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Superflex QB Sit/Start Week 7

Welcome to the Byepocalypse. Allen, Prescott, Herbert, Cousins, and Lawrence are unavailable. Also Big Ben but who cares. The Superflex QB Sit/Start Week 7 is here to help you navigate and win without blowing up your squad.

Thoughts on the QB Landscape

We are a third of the way through the regular season. Week 6 saw some notable changes in the QB landscape. QB2 hopefuls Taylor Heinicke and Daniels Jones fell extremely flat, and Tua came roaring back from his IR stint with a great game for owners that hung with him or scooped him off the WW. Sam Darnold continued his slide.

In his first full-game as a starter, Geno Smith looked mostly awful, but more importantly he exposed just how dependent Seattle’s game plan is on Wilson’s unbelievable efficiency and accuracy. Carrol stayed conservative, running Alex Collins into the dirt late in the game and avoiding throws downfield.

Looking forward into week 7 and beyond, there is a really good chance that we see a changing of the guard back to Ryan Fitzpatrick in Washington. Seattle has been talking with Cam, and based on Patriots camp and preseason, it’s hard to see how he wouldn’t provide at least a modest upgrade over Geno Smith after he got at least a week to learn the playbook. It’s worth asking if Russel Wilson will come back and play at all this year. Right now he’s slated to be out until about week 11 or 12, at which point it’s hard to see Seattle in realistic competition for a wild-card spot in the NFC. His well publicized desire to be traded in the offseason and his obvious disgust with Carroll’s uber-conservative play calling are factors to consider.

Obvious QB1 Starts for Superflex Week 7

Patrick Mahomes vs the Titans: This is one of those games where Mahomes and Henry could both set career highs. The Titans passing game came to life in the second half Monday night, meaning there will be no reason to let off the gas, especially with KC’s terrible defense. Top start of the week.

Lamar Jackson vs the Bengals: I expect this game to go down to the last seconds, and it’s probably the best matchup of the week. Expect Lamar’s passing numbers to go back up into the 300s and at least two scores passing and one rushing.

Tom Brady vs the Bears: I’m a big fan of the Bears defense, but I think mostly they will just piss Tom off. There’s no way their secondary can account for all the weapons Tom has, and OJ Howard did enough last week to keep linebackers and safeties busy.

Matt Stafford vs the Lions: McVay has shown two things that Stafford’s fantasy owners love: a willingness to keep running up the score against inferior opponents, and a willingness to pass within the 10-yard line. If living well is the best revenge, this should be one hell of a revenge game for Stafford.

Aaron Rodgers vs WFT: Rodgers has not been as explosive as some of us originally thought in what should be The Last Dance in Green Bay. Maybe he’s saving it for the revenge game next year. However few teams elicit great QB performances like the WFT, so expect something more like his performance against Cincy than his game against the Bears.

Joe Burrow vs the Ravens: Yeah, I’m putting Burrow above Murray this week. Despite a negative game script last week against the Lions and letting Brandon Allen throw the last TD, Burrow finished as QB8 with only 29 attempts. I don’t think he’ll have that luxury against the Ravens, and we should see something closer to 35-40 which should push him above 350 passing and a few scores.

Kyler Murray vs the Texans: Kyler’s best fantasy finish among QBs in standard PPR the last three weeks? 6th. His other finishes were 9th and 22nd. I don’t think the Texans present enough of a challenge to bring out his best game.

Derek Carr vs the Eagles: Carr bounced back sans-Gruden with a solid line and gets a much softer defense than he’s faced in his last 2 (Bears and Broncos). His connection with Ruggs is building which adds a totally new dimension to his offense, and I think 350 and 3 is within his range of outcomes, but the floor is probably more like 280-1-1.

QB1/QB2 Superflex Starts with Caution

These guys have shown enough promise that they don’t warrant benching. It’s a short list this week as there are more question marks at QB than I remember anytime in the league recently. We are seeing a changing of the guard at the position, with all five (six?) rookies showing promise but also throwing as many head-scratchers as wow plays.

Jameis Winston vs the Seahawks: Something changed in week 5 with the Saints. They started actually passing the ball. This was the main thing holding Winston back (apart from being wildly inaccurate and making extremely questionable decisions with the ball that just happened to keep working out). Let’s take a look at the result of those sky-high 30 pass attempts in week 5:

Week 5: 50% completion and 4 TDs. Soooo Jameis

The most important stat is the W in the Saints column. There is a chance that they simply lean on the run against an extremely beatable Seahawks team. The Seahawks without Wilson are probably what the Titans would be without Derrick Henry — non-functional. BUT there is also a chance that they continue to try and expand Winston’s role. He’s not a great QB1 start, but given the state of QB he’s better than most.

Jalen Hurts vs the Raiders: I love this kid. Absolutely love his story, his heart, his leadership. But anyone who watched the Thursday night game saw a liability under center for much of the game. He still finished as QB5 in standard ppr, but fantasy doesn’t matter to coaches, GMs, or fans, who are already calling for Flacco. Now, the fans are stupid. Flacco is not the answer. Minshew? Maybe. But putting an aging statue back there is not going to help this team. But they are right that Hurts was not good.

You don’t need advanced passing stats for this one. One glance at this chart and you get how bad it was. 44 yards rushing and two TDs kept fantasy managers happy, but the sell-high window might have passed unless you can find a manager who is only looking at the fantasy points and not the big picture. And I don’t think he’s going to do much better this week, at least not through the air. The Raiders picked off Teddy three times, and are likely to dare Hurts to pass. He’s a shaky start at best and will need to get it done with his legs.

Teddy Bridgewater vs the Browns: Teddy is becoming the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL. How many QB1 performances does he need before being considered a QB1. He threw three picks against the Raiders but also threw 3 scores and over 300. That’s a great fantasy day. The only reason he is this low is he is playing with a foot injury against Myles Garrett, the only Browns starter left standing. Could be a negative game script as well. Still, better than most of the folks below. 280-2 with no ints.

Shaky QB2 Starts

Tua Tagovailoa vs the Falcons: Jesus this kid can not catch a break in fantasy or real life. Tua had a great first game back from injury. His reward? Rumors that he’s going to be traded so Miami can overspend on a guy that may not even play this year or next, or perhaps ever again. Probably just a team-friendly beat writer stirring the pot but still. He completed 70% of his passes for 329 and 2 touchdowns. In what universe is that a bad enough performance to immediately trade him?

Week 6: Deep ball was off but by no means a bad performance

Tua I think will silence critics this week. Start with confidence as a high-end QB2 or low-end QB1 and enjoy the 300+ yards and 2 scores once again.

Matt Ryan vs the Dolphins: Let’s just get him in lineups this week. The deep ball is never coming back for Ryan, that part of his game is gone and if you want proof here it is. But he can get it done still with short and intermediate passes to Pitts and Patterson. The Dolphins are a team on the ropes and I don’t think they will put up much resistance. I think Ryan is a solid play this week. I’d predict 280-3-1 on with his longest completion being 18 yards.

Ryan Tannehill vs the Chiefs: Tannehill finally started to break out in the second half against the Bills, hitting multiple deep throws to Brown. He remains a shaky start for multiple reasons, mostly that he is only beginning to find success, has turned in multiple shaky performances, and his offense is basically run by King Henry. He saved his fantasy day with a TD rush, but the rushing upside has not been there this season, as he has only 8 carries in his last three games. Even against a terrible Chiefs defense he’s a shaky QB2 start. I would not start him over guys like Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, or Tua.

Jimmy G vs the Colts: Jimmy G is not an exciting option, but during the Byepocalypse he makes for a great QB2 start. At least he has the motivation of trying to salvage his starting job and gets to play against a beatable Colts secondary (allowing 71% completion percentage). You could do a lot worse.

Mac Jones vs the Jets: I wrote in my waiver wire week 7 column that Jones is a very unexciting prospect this week, as last time he faced the Jets he went for under 200 yards. But Wilson and Jones have both matured somewhat as passers since then, well, Wilson has managed a decent game or two that wasn’t a total embarrassment, and we could see more offensive output. Jones makes for a very risky start as the deep balls are still too few and far between.

Jared Goff: With six teams on bye, Goff should be in your starting lineup in a Superflex or 2QB league simply because narrative. If he’s going to play above his ability this year, big IF, it should be this week. Worth a shot, but don’t start him over anyone with actual talent and a decent team. Narrative doesn’t mean everything. 220-2-1 is likely.

Daniel Jones vs the Panthers: The thing that made Daniel Jones intriguing earlier in the season was his rushing ability. After getting concussed two weeks ago he rushed 3 times for 4 yards last week. He also lost his only interesting weapon in Toney for at least a week. Golladay is still injured and hasn’t done much when healthy. Avoid this dumpster-fire matchup of QBs if you can.

Case Keenum vs the Broncos: Ok, hear me out. Number 1, the Broncos are just not all that good. Over the last three games they are dead last in the league in yards per completion at a whopping 16.1! I don’t care who you are playing that is terrible. They are 8th in the league in completion percentage allowed over the same span, so clearly they are beatable deep. Keenum gets Landry back for this game and Peoples-Jones is playing great ball as well.

Carson Wentz vs 49ers: I refuse to waste time or pixels on this guy. Start if 220-1 is better than your other flex options.

Justin Fields vs the Bucs: This is a positive game script for Fields. The Bears, down to their third string running back, will be forced to allow Fields to show his true potential and he will finally have his breakout game. Sound familiar? That’s because that was the narrative last week, when he faced the exact same situation. The results?

Fields kept throwing to absolutely no one, unless you count Packers defenders. He should have had another interception but it was called back for reasons I protest even as a Bears fan. Fields is just a lot less ready than most of us thought. He has the arm, but the game is too fast for him and he’s making really poor decisions. Not a good start, find a more steady veteran to get you through the bye.

Respect Yourself, You Can Do Better

Sam Darnold vs the Giants: It’s the perennial disappointment bowl! Sam Darnold vs Daniel Jones, who will suck worse? At this point it’s really hard to say, I’m just really glad I own zero shares of these guys. Either one could bust out of their funk and lay down a great game, but I don’t think it’s Darnold this week. He hasn’t had a QBR north of 60 in two weeks and his Darnold spiral will continue. See what I did there? I think you did. Sit with confidence.

Taylor Heinicke vs Green Bay: Heinicke, we hardly knew ye. Hello Ryan Fitzpatrick after this upcoming disaster.

Zach Wilson vs the Patriots: Bill Belichik hates you and wants you to fail. Therefore, you will.

Geno Smith vs New Orleans: It ain’t happening, especially against the Saints. Cam Newton signs next week. Maybe at halftime.

Davis Mills vs Arizona: Honestly I’d rather just make giraffe jokes. I think his neck is taller than Kyler Murray.

Sit/Start Week Decisions Week 6

Hopefully you didn’t start Kenneth Gainwell, Mike Evans, or Chris Godwin last night but if you did, hopefully you can get some help correcting those decisions here.

The Falcons, Saints, Jets, and Niners are on bye this week making tight end just that much thinner. But it does remove four potential sabotage starts at QB. By the way, since this is a site dedicated to superflex leagues I do a QB deep dive every week. You can find that here.

Running Back Sit/Start Week 6

There isn’t a ton of value in telling you to start Derek Henry, Dalvin Cook or CMC if they play. I’ll try and focus on riskier plays most players would be straddling the fence on.

Start These Guys

Zack Moss vs the Titans: Still splitting time with Singletary but doing a lot more with his touches. The Titans Defense is terrible all around and I expect the Bills to have a field day. They will likely jump out to a big lead early.

Alex Collins vs the Steelers: Carson’s neck issue is not going away and he’s not practicing, so Collins should get about 16 carries and turn that into about 75 yards a score.

Kareem Hunt vs the Cardinals: The Cards rank 31st in allowed yards per carry and Chubb hasn’t practice all week. Great start this week and a really solid DFS play ($6200 on DK).

Joe Mixon vs the Lions: Mixon is back at practice Friday after a rest day on Thursday, fire him up for what should be a positive game script.

DeAndre Swift vs the Bengals: Swift will benefit from an increase in targets once the Lions fall behind. I think 15-65 rushing and 9-78-1 receiving is achievable.

Sit These Guys

Josh Jacobs vs the Broncos: Averaging career lows in yards per attempt, I expect Jacobs to flounder against Denver’s 5th-ranked rushing defense.

Tony Pollard vs the Patriots: Zeke has been limited all week, but he’s going to play and the Pats are better against the run than people think. Sit Pollard this week.

Chase Edmonds/James Conner vs the Browns: The Browns are third in the league in yards per attempt allowed and give up the 7th fewest points to opposing running backs. Avoid like the plague.

Myles Gaskin vs the Jaguars: Tua is likely to start and when Tua was starting Myles was doing practically nothing. All his value last week came from receptions, give it a week to see how things shake out with Tua under center.

Wide Receiver Sit/Start Week 6

Start These Guys

Stefon Diggs vs the Titans: Monday night game, terrible pass defense, and it’s just waiting to happen for Diggs. I wrongly predicted a breakout game last week, but this is the week.

Robert Woods vs the Giants: Woods finally broke out last week and turned into Stafford’s security blanket. I think that will continue, but it might not come at Kupp’s expense.

Kadarius Toney vs the Rams: The Rams defense has not looked good, and I think Toney will tear them apart on underneath routes. Daniel Jones is going to play, which has to improve his outlook a little from Mike Glennon, though he seems QB proof.

Chase Claypool vs the Seahawks: The Hawks are giving up the second-most points to wide receivers in the league. Ben’s arm may be shot but he has enough juice to get Claypool involved, especially now that Juju is on the shelf for the year.

Jarvis Landry vs the Cardinals*: If activated by 4 pm Saturday, Landry is in a great spot against the leaky Cardinals. I just don’t get the impression OBJ gives a crap anymore, so that leaves a vacuum.

Sit These Guys

Courtland Sutton vs the Raiders: I keep wanting the Raiders to be bad at things and they keep surprising me. Stupid data. The Raiders are third in the league in passing yards allowed and give up the 4th fewest points to wide receivers. Go figure.

Tee Higgins vs the Lions: The Bengals won’t need him in this one, 55 scoreless yards.

Micheal Pittman vs the Texans: In another surprise, the Texans are currently giving up the third fewest points to wide receivers. Wentz doesn’t have another 400-yard game in him all season and Pittman’s TD was a terrible throw that required him grabbing the throw over a defender’s helmet.

Adam Thielen vs the Panthers: Panthers are good against the pass, and will be chasing Cousins around the pocket all day. Thielen will only be good for about 60 scoreless yards.

Tight End Sit/Start Week 6

Start These Guys

Mark Andrews vs the Chargers: As good as the Chargers have been at shutting down opposing QBs, somehow they are allowing the most fantasy points to tight ends. Start Mandrews with confidence, just don’t expect the league-destroying numbers he put up last week.

Mo Allie Cox vs the Texans: Cox is still seeing fewer snaps than Doyle for some reason, but he caught 3-4 targets for 50 yards, and the Texans are giving up the second-most points to tight ends.

Noah Fant vs the Raiders: Finally, proof that the Raiders actually suck: they give up the fifth-most points to tight ends, and Fant is seeing a 97% snap share. Unfortunately he isn’t getting targets, but given that the Raiders are good at taking away wide receivers, he’s a good bet to see increased targets and receptions.

Dawson Knox vs the Titans: The Titans do very few things well on defense, or offense for that matter…let’s face it it’s basically Derrick Henry and nothing else. But they are allowing the 5th fewest points to tight ends this year. Problem with that nugget is they have played the Cardinals, Seahawks, Colts, Jets, and Jaguars.

Sit These Guys

TJ Hockenson vs the Bengals: The Bengals are giving up the 7th fewest points to tight ends, and Hockenson is injured and hasn’t had a good day since week 2. This won’t be the week to get back on track.

David Njoku vs the Cardinals: Don’t chase the points. The Cardinals are tough on tight ends, allowing the second-fewest points to the position, which isn’t totally meaningless since that includes Tyler Higbee, and, well, little else. Does Ross Dwelly count? Anyway, chasing that performance is the road to hell in fantasy. Lighting won’t strike twice.

Streaming DSTs for Week 6

Bengals vs Lions: Worked for Minnesota last week, could work again.

Bears vs Packers: I feel insane writing this, especially as a lifelong Bears fan who has watched game after game of the Packers just brutalizing the Bears, especially with Rodgers at the helm. But I have a weird feeling that things change this week. I don’t know why, but I think the Bears pull together a great performance, harass Rodgers, and double the shit out of Adams.

Superflex QB Deep Dive Week 6

Teams on Bye: Saints, Jets, Falcons, Niners

Lamar Jackson attained God status Monday night in fantasy circles. Justin Herbert continues to render the best QB of the 2019 class a non-debate. Taylor Heinicke fell back to earth and Daniel Jones left hopeful owners holding the bag.

This Superflex QB Deep Dive Week 6 looks at QB starts for superflex and 2QB leagues, focusing on start decisions for the second QB or flex slot.

Automatic QB1 Starts

It’s not that guys on this list don’t have some questions and there isn’t some variance in performance, they are guys that I simply can’t see benching under any circumstance in superflex leagues.

Lamar Jackson vs the Chargers: The Chargers have been more successful than any other team at shutting down opposing QBs, but there is no way they stop the tear Lamar is on. What he did Monday night was truly special and will go down as one of the greatest single-game QB performances of all time. To all who drafted him congrats, enjoy the ride.

Josh Allen vs the Titans: Thus far the Titans have made Zach Wilson look competent and Trevor Lawrence look like a star. Just imagine what Josh Allen will do to them.

Justin Herbert vs the Ravens: Speaking of Monday night, one of the funniest things I heard was an announcer describing the Ravens defense as “league-leading.” I guess he just forgot it’s not 2000.

Kyler Murray vs the Browns: The Browns pass rush is impressive with Myles Garrett tearing through the league since his week 3 pantsing of the Bears, but Kyler has enough quicks and accuracy to escape and do plenty of damage downfield. Be aware that Murray is questionable with an issue with his throwing shoulder, conjuring bad memories of a 2020 campaign derailed.

Patrick Mahomes vs WFT: As bad as the Chiefs have been thus far Mahomes is still really good. Not the unquestioned QB1 anymore with Lamar and Kyler battling for that top spot, but WFT presents a get right opportunity for his team and his fantasy owners.

Tom Brady vs the Eagles: Thursday night has not been the fantasy curse it used to be. Tom should go for at least 325 and 3 against the Eagles.

Jalen Hurts vs the Bucs: Hurts is legit good, at least for fantasy, and you can’t really put the Eagles losses exclusively on him. The Bucs are giving up the 6th most fantasy points to QBs.

Mathew Stafford vs the Giants: Even when Stafford plays badly he ends up producing. He was inaccurate again week 5 and still managed 365 yards and a score against the Seahawks. The Giants give up the ninth most fantasy points to QBs.

Dak Prescott vs the Patriots: Dak just doesn’t need to pass that much to win. The Patriots defense is beatable on the ground as Fournette proved and I expect the Cowboys to lean on the run game, but Dak should still throw a few TDs and get around 280 yards.

Aaron Rodgers vs the Bears: This game is in Soldier Field and the Rodgers magic has not been what I thought it would be all season. The Packers have declining points in their past four games and Rodgers has only game with over 300 yards (which was last week).

Questionable QB Starts

Joe Burrow vs the Lions

The question is not, and really never has been Joe Burrow’s ability. Despite an absolutely perplexing interception against the Packers, Burrow is playing excellent football. The only reason I consider him a questionable start this game is that he was forced to throw more against Jacksonville and Green Bay. The way Detroit is playing I am not sure that will be the case, so this comes down to Mixon’s health. If Mixon gets a full vote of confidence for a regular snap share for this game, Burrow becomes a more questionable start. If Mixon is not fully healthy, we can expect the attempts to stay north of 30 and a good game.

Baker Mayfield vs the Cardinals

Baker had his best game of the season in absolute offensive explosion against the Chargers. The Cardinals are in the bottom third in the league in fantasy points allowed to QBs and that makes it unlikely that Mayfield repeats his 300+ yard performance. Baker is just not a plus prospect at the position and is thoroughly average at the position. I think he makes for a decent QB2 start, but don’t expect anything like last week which is an anomoly for him.

Trevor Lawrence vs the Dolphins (UK)

I am really not sure what the NFL is trying to do by shipping its worst teams to the UK…is this supposed to help the brand? Anyway, Trevor predictably broke out against the Titans and his buy low window might be over, but it’s still worth a shot to try and nab him for an underperforming veteran.

What’s missing from this chart is his rushing performance (7-28-1) which made this a really solid fantasy day. His arrow is pointing up and Urban Meyer must be fired if he doesn’t get this win, and really should have been fired this week. I don’t know what else Khan needs to see to admit a mistake and move on. The team has. Solid start against the Dolphins and still a buy-low.

Kirk Cousins vs the Panthers

The bloom has come off the rose. Since his scorching start to the season, Cousins has turned in below average performances in his past two starts, only notching a single TD in each and staying below 300 yards in each contest. He has zero rushing upside giving him a very shaky floor. Carolina is averaging 3.2 sacks per game through five, and I don’t think that his old legs can evade their pass rush. The Panthers have softened a bit but also are only allowing a 58% completion rate this season and 63% in their last three. Sit Cousins this week for higher upside options at QB like Fields and for emerging skill position flexes like Kadarius Toney and Devonta Booker.

Sam Darnold vs the Vikings

Another QB who started hot but is now seeing his value plummet is Sam Darnold. He didn’t just have a down game against the Eagles—he had a total meltdown. 177 yards, 1 touch, 3 ints. His rushing floor disappeared as well (2-10 and no scores).

Minnesota is stiffening against QBs lately (59% completion rate in their last 3). I would sit Darnold for higher upside options like Trevor, Heinicke, and Fields or a high-upside skill player.

Daniel Jones vs the Rams

If Daniel Jones plays, which is looking more likely after he was seen tossing the ball around at practice, I think he makes for a really solid start and could be a good buy low. Beware that he was not performing well AT ALL vs the Cowboys before he went out, but the Cowboys are playing lights out on defense under Dan Quinn and that was an easy call. The Rams defense is a shell of its former self, and I think they would give up a lot of points to Jones if he plays. Solid start if healthy.

Carson Wentz vs the Texans

Wentz had one hell of a night Monday night. After turning in average performances all season, he broke out for 400+ yards and two TDs in what looked like it was going to be a route of the Ravens. Then Lamar put the entire franchise on his back and willed his team to a victory. One can’t discount this performance for Wentz completely, but expecting it to become the norm would be a mistake.

The long TD was more of a great play by Pittman than Wentz, as Pittman had to come back to the ball and catch the ball over a defenders helmet. The Texans are not as bad against the pass as some might expect, ranking 14th in fantasy points allowed to QBs. Expect something more along the lines of 250 yards and 1-2 TDs, not anything close to Monday night. If that’s better than your other options, start away.

Mac Jones vs the Cowboys

Mac Jones had a down week against the Texans as the Patriots tried to achieve more balance in run vs pass. He tied his career-low in pass attempts with 30, and the Patriots found themselves down early against the Texans and needing a comeback to win. The balance was pure 50/50 if you count Mac’s run for 3 yards. Not only did the formula not work, not only did Harris once again fumble near the goal line almost costing them a win as in week 1 against the Dolphins, but there’s very little chance New England’s defense is stout enough allow a run-friendly game script. Thus I think we see Mac with around 40 attempts, which has provided good enough numbers for a QB2 start thus far. I expect at least 1 pick, possibly 2, but also around 275 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Derek Carr vs the Broncos

Poor Derek Carr. Say whatever you want about Gruden, he was good for Derek Carr’s career and was an unabashed supporter. I can’t imagine losing Gruden is a good thing for Carr or the team in general. He fell victim to a very good Bears defense that currently ranks 1st in sacks per game, holding him to just 206 yards and 1 interception and no scores and sacking him 3 times. The Broncos are 1st in completion percentage allowed at 56% on the season. Last game’s chart is not pretty:

All the throws bunched around the LOS show that the Bears were successful in disrupting Carr’s game with pressure. The Broncos can likely achieve coverage sacks with Surtain and Fuller while doubling Waller. Given all the turbulence I see a down night for Carr, sit for better options.

Taylor Heinicke vs the Chiefs

The Chiefs are a get-right matchup (#1 in fantasy points allowed to QBs) for Heinicke who is alternating good and bad weeks. If he can’t get it done against the Chiefs and throws up another stinker, the team will have to think about turning back to Ryan Fitzpatrick, even though he’s not exactly a paragon of stability himself. If you have Heinicke rostered and don’t have really great options he’s a must start in this opportunity. He must know the pressure is on, and one thing we have learned about Heinicke is that he leaves absolutely nothing on the field. Start.

Teddy Bridgewater vs the Raiders

The Raiders are actually pretty tough on opposing QBs, but in superflex leagues it’s hard to sit someone who just turned in 288-2-1. Bridge is a good bet for solid QB2 production with QB1 upside. He’s top 10 in intended air yards (9.2) and the Sutton connection is going to start hitting, possibly this weekend. He’s also a good buy-low with Jeudy coming off IR sooon.

Ryan Tannehill vs the Bills

Sooooo Tannehill is not looking good this season. He’s currently sandwiched between Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz in average fantasy points per game. And what’s worse, his points have declined for 3 straight weeks. His rating and completion percentage have been erratic, and he’s 22nd in EPA+CPOE composite. And now he gets the Bills, 1st against QBs. We are all hoping that this is AJ Brown’s breakout week, but wouldn’t that mean that it has to at least be a significant improvement for Tannehill? Against the #1 pass defense in the league? It’s hard to see, especially with their offense running completely through Henry and no one seemingly able to stop it. Sit if you have better options.

Justin Fields vs Packers

Over the last three games, the Bears are dead last in pass attempts per game. As in 19 attempts per game. Those games were the offensive black hole against Cleveland, the not nearly as close as the score looked game against the Lions, and the drubbing of the Raiders this past Sunday. Does anyone on earth think that the Bears can have a shred of hope against the Packers throwing 19 times and relying on Damien Williams and Herbert to win? Me neither. Just to put that number in perspective, the next closest attempts/game are the Saints with 26 over the same span. The Packers have the sixth most pass attempts against them in the past 4 weeks (excluding the anomaly against the Saints). So how did Fields look against the Raiders?

But consider that Fields has shown a good deep ball, Packers’ opposing QBs are averaging 38 attempts per game, he could be looking at his breakout week. And he is not rushing the ball, at all, right now. 4 yards against the Raiders. Expect attempts—passing and rushing—to skyrocket against the Packers.

Abandon All Hope, Ye Who Start These Guys

Jacoby Brisset: Big bag of nope on this one.

Davis Mills: I actually almost put him into the questionable start category but I need to see one more game like his last one.

Gentle Ben: A shell of his former self, might be time for the shelf. Eat some hay? I just may…

Jared Goff: Just not getting it done, 0-5, poor Lions fans.

Geno Smith: Yes, Geno looked great in relief of Wilson, but I refuse to believe you don’t have better starting options somewhere on your roster. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he outplayed Tannehill.

Sit/Start Week 5

If you are looking for advice on QBs please see our in-depth weekly column here. This is exclusively dedicated to the other skill position players.

Week 4 dispelled some myths and confirmed some trends. Myths dispelled were that the Bengals can only support one receiver, Barkley is washed up, and the Rams are a surefire bet for the Superbowl. Trends that held up are that Derrick Henry can literally carry a team by himself, Ryan’s deep ball is gone, and that Kyler Murray is going to keep spreading the ball around because it works.

Running Back Starts

Obviously start Henry, Cook against the Lions, and McCaffrey if he plays.

Darrel Henderson vs Seahawks

Henderson had a great game in a losing effort last week and should be able to feast in this game against the Seahawks who are allowing 4.6 ypc through four weeks. The Rams desperately need to get back on track after a disastrous combo of bad coaching and poor QB play from Stafford.

Antonio Gibson vs Saints

The Saints appear to have a good game in them every other week. They flubbed it against the Giants in week 4 so this should be their week to stiffen against the pass, meaning more focus on the run for WFT. I like Gibson to break 100 and get at least one score. They gave up 4.2 ypc to Barkley, I think Gibson should get at least that.

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt vs Chargers

The Chargers are shutting down QBs on the regular. Dak in week 2, Mahomes in week 3, and Carr in week 4, all under 270 yards. Chances are Baker will be handing the ball off about 40 times this game. Fire both both up as RB2s.

Saquon Barkley vs Cowboys

Dallas is in the bottom ten allowing 4.7 ypc, Barkley should be feasting again as the defense focuses on generating turnovers from Daniel Jones.

Trey Sermon vs the Cardinals

About the only thing that worked against the Cardinals for the Rams last week was Darrel Henderson. With Lance likely making his first start under center, Shanahan will look to protect him for a Fields-type debut by running the ball often, I think Sermon has a big day, potentially over 120 and 2 touchdowns.

Cordarelle Patterson vs Jets (UK)

Patterson SZN is in full effect. Ridley is missing the game, but honestly I don’t think he was cutting into Patterson’s targets anyway. I don’t know how it’s happening…oh wait yeah I do: Ryan’s arm is chewed bubble gum and he’s afraid to throw more than 10 yards downfield.

Running Back Sits

Obviously sit any back for the Texans, Dolphins, or Ravens.

DeAndre Swift vs Vikings

There is no stability in Swift and not really any for Jamal Williams either. Neither back can be trusted until the Lions rushing volume increases (22nd in attempts per game).

Damien Harris vs Texans

Someone is going to be getting more running back snaps for the Patriots who are 30th in the league in attempts, but do you really want to guess who? Would you be surprised if it was Branden Bolden, or Rhamondre Stevenson, only to see them disappear next week? Me neither. Pass.

Austin Ekeler vs Browns

The Browns defense deserves more credit than they are getting right now. I think they clamp down hard on Herbert and Larry Rountree ends up with a better stat-line, albeit not a good one.

Wide Receiver Starts

Obviously start guys like Kupp, Metcalf, Samuel, and Adams.

Laviska Shenault vs Titans

This is a blow up spot for Viska and his QB. Chark is out of the picture meaning more downfield routes, and Viska responded in a big way agains the Bengals.

Adam Thielen vs Lions

I expect both Vikings receivers to have big days against the worst pass defense in the league, but I especially think Thielen is in for a big day. I’m thinking only about 75 yards but two scores. Just call it a feelin.

Jamaar Chase vs Packers

The Packers are delivering one of the lowest YPA rates in the league. But Jair Alexander is injured and I don’t necessarily expect a shootout, but think this will be a higher passing volume game than Cincinnati is used to. I could see 40 attempts for Burrow without a healthy Mixon, and Chase should be the beneficiary.

Stefon Diggs vs Chiefs

Diggs’s breakout has not happened yet but it will happen this week against the Chiefs porous secondary. Buffalo will try to control the game with the run which will bring up safeties and free Diggs for multiple deepshots downfield. 120+ yards and at least a score.

Kadarius Toney vs Cowboys

The Cowboys are going to put Diggs on Golladay after his big week last week and focus on harassing Jones. Toney should be able to get open underneath and provide a good safety valve for Jones. I think 85+ yards and a score are in the cards.

Wide Receiver Sits

AJ Brown vs Jaguars

Remember, Brown wasn’t playing well before he got injured. If he plays this feels like a blow-up game, but I’d rather risk that on my bench than a 4-45 effort or an early exit.

Mike Evans vs Dolphins

The Bucs won’t need much other than Fournette to win this one. This feels like an odd one out game for Mike, as Xavien Howard focuses on him.

DK Metcalf vs Rams

There’s one thing on the Rams defense that still seems to work, and that’s blanket coverage from Jalen Ramsey. He’ll be jonesing for a challenge like Metcalf, and I think he wins more than he loses. I’m thinking Wilson takes the easy answer and this is a Lockett game.

Tight End Starts

You’re starting Kelce, Waller, and… ok that’s it.

Mike Gesicki vs Bucs

The Bucs absolutely suck against the pass, as shown by the Cardinals easily shutting down the Rams passing attack that basically raped them two weeks ago. They also gave up 19 straight completions to Mac Jones in the driving rain. Even with Brissett, Gesicki should be in line for at least 85 yards and a score.

Dawson Knox vs Chiefs

Knox is rolling and there is no reason to think that stops against the Chiefs terrible defense. Start with confidence, expect a TD and 45 yards.

Dalton Schultz vs Giants

Schultz is real this season. He had 58 and a touch last week in a run-heavy game script and saw 79% of the snaps. Right now Dak is relying on Schultz more than Lamb or Cooper. Weird, but true.

Tight End Sits

Tyler Higbee vs Seahawks

The Hawks are bad against the pass but this is a Rams team looking to recover its identity following a devastating loss, and Higbee is not the way to do that. I think Kupp, Woods, and Jackson feast and Higbee gets scraps.

Mark Andrews vs Colts

When Lamar Jackson throws for 300+ and you don’t have a good game, something is off on the connection. Getting LeVeon Bell involved in the passing game as well as Bateman make Andrews a risky play.

Superflex QB Deep Dive Week 5

This column is expressly designed for those of us playing in Superflex and 2QB leagues and is a deeper look at quarterback options, specifically for the second slot. It focuses primarily on sit/start decisions, sell-high-buy-low decisions, and analytics and patterns emerging at the QB position.

Obvious QB Starts Week 5

Josh Allen vs Chiefs: Bad defense, good QB, high scoring game.

Patrick Mahomes vs Bills: Bills have a good pass defense but nothing Mahomes can’t handle.

Lamar Jackson vs Colts: No reason to think too hard about this one. Lamar is on a tear right now and should be getting Bateman back this week.

Kyler Murray vs 49ers: With Lance under center this should be more of a game, but as we saw last week lack of competition is about the only thing that can limit Kyler’s fantasy potential.

Aaron Rodgers vs Bengals: This should be more of a fight with the Bengals unleashing the passing attack last week against and Mixon potentially gimpy.

Dak Prescott vs Giants: The Cowboys are running more and passing less, but Daniel Jones’s 400-yard outburst last week gives some hope that the Cowboys will need to pass to win this one.

Mathew Stafford vs Seahawks: Even on a down week with poor accuracy and terribe coaching, Stafford still delivered a decent day albeit in garbage time.

Russel Wilson vs Rams: The deteriorating play of Chris Carson likely means that the Seahwaks pass more.

Jalen Hurts vs Panthers: Jalen has now delivered QB1 numbers for two straight weeks and seems to rise to the level of his competition. I’m not worried about the Panthers defense shutting him down.

Tom Brady vs Dolphins: Brandy should rebound after a nasty night in driving rain against the Patriots. I don’t expect the Dolphins to put up much of a fight.

Justin Herbert vs Browns: I actually expect this to be another down game for Herbert as the Browns are just killing opposing QBs since they teed off on Fields in week 3.

Kirk Cousins vs Lions: A down game against the Browns shouldn’t stop you from rolling out Cousins against the Lions D.

Questionable QB Starts Week 5

Joe Burrow vs Packers

I almost put Burrow in the obvious section this week due to his stellar play and passing volume in week 4 against the Jaguars, but he did have a pretty rough first half. Regardless he had the highest rating of all QBs week 4 and had the third fewest yards on the 10th fewest attempts of all QBs playing 4 quarters.

Burrow is slowly becoming one of the best QBs in the league. He should get Tee Higgins back which should come at the expense of CJ Uzomah’s breakout role, but helps the passing game overall nonetheless. The Packers are not a tough defense and Rodgers and company will keep this game tight. Burrow is a great start this week.

Taylor Heinicke vs Saints

Daniel Jones showed that the Saints defense is beatable, but I don’t know if Heinicke possesses the tools that Jones used to do so. He delivered last week as expected against Atlanta, engineering a late game comeback to win 34-30 and a 290-3-0 line with 5-43 rushing. His chart shows good deep ball ability and he is keying on McLaurin who gives him the best shot at long completions.

I think Heinicke is a great start at QB2 and could outperform a few of the guys above in the QB1 index.

Trey Lance vs Cardinals

Jimmy G’s calf injury finally opened the door for Lance, and he responded with over 20 fantasy points in a half. There’s no question Lance is going to be good at some point, and there’s no questioning his physical ability, but I would pump the breaks just a bit before starting him over more established QBs. He did throw for 157 yards and a TD in just one half of action, but check out how he got 77 of those yards and the TD. Any quarterback in the league would have completed that pass. Hell I probably could have completed that pass. I think Lance is going to have just as much of his share of rookie bumps as the other rookie QBs, so start with some caution and realize it won’t necessarily be pretty.

Daniel Jones vs Cowboys

Will lightning strike twice? Daniel Jones was the top performing QB in the league week 4, racking up 402 yards passing and 2 TDs and 4 for 27 rushing against the Saints. Payton’s defense didn’t record a single sack against Jones, and the lack of pressure led to only a single interception from Jones, and no fumbles. 203 of his yards came after the catch, suggesting that the Saints did not rise to their usual level of defense in this game.

It’s hard to argue with this chart, as Jones was completing deep passes for touchdowns and hitting receivers regularly 15 yards behind the line of scrimmage, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance. The Cowboys are an underrated unit and have one of the best corners in the league in Travon Diggs. I expect he and Micah Parsons will disrupt Jones early and get him back to his normal output.

Matt Ryan vs Jets (UK)

Another guy I don’t expect to repeat his performance is Matt Ryan, who had his best game of the season in a losing effort against WFT (283-4). His completed air yards shot up to 7.8, much closer to his season average, but his deep ball is still lacking zip and he got lucky that Patterson was lost by the defense. As you can see from his chart, he’s still bunching most of his throws underneath.

The Jets are still one of the worst teams in the NFL, but they did hold Tannehill sans Julio and AJ to an 85 passer rating and a single passing TD. These UK games always seem to under deliver, so start with caution.

Zach Wilson vs Falcons (UK)

Ryan’s opponent had his coming out party against the pathetic Tennessee defense, throwing for 297-2-1 and notching a QBR that almost broke 100. The Falcons are bottom 10 in sack percentage so Wilson should be able to perform if he can shake off the rust that always comes with London games.

Wilson’s ability to make throws has never been in question, and he made some good ones in this game, directing his receivers and buying time in the pocket. But I would not bet on a repeat performance here. Expect a low-scoring, boring game, and under 250 yards passing with a pair of picks.

Sam Darnold vs Eagles

I actually expected Darnold to have a down week against the Cowboys, and in some respects he did. He had an 85 QBR but ended up getting it down with his legs again, rushing for two more scores and maintaining the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns by a QB. However his two passing touchdowns didn’t come until the fourth quarter, when the game was pretty much decided and the Cowboys let off the gas. Still, his owners have to be thrilled with the early returns even if they are unsustainable. 301-2-2 along with 6-35-2 will do that to you.

The Eagles are struggling and badly need a win. They are dead middle in both sack percentage and yards per completion. But I think the team rallies for a win here and you have to think a focus will be keeping Darnold out of the end zone. Still Darnold is a solid start in a start-two league.

Mac Jones vs Texans

What better way to rebound after a painful loss than to play the Texans? Mac played well in terrible conditions and did much better than Brady, completing 31 of 40 passes for 275 yards for 2 touchdowns and a pick. McDaniels has said their pass-run ratio is unsustainable, so expect fewer passes and more runs against a reeling Texans team. Moss and Singletary both had good days, so I think this will be similar to his game against the Jets in week 2: lots of running, very little passing, and an easy win. Sit Mac for better options this week.

Justin Fields vs Raiders

Fields had an incredible game against the Lions (irony noted) but had a terrible fantasy day. 11-17 for 209 and a pick is not going to win anyone a week as a QB2, but the potential is there. Lazor called a run-heavy game script that minimized the weakness of the offensive line and ended up buying Fields enough time in the pocket to connect with Mooney on several deep throws. Nagy announced today that Fields is the starter going forward, and I’d bet money he was told to start Fields or start working on his resumé. However it got done, it means good things for the offense now and in the future.

With more attempts and more time to hone his game, Fields will emerge as viable every-week starter at QB2 and could ascend to a low-end QB1 this year. Las Vegas is no slouch against the pass, in the top half of passing yards allowed but in the bottom half in sack percentage. Fields is still a risky starter but is worth a shot to see if Montgomery’s injury affords him more passing opportunities.

Ryan Tannehill vs Jaguars

As I noted last week, Tannehill is not well. It was happening before both Julio and AJ Brown went down with injuries, and it got worse against the Jets. Yes, he almost broke 300 yards, but he had an 85 QBR and only 3.8 completed air yards per completion. It’s obvious from his passing chart, 9 passes at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Furthermore everything beyond 20 yards deep was an incompletion. That can’t all be on the receivers. He also took 7 sacks. Something besides running Derek Henry 30+ times per game is going to have to start working for this offense. I wouldn’t start Tannehill unless both Julio and Brown are back, even against the Jags. Now is the time to trade Tannehill for a younger prospect with more potential like Lawrence, Fields, Jones, or Wilson. I doubt you can get Lance, that hype train is at full speed.

Trevor Lawrence vs Titans

BUY NOW. Buy before he goes against the team that just made Zach Wilson look like a competent quarterback. If you are holding an underperforming vet with good name recognition, like say Tannehill, make the offer today. Throw in a WR4 if you have to. Urban Meyer is quite obviously one to two losses away from eiher quitting or being fired. He obviously doesn’t care about coaching for the Jaguars. Losing Meyer will be addition by subtraction and allow Lawrence to flourish. Granted, he did not have a great fantasy day against the Bengals but that was easy to call. Despite the low numbers he was getting it done with his arms and his legs in the first half and if Meyer hadn’t flubbed the calls they probably would have won. Run, don’t walk to make an offer if you are in need of a solid QB2 or QB3 the rest of the way.

Bench Until Further Notice

Jared Goff: The Bears put on the breaks big time on defense last week and Goff gobbled up garbage time points. I don’t think that happens this week against a rising Minnesota defense.

Jacoby Brissett vs Bucs: Just not getting it done on any level.

Davis Mills: Not NFL ready, may never be.

Jameis Winston: It’s just not gonna happen this year for Jameis.

Drew Lock: If forced into action, won’t be starter material vs the Steelers.

Ben Roethlisberger: Nope.

Baker Mayfield vs Chargers: The Chargers are tough on opposing QBs this year, just ask Derek Carr. Mayfield is at best a game manager in the Browns offense and there are better options out there.