“Rex is our quarterback.”

I’m still calling for a vague injury after Dalton gets destroyed behind what is now a suspect offensive line against the Rams week 1. Too bad because Fields could actually give the Bears a chance to win that game. If Nagy keeps Dalton in over Fields beyond that, expect calls for his head to get deafening in Chicago. If he keeps him in beyond week 4and the Bears are losing, Nagy and Pace should both be fired.

Fantasy Implications: Bump Rams Defense, Allen Robinson

QB Battle #5: Lance vs Garroppolo

At some point, probably against the Packers, 49ers fans will see this announcement and collectively lose their shit. However Lance has looked shaky at times during the preseason and might actually benefit from sitting for a game or three. But that’s it.

I originally predicted at the start of camps that we may not see Lance until November. I think he has greatly accelerated that timeline, but Jimmy will start the season and likely pile up a few wins. However, if Rodgers builds to a big lead in week 3, we may see a switch at halftime.

Fantasy Implications: Bump Deebo, Mostert; Downgrade Sherfield

Fake QB Battle: Trevor Lawrence vs Gaslighting

I’m not even going to write about Lawrence or his preseason. Instead I am going to write about what a clueless, inept jackass his coach is.

We have not even finished the preseason and he is already losing the locker room. And he tried really, really hard to do it. Urban Meyer has already proven that he is totally unfit for the NFL, and Shahid Khan is an idiot for bringing him out of retirement.

Meyer could have, at any point, looked at what had not worked for other college coaches making the transition to the pros, and learned from their mistakes. He could have realized that he is now dealing with professionals, not kids (Saban), and that gimmicky crap doesn’t work (Kelly).

Instead, he chose not to learn anything and immediately began repeating their mistakes, essentially gaslighting his number 1 pick and the media with a laughably false QB “competition” and bringing back Tim Tebow.

He has started off by insulting his number 1 pick and the entire NFL community in general, insulting every player on the camp roster by giving a spot to someone who hadn’t played a snap of pro football for years, and oh yeah, hiring a racist on staff.

I hate this for Lawrence, as he is saddled with a coach clearly out of his depth who refuses to learn, and an owner who clearly doesn’t give two shits about his team. He’s a good kid and a huge talent and if Meyer stays in Jacksonville past this season, his career and talent are going to be wasted.

I’m also sorry for anyone in Jacksonville who had hope for this team after wallowing in mediocrity for years. Because if Kahn cared or knew what he was doing, Eric Bienemy would currently be your head coach and you would be looking at a potentially great run with Lawrence under center. Instead you got a clown, hired by a clown, and a really shitty circus.

Fantasy Implications: Trade all Jags, this is going to be a shit-show

QB Battles Winners and Losers

After only one week of preseason it’s too early to call, but drafts are happening and have been happening, so one week might be the best data set you have to work with.

Superflex and 2QB leagues mean that every week 20-24 QBs are starting, and for those without roster limits, usually every starting QB is rostered. Let’s take a quick look at what we saw in preseason week 1 and see if that gives us any edge on predicting the eventual winner, which in many cases may not be the week 1 starter.

Fields vs Dalton, Bears

Winner: Fields

I watched every snap for both QBs and while Fields looked very much like a rookie, almost fumbling his first carry and taking a bit too long to release a throw in the end zone, he avoided any major mistakes in the first half, and tightened up considerably toward the end. His throws were accurate, and the game did not seem too big for him.

In the second half he really started to shine, obviously more comfortable (though playing against worse competition). He showcased his speed on a run to the sideline where he accelerated and picked up an extra 7-10 yards, outrunning a couple Dolphin defenders.

Loser: Nagy’s False Equivalency

Matt Nagy for some reason has clung to the example of Alex Smith and Pat Mahomes like it is some iron-clad formula for success that is applicable to any context. Here are some major differences:

  • Alex Smith was better then than Dalton is now
  • Andy Reid was not in danger of losing his job as Nagy is now

Plus, are we really to suffer under the assumption that Mahomes is looking like potentially the greatest QB of all time just because he sat behind Alex Smith for almost a full season? He put up video game numbers in college. He blew up the preseason his rookie year. This is one of the worst forms of mistaking correlation for causation I have ever seen.

When making the decision of starting a rookie QB, only two questions matter: Does starting the rookie give you a better chance to win now? Undoubtedly yes. Will starting the rookie negatively impact your chances to win later? Fields gave us no reason to think so.

Mac Jones vs Cam Newton, Patriots

Credit: Pats Pulpit

Winner: Mac Jones

The stats were in Mac’s favor, and they don’t even begin to tell the story, not even when looking at Newtons .3-yard depth of target. Most of Newton’s yards were added after the catch on two catch and runs by Jonnu Smith and James White, both thrown at or around the line of scrimmage. The offense was stagnant, Cam was holding on to the ball too long, and it just looked a lot like last year.

When Jones entered the offense immediately started clicking. He took instant command of the pocket, the ball came out on time and on target, and even though the playcalling was conservative, he showed that he simply allows the Patriots to do what the Patriots want to do on offense way better than Cam does.

Loser: Fantasy GMs

Unfortunately I don’t believe this was ever a true competition and I don’t believe Jones will start week 1, and I don’t know when he will start. And if you want to bet on guessing what Bill Belichik is thinking, good luck. If you want to depend on either as your QB2, you’ll have to take both QBs until Jones starts, because there is no way Cam starts the whole season. But there’s also no way of knowing how long he will play.

Drew Lock vs Teddy Bridgewater, Broncos

Winner: Drew Lock

We knew that Lock could throw the deep ball, but he put together an amazing fist couple of drives ending in this beautiful 80-yard bomb to KJ Hamler. But the bigger news was he just didn’t make any headscratcher throws, and he connected with Jerry Jeudy on a 33-yard catch and run.

Loser: Teddy Bridgewater

Teddy didn’t do anything wrong and I think this is still something that we could see switch later in the season. I don’t like betting on players to change their stripes in their third year, and I could see Lock playing his way out of the starting role. But given who Teddy is, I can’t see him overtaking Lock on his own merits.

Taysom Hill vs Jameis Winston, Saints

Credit: Saints Wire

Winner: Taysom Hill

I want to be clear that neither QB played well enough to cement a solid claim on the starting job. I’m giving it to Taysom based solely on the fact that he started. His accuracy was off, not on his interception which was due to a receiver quitting on his route, but just in general. He should have been picked off a second time.

Jameis looked like he was still having trouble with his reads and struggling under mild pressure. He did pick it up later on, but there was nothing convincing about his performance.

Loser: Me

I have been predicting Jameis as an incredible late-round value with an ADP in the 10th to serve as your QB2 this year, based on his one-year removed season leading the league in passing yards. This preseason game leads me to think that we may see multiple switches at QB in season, with both struggling.

The old adage may apply: If you’ve got two starting quarterbacks, you’ve got none.

Trey Lance vs Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers

Winner: 49ers Schedule

Lance did all the things we knew he could do: throw deep, throw accurate, throw on the run. Jimmy G looked exactly like the player we have seen for years, and is likely who we will see under center for most of this year.

The 49ers have the easiest schedule in the league. There is a very good chance they can amass a winning record in the first half just relying on their running game and their defense. As much as Lance looks ready and a superior talent to Garoppolo, the truth is the 49ers probably won’t need him to win games.

Loser: 49ers Fans

The most likely outcome is that fans are teased with Lance on situational plays and get only glimpses of his talent for the majority of the season. Those looking to make Lance their QB2 will either have to depend on their QB3 to start in the second QB or superflex slot, or hope to get lucky on the waiver wire.

Preseason Game Observations: August 12

Thursday’s preseason games had some interesting implications for 2QB dynasty and redraft leagues. I’ll be focusing on those as well as a few observations on running backs and wide receivers.

Eagles vs Steelers

Credit: USA Today

Hurts performed better than his stat line and did a few things that showed his stage in the maturation process. For one, he was plugging along nicely on his first drive until Zach Ertz let a perfectly thrown ball bounce off his hands on third down, killing his first drive.

On the next drive Hurts chose to dive, narrowly missing a first down instead of trucking the defender, which ended the drive as well. Had this been a regular season game he likely would have made the extra effort and gotten the first with his legs, but giving up on the play in preseason shows he is thinking the right way to stay under center for the Eagles.

Also, on a play where he was scrambling to his right to extend the play, he threw the ball out of bounds instead of trying to make something happen.

On the other side, Najee Harris looked much better than he did at the HOF game, showing impressive burst and the ability to quickly get to the second level of the defense through trash at the line. He had two runs called back with holding, and on both he gained about 9-10 yards. Neither of the holds freed him and one should not have been called.

JuJu Smith Schuster caught a lot of short passes out of the slot and hauled in all of his targets. While his yards per reception is going to go down, his receptions should go up. Dionte Johnson had a nice game as well.

Patriots vs WFT

Credit: The Sports Rush

This was the truly interesting game. Cam looked a lot like what we saw last year. He did not have a pass deep, and I think never threw further than 10 yards beyond the line. Almost all of yardage came from short passes that Jonnu Smith and James White took long, making their catches at or around the line of scrimmage. Newton narrowly avoided a fumble, and the offense simply was not clicking with him on the field.

Then Mac Jones came on the field.

Jones immediately showed what the Patriots have been seeing in recent practices: accurate throws, quick decisions, excellent pocket presence and footwork. While he was confined mostly to checkdowns, he was making excellent anticipation throws on time, in traffic, and on target. His first drive should have ended with a long touchdown along the left sideline but Kristian Wilkerson let the pass bounce off his hands.

Jones did miss Gunner Olsweski on a deep route later in the game and was obviously upset with himself, but had that been Nelson Agolhor or Kendrick Bourne, both absent, maybe that’s a completion.

Essentially, with Cam under center the offense looked stagnant. It didn’t click. With Mac under center it clicks, and it was obvious to anyone watching the game.

Another Pats camp storyline did not pan out, and that was the ascendence of N’Keal Harry. Whatever he has been showing in practice did not show up on the field, as N’Keal was overshadowed by Kristian Wilkerson. He just wasn’t getting open.

Antonio Gibson got a few carries and three receptions for WFT, but the rest of the offense was pretty boring to watch as the starters only saw a few series. Terry was Terry and Fitz looked sharp. The defense was the star of the show as one would expect.

2021 Schedule Impact on Rookie QBs

When rookie QBs figure into your draft plans, as they should in 2QB leagues, it’s worth a brief look at how strength of schedule will impact those players.

Most will correctly cite that strength of schedule should not have a huge impact on your draft, even in redraft. After all, playing against teams that consistently score enough to win games usually benefits fantasy players. Higher scores mean more shootouts, or garbage time which while more risky can pose more fantasy reward as defenses switch to prevent and give up yards in chunks.

However, when rookie QBs figure into your draft plans, as they should in 2QB leagues, it’s worth a brief look at how it will impact those players.

Bears

The Bears come in at the 9th hardest schedule in the league and start off against the LA Rams ferocious pass rush. Since Dalton has been named the week 1 starter, this schedule will likely play to Fields’s advantage in terms of taking over the team.

However Fields’s owners need to beware of a brutal stretch in the middle of the season where the Bears take on the Bucs, 49ers, Steelers, and Ravens coming out of their November 15th bye. Expect Fields to struggle during this stretch.

Patriots

The Pats get the 12th hardest schedule which puts them solidly in the middle, but on the harsher side of the fence. They don’t have a murderer’s row of defenses like the Bears do, but face teams that can put up some serious points, which bodes well for whichever QB gets the job.

I don’t expect Cam to lose the job because he is getting picked apart by secondaries or shut down by the pass rush (with the exception of the Bucs on October 3rd). I expect Cam to lose the job because he’s just not that great of a passer and Jones is simply a better fit for the offense that New England has run for the better part of the past 20 years.

If Jones gets the reigns after week 5 he has a very favorable schedule for fantasy success, starting against the Texans followed by the Cowboys and the Jets. I can’t really think of three teams more conducive to rookie success at QB.

Jets

Zach Wilson is basically unchallenged for the starting role, so the easier the better as there is no one ahead of him. The Jets have the 20th hardest schedule, but Wilson does face some tough defenses out of the gate with the Pats in week 2 and what should be a much improved Broncos defense in week 3.

I expect the first half of the season to be rough for Wilson which means he could be a better WW or mid-season trade target than a draft target. I like his upside after the second tilt against the Pats October 24, with only the Colts and Bucs looking like tough matchups from there on out.

Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence, head coach shenanigans aside, is the only rookie signal caller other than Wilson without even a modicum of competition for the job. Therefore, the Jaguars’ 24th-toughest schedule works in his favor.

Trevor gets to make his NFL debut against the Texans, who have all the appearances of being the worst team in the league on both sides of the ball. They have jettisoned talent all over the organization and are now left with no quarterback, no running game, no receivers to speak of, and lack a single name of import on the defensive side of the ball.

Games against the Colts, Niners, Rams and Colts will be tough (he faces the Colts again in week 18 but that shouldn’t matter for fantasy) but overall the schedule is good news for his rookie progress.

49ers

The Niners have the easiest schedule in the league, which is the worst news for those hoping for significant production out of Lance this season.

Even with mediocre play, Jimmy G should be able to keep his squad above .500 and thus in the postseason hunt, which is likely going to keep Lance on the sideline. They don’t play a serious defense until October 24 against the Colts, and shouldn’t even face a serious challenge (assuming Rodgers doesn’t play) until October 10th against the Cardinals.

They could conceivably go into that week 4-0, which means even if Garropolo goes into the bye with a loss, the team is still 4-1 and well positioned for a postseason run. That doesn’t scream “go with the totally untested rookie” to me.

Even if they drop their next 3 against the Colts, Bears, and Cardinals, it would be unwise to make Lance’s first NFL start against the Rams and what should be the best defense in the NFL. Which makes November 21st against the Jags Lance’s likely first game as a starter if he doesn’t win the job in camp.

Bonus: Eagles and Dolphins

Former teammates Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa both get the benefit of easy schedules (25th and 27th respectively) in their sophomore campaigns. Truth is, neither seemed fully NFL ready in their rookie years, though Hurts was able to use his legs to salvage poor passing performances.

Tua is not so lucky. He is closer to Aaron Rodgers as a runner than Lamar Jackson, so he needs some leaky secondaries to build his confidence and refine his game. Unfortunately he won’t get it early, facing the Colts, Bucs, and Pats in his first five games.

Hurts has an easier runway, with only the Niners defense looming large in the first five weeks, which will buy him much needed time to acclimate to the speed of the game and get better at reads. Hurts is currently going as QB12ish due to his rushing floor, and Tua is going around QB21.

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