Category: Sit/Start

I decided to stop doing weekly rankings. The focus of this site is helping fantasy managers navigate superflex and 2QB leagues and while rankings are fun, I don’t feel like doing them adds value to the fantasy community. Sites like fantasypros.com already aggregate weekly rankings from tons of experts, and if you are a serious fan I would definitely recommend paying for a season-long subscription to footballguys.com, the best dedicated football fantasy site on the planet.

In place of rankings every week I will be taking a deep dive into QB performance, with a focus on the QBs that have questions. I won’t spend too much time on guys like Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and other obvious every-week starts unless their play deviates to the point that there are legitimate questions about the value they provider to your fantasy team.

Instead this column will focus on QBs with questions, and will serve as a combined sit-start/buy-low-sell-high for those QBs. I’ll do a separate column on non-QB skill players starts for the week.

QB Starts with Few to No Questions

These are in order, but if you are playing superflex you’re starting all these guys unless you play in a 4-team league.

Josh Allen vs Texans: Bad defense, bad team, great QB on the ascension. Don’t expect something equal to last week as they will lean on run in 4th quarter.

Kyler Murray vs Rams: Needs to rely less on talent and more on game plan, but great play.

Tom Brady vs Patriots: What more can be said. Expect Tom’s best game. New England has faced Tua, Zach Wilson, and Jameis, so any defensive stats don’t apply.

Lamar Jackson vs Broncos: Bateman back, will be eased in but Lamar needs another target. Will get a lot done with his legs.

Patrick Mahomes vs Philly: Didn’t stop Dak, won’t stop Patrick.

Rodgers vs Steelers: If Watt plays expect more sacks and dump offs, still QB1.

Stafford vs Cardinals: Stafford is a top-five QB over Rodgers rest of season.

Justin Herbert vs Raiders: No reason to think about this going against a middling pass defense.

Derek Carr vs Chargers: Yardage will come down this game against 7th-ranked pass D but no reason to sit.

Russel Wilson vs 49ers: Low volume passing efficiency – 28th in attempts, 9th in yards.

Dak Prescott vs Panthers: Panthers could spell trouble in pass rush and Chargers shut him down week 2. Even with questions he is starting unless you have two of the above.

Jalen Hurts vs Chiefs: He showed he can overcome adversity and deliver a good fantasy day. No reason to sit him against the Chiefs.

Kirk Cousins vs Browns: Ride the lightning. The TDs are going to come down, likely this week facing Myles Garrett, but no reason to sit him.

QBs with Major Questions

These are not in any particular order, just looking into issues facing QBs and trying to find answers.

Joe Burrow vs Jaguars

The Bengals currently have the second-fewest pass attempts per game in the league through three weeks, behind only the New Orleans Saints. This is extremely troubling for Burrow’s prospects as this is one game away from being a solid trend in the league.

This compares with the Bengals having the 2nd-most pass attempts per game last year with Burrow behind center. The Bengals are currently 2-1. That is the same number of wins they had last year in the ten games where Burrow was averaging 42 attempts per game.

Last week against the Steelers he had a season-low 18 pass attempts and was incredibly efficient with those passes even though he did throw a pick (14-18, 78%, 3-1, 172).

Most likely, unless the Jaguars turn into a different team, they will not provide Zac Taylor any reason to turn away from a formula that is working better than last year. We often just see fantasy potential and forget that the only thing that the players and coaches care about is the W/L column. I don’t expect more than 25 pass attempts vs the Jags.

The worst part about this is that Burrow has improved in every possible measurement: he’s gone from 26th to 2nd against the blitz according to PFF. Except for his head-scratching 3-int game against the Bears (in three pass attempts) his grades are above 120. Completed air yards are up as well. He’s showing incredible chemistry with Jamaar Chase.

Burrow is not a solid start this week according to the trend. Jacksonville is a middling rush defense and leaning on Mixon once again should work. If you are looking to offload Burrow, wait until after his game next week against the Packers where the Bengals will have to keep up with the Packers offense.

Trevor Lawrence vs Bengals

When you draft a rookie QB, you expect turnovers. Most leagues only penalize interceptions to the tune of -1 or -2 points. They are absorbable if your QB is getting you massive yardage and touchdowns. See Jameis Winston 2019.

Trouble is, for the past two games, Lawrence’s yardage and TD output have taken a massive hit, making him a fantasy dud to the point you would be better in most leagues starting a decent WR3, RB3, or TE2 over him in your superflex spot. After hitting for 332-3-3 in week 1 he’s gone 118-1-2 and 219-1-2.

Furthermore, he’s on an 0-3 team about to be 0-4. Meyer has absolutely no business coaching in the NFL. But there are reasons for hope. Just probably not this week.

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Here's every relevant quarterback this season, the number of total pass attempts they've thrown, the number of those that have gone 15 or more air yards, the rate they've gone 15 or more air yards, and the completion rate on those 15-plus air yard throws. pic.twitter.com/HELbCKqXyf

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) September 28, 2021

The attempts, deep throws, and deep completion rate are all there, meaning after this game Trevor could be a good buy low. Cincinnati is 8th against the the run and 14th against the pass, mostly because they gave up 351 to Cousins week 1 in an overtime game and basically allowed Ben to dink and dunk his way to 318 in a game the controlled all the way. Trevor is a sit this week if you have decent options.

Taylor Heinicke vs Falcons

Heinicke was flat out bad against the Bills. A completion rate below 60% and 212-2-2 in a game that was never close. No one should have expected that he would duplicate his Thursday night effort against the Giants, but even to realistic owners this was a poor passing effort. He saved his day with a rushing TD leading to a decent QB9 finish.

Without the rushing TD he would have finished around QB20 in a down week for QB scoring. The Falcons managed to limit Daniel Jones’s rushing so be aware of that, but I think he makes for a good start against a limited Falcons defense.

Matt Ryan vs Redskins

If you want an in-depth look at what’s going on with Ryan just check out my article on the ATL passing game. For this game I expect the Washington pass rush to have a pride game and fluster Ryan, causing a lot of sacks and dump off passes. Pitts should have a decent game if Smith ever decides to feature his first-round investment. 10 targets should be a minimum. Ryan is a potential sit for skill players.

Sam Darnold vs Cowboys

Just because the Cowboys are 31st against the pass this year doesn’t mean Darnold is automatically in for a big game. Dallas is second in the league with 2 interceptions per game, and tied for 6th in fumbles recovered per game. The 3-0 Panthers have yet to face a dominant defense (the Saints were without multiple defenders in their week 2 game) so it’s fair to say Darnold hasn’t really been tested yet.

Darnold is getting a lot of his points with his legs, a trend I expect to disappear when CMC gets back. It just doesn’t feel sustainable. He’s a sell high candidate for someone who might be getting worried about Hurts. Might be best to do it before this weekend as Dallas largely held Hurts in check before he got himself into a rhythm with his legs. Darnold can’t do that.

Daniel Jones vs New Orleans

Jones has the third most rushing yards by a QB behind only Jackson and Hurts. We all talk about how a safe rushing floor is what we want in fantasy. Why is Jones only 34% rostered when he has the most passing yards out of the 3 and only 1 fewer passing TD than Lamar?

Well, probably because anyone playing in a superflex or 2qb league has been burned by Jones at least once in the past three years. And he’s a turnover machine right? Not so far. 1 lost fumble and zero interceptions through three weeks. Well he’s going in the wrong direction right? Wrong again: completion percentage is improving, interception % is going down, yards/completion are up, air yards per completion are up. And looking back to that amazing chart from JJ above, who has the 4th highest completion percentage on deep passes, after Herbert, Murray, and Brady? Daniel Jones.

So what the hell? He played Denver in week 1. Granted Denver hasn’t played anyone, but every QB who has played Denver has sucked. He had a 68-yard TD called back on a penalty in week 2 against Washington, had a deep TD bounce off Slayton’s hands, and even so he finished as QB4 in fantasy. Last week Atlanta limited his rushing, and he lost his top two receivers in game.

Now, is New Orleans at full strength the right defense for a breakout game after a disappointing showing against the Falcons? No. But if you are sitting on Ben Roethlisberger, Zach Wilson, or even Justin Fields and he’s sitting there on the wire, what exactly do you need to see?

Jimmy Garoppolo vs Seahawks

The question here just continues to be when. When does Jimmy get the hook? He almost led his team to a win over the Niners and a perfect 3-0 record. He’s playing well enough to where no one should really consider benching him, not even for a potential rookie phenom.

But his chart shows one thing pretty clearly: he’s not going to lose the game for his team, but he limits their offense. No completions over 15 yards. Two attempts over 20, one incomplete, one intercepted. Plus a fumble lost on a backwards pass he never should have made.

Jimmy has not played badly enough to lose the job. And he should perform well against a Seahawks that is allowing a 71% completion rate and has three sacks this year. So the answer to when Jimmy loses his job to Lance is not this week. He’s a decent QB2 start.

Mac Jones vs Patriots

This is the game I have had circled on the calendar for Mac’s breakout game all year. While New England has the 10th highest percentage of passing plays, they are 26th in yards per pass attempt. Whether McDaniels is calling a conservative game plan, or Mac is going away from deep reads, I don’t think either will be an option this week.

From this chart, it doesn’t look like Mac is afraid to throw it deep, but he isn’t connecting for whatever reason. I count 7 total attempts beyond the 30. If he connects on just one of those he goes for over 300 in this game. Also, I just watched each of his interceptions. The first one was absolutely his fault. The second should have been a catch by Jonnu Smith. The third came at the end of the game when the outcome wasn’t in doubt and they were just tossing it into the end zone. So this line could have easily looked like 300-1-2 instead.

The Bucs are first in the NFL in sacks and I think they absolutely pin their ears back and go after Jones. His time in the pocket is 2.4 secs, just .1 second longer than Brady, and he’s 19th in the NFL in times being sacked at 6.

In other words, I still think this could be his coming out party. The Pats finally took the training wheels off against the Saints and while the results weren’t great, they were not disastrous either. I’d fire up Mac as a QB2 with confidence this week and grab him off the WW for lesser options if available.

Ben Roethlisberger vs Packers

Matt LeFleur doesn’t strike me as stupid, which means he is seeing the same things on film the rest of the fantasy community is seeing: Ben is completely cooked and shouldn’t finish the season. In case you need video evidence there is plenty on twitter:

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I think this is my favorite video of Ben Roethlisberger ever. It isn’t just the stumble and fall after the throw, it is the faceplant. He didn’t even attempt to save himself https://t.co/Am1GDSE5sa

— Voltaire (@VolareVols) September 27, 2021

Despite the obvious decline, Ben is third in the league in pass attempts and delivered a solid fantasy day on Sunday. I expect LaFleur to put everyone up at the line and try and take away the short and intermediate passes and dare Ben to throw deep. And I expect the Steelers offense to totally unravel when he does. If you can turn Ben into an asset with potential based on his week 3 numbers do so immediately. The wheels are about to fall off the bus.

Teddy Bridgewater vs Ravens

The Broncos have absolutely feasted on three of the worst teams in the NFL. Bridge didn’t have to do much against the Jets to win, which makes him a potential buy from an owner not paying that much attention. 235-0 is a terrible fantasy day so now would be the time to offer. You can remind them that Teddy has always been average and you don’t have to share that his air yards per completed pass and attempt are way up this year.

I expect a much more inspired performance against the Ravens and attempts back in the mid-thirties which could push him back above 300. His completion percentage has been mid-70s and he has three games with ratings north of 100. Denver is 22nd in pass attempts after tilts against inferior teams. Their schedule gets considerably tougher from here.

Baltimore remains a bottom-three pass defense so he’s a solid start this week and likely this is the last opportunity to buy low.

Ryan Tannehill vs Jets

Tannehill had a very Burrow-eqsue game last week, throwing for 3 touchdowns on only 197 yards and also coughing up 2 picks. He did have a great rushing day, rushing 5-56. AJ Brown is out for this game and Julio could be as well, but thus far Tannehill has been able to generate yards without much help from Brown. Losing both starting wide receivers would be bad for him, Derrick Henry, and the entire offense. I’m not liking his week 3 chart or his prospects against a Jets team that seems completely lost.

It would be hard to trade Tannehill to anyone who pays attention to injury reports but I wouldn’t be shy in throwing out offers on name recognition for guys like Daniel Jones and Bridgewater. Both Julio and Brown have extensive injury histories and both are already hurt, and the cupboard is bare after them at receiver. Plus all Tannehill’s measurables are down from last year: completion %, TD %, adjusted yards per attempt, and QB rating.

Baker Mayfield vs Vikings

Baker isn’t so much a question as he is a tease. This team is just not built around the pass and never has been. If he gets you yards he doesn’t get you a touchdown. If he gets a TD he doesn’t get yards. Minnesota isn’t particularly good at anything defensively. So don’t expect anything more than a low-end QB2 performance against them as the Browns once again lean on their league-best rushing attack.

Low-volume, low touchdowns, low ability. Not what you want for fantasy.

Jameis Winston vs Giants:

Speaking of teases, Sean Payton is keeping the Saints to a league-low 21.3 passing attempts per game. That’s 4 fewer than Cincinnati. Given Jameis’s horrible showing against the Panthers and his TD prayer last week, I think this is a case of trust. We know Payton likes to have a dynamic passing offense. Looks like he doesn’t think he has the personnel for it.

I will eat some crow here. I hyped Winston all offseason. The pieces all appeared to be there for a monster season that you could get for a minimal 10th round investment, even in 2QB and Superflex leagues. This is what happens when you try and outsmart the system – you make yourself believe things that could be there, but certainly aren’t, at least not yet. And sometimes those things never materialize.

Even on few attempts, Winston has proved wildly inaccurate the past two weeks. His longer TD to Callaway should have been an interception, but as Winston told Payton, God intervened. I can’t imagine this response inspired more trust from Payton.

With Burrow, you can start him knowing that even on low volume you get quality. Winston is a horrible combo of low-quantity and low-quality. Just watch the practice reports for Taysom Hill appearances with the first team at this point. I would sit Winston for good options at other positions like Zack Moss.

Abandon All Hope Ye Who Start These Guys

The order here is meaningless as starting these guys is fantasy suicide.

Carson Wentz vs Dolphins: Even with two good ankles he’s not good. With two bad ankles I’d rather start almost anyone.

Jacoby Brissett vs Colts: Just not a good QB.

Zach Wilson vs Titans: Capable of the occasional good throw but clearly not NFL ready. They really should have traded for Foles…not too late.

Davis Mills vs Buffalo: Looked better than expected last week but not an NFL QB yet.

Jared Goff vs Bears: He will have decent weeks. This week won’t be one of them.

Dalton/Fields vs Lions: Dalton returned to a limited practice Wednesday and I believe Nagy when he says Dalton is his starter when healthy. I think Fields heads back to the bench and Dalton barely beats the Lions and unfortunately saves Nagy’s job.