Superflex QB Deep Dive Week 5

This column is expressly designed for those of us playing in Superflex and 2QB leagues and is a deeper look at quarterback options, specifically for the second slot. It focuses primarily on sit/start decisions, sell-high-buy-low decisions, and analytics and patterns emerging at the QB position.

Obvious QB Starts Week 5

Josh Allen vs Chiefs: Bad defense, good QB, high scoring game.

Patrick Mahomes vs Bills: Bills have a good pass defense but nothing Mahomes can’t handle.

Lamar Jackson vs Colts: No reason to think too hard about this one. Lamar is on a tear right now and should be getting Bateman back this week.

Kyler Murray vs 49ers: With Lance under center this should be more of a game, but as we saw last week lack of competition is about the only thing that can limit Kyler’s fantasy potential.

Aaron Rodgers vs Bengals: This should be more of a fight with the Bengals unleashing the passing attack last week against and Mixon potentially gimpy.

Dak Prescott vs Giants: The Cowboys are running more and passing less, but Daniel Jones’s 400-yard outburst last week gives some hope that the Cowboys will need to pass to win this one.

Mathew Stafford vs Seahawks: Even on a down week with poor accuracy and terribe coaching, Stafford still delivered a decent day albeit in garbage time.

Russel Wilson vs Rams: The deteriorating play of Chris Carson likely means that the Seahwaks pass more.

Jalen Hurts vs Panthers: Jalen has now delivered QB1 numbers for two straight weeks and seems to rise to the level of his competition. I’m not worried about the Panthers defense shutting him down.

Tom Brady vs Dolphins: Brandy should rebound after a nasty night in driving rain against the Patriots. I don’t expect the Dolphins to put up much of a fight.

Justin Herbert vs Browns: I actually expect this to be another down game for Herbert as the Browns are just killing opposing QBs since they teed off on Fields in week 3.

Kirk Cousins vs Lions: A down game against the Browns shouldn’t stop you from rolling out Cousins against the Lions D.

Questionable QB Starts Week 5

Joe Burrow vs Packers

I almost put Burrow in the obvious section this week due to his stellar play and passing volume in week 4 against the Jaguars, but he did have a pretty rough first half. Regardless he had the highest rating of all QBs week 4 and had the third fewest yards on the 10th fewest attempts of all QBs playing 4 quarters.

Week 4

Burrow is slowly becoming one of the best QBs in the league. He should get Tee Higgins back which should come at the expense of CJ Uzomah’s breakout role, but helps the passing game overall nonetheless. The Packers are not a tough defense and Rodgers and company will keep this game tight. Burrow is a great start this week.

Taylor Heinicke vs Saints

Daniel Jones showed that the Saints defense is beatable, but I don’t know if Heinicke possesses the tools that Jones used to do so. He delivered last week as expected against Atlanta, engineering a late game comeback to win 34-30 and a 290-3-0 line with 5-43 rushing. His chart shows good deep ball ability and he is keying on McLaurin who gives him the best shot at long completions.

Week 4

I think Heinicke is a great start at QB2 and could outperform a few of the guys above in the QB1 index.

Trey Lance vs Cardinals

Jimmy G’s calf injury finally opened the door for Lance, and he responded with over 20 fantasy points in a half. There’s no question Lance is going to be good at some point, and there’s no questioning his physical ability, but I would pump the breaks just a bit before starting him over more established QBs. He did throw for 157 yards and a TD in just one half of action, but check out how he got 77 of those yards and the TD. Any quarterback in the league would have completed that pass. Hell I probably could have completed that pass. I think Lance is going to have just as much of his share of rookie bumps as the other rookie QBs, so start with some caution and realize it won’t necessarily be pretty.

Daniel Jones vs Cowboys

Will lightning strike twice? Daniel Jones was the top performing QB in the league week 4, racking up 402 yards passing and 2 TDs and 4 for 27 rushing against the Saints. Payton’s defense didn’t record a single sack against Jones, and the lack of pressure led to only a single interception from Jones, and no fumbles. 203 of his yards came after the catch, suggesting that the Saints did not rise to their usual level of defense in this game.

Week 4

It’s hard to argue with this chart, as Jones was completing deep passes for touchdowns and hitting receivers regularly 15 yards behind the line of scrimmage, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance. The Cowboys are an underrated unit and have one of the best corners in the league in Travon Diggs. I expect he and Micah Parsons will disrupt Jones early and get him back to his normal output.

Matt Ryan vs Jets (UK)

Another guy I don’t expect to repeat his performance is Matt Ryan, who had his best game of the season in a losing effort against WFT (283-4). His completed air yards shot up to 7.8, much closer to his season average, but his deep ball is still lacking zip and he got lucky that Patterson was lost by the defense. As you can see from his chart, he’s still bunching most of his throws underneath.

Week 4

The Jets are still one of the worst teams in the NFL, but they did hold Tannehill sans Julio and AJ to an 85 passer rating and a single passing TD. These UK games always seem to under deliver, so start with caution.

Zach Wilson vs Falcons (UK)

Ryan’s opponent had his coming out party against the pathetic Tennessee defense, throwing for 297-2-1 and notching a QBR that almost broke 100. The Falcons are bottom 10 in sack percentage so Wilson should be able to perform if he can shake off the rust that always comes with London games.

Week 4

Wilson’s ability to make throws has never been in question, and he made some good ones in this game, directing his receivers and buying time in the pocket. But I would not bet on a repeat performance here. Expect a low-scoring, boring game, and under 250 yards passing with a pair of picks.

Sam Darnold vs Eagles

I actually expected Darnold to have a down week against the Cowboys, and in some respects he did. He had an 85 QBR but ended up getting it down with his legs again, rushing for two more scores and maintaining the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns by a QB. However his two passing touchdowns didn’t come until the fourth quarter, when the game was pretty much decided and the Cowboys let off the gas. Still, his owners have to be thrilled with the early returns even if they are unsustainable. 301-2-2 along with 6-35-2 will do that to you.

The Eagles are struggling and badly need a win. They are dead middle in both sack percentage and yards per completion. But I think the team rallies for a win here and you have to think a focus will be keeping Darnold out of the end zone. Still Darnold is a solid start in a start-two league.

Mac Jones vs Texans

What better way to rebound after a painful loss than to play the Texans? Mac played well in terrible conditions and did much better than Brady, completing 31 of 40 passes for 275 yards for 2 touchdowns and a pick. McDaniels has said their pass-run ratio is unsustainable, so expect fewer passes and more runs against a reeling Texans team. Moss and Singletary both had good days, so I think this will be similar to his game against the Jets in week 2: lots of running, very little passing, and an easy win. Sit Mac for better options this week.

Justin Fields vs Raiders

Fields had an incredible game against the Lions (irony noted) but had a terrible fantasy day. 11-17 for 209 and a pick is not going to win anyone a week as a QB2, but the potential is there. Lazor called a run-heavy game script that minimized the weakness of the offensive line and ended up buying Fields enough time in the pocket to connect with Mooney on several deep throws. Nagy announced today that Fields is the starter going forward, and I’d bet money he was told to start Fields or start working on his resumé. However it got done, it means good things for the offense now and in the future.

Week 4

With more attempts and more time to hone his game, Fields will emerge as viable every-week starter at QB2 and could ascend to a low-end QB1 this year. Las Vegas is no slouch against the pass, in the top half of passing yards allowed but in the bottom half in sack percentage. Fields is still a risky starter but is worth a shot to see if Montgomery’s injury affords him more passing opportunities.

Ryan Tannehill vs Jaguars

As I noted last week, Tannehill is not well. It was happening before both Julio and AJ Brown went down with injuries, and it got worse against the Jets. Yes, he almost broke 300 yards, but he had an 85 QBR and only 3.8 completed air yards per completion. It’s obvious from his passing chart, 9 passes at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Week 4

Furthermore everything beyond 20 yards deep was an incompletion. That can’t all be on the receivers. He also took 7 sacks. Something besides running Derek Henry 30+ times per game is going to have to start working for this offense. I wouldn’t start Tannehill unless both Julio and Brown are back, even against the Jags. Now is the time to trade Tannehill for a younger prospect with more potential like Lawrence, Fields, Jones, or Wilson. I doubt you can get Lance, that hype train is at full speed.

Trevor Lawrence vs Titans

BUY NOW. Buy before he goes against the team that just made Zach Wilson look like a competent quarterback. If you are holding an underperforming vet with good name recognition, like say Tannehill, make the offer today. Throw in a WR4 if you have to. Urban Meyer is quite obviously one to two losses away from eiher quitting or being fired. He obviously doesn’t care about coaching for the Jaguars. Losing Meyer will be addition by subtraction and allow Lawrence to flourish. Granted, he did not have a great fantasy day against the Bengals but that was easy to call. Despite the low numbers he was getting it done with his arms and his legs in the first half and if Meyer hadn’t flubbed the calls they probably would have won. Run, don’t walk to make an offer if you are in need of a solid QB2 or QB3 the rest of the way.

Bench Until Further Notice

Jared Goff: The Bears put on the breaks big time on defense last week and Goff gobbled up garbage time points. I don’t think that happens this week against a rising Minnesota defense.

Jacoby Brissett vs Bucs: Just not getting it done on any level.

Davis Mills: Not NFL ready, may never be.

Jameis Winston: It’s just not gonna happen this year for Jameis.

Drew Lock: If forced into action, won’t be starter material vs the Steelers.

Ben Roethlisberger: Nope.

Baker Mayfield vs Chargers: The Chargers are tough on opposing QBs this year, just ask Derek Carr. Mayfield is at best a game manager in the Browns offense and there are better options out there.

Waiver Wire Week 4

Week 4 had some crazy stat-lines, and the craziest goes to Daniel Jones, who absolutely wrecked the Saints’ 7th-ranked defense on Sunday. I talked about Daniel’s potential breakout in my QB Deep Dive last week, so if you are playing Superflex and need to know who is on the rise for your QB2 slot, check back here later in the week for that column.

Waiver Wire Week 4 Quarterbacks

Daniel Jones, 31% rostered, 50% FAAB

Jones is the top WW add in all superflex leagues if available. Hell I would even put in a claim for him in start-1QB leagues just to see if last week was not an aberration. The return of John Ross definitely helped, as he grabbed 77 of Jones’s 402 yards and one of his 2 TDs. Jones’s uncharacteristic performance came against a good defense, and his rushing ability is still there to prop up down passing weeks.

Trey Lance, 31% rostered, 45% FAAB

Just like with Fields, the team is already talking about Garoppolo taking back the starting spot despite his excellent play. This is really the only reason why he is lower than Jones. Lance only completed 50% of his passes, and his long TD to Samuel did come on busted coverage, but his potential alone makes him worth a grab. 7 for 41 rushing in one half of play is pretty nice.

Justin Fields, 41% rostered, 30% FAAB

Nagy continues to invite death by claiming Dalton will start once healthy. Fields, with Lazor calling the plays, looked nothing short of fantastic despite a meager stat line. Unfortunately Nagy, who is the Mississippi to Urban’s Alabama in terms of being the one coach who consistently keeps the other from being the worst coach in the NFL, is apparently hellbent on holding back his team’s offense and marring the development of Justin Fields, who was regularly making plays that Dalton is simply incapable of. One has to take him seriously, though he better hope no one in Chicago knows where he lives if he carries through with his threat against the team. I really can’t think of any other way to describe starting Dalton after what we saw from Fields Sunday.

Taylor Heinicke, 10% rostered, 30% FAAB

I wrote that despite a bad day against the Bills, Heinicke would make for a good start against the Falcons. He did, once again carrying a defense that is supposed to be carrying the team with a 290-3-0 line and a 127 QBR. He also ran 5 times for 43 yards giving him a great fantasy day. This is the last time he will be available, and barring an injury should start over Fitz when he comes back.

Drops: Gentle Ben, Brissett, Jimmy G, Wentz

Waiver Wire Week 4 Running Backs

Kenny Gainwell, 30% rostered, 45% FAAB

I see a changing of the guard in Philly. Gainwell only saw 3 carries to Sanders’s 7, but he averaged over 10 yards a carry and also caught 6 of 8 targets for 58 yards. Sanders only gained 13 miserable yards on 7 carries. It’s Gainwell SZN from now on.

Damien Williams, 10% rostered, 40% FAAB

Dan Graziono just announced that Montgomery will miss 4-5 weeks and could be out until after the week 10 bye. This makes Williams a must-add in all formats.

Jeremy McNichols, 2% rostered, 15% FAAB

McNichols is not going to take any rushes away from Henry, but he caught 8 of 12 targets for 78 yards in a losing effort against the Jets. When Julio and Brown return these targets will go down, but not to nothing. He gets all third down work in front of Henry and is used more when the Titans are playing from behind late in games.

Branden Bolden, 2% rostered, 5% FAAB

We really should know by now. Despite Ivan Fears pumping up Stevenson he was active but non-existent in the game plan. Bolden got most of the vacated James White targets with 6-6 for 51. Taylor fumbled his only catch so Bolden’s role should be safe for a decade or so.

Drops: JJ Taylor, Ronald Jones, David Johnson, Mark Ingram

Waiver Wire Week 4 Wide Receivers

Darnell Mooney, 38% rostered, 45% FAAB

The Bear’s historically bad offense last week likely caused a lot of folks to give up hope. All it took to get the offense going was removing Nagy from the picture and playing the Lions. Mooney looked nothing short of fantastic. If someone could just kidnap Nagy and lock him in a cabin somewhere until the end of the season, Mooney could be a solid WR2 as he has an obvious connection with Fields. However, Nagy unfortunately exists and even more unfortunately is employed as the Bears head coach for some reason. Firing Nagy would require caring about the success of the franchise, something Bears ownership and management has never shown so much as an inkling towards. Still, the skill is there, the connection is there, and the only thing that can derail it is Dalton’s inevitable insertion back into the starting lineup.

AJ Green, 25% rostered, 30% FAAB

Green is getting targets, is in the most fantasy-friendly offense in the league, and has either a TD or over 100 yards in his past three games. His comeback is officially for real and he belongs on a roster if not in a starting lineup.

Kadarius Toney, 3% rostered, 20% FAAB

Toney saw nine targets in his first start and saw 78% of the snaps and a 22.5% target share. He caught 6 of 9 for 78 yards, and the team spent a first-round draft pick on him. And they actually won the game. I think he’s in line for significant targets going forward even when Shepard and Slayton return.

John Ross, 0% rostered, 15% FAAB

Yes that John Ross. His return to the Giants could not have gone much better, catching 3 passes for 77 yards and a touchdown. However as always he will be boom/bust so roster with that in mind.

Drops: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Rondale Moore, KJ Osborne, Darius Slayton

Waiver Wire Week 4 Tight Ends

Dawson Knox, 48% rostered, 20% FAAB

Knox has finally hit his stride with Buffalo, and honestly I didn’t think it would ever happen. But he has 4 TDs through 3 games and his targets have increased every week in that span, Still will be TD dependent, but there are plenty of those to go around in Buffalo’s offense.

Jared Cook, 48% rostered, 20% FAAB

Cook came back to life last night against Vegas and delivered for the faithful with 6 of 7 targets for 70 yards and a touchdown. Buyer beware his 52% snap share, even split with Parham, but Cook is the one that delivered.

CJ Uzomah, 2% rostered, 5% FAAB

Uzomah had an amazing game, and there is really no reason to doubt his ability. The reason I would advise underbidding is that he basically took on the role of Tee Higgins, who is likely back this week. I don’t see his targets sustaining with Higgins back in the lineup, and he likely reverts back to a td-dependent boom/bust TE the rest of the way.

Drops: Evan Engram, Will Dissly, Anthony Firkser

Waiver Wire Week 4 DST

Minnesota DST vs Detroit, 17% rostered, 3% FAAB

The Vikings held Cleveland in check and I like their chances against Detroit. Goff is proving to be wildly inaccurate and neither running back is getting much going on the ground. Detroit’s offense is limited to small gains, and Minnesota should be able to keep them under 17 points.

Dallas DST vs New York Giants, 23% rostered, 3% FAAB

Dan Quinn has this unit improving, even though they surrendered 28 points to the Panthers. I think Daniel Jones will be hard-pressed to repeat his performance and I like the Cowboys to keep them in check, but I don’t love this play. Can be useful in a spot against a team that seems like they could implode.

Drops: Miami, Washington

Non-QB Sit/Start for Week 4

Since this is a Superflex/2QB site, I decided to stop doing rankings for the time being and focus instead on deep dives into QB decisions (that article is here) and a separate article for thoughts on non-QB skill players. Here are some of my less obvious plays and sits in my non-qb sit/start for week 4.

Running Back Starts

Zack Moss vs Houston

Moss’s involvement and fantasy points have increased from week 2 to week 3 since he was a scratch in week 1. Last weekend we saw him take the lead in carries (13-11) and ypc (4.6-2.4) over Singletary. He also saw 3 targets to Singletary’s 2 and turned them into 3 catches for 31 yards and a touchdown. He appears to be set to take over the dominant share of this backfield and should have little resistance from Houston (ranked 15th in ypc allowed).

DeAndre Swift vs Bears

We just witnessed both Browns running backs absolutely destroy the Bears, with Hunt (the RB2) doing by far the most damage. The Bears are absolutely lost as a franchise right now. Nagy seems like he is asking the press what the Bears should do rather than the other way around. It’s week 4 and he doesn’t know who to start at QB, and it’s not because of injuries. I think both Lions RBs are good starts, but Swift is the best start because his coach basically told us to start him.

Nyhiem Hines vs Dolphins

Taylor was a DNP on Thursday and the Dolphins are looking like an easy matchup. If Taylor sits expect Hines to see 12-15 carries along with about 10 targets.

Running Back Sits

David Montgomery vs Lions

The Lions are not a good run defense, and the Bears should lean on Montgomery. But have we seen any evidence that the Bears can actually put their players in a place to succeed? There are rumors that Nagy will once again surrender playcalling duties which if it happens will help the entire Bears offense. If there is clear signal on that, Montgomery again becomes a safe play.

Saquon Barkley vs Saints

I’m really not loving this matchup against the 2nd-ranked Saints run defense. They completely shut down Damien Harris, held CMC to a 3.0 ypc average, and held Aaron Jones to 1.8 ypc. They won’t have a problem shutting down Saquon.

Wide Receiver Starts

Deebo Samuel vs Seahawks

The Hawks are bottom ten in allowed QBR and allowed passing yards but middle of the road in yards per completion. That plays directly to Deebo’s strengths, and I think he rebounds after a rough game of drops against the Packers.

Antonio Brown vs Patriots

Fresh off of COVID protocol, primetime game, revenge game, I’m betting Brown leads all Pats receivers in yardage with around 110 and a score. Gronk will lead in TDs with two.

Terry McLaurin vs Falcons

Terry should get open easily against the Falcons and we know Heinicke can get him the ball against inferior secondaries. The Falcons showed out well against the Giants because they lost both Shepard and Slayton during the game.

DK Metcalf vs 49ers

Metcalf is an every week starter but thought it was worth calling out that Tyler Lockett missed Thursday’s practice with a hip issue. As we saw last week, Metcalf thrived with all of Russel Wilson’s attention pointed in his direction. He could be a moon-shot if Lockett can’t go.

Wide Receiver Sits

Calvin Ridley vs WFT

Ryan’s arm is shot. He can’t throw deep with accuracy or velocity anymore which takes away the best part of Ridley’s game. I also expect WFT to get to Ryan a lot in a pride game. Think this is going to be a floor game for Ridley that features more short to intermediate targets, something like 7-72 with no TD.

Marquise Brown vs Broncos

Brown will bounce back, but likely not this week against the Bronco’s monster secondary.

Brandin Cooks vs Bills

Cooks has been matchup proof but that ends this weekend against the Bills who held McLaurin to 61 yards last week, shut out the Dolphins, and shut down all three Steelers receivers.

Tight End Starts

Kyle Pitts vs WFT

A broken clock is right twice a day. I will continue to be a broken clock on Kyle Pitts. Ryan and the Falcons need his YAC ability more than ever against WFT’s pass rush.

Rob Gronkowski vs Patriots

Maintain the faith given a clean bill of health. He will be a huge part of the Bucs plan against the Patriots and I don’t think there is really anyway the Patriots can sell out to stop him.

Tight End Sits

Mike Gesicki vs Colts

To be honest this one is more of a gut feeling than anything about his opponent or Miami’s game plan. After every game I’m which he eclipsed 80 yards last year he followed up with a game under 40 yards receiving. Darius Leonard is questionable. If he sits then Gesicki could be a better play.

Logan Thomas vs Falcons

Unfortunately Thomas has materialized as a low volume, touchdown dependent tight end this year. He caught one last week, playing him this week seems iffy.

Superflex QB Deep Dive Week 4

I decided to stop doing weekly rankings. The focus of this site is helping fantasy managers navigate superflex and 2QB leagues and while rankings are fun, I don’t feel like doing them adds value to the fantasy community. Sites like fantasypros.com already aggregate weekly rankings from tons of experts, and if you are a serious fan I would definitely recommend paying for a season-long subscription to footballguys.com, the best dedicated football fantasy site on the planet.

In place of rankings every week I will be taking a deep dive into QB performance, with a focus on the QBs that have questions. I won’t spend too much time on guys like Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and other obvious every-week starts unless their play deviates to the point that there are legitimate questions about the value they provider to your fantasy team.

Instead this column will focus on QBs with questions, and will serve as a combined sit-start/buy-low-sell-high for those QBs. I’ll do a separate column on non-QB skill players starts for the week.

QB Starts with Few to No Questions

These are in order, but if you are playing superflex you’re starting all these guys unless you play in a 4-team league.

Josh Allen vs Texans: Bad defense, bad team, great QB on the ascension. Don’t expect something equal to last week as they will lean on run in 4th quarter.

Kyler Murray vs Rams: Needs to rely less on talent and more on game plan, but great play.

Tom Brady vs Patriots: What more can be said. Expect Tom’s best game. New England has faced Tua, Zach Wilson, and Jameis, so any defensive stats don’t apply.

Lamar Jackson vs Broncos: Bateman back, will be eased in but Lamar needs another target. Will get a lot done with his legs.

Patrick Mahomes vs Philly: Didn’t stop Dak, won’t stop Patrick.

Rodgers vs Steelers: If Watt plays expect more sacks and dump offs, still QB1.

Stafford vs Cardinals: Stafford is a top-five QB over Rodgers rest of season.

Justin Herbert vs Raiders: No reason to think about this going against a middling pass defense.

Derek Carr vs Chargers: Yardage will come down this game against 7th-ranked pass D but no reason to sit.

Russel Wilson vs 49ers: Low volume passing efficiency – 28th in attempts, 9th in yards.

Dak Prescott vs Panthers: Panthers could spell trouble in pass rush and Chargers shut him down week 2. Even with questions he is starting unless you have two of the above.

Jalen Hurts vs Chiefs: He showed he can overcome adversity and deliver a good fantasy day. No reason to sit him against the Chiefs.

Kirk Cousins vs Browns: Ride the lightning. The TDs are going to come down, likely this week facing Myles Garrett, but no reason to sit him.

QBs with Major Questions

These are not in any particular order, just looking into issues facing QBs and trying to find answers.

Joe Burrow vs Jaguars

The Bengals currently have the second-fewest pass attempts per game in the league through three weeks, behind only the New Orleans Saints. This is extremely troubling for Burrow’s prospects as this is one game away from being a solid trend in the league.

This compares with the Bengals having the 2nd-most pass attempts per game last year with Burrow behind center. The Bengals are currently 2-1. That is the same number of wins they had last year in the ten games where Burrow was averaging 42 attempts per game.

Last week against the Steelers he had a season-low 18 pass attempts and was incredibly efficient with those passes even though he did throw a pick (14-18, 78%, 3-1, 172).

Week 3

Most likely, unless the Jaguars turn into a different team, they will not provide Zac Taylor any reason to turn away from a formula that is working better than last year. We often just see fantasy potential and forget that the only thing that the players and coaches care about is the W/L column. I don’t expect more than 25 pass attempts vs the Jags.

The worst part about this is that Burrow has improved in every possible measurement: he’s gone from 26th to 2nd against the blitz according to PFF. Except for his head-scratching 3-int game against the Bears (in three pass attempts) his grades are above 120. Completed air yards are up as well. He’s showing incredible chemistry with Jamaar Chase.

Burrow is not a solid start this week according to the trend. Jacksonville is a middling rush defense and leaning on Mixon once again should work. If you are looking to offload Burrow, wait until after his game next week against the Packers where the Bengals will have to keep up with the Packers offense.

Trevor Lawrence vs Bengals

When you draft a rookie QB, you expect turnovers. Most leagues only penalize interceptions to the tune of -1 or -2 points. They are absorbable if your QB is getting you massive yardage and touchdowns. See Jameis Winston 2019.

Trouble is, for the past two games, Lawrence’s yardage and TD output have taken a massive hit, making him a fantasy dud to the point you would be better in most leagues starting a decent WR3, RB3, or TE2 over him in your superflex spot. After hitting for 332-3-3 in week 1 he’s gone 118-1-2 and 219-1-2.

Furthermore, he’s on an 0-3 team about to be 0-4. Meyer has absolutely no business coaching in the NFL. But there are reasons for hope. Just probably not this week.

The attempts, deep throws, and deep completion rate are all there, meaning after this game Trevor could be a good buy low. Cincinnati is 8th against the the run and 14th against the pass, mostly because they gave up 351 to Cousins week 1 in an overtime game and basically allowed Ben to dink and dunk his way to 318 in a game the controlled all the way. Trevor is a sit this week if you have decent options.

Taylor Heinicke vs Falcons

Heinicke was flat out bad against the Bills. A completion rate below 60% and 212-2-2 in a game that was never close. No one should have expected that he would duplicate his Thursday night effort against the Giants, but even to realistic owners this was a poor passing effort. He saved his day with a rushing TD leading to a decent QB9 finish.

Week 3

Without the rushing TD he would have finished around QB20 in a down week for QB scoring. The Falcons managed to limit Daniel Jones’s rushing so be aware of that, but I think he makes for a good start against a limited Falcons defense.

Matt Ryan vs Redskins

If you want an in-depth look at what’s going on with Ryan just check out my article on the ATL passing game. For this game I expect the Washington pass rush to have a pride game and fluster Ryan, causing a lot of sacks and dump off passes. Pitts should have a decent game if Smith ever decides to feature his first-round investment. 10 targets should be a minimum. Ryan is a potential sit for skill players.

Sam Darnold vs Cowboys

Just because the Cowboys are 31st against the pass this year doesn’t mean Darnold is automatically in for a big game. Dallas is second in the league with 2 interceptions per game, and tied for 6th in fumbles recovered per game. The 3-0 Panthers have yet to face a dominant defense (the Saints were without multiple defenders in their week 2 game) so it’s fair to say Darnold hasn’t really been tested yet.

Week 3
Week 2

Darnold is getting a lot of his points with his legs, a trend I expect to disappear when CMC gets back. It just doesn’t feel sustainable. He’s a sell high candidate for someone who might be getting worried about Hurts. Might be best to do it before this weekend as Dallas largely held Hurts in check before he got himself into a rhythm with his legs. Darnold can’t do that.

Daniel Jones vs New Orleans

Jones has the third most rushing yards by a QB behind only Jackson and Hurts. We all talk about how a safe rushing floor is what we want in fantasy. Why is Jones only 34% rostered when he has the most passing yards out of the 3 and only 1 fewer passing TD than Lamar?

Well, probably because anyone playing in a superflex or 2qb league has been burned by Jones at least once in the past three years. And he’s a turnover machine right? Not so far. 1 lost fumble and zero interceptions through three weeks. Well he’s going in the wrong direction right? Wrong again: completion percentage is improving, interception % is going down, yards/completion are up, air yards per completion are up. And looking back to that amazing chart from JJ above, who has the 4th highest completion percentage on deep passes, after Herbert, Murray, and Brady? Daniel Jones.

So what the hell? He played Denver in week 1. Granted Denver hasn’t played anyone, but every QB who has played Denver has sucked. He had a 68-yard TD called back on a penalty in week 2 against Washington, had a deep TD bounce off Slayton’s hands, and even so he finished as QB4 in fantasy. Last week Atlanta limited his rushing, and he lost his top two receivers in game.

Passing Week 2
Rushing Week 2

Now, is New Orleans at full strength the right defense for a breakout game after a disappointing showing against the Falcons? No. But if you are sitting on Ben Roethlisberger, Zach Wilson, or even Justin Fields and he’s sitting there on the wire, what exactly do you need to see?

Jimmy Garoppolo vs Seahawks

The question here just continues to be when. When does Jimmy get the hook? He almost led his team to a win over the Niners and a perfect 3-0 record. He’s playing well enough to where no one should really consider benching him, not even for a potential rookie phenom.

But his chart shows one thing pretty clearly: he’s not going to lose the game for his team, but he limits their offense. No completions over 15 yards. Two attempts over 20, one incomplete, one intercepted. Plus a fumble lost on a backwards pass he never should have made.

Week 3

Jimmy has not played badly enough to lose the job. And he should perform well against a Seahawks that is allowing a 71% completion rate and has three sacks this year. So the answer to when Jimmy loses his job to Lance is not this week. He’s a decent QB2 start.

Mac Jones vs Patriots

This is the game I have had circled on the calendar for Mac’s breakout game all year. While New England has the 10th highest percentage of passing plays, they are 26th in yards per pass attempt. Whether McDaniels is calling a conservative game plan, or Mac is going away from deep reads, I don’t think either will be an option this week.

Week 3

From this chart, it doesn’t look like Mac is afraid to throw it deep, but he isn’t connecting for whatever reason. I count 7 total attempts beyond the 30. If he connects on just one of those he goes for over 300 in this game. Also, I just watched each of his interceptions. The first one was absolutely his fault. The second should have been a catch by Jonnu Smith. The third came at the end of the game when the outcome wasn’t in doubt and they were just tossing it into the end zone. So this line could have easily looked like 300-1-2 instead.

The Bucs are first in the NFL in sacks and I think they absolutely pin their ears back and go after Jones. His time in the pocket is 2.4 secs, just .1 second longer than Brady, and he’s 19th in the NFL in times being sacked at 6.

In other words, I still think this could be his coming out party. The Pats finally took the training wheels off against the Saints and while the results weren’t great, they were not disastrous either. I’d fire up Mac as a QB2 with confidence this week and grab him off the WW for lesser options if available.

Ben Roethlisberger vs Packers

Matt LeFleur doesn’t strike me as stupid, which means he is seeing the same things on film the rest of the fantasy community is seeing: Ben is completely cooked and shouldn’t finish the season. In case you need video evidence there is plenty on twitter:

Despite the obvious decline, Ben is third in the league in pass attempts and delivered a solid fantasy day on Sunday. I expect LaFleur to put everyone up at the line and try and take away the short and intermediate passes and dare Ben to throw deep. And I expect the Steelers offense to totally unravel when he does. If you can turn Ben into an asset with potential based on his week 3 numbers do so immediately. The wheels are about to fall off the bus.

Teddy Bridgewater vs Ravens

The Broncos have absolutely feasted on three of the worst teams in the NFL. Bridge didn’t have to do much against the Jets to win, which makes him a potential buy from an owner not paying that much attention. 235-0 is a terrible fantasy day so now would be the time to offer. You can remind them that Teddy has always been average and you don’t have to share that his air yards per completed pass and attempt are way up this year.

I expect a much more inspired performance against the Ravens and attempts back in the mid-thirties which could push him back above 300. His completion percentage has been mid-70s and he has three games with ratings north of 100. Denver is 22nd in pass attempts after tilts against inferior teams. Their schedule gets considerably tougher from here.

Baltimore remains a bottom-three pass defense so he’s a solid start this week and likely this is the last opportunity to buy low.

Ryan Tannehill vs Jets

Tannehill had a very Burrow-eqsue game last week, throwing for 3 touchdowns on only 197 yards and also coughing up 2 picks. He did have a great rushing day, rushing 5-56. AJ Brown is out for this game and Julio could be as well, but thus far Tannehill has been able to generate yards without much help from Brown. Losing both starting wide receivers would be bad for him, Derrick Henry, and the entire offense. I’m not liking his week 3 chart or his prospects against a Jets team that seems completely lost.

Week 3

It would be hard to trade Tannehill to anyone who pays attention to injury reports but I wouldn’t be shy in throwing out offers on name recognition for guys like Daniel Jones and Bridgewater. Both Julio and Brown have extensive injury histories and both are already hurt, and the cupboard is bare after them at receiver. Plus all Tannehill’s measurables are down from last year: completion %, TD %, adjusted yards per attempt, and QB rating.

Baker Mayfield vs Vikings

Baker isn’t so much a question as he is a tease. This team is just not built around the pass and never has been. If he gets you yards he doesn’t get you a touchdown. If he gets a TD he doesn’t get yards. Minnesota isn’t particularly good at anything defensively. So don’t expect anything more than a low-end QB2 performance against them as the Browns once again lean on their league-best rushing attack.

Low-volume, low touchdowns, low ability. Not what you want for fantasy.

Jameis Winston vs Giants:

Speaking of teases, Sean Payton is keeping the Saints to a league-low 21.3 passing attempts per game. That’s 4 fewer than Cincinnati. Given Jameis’s horrible showing against the Panthers and his TD prayer last week, I think this is a case of trust. We know Payton likes to have a dynamic passing offense. Looks like he doesn’t think he has the personnel for it.

I will eat some crow here. I hyped Winston all offseason. The pieces all appeared to be there for a monster season that you could get for a minimal 10th round investment, even in 2QB and Superflex leagues. This is what happens when you try and outsmart the system – you make yourself believe things that could be there, but certainly aren’t, at least not yet. And sometimes those things never materialize.

Week 3

Even on few attempts, Winston has proved wildly inaccurate the past two weeks. His longer TD to Callaway should have been an interception, but as Winston told Payton, God intervened. I can’t imagine this response inspired more trust from Payton.

With Burrow, you can start him knowing that even on low volume you get quality. Winston is a horrible combo of low-quantity and low-quality. Just watch the practice reports for Taysom Hill appearances with the first team at this point. I would sit Winston for good options at other positions like Zack Moss.

Abandon All Hope Ye Who Start These Guys

The order here is meaningless as starting these guys is fantasy suicide.

Carson Wentz vs Dolphins: Even with two good ankles he’s not good. With two bad ankles I’d rather start almost anyone.

Jacoby Brissett vs Colts: Just not a good QB.

Zach Wilson vs Titans: Capable of the occasional good throw but clearly not NFL ready. They really should have traded for Foles…not too late.

Davis Mills vs Buffalo: Looked better than expected last week but not an NFL QB yet.

Jared Goff vs Bears: He will have decent weeks. This week won’t be one of them.

Dalton/Fields vs Lions: Dalton returned to a limited practice Wednesday and I believe Nagy when he says Dalton is his starter when healthy. I think Fields heads back to the bench and Dalton barely beats the Lions and unfortunately saves Nagy’s job.

Waiver Wire Week 3

Post week 3 is usually when the waiver wire starts to thin, but it can also be a huge opportunity for long term adds. Once you have three weeks there is enough data to make better decisions, and guys that started slow and were the victim of hasty drops become available.

Waiver Wire Quarterbacks: Superflex

Trey Lance, 34% rostered, 25% FAAB

Jimmy G is holding the Niners back. He’s not bad, and they almost won against the Packers, but this offense needs an extra gear and I think Shanahan knows it. He won’t start against Seattle but he may start the following week. Bbbut Fields! Unlike the Bears the Niners have an o-line and a head coach.

Mac Jones, 20% rostered, FAAB 10%

To those just reading the stats it looks like Jones had a meltdown game and they’re not totally wrong. But at least one of his interceptions bounced off Smiths hands and into a defenders. And the Pats are 1-2. But consider that he lost James White, he was the number 1 rusher on the team (what?!) and finally was put in a position where he had to pass to give his team a chance to win. Someone pointed out that McDaniels is not helping Jones with a conservative game plan. That won’t be an option against the Bucs and frankly they looked helpless against Stafford and the Rams passing game.

Taylor Heinicke, 6% rostered, FAAB 10%

Heinicke looked predictably bad against the Bills. His fantasy score was above average and the WFT doesn’t have any other options. He gets Atlanta this week who may not be such a cake matchup after they shut down Daniel Jones.

Drops: Ben Roethlisberger, Zach Wilson, Matt Ryan

Waiver Wire Running Backs

Chuba Hubbard, 26% rostered, FAAB 10%

I wouldn’t spend too much here as I don’t expect him to play more than 1 game. CMC will be back soon, otherwise he would be on IR.

Rhamondre Stevenson, 10% rostered, FAAB 10%

If you missed the part about Mac Jones being the leading rusher on his team, MAC JONES WAS THE LEADING RUSHER ON HIS TEAM. Redshirt year over for Stevenson, though this will be a tough start against the Bucs.

JJ Taylor, 1% rostered, 1% FAAB

James White is out indefinitely and Taylor is the most likely replacement in the pass-catching RB role, though it could be N’Keal Harry.

Drops: Gainwell, Hyde, Jones Jr, Ingram

Waiver Wire Wide Receivers

Emmanuel Sanders, 27% rostered, FAAB 40%

Sanders has season-long WR3 potential averaging 6 targets a game. Last weeks breakout won’t be the norm but he should provide a 5-catch 60-yard floor with breakout weeks like last week. Don’t be afraid to spend to get him.

AJ Green, 15% rostered, FAAB 15%

Another guy getting a steady 6 targets a game, he had a TD in week 2 and went 5 for 112 last week. A mix of TD potential and yards should provide safe WR3 numbers going forward.

Hunter Renfrow, 12% rostered, FAAB 10%

Another guy seeing steady targets, but less sexy than the first two. Renfrow is a better route runner than you think and has earned the trust of Derek Carr. 7.5 targets a game and got a TD last week.

Drops: Elijah Moore, Agholor, Zach Pascal

Waiver Wire Tight Ends

Mike Gesicki, 56% rostered, FAAB 30%

Even though Gesicki is rostered in over half of leagues I felt I had to include him because the likelihood that he was dropped seems higher than this percentage. He saw 12 targets last week. That alone is reason to prioritize him, but he caught 10 of them for 86 yards. At an incredibly thin position, he is not only delivering value but doing it after a change at QB.

Dalton Schultz, 3% rostered, FAAB 25%

Schultz was the clear winner in the TE battle in Dallas last night and managed to haul in two scores along with 80 yards on 7 targets. Even with Jarwin seeing some work, this passing game is productive enough to support a TE1 along with CeeDee and Cooper. Schultz was the clear winner over Jarwin last night, who only saw 2 targets and gained 14 yards.

Tyler Conklin, 4% rostered, FAAB 10%

Conklin’s 8 targets came at the expense of KJ Osborne, who fell back to earth in week 3. They may trade target weeks as teams have to choose who to cover. Still worth a shot to see if he can maintain a floor.

Zach Ertz, 25% Rostered, FAAB 10%

Ertz looked like the favored TE to me in Philly last night, and Hurts showed he won’t wilt after a rough start. Ertz did not look washed up, and turned 7 targets into a productive 53 yards and a score. After seeing just 2 targets in each of his first two games, tonight may be a turning point or a blip. Worth a shot to see.

Drops: Adam Trautman, Pharoah Brown, Jared Cook, Blake Jarwin, Cole Kmet

Waiver Wire DST

Chicago, 29% rostered, FAAB 10%

Chicago has a good defense, they just can’t absorb the most putrid offense in NFL history. Nagy will be fired midseason which will improve things immediately. This week they get Detroit, a good spot start as the Bears can’t possibly get any worse.

Cincinatti, 5% rostered, FAAB 10%

Thursday night game against the Jags. Cincy has quietly been one of the better defenses all season and are positioned to take away the Jags only real weapon in James Robinson.

Miami, 17% rostered, FAAB 10%

They allowed Vegas a lot of points but made up for that with skill plays. They get a hobbled Carson Wentz and an Indy offense stuck in neutral at home this week.

Drops: New England, Pittsburgh, Las Vegas

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