Author: Stanley Holditch

Superflex QB Deep Dive Week 6

Teams on Bye: Saints, Jets, Falcons, Niners

Lamar Jackson attained God status Monday night in fantasy circles. Justin Herbert continues to render the best QB of the 2019 class a non-debate. Taylor Heinicke fell back to earth and Daniel Jones left hopeful owners holding the bag.

This Superflex QB Deep Dive Week 6 looks at QB starts for superflex and 2QB leagues, focusing on start decisions for the second QB or flex slot.

Automatic QB1 Starts

It’s not that guys on this list don’t have some questions and there isn’t some variance in performance, they are guys that I simply can’t see benching under any circumstance in superflex leagues.

Lamar Jackson vs the Chargers: The Chargers have been more successful than any other team at shutting down opposing QBs, but there is no way they stop the tear Lamar is on. What he did Monday night was truly special and will go down as one of the greatest single-game QB performances of all time. To all who drafted him congrats, enjoy the ride.

Josh Allen vs the Titans: Thus far the Titans have made Zach Wilson look competent and Trevor Lawrence look like a star. Just imagine what Josh Allen will do to them.

Justin Herbert vs the Ravens: Speaking of Monday night, one of the funniest things I heard was an announcer describing the Ravens defense as “league-leading.” I guess he just forgot it’s not 2000.

Kyler Murray vs the Browns: The Browns pass rush is impressive with Myles Garrett tearing through the league since his week 3 pantsing of the Bears, but Kyler has enough quicks and accuracy to escape and do plenty of damage downfield. Be aware that Murray is questionable with an issue with his throwing shoulder, conjuring bad memories of a 2020 campaign derailed.

Patrick Mahomes vs WFT: As bad as the Chiefs have been thus far Mahomes is still really good. Not the unquestioned QB1 anymore with Lamar and Kyler battling for that top spot, but WFT presents a get right opportunity for his team and his fantasy owners.

Tom Brady vs the Eagles: Thursday night has not been the fantasy curse it used to be. Tom should go for at least 325 and 3 against the Eagles.

Jalen Hurts vs the Bucs: Hurts is legit good, at least for fantasy, and you can’t really put the Eagles losses exclusively on him. The Bucs are giving up the 6th most fantasy points to QBs.

Mathew Stafford vs the Giants: Even when Stafford plays badly he ends up producing. He was inaccurate again week 5 and still managed 365 yards and a score against the Seahawks. The Giants give up the ninth most fantasy points to QBs.

Dak Prescott vs the Patriots: Dak just doesn’t need to pass that much to win. The Patriots defense is beatable on the ground as Fournette proved and I expect the Cowboys to lean on the run game, but Dak should still throw a few TDs and get around 280 yards.

Aaron Rodgers vs the Bears: This game is in Soldier Field and the Rodgers magic has not been what I thought it would be all season. The Packers have declining points in their past four games and Rodgers has only game with over 300 yards (which was last week).

Questionable QB Starts

Joe Burrow vs the Lions

The question is not, and really never has been Joe Burrow’s ability. Despite an absolutely perplexing interception against the Packers, Burrow is playing excellent football. The only reason I consider him a questionable start this game is that he was forced to throw more against Jacksonville and Green Bay. The way Detroit is playing I am not sure that will be the case, so this comes down to Mixon’s health. If Mixon gets a full vote of confidence for a regular snap share for this game, Burrow becomes a more questionable start. If Mixon is not fully healthy, we can expect the attempts to stay north of 30 and a good game.

Baker Mayfield vs the Cardinals

Baker had his best game of the season in absolute offensive explosion against the Chargers. The Cardinals are in the bottom third in the league in fantasy points allowed to QBs and that makes it unlikely that Mayfield repeats his 300+ yard performance. Baker is just not a plus prospect at the position and is thoroughly average at the position. I think he makes for a decent QB2 start, but don’t expect anything like last week which is an anomoly for him.

Trevor Lawrence vs the Dolphins (UK)

I am really not sure what the NFL is trying to do by shipping its worst teams to the UK…is this supposed to help the brand? Anyway, Trevor predictably broke out against the Titans and his buy low window might be over, but it’s still worth a shot to try and nab him for an underperforming veteran.

Week 5

What’s missing from this chart is his rushing performance (7-28-1) which made this a really solid fantasy day. His arrow is pointing up and Urban Meyer must be fired if he doesn’t get this win, and really should have been fired this week. I don’t know what else Khan needs to see to admit a mistake and move on. The team has. Solid start against the Dolphins and still a buy-low.

Kirk Cousins vs the Panthers

The bloom has come off the rose. Since his scorching start to the season, Cousins has turned in below average performances in his past two starts, only notching a single TD in each and staying below 300 yards in each contest. He has zero rushing upside giving him a very shaky floor. Carolina is averaging 3.2 sacks per game through five, and I don’t think that his old legs can evade their pass rush. The Panthers have softened a bit but also are only allowing a 58% completion rate this season and 63% in their last three. Sit Cousins this week for higher upside options at QB like Fields and for emerging skill position flexes like Kadarius Toney and Devonta Booker.

Sam Darnold vs the Vikings

Another QB who started hot but is now seeing his value plummet is Sam Darnold. He didn’t just have a down game against the Eagles—he had a total meltdown. 177 yards, 1 touch, 3 ints. His rushing floor disappeared as well (2-10 and no scores).

Week 5 – Shit Got Ugly

Minnesota is stiffening against QBs lately (59% completion rate in their last 3). I would sit Darnold for higher upside options like Trevor, Heinicke, and Fields or a high-upside skill player.

Daniel Jones vs the Rams

If Daniel Jones plays, which is looking more likely after he was seen tossing the ball around at practice, I think he makes for a really solid start and could be a good buy low. Beware that he was not performing well AT ALL vs the Cowboys before he went out, but the Cowboys are playing lights out on defense under Dan Quinn and that was an easy call. The Rams defense is a shell of its former self, and I think they would give up a lot of points to Jones if he plays. Solid start if healthy.

Carson Wentz vs the Texans

Wentz had one hell of a night Monday night. After turning in average performances all season, he broke out for 400+ yards and two TDs in what looked like it was going to be a route of the Ravens. Then Lamar put the entire franchise on his back and willed his team to a victory. One can’t discount this performance for Wentz completely, but expecting it to become the norm would be a mistake.

Week 5

The long TD was more of a great play by Pittman than Wentz, as Pittman had to come back to the ball and catch the ball over a defenders helmet. The Texans are not as bad against the pass as some might expect, ranking 14th in fantasy points allowed to QBs. Expect something more along the lines of 250 yards and 1-2 TDs, not anything close to Monday night. If that’s better than your other options, start away.

Mac Jones vs the Cowboys

Mac Jones had a down week against the Texans as the Patriots tried to achieve more balance in run vs pass. He tied his career-low in pass attempts with 30, and the Patriots found themselves down early against the Texans and needing a comeback to win. The balance was pure 50/50 if you count Mac’s run for 3 yards. Not only did the formula not work, not only did Harris once again fumble near the goal line almost costing them a win as in week 1 against the Dolphins, but there’s very little chance New England’s defense is stout enough allow a run-friendly game script. Thus I think we see Mac with around 40 attempts, which has provided good enough numbers for a QB2 start thus far. I expect at least 1 pick, possibly 2, but also around 275 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Derek Carr vs the Broncos

Poor Derek Carr. Say whatever you want about Gruden, he was good for Derek Carr’s career and was an unabashed supporter. I can’t imagine losing Gruden is a good thing for Carr or the team in general. He fell victim to a very good Bears defense that currently ranks 1st in sacks per game, holding him to just 206 yards and 1 interception and no scores and sacking him 3 times. The Broncos are 1st in completion percentage allowed at 56% on the season. Last game’s chart is not pretty:

Week 5: Under Pressure

All the throws bunched around the LOS show that the Bears were successful in disrupting Carr’s game with pressure. The Broncos can likely achieve coverage sacks with Surtain and Fuller while doubling Waller. Given all the turbulence I see a down night for Carr, sit for better options.

Taylor Heinicke vs the Chiefs

The Chiefs are a get-right matchup (#1 in fantasy points allowed to QBs) for Heinicke who is alternating good and bad weeks. If he can’t get it done against the Chiefs and throws up another stinker, the team will have to think about turning back to Ryan Fitzpatrick, even though he’s not exactly a paragon of stability himself. If you have Heinicke rostered and don’t have really great options he’s a must start in this opportunity. He must know the pressure is on, and one thing we have learned about Heinicke is that he leaves absolutely nothing on the field. Start.

Teddy Bridgewater vs the Raiders

The Raiders are actually pretty tough on opposing QBs, but in superflex leagues it’s hard to sit someone who just turned in 288-2-1. Bridge is a good bet for solid QB2 production with QB1 upside. He’s top 10 in intended air yards (9.2) and the Sutton connection is going to start hitting, possibly this weekend. He’s also a good buy-low with Jeudy coming off IR sooon.

Ryan Tannehill vs the Bills

Sooooo Tannehill is not looking good this season. He’s currently sandwiched between Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz in average fantasy points per game. And what’s worse, his points have declined for 3 straight weeks. His rating and completion percentage have been erratic, and he’s 22nd in EPA+CPOE composite. And now he gets the Bills, 1st against QBs. We are all hoping that this is AJ Brown’s breakout week, but wouldn’t that mean that it has to at least be a significant improvement for Tannehill? Against the #1 pass defense in the league? It’s hard to see, especially with their offense running completely through Henry and no one seemingly able to stop it. Sit if you have better options.

Justin Fields vs Packers

Over the last three games, the Bears are dead last in pass attempts per game. As in 19 attempts per game. Those games were the offensive black hole against Cleveland, the not nearly as close as the score looked game against the Lions, and the drubbing of the Raiders this past Sunday. Does anyone on earth think that the Bears can have a shred of hope against the Packers throwing 19 times and relying on Damien Williams and Herbert to win? Me neither. Just to put that number in perspective, the next closest attempts/game are the Saints with 26 over the same span. The Packers have the sixth most pass attempts against them in the past 4 weeks (excluding the anomaly against the Saints). So how did Fields look against the Raiders?

Week 5: In a word, not good

But consider that Fields has shown a good deep ball, Packers’ opposing QBs are averaging 38 attempts per game, he could be looking at his breakout week. And he is not rushing the ball, at all, right now. 4 yards against the Raiders. Expect attempts—passing and rushing—to skyrocket against the Packers.

Abandon All Hope, Ye Who Start These Guys

Jacoby Brisset: Big bag of nope on this one.

Davis Mills: I actually almost put him into the questionable start category but I need to see one more game like his last one.

Gentle Ben: A shell of his former self, might be time for the shelf. Eat some hay? I just may…

Jared Goff: Just not getting it done, 0-5, poor Lions fans.

Geno Smith: Yes, Geno looked great in relief of Wilson, but I refuse to believe you don’t have better starting options somewhere on your roster. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he outplayed Tannehill.

The Glass Houses of the NFL

Unfortunately necessary disclaimer: Gruden’s comments were stupid, and indicative of a sad, irrelevant man who is angered by change.

When I first heard the colloquial version of Jesus’s teaching “let those who are without sin cast the first stone” it made a lot of sense. It was easy to visualize and understand. Yet it escapes the NFL and some of its franchises.

“Those who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones” is more of a warning whereas Jesus’s version was more of an admonition. It recognizes that aggression towards others has a certain karmic boomerang affect.

Both versions apply to the NFL and now the Buccaneers this week. The Raiders, at the obvious behest of the NFL, cast out Jon Gruden for language and opinions that have been deemed misogynistic, homophobic, and racist by the New York Times.

Of course, the emails were not made public. If you can find any of them in their full text please send them to me @2qbfantasy They were slowly and intentionally leaked to the New York Times by the NFL, who uncovered the emails during their sham investigation into the horrific, toxic culture of the WFT (then Washington Redskins) which embraced sexual harassment and bullying as a way of life, and pimped out its own cheerleaders to skybox holders during an unpaid (but forced) trip to Costa Rica.

We know all these things because the victims of Snyder’s toxic culture spoke out, not due to an investigation that did actually happen. We actually don’t know anything about that investigation, because the NFL took it over, ran it, and once it was over, buried everything.

The Glass House of the NFL

The owners run and own the NFL. More than any other body in existence, the NFL is essentially immune from outside influence, scrutiny, and accountability. They run their own media, and control what they don’t own by carefully guarding access to teams, players, coaches, and content. They conduct their own investigations, carefully choose who gets to see the results, and weaponize the results against anyone who displeases them.

The reason only the New York Times has seen the emails with Jon Gruden’s inflammatory language is because showing their full text would elicit questions: who else is on the emails, who responded, what were the responses. All things we will never know. Another thing we will never know is the content of the other 649,997 emails that were examined as part of the NFL’s investigation into Synder’s toxic culture.

Gruden’s emails were exposed to the Times because he insulted Goodell and other owners. If you think, for a second, that the NFL actually cares about homophobic language, read the lyrics of who they just hired to play their Superbowl Halftime Show:

The NFL is shocked and reviled by misogyny? Really? Hate to dip into the Superbowl again but “Bitches ain’t shit but hoes and tricks” ring a bell with anyone?

But the real story is that the NFL is actively suppressing results that would embarrass or in any way harm the owners. The NFL actively passed up its chance to clean its own house by taking over the Snyder investigation and burying the results. Why the New York Times chose to play patsy in this game is beyond anyone who still considers it a bastion of journalism. But the distraction—the karmic boomerang—seems to be heading back in the NFL’s direction.

Seems like there are at least 40 people aiming stones at the NFL’s house right now, and its transparent walls made of fake virtue against misogyny and homophobia are about to come crashing down.

The Glass House of the Buccaneers

Unable to restrain themselves from letting a good crisis go to waste, the Buccaneers released the following:

It is really hard to believe that the Bucs are trying to rewrite their own history in this way. You would think the team that employed the offending person might keep their head down, but no, they had to jump on Gruden’s warm corpse.

First, one would have to believe that the Bucs were completely unaware of Gruden’s personality when they hired him away from the Raiders and the entire time they employed him. I’m not a Bucs fan, but even so I’m none too thrilled about having my intelligence insulted to this degree. You would have to be a special kind of idiot to think that the Bucs had no idea who Gruden was and weren’t all too happy to employ him for a king’s ransom for a shot at a title (which he gave them by the way).

One would also have to ignore that they currently employ Antonio Brown, who settled a lawsuit for sexually assaulting a trainer, and beat the shit out of a truck driver for no reason at all. And they just signed Richard Sherman who was just arrested for showing up wasted and harassing his wife at his in-laws.

So, please Bucs, get off the high horse and stop pretending you give two shits about anything other than wins.

The Coming Shit-Storm

Hopefully here is what follows: the lawsuit from the enraged 40 former employees either gets access to the currently buried results of the investigation or sues the NFL and the WFT, and everything including everything said and done by every owner sees the light of day.

The New York Times, seeing that they were used as a patsy, seeks to salvage their reputation by actually going after, oh I don’t know, the truth, instead of what they were spoon-fed by Goodell.

We all find out not only what happened in WFT hallways, but what everyone said when Kaepernick protested, and when many members follow suit. What all the owners really think about their boys club getting taken over and democratized. And hopefully the NFL realizes its place is entertainment, not in pretending to be the opposite of what they are: a paragon of virtue.

Waiver Wire Week 5 (for Week 6)

I won’t bother commenting on the entire Raiders fiasco with Jon Gruden as this is going to be fodder for the dumbest and worst impulses American media has to offer. I’m sure Fox News has already run 2-3 hours of commentary about cancel culture run amok, while CNN and MSNBC have engaged in collective pearl clutching and ranting about white privilege.

The only thing more deafening than this noise is the silence surrounding the actual case, which concerns the toxic culture surrounding the Washington Football Team under owner Dan Snyder, which included a lot more than salty language in emails.

The NFL, which is owned by the individual team owners, conducted its own investigation into itself, examined over 650,000 emails, as well as countless complaints of sexual harassment and abuse at the hands of WFT ownership and leadership. Yet we know absolutely nothing about the findings of that investigation. The NFL has not released a single email, including the Gruden emails, to the public. The complaints alleged by multiple female employees of WFT have not been answered.

Gruden was a dumbass for writing what he did. I personally don’t like what he wrote, but I am far from shocked by it and neither is anyone else who has worked for or around the NFL. But he was not forced to step down for using offensive language in an email. He was forced to step down because he insulted the owners and Goodell, and his firing provides a nice virtue-signaling distraction from why none of us have ever seen any results of that “investigation.”

Waiver Wire Quarterbacks Week 5

Guys like Taylor Heinicke and Daniel Jones disappointed their owners big time last week, but one had to see Daniel Jones’s poor play prior to injury coming against a division rival with a surging defense. The bid percentages are going up as FA Budgets dwindle.

Carson Wentz, 14% rostered, 35% FAAB

Wentz put on a show last night in a losing effort, racking up points and getting things started with a nice 75-yard catch and run TD by Jonathan Taylor. He also hit Pittman for a TD who made an incredible effort to come back for the ball and catch it over a defenders helmet. Don’t expect a repeat as the Ravens played God-awful, but at least his ankle worries are behind him.

Teddy Bridgewater, 14% rostered, 40% FAAB

Bridge bounced back from a concussion with 38 attempts, 288 yards, and two touchdowns. He gets Jeudy back soon and is a more stable source of points than most of the guys on the WW.

Geno Smith, 1% rostered, 25% FAAB

Though only a band-aid, Smith actually looked better than Wilson once he went in. The offense improved, and he seemed more than capable of leading a team until Wilson gets back. This does happen with backups, who come in and deliver in the excitement of seeing the field and then fall flat after a week of practice, but Smith seems a good enough band-aid for now.

Drops: Zach Wilson, Jacoby Brissett,

Waiver Wire Running Backs Week 5

Devontae Booker, 9% rostered, 15% FAAB

Booker is going to get volume in an offense that relies on the run, and figures to get passing game work as well as the Giants did not have a dedicated passing down back. The only thing holding his bid amount down is how long Barkley will be out. Saquon could be out only for next week, so some of the other guys might seem more appealing.

Darrel Williams, 19% rostered, 25% FAAB

Darrel will get all of CEH’s touches and possibly a bit more as McKinnon is not suited for goal line work. The problem is that he’s getting the lion’s share of basically jack shit. The Chiefs don’t feature the run game and they don’t pass to their backs with any sort of regularity. Maybe a 2-3 record will change that, but betting on Andy Reid to massively change what has been, until this year, a successful formula is kinda dumb. Though the Chiefs are running a somewhat respectable 38% of the time at 28 times a game over their last three, their defense is stopping no one and that means fewer rushing attempts as the game goes on.

Khalil Herbert, 19% rostered, 15% FAAB

Herbert pushed his way into a 50/50 timeshare with Damien Williams, with Williams seeing the GL looks and targets. Williams looked absolutely terrible at the GL. I expect Herbert to get a crack, but it’s just as likely that the Bears use Ryan Nall or Justin Fields in GL packages. The Bears rushed 37 times in the game against the Raiders which went 100% their way. The coming week against the Packers I don’t expect that to happen, and the Bears will likely be playing catch up. It will be interesting to see how this split goes when the Bears are playing from behind, and the degree to which the Bears abandon the run and let Fields throw.

David Johnson, 29% rostered, 5% FAAB

Talk about desperation, rostering a Texan at this point in the season means you are in serious trouble. However, Johnson is seeing consistent targets, the offense did show signs of life against New England, and neither Ingram nor Lindsay are showing anything at all.

Drops: No one, if you have a warm body hold on for dear life.

Waiver Wire Wide Receivers Week 5

Kadarius Toney, 18% rostered, 75-95% FAAB

If Toney is available go ahead and blow the rest of your budget on him. He’s flat out better than every other receiver on the team. He likely won’t approach these numbers again but there is no way the Giants take him off the field.

Darnell Mooney, 45% rostered, 25% FAAB

The Bears are going to fall behind early and will be forced to let Fields try to win the game. This means another big game for Mooney. If he was dropped in your league snatch him up ahead of this game.

Marquez Callaway, 30% rostered, 25% FAAB

Saints have a bye coming up, and yes Michael Thomas is on his way back, and yes they still only let Jameis pass 30 times a game, but he has skills, the opportunity will still be there after Thomas returns, and the Saints might come out of the bye with a more aggressive offense more suited to Callaway’s skill set. Worth a stash.

Rondale Moore, 40% rostered, 25% FAAB

No big week but snap share is rising, Maxx Williams is out with a knee injury, and he’s on one of the most prolific offenses in football. Rather than banking on talent with a lesser QB, opt for Rondale’s excellent situation and steadily rising opportunity.

Drops: Juju, Elijah Moore

Waiver Wire Tight Ends Week 5

Honestly tight end this year is just a whole lot of nothing. The best options are name like Ricky Seals Jones, Hunter Henry, and Dan Arnold, a depressing mi of limited ability and opportunity. Focus on the WRs and RBs as nothing is really emerging at tight end. Maybe a buy-low offer for TJ Hockenson if you are in need.

Streaming DST Picks

Cincinnati Bengals vs Detroit Lions: Hey, it worked fr Minnesota, and Detroit looks absolutely lost right now and just lost their best receiver.

Miami vs Jacksonville (UK): The Jets+London made the Falcons a winning DST start. Why not Miami?

Will Kyle Pitts Break Out Week 5?

Calvin Ridley is not making the trip to London, and thus whether or not this will be Kyle Pitts’s break out week is one of the biggest questions in fantasy.

Obviously it’s impossible to say. Pitts is confusing because his predictor stats are all lining up, and he has all the talent in the world. His targets are 7th in the league for tight ends. He has a 76% snap share percentage despite being a rookie. His ADOT is 8.4 on the year (higher than Kelce and TJ Hockenson). So a break out feels inevitable.

But maybe it feel inevitable because there are so many of us who want to believe it will happen. Wanting to believe is one of the most dangerous things in fantasy.

Tale of the Tape: Kyle Pitts Week 4

This section is not meant to be pretty, but the plays are all there for you to see if you want to see them. Big thanks to East Coast Taffy for the Pitts target video. Some of the most useful content out there for fantasy film study. Definitely give them a subscribe.

I’d love to embed the videos but the NFL won’t allow it, so here are my observations with timestamped links to the videos.

https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=29
Pitts completion, throw into double coverage


https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=48
3rd and 10, Ryan throws complete to Pitts on sideline


https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=57
On this last one Pitts is drawing triple coverage in end zone, #17 and #4 are both open with single coverage. Ryan missed a TD here by going for Pitts. At this point in the game Pitts is heavily targeted, but Ryan knows he missed a TD. Also, Ryan recently admitted that Pitts is drawing a lot of attention from opposing defenses, even compared him to Julio albeit grudgingly.


https://youtu.be/qS4Uj6XGRH0?t=287
Pitts target, incomplete, near interception


https://youtu.be/qS4Uj6XGRH0?t=297
Pitts target, incomplete


https://youtu.be/qS4Uj6XGRH0?t=318
Pitts target in end zone, knocked away, triple coverage


https://youtu.be/qS4Uj6XGRH0?t=338
Complete, does not make first down


https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=93
Pitts up top in single coverage but Ryan takes quick out to Patterson and gets first down after the catch.


https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=339
Ryan opts for Ridley rather than deeper Pitts because of possible double coverage on Pitts


https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=352
Patterson TD, Pitts used to draw coverage away from middle


https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=459
Second Patterson TD, Pitts in double coverage in middle, Patterson in single coverage on the outside


https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=475
Pitts in single coverage for 2pt try, Ryan looks his way and goes to Zachius in middle of end zone, drop


https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=558
Pitts target 3:49 left in third, completion


https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=565
Pitts and Patterson open, throw goes to Ridley on closer route

Pitts and Patterson splitting safety running free, Ryan throws to Ridley

https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=637
Pitts breaking, but Ryan goes to check down in Davis


https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=896
Pitts wide open, Ryan completes to Ridley on deeper route – good play


https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=909
Ryan runs instead of throwing, Pitts open. This one occurs when the Falcons are down a score late in the game. This was a serious mistake by Ryan as his run takes up a lot of clock, and it appears Pitts is open:

Pitts breaking, Ryan still in the pocket
Pitts open, Ryan moving up in the pocket with 6 yards to LOS
Seeing space, Ryan opts for run with 18 seconds left

https://youtu.be/6JQCcm8pItM?t=923
Final play, Pitts open at top of screen, Ryan throws jump ball to middle of end zone instead of targeting Pitts in stride and hoping for YAC into end zone

Conclusions

Ryan is aware that Pitts is drawing double teams and the most attention from opposing defenses. Ryan, I believe, knows his arm strength is waning and doubts his ability to hit longer throws with the same consistency he can hit shorter throws. On routes out wide, Pitts is often running deeper routes than Ridley.

Ryan did not, at the end of the game, opt to try throws to Pitts, instead opting to run the ball and then to throw into the middle of the end zone. On both plays, Pitts was open and could have made something happen after the catch.

I think the combination of Ryan’s doubt in his arm, lack of trust/chemistry with Pitts and fear of the tight coverage Pitts is getting keeps him from targeting him. I think he feels more comfortable throwing to Patterson who is still seeing single coverage on most routes and generally is close to the LOS making the throws require less force and velocity. We’ve seen from Ryan’s charts he is bunching his throws under 15 yards out from the LOS.

So, we are either betting on all of these things changing this week because Ridley is out, or things staying basically the same. After reviewing film, the only thing that would make this change in my opinion is teams scheming to take away Patterson.

So does Saleh do this well? In week two Courtland Sutton went off to the tune of 159 yards against the Jaguars. In week three against the Jets he was held to 37 yards. In week three Nick Westbrook caught a TD for the Titans week 3 against the Colts. He was held scoreless week 4 against the Jets. We know Saleh is a great defensive coach from his time at San Francisco, so it would be reasonable to expect that he takes away Ryan’s safety valve in Patterson while ratcheting up pressure on Ryan and trying to force throws to someone else.

But will that free up Pitts? Who knows…the Jets are not great against the pass (bottom 10 rank in completion percentage) so they may not have the personnel to take away Pitts and Patterson.

Long story short, Pitts remains an extremely risky start this week as it all banks on Saleh deciding to take away Patterson instead of Pitts. It also banks on Pitts running shorter routes to fit into Ryan’s comfort zone of 15 yards or less. But if both of those things happen, Pitts’s break out should be this week.

Sit/Start Week 5

If you are looking for advice on QBs please see our in-depth weekly column here. This is exclusively dedicated to the other skill position players.

Week 4 dispelled some myths and confirmed some trends. Myths dispelled were that the Bengals can only support one receiver, Barkley is washed up, and the Rams are a surefire bet for the Superbowl. Trends that held up are that Derrick Henry can literally carry a team by himself, Ryan’s deep ball is gone, and that Kyler Murray is going to keep spreading the ball around because it works.

Running Back Starts

Obviously start Henry, Cook against the Lions, and McCaffrey if he plays.

Darrel Henderson vs Seahawks

Henderson had a great game in a losing effort last week and should be able to feast in this game against the Seahawks who are allowing 4.6 ypc through four weeks. The Rams desperately need to get back on track after a disastrous combo of bad coaching and poor QB play from Stafford.

Antonio Gibson vs Saints

The Saints appear to have a good game in them every other week. They flubbed it against the Giants in week 4 so this should be their week to stiffen against the pass, meaning more focus on the run for WFT. I like Gibson to break 100 and get at least one score. They gave up 4.2 ypc to Barkley, I think Gibson should get at least that.

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt vs Chargers

The Chargers are shutting down QBs on the regular. Dak in week 2, Mahomes in week 3, and Carr in week 4, all under 270 yards. Chances are Baker will be handing the ball off about 40 times this game. Fire both both up as RB2s.

Saquon Barkley vs Cowboys

Dallas is in the bottom ten allowing 4.7 ypc, Barkley should be feasting again as the defense focuses on generating turnovers from Daniel Jones.

Trey Sermon vs the Cardinals

About the only thing that worked against the Cardinals for the Rams last week was Darrel Henderson. With Lance likely making his first start under center, Shanahan will look to protect him for a Fields-type debut by running the ball often, I think Sermon has a big day, potentially over 120 and 2 touchdowns.

Cordarelle Patterson vs Jets (UK)

Patterson SZN is in full effect. Ridley is missing the game, but honestly I don’t think he was cutting into Patterson’s targets anyway. I don’t know how it’s happening…oh wait yeah I do: Ryan’s arm is chewed bubble gum and he’s afraid to throw more than 10 yards downfield.

Running Back Sits

Obviously sit any back for the Texans, Dolphins, or Ravens.

DeAndre Swift vs Vikings

There is no stability in Swift and not really any for Jamal Williams either. Neither back can be trusted until the Lions rushing volume increases (22nd in attempts per game).

Damien Harris vs Texans

Someone is going to be getting more running back snaps for the Patriots who are 30th in the league in attempts, but do you really want to guess who? Would you be surprised if it was Branden Bolden, or Rhamondre Stevenson, only to see them disappear next week? Me neither. Pass.

Austin Ekeler vs Browns

The Browns defense deserves more credit than they are getting right now. I think they clamp down hard on Herbert and Larry Rountree ends up with a better stat-line, albeit not a good one.

Wide Receiver Starts

Obviously start guys like Kupp, Metcalf, Samuel, and Adams.

Laviska Shenault vs Titans

This is a blow up spot for Viska and his QB. Chark is out of the picture meaning more downfield routes, and Viska responded in a big way agains the Bengals.

Adam Thielen vs Lions

I expect both Vikings receivers to have big days against the worst pass defense in the league, but I especially think Thielen is in for a big day. I’m thinking only about 75 yards but two scores. Just call it a feelin.

Jamaar Chase vs Packers

The Packers are delivering one of the lowest YPA rates in the league. But Jair Alexander is injured and I don’t necessarily expect a shootout, but think this will be a higher passing volume game than Cincinnati is used to. I could see 40 attempts for Burrow without a healthy Mixon, and Chase should be the beneficiary.

Stefon Diggs vs Chiefs

Diggs’s breakout has not happened yet but it will happen this week against the Chiefs porous secondary. Buffalo will try to control the game with the run which will bring up safeties and free Diggs for multiple deepshots downfield. 120+ yards and at least a score.

Kadarius Toney vs Cowboys

The Cowboys are going to put Diggs on Golladay after his big week last week and focus on harassing Jones. Toney should be able to get open underneath and provide a good safety valve for Jones. I think 85+ yards and a score are in the cards.

Wide Receiver Sits

AJ Brown vs Jaguars

Remember, Brown wasn’t playing well before he got injured. If he plays this feels like a blow-up game, but I’d rather risk that on my bench than a 4-45 effort or an early exit.

Mike Evans vs Dolphins

The Bucs won’t need much other than Fournette to win this one. This feels like an odd one out game for Mike, as Xavien Howard focuses on him.

DK Metcalf vs Rams

There’s one thing on the Rams defense that still seems to work, and that’s blanket coverage from Jalen Ramsey. He’ll be jonesing for a challenge like Metcalf, and I think he wins more than he loses. I’m thinking Wilson takes the easy answer and this is a Lockett game.

Tight End Starts

You’re starting Kelce, Waller, and… ok that’s it.

Mike Gesicki vs Bucs

The Bucs absolutely suck against the pass, as shown by the Cardinals easily shutting down the Rams passing attack that basically raped them two weeks ago. They also gave up 19 straight completions to Mac Jones in the driving rain. Even with Brissett, Gesicki should be in line for at least 85 yards and a score.

Dawson Knox vs Chiefs

Knox is rolling and there is no reason to think that stops against the Chiefs terrible defense. Start with confidence, expect a TD and 45 yards.

Dalton Schultz vs Giants

Schultz is real this season. He had 58 and a touch last week in a run-heavy game script and saw 79% of the snaps. Right now Dak is relying on Schultz more than Lamb or Cooper. Weird, but true.

Tight End Sits

Tyler Higbee vs Seahawks

The Hawks are bad against the pass but this is a Rams team looking to recover its identity following a devastating loss, and Higbee is not the way to do that. I think Kupp, Woods, and Jackson feast and Higbee gets scraps.

Mark Andrews vs Colts

When Lamar Jackson throws for 300+ and you don’t have a good game, something is off on the connection. Getting LeVeon Bell involved in the passing game as well as Bateman make Andrews a risky play.

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