UPDATE: Mike Williams is on the COVID list which bumps Herbert down.
Last week I predicted Mahomes would come roaring out of the bye and put up the type of performance we have all come to know, love, and expect from the unquestioned first QB off the board. Obviously I was pretty off. Mahomes finished with just 184 yards and no touchdowns, which put him behind names like Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton, and Taylor Heinicke.
However I feel pretty good about my #2 pick Brady (QB2, 368-4) and #3 pick Kyler Murray (QB1, 123-2, 59-2). Stafford, my QB4 finished as QB5 with 295-3, beaten out by Taysom HIll with 264-2, 101.
This is the last week before the playoffs begin, so getting things right this week is crucial. Let’s take a closer look at our QB Sit/Start decisions for Superflex leagues in week 14.
Obvious QB1 Starts
Dak Prescott vs WFT: WFT is #1 in fantasy points per game allowed to QBs on the year, and while they have improved to middle of the pack since week 8, I still have a feeling this is Dak’s week to finish as QB1. Cooper should be fully healthy and Gallup is back, and the running game just isn’t getting it done, at least as long as the Cowboys keep feeding Zeke.
Josh Allen vs the Bucs: After enduring the wind bowl, Josh gets sunny Tampa and their middle of the pack pass defense. I think an offensive explosion on both sides of the ball is called for after we watched 1950s football in the wind bowl.
Aaron Rodgers vs the Bears: This game is in Lambeau and Rodgers does just own the Bears. He’s 21-5 against the Bears, who are at the bottom of the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Rodgers is on a hot streak, cresting 300 yards and throwing 6 TDs in his last two starts. He makes a fantastic start this week.
Lamar Jackson vs the Browns: His last outing against the Browns wasn’t great (46.5 QBR due to 4 picks) but he righted the ship against Pittsburg and his rushing floor dictates he shouldn’t be much lower than this. Strong start this week.
Kyler Murray vs the Rams: While the Rams are not the defensive stalwart we once thought, they are a much tougher matchup than Chicago. I’d expect more passing from Murray as this game figures to be down to the wire. Maybe one rushing TD but certainly not two.
Tom Brady vs the Bills: The Bills are still one of the toughest defenses in the league and especially hard on quarterbacks. Maybe that had something to do with Mac Jones’s 3 pass attempts on Monday night. I think Brady will have a good game and is a mid-QB1 start this week, but nothing close to last week.
Mathew Stafford vs the Cardinals: Stafford will need several good streaks to match this ranking. Odell clearly is not adding much to this offense and I think Stafford and McVay have realized that force-feeding him targets is not really helping the team. I think another outing of 270-310 yards and 3 touchdowns seems right.
Taysom Hill vs the Jets: I probably have Hill too low again given that he’s going to be running all over the Jets, but his hand injury worries me for his passing output. Very strong start.
Patrick Mahomes vs the Raiders: Mahomes has simply put too much great play on tape to not call him an automatic QB1 start. However, very little of that tape will feature 2021. I feel like another explosion is inevitable, but fear it may not come in time for his owners banking on his greatness for a playoff berth. 230-2 seems about right, which will probably be good for QB10 as long as he sprinkles in a few runs.
Joe Burrow vs the 49ers: If not for a mind-boggling tipped ball interception from Chase, Burrow would have had another 50 yards and a TD added to his 300-1-2 line. One of these weeks it’s going to all pull together for Burrow, but I’m not sure it’s this week. I still think he’s a solid low-end QB1 and a fantastic QB2 if you’re lucky enough to have him and one of the guys above.
Justin Herbert vs the Giants: He’s riding high after a QB3 finish and faces the Giants who have no offense and very little defense. But he’s now most likely without his top two wideouts in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. He still has his tight ends and Ekeler and Jalen Guyton, but this hurts his prospects significantly.
Russell Wilson vs the Texans: Believe it or not the Texans are giving up the fourth fewest fantasy points to QBs since week 9. Not sure why this is, probably because they put up so little fight that most teams can just run out the clock starting in the third quarter. With Davis Mills back under center things should improve for the Texans a little, and Wilson is improving albeit slowly. If this is finally the week they feature Metcalf, he could end up much higher.
Solid QB2 Starts
Jimmy G vs the Bengals
The Bengals defense is floundering especially against the pass. And Jimmy has been playing better ball than you think lately. Always dealing with a changing cast of characters, Jimmy focused on his best receiver in Kittle and put up 299-2-2.
Above average play
I like Jimmy as a strong QB2 this week and based on the day Herbert had, I don’t think the Bengals constitute a huge upgrade in terms of defensive opponent.
Kirk Cousins vs the Steelers
Cousins is about as all over the place, literally. He lined up behind a guard against the 49ers.
Still, in five of his 12 games he has gone for over 300 yards passing, and has four games with 3 TDs. You can’t count him out as a high-end QB2, even on a Thursday night game. The Steelers defense is nothing special, so start with confidence as long as you don’t have two of the QBs listed above.
Derek Carr vs the Chiefs
Normally one would start any viable QB against Mahomes simply out of anticipation of a shoot-out, and Carr is good at those. However, Mahomes is not producing the offense he once did and the Chiefs are actually one of the better defenses in the league, ranking fifth against opposing QBs the since week 8. I don’t have the faith in Carr that I once did, but he’s still a solid QB2 start this week.
Taylor Heinicke vs the Cowboys
This kid needs a nickname, like Headband Johnny or Mr. Fantastic. For now I’m just going to go with Rudy. The kid has plus athleticism and always seems to play above his God-given ability, which is somewhere around the Case Keenum range. Anyway, as good as the Cowboys have been on defense, they actually rank 16th in fantasy points allowed to QBs, so there’s good reason for having Heinicke listed as a solid QB2 start.
Questionable QB2 Starts
Justin Fields vs the Packers
A) it’s the Packers. They just destroy the Bears. B) We don’t know to what degree he is healed from his rib injury. C) Allen Robinson has seemingly played his last down for the Bears and I can’t blame him. But one would hope, emphasis on hope, that faced with a matchup they are almost certain to lose, that Nagy completely takes the reins off and lets Fields use his legs and his cannon of an arm. Mooney can burn the Packers defense, and Kmet has come a long way this season. Fields averaged 7.2 ypc against the Packers in October. Let’s hope he sees way more than the 6 carries he saw then. I’d start Fields against most options at the Superflex unless you have someone like Elijah Moore in that spot.
Ryan Tannehill vs the Jaguars
In his last matchup with the Jags he posted a 108 QBR but only 197 yards passing. Since then Tannehill has been all over the map, and he’s down to some pretty bad options surrounding him. Julio might be back this week, might not (they did activate him off IR). I wouldn’t trust Tannehill for more than about 210-1-2 and if that is good enough to start for your team start away. If you need more I would look at other options.
Teddy Bridgewater vs the Saints
Is there a player more boring than Teddy? I don’t think so. You’re practically guaranteed something between 200-250 yards and maybe a score. He plays Detroit who should be good for some easy points but they may have a fire lit under them after their first win. Not a great start but likely better than most flex options at other positions.
Zach Wilson vs the Saints
The burgeoning connection with Elijah Moore is great news for Wilson and his owners. He’s still, at best, a barely startable QB, BUT the Saints are ranked dead last over the past five weeks in fpa to QBs. So he’s a hold your nose start this week.
At this point in the season you should either be planning for gaps in your playoff weeks with the waiver wire. If you are counting on someone off the wire to get you into the playoffs, then your stint in the playoffs if you do make it is likely to be short-lived.
However given the bloodbath at running back we saw in week 12, probably a lot of rosters that are locked into the playoffs are scrambling to cover.
In the battle of the backups, Mattison outperformed Jamaal Williams with 22 carries for 91 yards and a score, with an extra 34 yards through the air. Williams played well with 17 for 71 but only one catch for 9 yards. Chuba Hubbard was on bye.
Boston Scott did absolutely nothing for the Eagles, and we don’t really know why. Sanders reinjured himself so Scott may be worth holding onto through the Eagles week 14 bye, but there isn’t much evidence to suggest that he is.
Let’s take a look at our waiver wire pickups for week 14 and see who can help us in the playoffs.
Waiver Wire Quarterbacks for Week 14
Honestly I can’t really recommend adding anyone from this list, but for the truly desperate, here are some reasons for optimism.
Zach Wilson, 6% rostered
His rapport is established with Elijah Moore who saw 30+% of his teams targets. Wilson did better as a result, and he gets the Jags week 16 of the playoffs. Other than that he is borderline unusable, playing the Saints this week and then getting Miami week 15, and Tampa Bay week 17. Tampa Bay is no longer a plus matchup for QBs.
Jared Goff, 6% rostered
Goff gets Denver this week, then Arizona week 15, Atlanta week 16, and Seattle week 17. Two good matchups on paper for the playoffs, and he finally discovered he has a talented rookie to throw to. Tough to trust under the best of circumstances.
Drops: Baker, Lawrence
Waiver Wire Running Backs for Week 14
Do not add Travis Homer based on points. His TD was a 78-yarder that came on a fake punt. Will not happen again.
Kenneth Gainwell, 12% rostered
Is Gainwell to backup to own in Philly? He was week 13 when he delivered 12-54-1 rushing line plus 5 catches for 33 yards. Will he be in week 15 when the Eagles come back from their bye? Impossible to say. Gainwell does get WFT, NYG, WFT for the playoff weeks so not bad in terms of potential opponents.
Drop: Boston Scott
Waiver Wire Wide Receivers for Week 14
Well at least we get a slightly more promising crop at the wide receiver position, but few of these guys are likely to repeat their performances.
Amon Ra St. Brown, 6% rostered
The rookie finally exploded when it was way too late to make a difference in Detroit’s season, but he did help them get their first and likely only win this season with 10 catches of 12 targets for 86 yards and a score. The Lions have no reason not to feature him and see what they have before the 2022 draft. He gets Airzona week 15, then Atlanta and Seattle, so a decent playoff schedule.
KJ Osborn, 4% rostered
With Adam Thielen injured and likely to miss the Thursday night matchup with the Steelers, its likely that Osborn sees more attention in week 14, but his playoff schedule is not great with the Bears, Rams, and Packers on tap.
Laquon Treadwell, 0% rostered
Despite the absolute rout last week, Treadwell managed 62 yards on 4 catches for the Jags. He gets Tennessee this week before a playoff schedule of the Texans, Jets, and Patriots. He could prove useful as he appears to be Jacksonville’s WR1 for some reason.
Drops: Shenault, Raymond, Bryan Edwards
Waiver Wire Tight Ends for Week 14
Tyler Conklin, 30% rostered
Conklin will also receive additional attention with Thielen out, and caught 7 of 9 targets this past week for 56 yards. His playoff schedule is not that favorable, same as Osborn (obviously) so think of him as a one-week filler.
Cole Kmet, 26% rostered
Kmet saw his targets drop from 11 in week 12 to 7 in week 13, but I think he still makes for a decent TE2 down the stretch. He gets the Packers this week, but has the Vikings, Seahawks, and Giants in the playoffs. He’s getting steady attention and there just aren’t that many targets for the Bears.
Drops: Fant, Uzomah
Streaming DST for Week 14 and Playoffs
Chargers, 26% rostered
The Chargers get the Giants this week making them an excellent streamer, but also get the Texans week 16 and the Broncos week 17. Just have other plans for week 15 when they play the chiefs.
Steelers, 46% rostered
Do we trust the Steelers after holding the Ravens to 19 points? I’m not even sure if they can be trusted this week against the Vikings, who did manage to crack 30 even in a loss to Detroit. The main reason I like them is for their week 17 matchup against Cleveland, as Baker Mayfield should be some kind of cyborg by then.
