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The Perfect 2QB Draft – Redraft

For the purposes of this article I am assuming the following: 12-team league, 2 starting QB slots, 3WR, 2RB, TE, Flex, K, DST with standard PPR scoring, no roster limits, and five bench spots. Drafting from the ten spot.

Pick 1.10: Go For the Record

The goal in round 1 is to get a player with almost guaranteed separation against almost all of his peers at the position. At the 10 spot in start 2QB leagues, one should expect that McCaffrey, Cook, Mahomes, Murray, Allen, Kamara, and probably Jackson and Henry are gone. To me, the guy that is likely available in late-rounds that offers significant upside over every other player at his position is Davante Adams.

I have Davante projected for over 50 points above the WR2 in HIll, and 122 points over the WR12 in Lamb.

That constitutes the significant advantage over peers I am looking for in round 1. I think Davante makes a serious run at Randy Moss’s 22-TD single-season record in the last dance.

Pick 2.3: Dak is Back

Assuming there is a solid return to health soon, I am targeting Dak Prescott at the 2.3. Normally I would not target a QB in the second and take best available in the third, but I feel Dak (if healthy) has a legit shot at finishing QB1.

His weapons could not possibly be better. HIs defense couldn’t be much worse. This is a lethal combo for QB production and I feel that competing in a 2QB league does require a stud QB1. I would not hate on anyone choosing to gamble and wait at QB, but if Dak is there in the second round in a start 2QB league, I think you have to jump.

I have Dak at 96 fantasy points over QB12 Joe Burrow, and 40 points over Lamar Jackson who I expect to go several slots before him.

Pick 3.10: Don’t Sleep on Dobbins

The spectre of Gus Edwards is depressing Dobbin’s value to the third round. The guy averaged 6 YPC as a rookie, is in line for increased passing down work, and has one of the best defenses in the league meaning there should be meaningful work in the 4th quarters of most games.

I love Dobbins this year and am only waiting to see how heavily Edwards is utilized in camp to move him above the likes of Jonathan Taylor. He screams value in the third. I’m still tweaking my rankings for him but right now I have him finishing as RB8.

Pick 4.3: Out Like a Lamb

Obviously I am buying big on the Dallas offense this season, and yes this is a reach. Cooper’s absence in camp gives Lamb all the room he needs to grab the lion’s share of targets, and I can’t think of a better stack than Dak and Lamb, assuming a full return to health for Dak (I’m not worried but it bears watching).

Not only am I reaching for Lamb, I am likely passing on Chris Carson, who is by far the safer and more sensible pick. He just doesn’t wow me. I don’t see him as a difference maker or league-winner, and I absolutely see Lamb being that this year.

Pairing Lamb and Adams this year would be devastating.

Pick 5.10: Out of the Woods

As tempting as it would be to panic and grab a RB or a second QB here, resist.

Rams WRs are due for a massive uptick this year with Stafford extending drives and increasing ADOT, and I expect Woods to be the main beneficiary. I can’t expect De’Andre Swift to be here, and frankly investing in any Lions players this year is foolish. Grab a key cog on an ascendent offense and close out your starting wide receivers.

Pick 6.3: James Robinson Isn’t Done

Waiting this long on running back carries a ton of risk. But rarely do teams that avoid risk win championships. But I think Robinson will still make for a solid RB2 this year. Why?

HIs offense will improve greatly with a generational talent under center able to extend drives. His understudy, Etienne, has been consistently described as a wide receiver and gadget player that we know Urban Meyer loves to utilize. And we also know Meyer likes to run the ball, a lot.

Robinson’s camp reports have been good, saying he is looking faster than last year. Factoring in just a 5% improvement from his rookie year, I have him as RB15, making him a solid #2.

Pick 7.10: Make the Most of It

Mostert will not average more than 15 carries a game. But for a guy who reached over 500 yards in 8 games last year, averaged over 5 ypc and almost 10 ypr, he can do a lot with a little. I do expect Sermon to be involved. But after watching college tape I think he will not be a rookie phenom that takes over the backfield. And I don’t see him getting passing down work over Mostert.

While Mostert will never be used as a goal-line back, his unbelievable speed makes him a threat to break one every time he touches the ball. The fantasy hive mind has a short memory, and is always distracted by the shiny new toy. Take that to the house, kinda like Mostert did on this one last year.

Pick 8.03: The Carter

We are already hearing the word “mentor” ascribed to Tevin Coleman. Personally I would not mind owning a piece of SF East’s backfield.

The buzz around Carter has been the most positive of the backs, and frankly Coleman has looked cooked since leaving Atlanta, and LaMicheal Perine did very little with his chances last year.

I think Carter is the right rookie for a late-round swing.

Pick 9.10: Antonio Brown

There is literally no player in the NFL who is a bigger douchebag or represents a ticking time-bomb more than Antonio Brown. No one.

Learned his lesson? Ready to focus? Hell no. When you are so cluelessly in love with yourself that you can produce a piece of trash that is so bad it constitutes an insult to auto-tuned mumble-rap (already an egregious insult to hip-hop), there is absolutely no hope for any type of redemption for you.

BUT, unfortunately for the NFL, dude can still play, and he was more of a 1C to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin when playing last year than a WR3. I have him at WR26 which makes him a steal in round 9 and one I can’t pass up, even if I do throw up in my mouth a little.

Pick 10.3: Jameis Winston – Key to Your Championship

I know you have been saying, since about round 5, isn’t this a 2QB draft? Aren’t all the viable QBs getting snatched left and right?

Yes. Except one. This begs a “what if I told you.”

What if I told you the league-leader in passing yards just two years ago would be available in the 10th round in a 2QB league? What if I told you that quarterback played with poor vision and had corrective surgery AFTER this season? And what if I told you this same QB got to sit and learn behind one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, and gets to play for one of the top offensive minds in the NFL, and is about to be handed the keys to one of the better offensive systems of the past decade?

That is exactly what Winston is this year. If his decision-making and turnovers are incurable, then this pick is basically doomed to failure, but this is all about making bets, and I’m putting my money on Winston’s redemption.

Pick 11.10: Taysom Hill – The Backup Plan

I said you had to take risks, not that you can’t hedge. Hill currently has an ADP in the 11th round, and even if Jameis gets named the starter, there is nothing wrong with insurance against an early or mid-season implosion.

If Hill ends up starting part or all of the season, you get an experienced QB who knows the system, has the confidence of the coaching staff, and can get points with his legs. You can’t do much better than that in round 11.

Pick 12.3: The Backup to the Backup Plan

Yes, in order to minimize risk this approach requires fielding 4 QBs and basically ignoring TE the entire draft. Goff is the last warm body on the board that can fill in on bye weeks and has 100% job security.

Pick 13.10: Traut Fishing

With Thomas out with surgery and likely on the outs permanently with the Saints staff, someone has to run routes and catch passes besides Alvin Kamara. I have Trautman finishing at TE12, which makes him just a borderline starter.

But I have just 15 points total separating him and T.J Hockenson, the TE7, who is going at the beginning of the sixth round. Basically if you aren’t spending a pick on a TE in the first four rounds, you can wait and wait and wait and still get a passable starter.

Pick 14.03: Gimme Moore

In case you haven’t noticed, Ole MIss WRs have done ok in the NFL. Elijah Moore is the star of Jets camp and an absolute steal in the last rounds of your draft. Getting a WR in the 14th round who could be a reliable flex starter by week 4 is almost unfair.

Unless you get him.

Pick 15.10: Miami Defense

While the Dolphins didn’t make huge moves in free agency, they quietly added solid depth and potential starters to a unit that finished 4th in the league in points allowed. I could also see going with the Browns here, but I give Miami the edge on points allowed.

Pick 16.03: Phillip Lindsay

Lindsay is as good a dart throw as any in the final round. I am assuming he’s available later than stated ADP given just how bad the mojo is around the Texans. If not, take Alexander Mattison and wait for Cook to get injured.

Perfect Draft: Final Results (Starters in Bold)

QB	RB	WR	TE	DST
Dak Prescott	J.K. Dobbins	Davante Adams	Adam Trautman	Dolphins
Jameis Winston	James Robinson	CeeDee Lamb
Taysom Hill	Raheem Mostert	Robert Woods
Jared Goff	Michael Carter	Antonio Brown
	Phillip Lindsay	Elijah Moore

This approach favors risk, maximizing starter VBD, and sacrificing depth. Dak Prescott in full health should offer massive value over at least 7 starting QBs in the QB1 slot. I also believe that Winston will perform more like a QB1 if he can just minimize turnovers enough to hold on to the starting job. If not, I think HIll’s ruching ability and experience make him at least equal in value to Jalen Hurts, currently ranked as QB12 in ADP. So two QB1s regardless of outcome in the QB2 slot.

Running back is a perceived weakness, but I think this group will outperform expectations across the board with the possible exception of Lindsay. I have Dobbins at RB8 which makes him a middle of the road RB1, but I think he has top-five potential. Robinson I have as RB15 meaning I think he’ll be an above average RB2. Mostert and Carter should see enough volume to be valuable bye-week/injury fill-ins with plenty of upside.

The lift that Davante Adams offers over the entire field (I have him at 40 points more than WR2) is something you really want on your side every week. Lamb is an admitted reach over guys like Allen Robinson and Terry McLaurin, but I see it coming together for him this season and I think you have to go with your gut. I see him finishing inside the top 10, and I think Woods will finish top 15 with Stafford under center. If Brown implodes (really the only way I can see him not finishing in the top 30 at WR) Elijah Moore or Raheem Mostert can fill in the flex spot admirably.

I purposefully ignored TE and DST and still feel fairly good about my options there.

This team got a “D+” rating from footballguys.com rate my team app which tells me I’m on to something.

Training Camp Battle Update August 4

Before training camps we began, we looked at camp battles that would have significant impact on superflex and 2QB leagues. Time to revisit those and add a few other notes that could impact your 2QB and superflex drafts this month.

Patriots QB Battle: Cam vs Lil Mac

Those hoping for Cam to go quietly into that good night (guilty) are going to be disappointed. This battle has been fairly even with Cam and Mac trading good and bad days. Belichik has called Newton “consistent” and originally declared Newton the week 1 starter. Reports show that Cam is improving day by day and Mac is having his rookie ups and downs.

Barring a meltdown by Cam in camp or preseason, it’s really hard to see him not starting the first half of the season. It’s Cam’s job to lose at this point, not Mac’s to win.

Saints QB Battle: Slight Edge to Winston

All the reports I have read have said that Winston appears very much improved from his years at Tampa. Both QBs have had wow throws in practice, but Winston has garnered more positive buzz.

Saints’ 4th practice in the books, and this one had by far the most action when it came to the passing game. Great day for Jameis Winston, highlighted by a deep completion to Marques Callaway, who extended to catch with fingertips. 2 great completions to Alvin Kamara among others
— Mike Triplett (@MikeTriplett) August 2, 2021

My money is still on Winston to start week 1, and Taysom to continue his gadget role.

Bears QB Battle: Fields Is the Obvious Choice

Whenever I think about this “battle” I hear Jimmy Volmer’s (from South Park) voice in my head: “I mean, come on.” Fields is absolutely lighting up camp and forcing Nagy’s hand as I thought he would be. Honestly I think he is the frontrunner for ROY already.

The week 1 game against the Rams may have Nagy cynically thinking that Dalton is the better sacrificial lamb to the Rams front 4, but I bet he’s also thinking that maybe, just maybe, putting Fields under center might just give them a chance to win that game.

The call from Bears Nation to start Fields will be deafening after preseason.

49ers QB Battle: Lance is Ready

Another situation that is becoming more obvious to beat writers and attendees at the 49ers camp is that Lance looks far more ready than most anticipated.

Lance has avoided some of the “down days” that have plagued other rookie QBs not named Justin Fields, but for now we should still expect Jimmy Garropolo to start the season. With every well-timed throw and good decision made in camp and preseason by Lance, Jimmy’s leash gets a foot or two shorter.

Dolphins QB: Tua Trending Up

As I wrote a couple weeks ago, what I am looking for about Tua are superlatives from teammates and coaches. We need to hear things that are not just good, but great.

I don’t know if we are there yet, but things are trending in the right direction for the second-year prospect out of Alabama. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler noted that he is hitting his deep throws, and teammate Myles Gaskin said that he has earned his leadership role. The headlines are good, but always read past the headlines.

Ravens Running Back Battle: Dobbins All Alone

Gus Edwards tested positive and has missed all of training camp thus far, giving all the first team reps to second-year pro J.K. Dobbins. From what I have read, Dobbins is taking advantage, and looks much improved in the pass game as well.

Edwards is not there to catch passes, so if Dobbins can really excel in that department, he creates a valuable safety net for Jackson in the rare instances he can’t juke oncoming defenders and take it himself.

We still need to see how the reps are split once Edwards is back in the mix, but I still think Dobbins is one of the bast RB values in redraft and dynasty, and is still available in the third round. For those looking to take a tier 1 QB anchor to your superflex or 2QB team, Dobbins provides potential top-five RB value that allows for drafting a QB early and not hurting at running back.

Jets: Wilson Development

Name the last really good Jets QB. I’ll wait.

If all you can come up with is Joe Namath, you’re not alone. Therefore we have to view the excitement around Wilson in context: Jets fans and the New York media are desperate for a good story. Even so, reports on Wilson have been mixed, as is expected.

Wilson rarely if ever faced pressure at BYU. They simply didn’t play many good defenses. Given that sacks aren’t allowed in training camp, we probably won’t get a read on Wilson’s ability to face a significant pass rush until week 2 in the preseason.

Rams: Stafford’s Impact on Offense

Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Stafford has been corking off some deep balls to Rams receivers in practice, and McVay is smart enough to not show too much of his changed offensive style with Stafford under center in preseason. But mark my words, Rams receivers will benefit and increase in value this season.

Jaguars Running Back Battle: Robinson Not Going Away

Local writers are noticing an improved, speedier James Robinson:

I haven’t written much about James Robinson throughout camp but he looks primed for another big season. Robinson consistently wins his reps. During teamwork, Robinson appears to be faster than he was a year ago. That’s a good sign for the Jaguars running game.
Jamal St. Cyr

If there’s one thing we know about Urban Meyer, other than we never really know much about Urban Meyer, it’s that he likes to run the ball. I currently have Etienne ranked higher in PPR leagues simply because I can’t see him catching fewer than 70 balls this year as he is moved all over the field. But I do expect Robinson to retain the bulk of the rushing work, and be a good but not spectacular back this season. RB3 with some RB2 upside in non-ppr leagues.

Broncos QB Battle: Drying Paint Draws Bigger Crowds

No change here, neither QB is showing much. Neither one will start in 2022 and both will start in 2021. Avoid.

Superflex Redraft Rankings Update August 24

I’ve decided to do my 2021 2QB/Superflex redraft rankings a little differently. Instead of a straight list of players in order, I want to provide more fluidity that will work for different drafting styles. I hope you like the format.

As I stated in my draft strategy article, you shouldn’t overreact to the 2QB or Superflex format if this is your first time drafting in such a league. I’m posting my rankings in tiers across the four important skill positions. Let’s get right into it.

UPDATE 8/24: Updated to address Wentz and Nelson returning to practice way ahead of schedule, and Jameis Winston grabbing the starting job last night in convincing fashion.

Superflex Redraft Rankings: Tier 1

QB	RB	WR	TE
Kyler Murray	Christian McCaffrey	Davante Adams	Darren Waller
Dak Prescott	Dalvin Cook	Tyreek Hill	Travis Kelce
Josh Allen	Alvin Kamara	Calvin Ridley
Patrick Mahomes		Stefon Diggs
Aaron Rodgers		Justin Jefferson
		DeAndre Hopkins

The reason I like this format is the scarcity of RB jumps off the page, as well as TE. There are 16 players overall in tier 1, meaning you should absolutely come out of round 1 with at least 1, and if you are drafting in the back half of a snake, two of these players in the first two rounds.

I have Murray as my QB1 because if not for a shoulder injury last year, he likely would have finished as QB1 in most leagues. He has rushing upside that is almost as good as Lamar Jackson, but is a much more accomplished passer.

As I stated in the earthquakes article I think Rodger’s last dance in Green Bay is going to be one for the record books. I will be looking to nab one of these five QBs in all start-two QB leagues this year.

I almost left Hopkins out of tier 1 due to age and vaccination concerns, but I am hoping someone talks some sense into him. Plus I have Murray as my QB1, so I am counting on an uptick in TDs for Hopkins after he caught only 6 last year.

I think Kamara will benefit from Thomas’s absence and there is now little doubt that Jameis Winston is going to start week 1, and if he plays like he did preseason week 2, will have no trouble holding on to the job. McCaffrey is the RB1 until someone shows me different. Like Lamar Jackson, it’s like getting two players in one slot. Cook is an every down back, catches passes, breaks big runs, and the offense runs through him. Henry is left off of tier 1 simply because he isn’t a part of the passing game.

Superflex Redraft Rankings: Tier 2

QB	RB	WR	TE
Lamar Jackson	Derrick Henry	A.J. Brown	George Kittle
Justin Herbert	Austin Ekeler	D.K. Metcalf
Russell Wilson	Nick Chubb	Terry McLaurin
Ryan Tannehill	Ezekial Elliott
	Jonathan Taylor
	Aaron Jones
	Antonio Gibson

UPDATE 8/24: Given good injury news for the Colts and Cowboys, Zeke and Taylor move up a few spots. Wentz and Quinton Nelson are back at practice and look almost fully recovered from their injuries. Dak is now taking deep throws at practice indicating his shoulder strain is almost over with. Rashod Bateman had core-muscle surgery after an injury in practice, but since recent reports show him progressing well, I’m not changing my ranking of Jackson yet.

First, let me address the elephant in the room. Lamar Jackson was terrible as a passer last year. Yes he’s the king of Konami Code QBs, and probably the most exciting player to watch at QB other than Mahomes. How bad was he as a passer? He eclipsed 250 yards just once all year, in the first game of the season, and never went over 300. For leagues that reward yardage bonuses that’s a killer.

Apologists have pointed to his skill position players, pointing out that he was throwing passes to the likes of “Hollywood” Brown, Willie Snead, and Dez Bryant. This is a valid argument. The problem is, how much has his situation improved in this regard? Rashod Bateman is unproven, and Sammy Watkins struggled to achieve fantasy relevance playing for THE CHIEFS. I don’t think anyone would suggest that Jackson offers more upside to receivers than Mahomes.

So why Tannehill over Brady? Tannehill’s situation improved demonstrably, even if Julio’s best days are behind him. Plus, without looking, how many rushing TDs did Tannehill have last year? 7! That’s 5th behind only Netwon, Murray, Allen, and Taysom Hill. Brady’s situation has not improved and father time has to start knocking on his door at some point. I’m probably wrong but I’m sticking with it.

The second tier of running backs is fat. Any one of these guys could finish top five at the position, and I’d be fine with rolling with any of them as my RB1. With ADPs in the early to mid-2nd, Gibson, Ekeler, and Jones are the best values and the ones I am most likely to snag if I’m gunning for the first tier of QBs.

I’m not sure if D.K. Metcalf’s freakish ability can overcome Pete Carrol’s innate conservatism on offense. It was the best of times and the worst of times last season, as those who owned Metcalf in the second half of last year can attest.

The only reason Kittle is in the second tier is that he excels so much as a blocker, and the uncertainty around his QB situation.

Superflex Redraft Rankings: Tier 3

QB	RB	WR	TE
Tom Brady	Saquon Barkley	CeeDee Lamb	Kyle Pitts
Joe Burrow	J.K. Dobbins	Robert Woods
Jalen Hurts	David Montgomery	Allen Robinson
Jameis Winston	Najee Harris	Cooper Kupp
	Chris Carson	Tee Higgins
	Josh Jacobs	Amari Cooper

UDATE 8/24: Moved Saquon to the top based on positive practice reports, added Jameis Winston to the bottom of tier 3 QBs and honestly he might still be too low. Bumping Lamb to the top based on positive news on Dak’s Health.

After Brady, Burrow, and Hurts, the QB position plateaus. I would be higher on Burrow if the Bengals had gone OL in round 1 instead of Chase, but I do think Chase vastly improves his targets if he can stay vertical long enough to take advantage.

Brady is gonna Brady, and I don’t see any reason to really increase or decrease his production from last year. Maybe a full season of Antonio Brown helps, but really Brady had no problem finding reliable targets before he got there.

As an Alabama fan, I can tell you than when Hurts played QB for the Tide, I thought his best shot at the NFL was at RB. When I saw him play at Oklahoma in 2019, I saw a changed man. His improvement as a passer was astounding, especially after losing his starting job and having the strength of character to overcome, transfer, and finish as a Heisman finalist. I believe he can make a similar leap in the NFL.

Obviously I have Jameis starting week 1 in New Orleans. I think his yards and interceptions decrease with a year of tutelage leading to better decisions. Plus no Mike Thomas for jump balls for a while. But Marquez Callaway looks like he could make Saints fans forget about Micheal Thomas.

I’m actually thrilled with this tier of running backs, and I realize I am more down on Saquon than most and here’s why: I think the Giants know they have no shot at making a run this year. And I think they have already shut the book on Daniel Jones though they would never admit it. Reloading at QB and starting 2022 with a fully healthy Saquon is probably their best near-term path to a Superbowl run. Given his first-round ADP, I doubt I will have Saquon on any of my team this year and I am fine with that as I only have him projected for around 225 carries.

I’m higher on Dobbins than most, and I love his value in the third. Edwards missing the first ten days of camp creates more opportunity and the coaches are saying the right things. He’s already taking advantage.

Obviously I’m buying that Stafford improves the Rams offense. I don’t think they will pass more, but I think their depth of targets will increase. Goff’s inability to deal with pressure resulted in yards/reception under 11 yards for both Woods and Kupp. I expect both to creep up more towards 14 and 13 respectively as the Rams stop relying on bubble screens.

Pitts is the last TE worth taking in the single digit rounds in my opinion. I have him at over 1,100 yards and 7 TDs. I do think he is a generational talent and think the rookie TE trend does not apply. Apparently I am not alone as he has a mid-to-late 4th ADP.

Superflex Redraft Rankings: Tier 4

QB	RB	WR	TE
Ryan Fitzpatrick	Clyde Edwards Helaire	Tyler Lockett	Logan Thomas
Kirk Cousins	Miles Sanders	Mike Evans	T.J. Hockenson
Matt Stafford	Joe Mixon	Julio Jones	Mark Andrews
Matt Ryan	D’Andre Swift	Chris Godwin	Robert Tonyan
Derek Carr	Mike Davis	Ja’Marr Chase	Tyler Higbee
		Brandon Aiyuk	Noah Fant
		Keenan Allen	Hunter Henry
		Will Fuller	Mike Gesicki
			Blake Jarwin

Update 8/24: Removing Etienne from this tier based on news of his LisFranc injury which may or may not require surgery. Put Matt Ryan in tier 4 just based on history and upgrade at HC.

I don’t think Stafford is really bound to improve much. I think he’s going to improve the Rams offense immeasurably, but I think he only gets a slight bump from McVay, plus the Rams defense is so good compared to the abysmal Detroit defense he’s had his whole career, the late game heroics will not be needed.

For the first time in a long time, Fitz has no one waiting in the wings. He’s probably my favorite player in the NFL and I am really glad he is getting the starting job all to himself for once. I’m fine with him as my QB2.

Any of these receivers would make a fine WR2 and a plus WR3. Given ADP I will likely end up with Chase or Lockett the most out of this group. I don’t know what to do about Julio. He could end up as WR5 or WR55. He’s currently going in the 4th, if he slides into the fifth or sixth he could be a league winner.

As I said, TE plateaus into a morass of mediocrity and ‘could-be’s. If I am looking at any of these guys I am waiting until after I’ve secured solid backups at WR and RB before taking any of them. I have a grand total of 24 PPR points separating the top and bottom of this tier. That’s 1.4 points per game, vs 77 draft slots. I’ll wait and clean up the scraps if I miss out on Pitts.

Superflex Redraft Rankings: Tier 5

QB	RB	WR	TE
Trevor Lawrence	Darrell Henderson	Antonio Brown	Cole Kmet
Justin Fields	Chase Edmonds	JuJu Smith Schuster	Adam Trautman
Ben Roethlisberger	James Robinson	D.J. Moore	Jonnu Smith
Tua Tagovailoa	Ronald Jones II	Michael Gallup	Gronk
Zach Wilson	Javonte Williams	Dionte Johnson
Baker Mayfield	Kareem Hunt	Chase Claypool
Carson Wentz		Devonta Smith
		Jerry Jeudy
		Marquez Callaway

UPDATE 8/24: Put Wentz back in and bumped Ben due to strong showing in preaseason. Maybe his arm is better. I’m not moving Robinson up yet as I think that is an overreaction to Etienne’s injury until we get more news. I removed Curtis Samuel because I just don’t see enough volume in what I expect to be an inconsistent offense that doesn’t need to score a lot of points to win games. A lot of his value came from rushing last year and I don’t see that continuing, and I think McKissic ends up eating a lot of his short targets. Callaway breaks into this tier after absolutely balling out. I think he and Jameis Winston will be on a lot of winning teams this year.

If you are waiting on QB2 I think you have to roll with Lawrence from this group. Or if you feel like you can weather the storm until Fields starts, he’s a fine option. Tua has had one good game and one bad game during the preseason, but I see him trending up.

Wilson and Roethlisberger could surprise some people. I think Fields has the highest per game upside, but Lawrence probably wins on total points.

Henderson gets the top spot by default due to volume, and I don’t think Williams unseats Melvin Gordon in camp.

I like Brown as the receiver with the best chance to jump out of this tier in a big way. I just don’t trust him not to become a locker room cancer, beat up a delivery guy, or do something else monstrously stupid to ruin his chances.

Similar to the QBs in this tier, I’d rather bet on upside from Kmet or Trautman than take Gronk or Smith.

Superflex Redraft Rankings: Tier 6

QB	RB	WR	TE
Mac Jones	Myles Gaskin	Laviska Shenault Jr.	Dallas Goedert
Trey Lance	Raheem Mostert	Robby Anderson	Jared Cook
Jared Goff	Damien Harris	Odell Beckham Jr.	Austin Hooper
Daniel Jones	Kenyan Drake	Russell Gage	Evan Engram
	Jamaal Williams	Kenny Golladay
	Nyheim Hines	Darnell Mooney
	David Johnson	Elijah Moore
		Courtland Sutton
		Tyler Boyd
		Corey Davis
		Curtis Samuel
		Jarvis Landry

UPDATE 8/24: Bateman is out until we hear a more concrete timetable. Put Samuel in his spot.

The top of this QB tier is guys that I think will deliver QB2 value for part of the season. The bottom half is guys who suck.

None of these running backs excite me. Harris should be good once Jones starts, but who says they won’t put Cam in at the goal line even then? It worked last year, why go away from it?

Out of this WR tier I like Mooney the best at ADP. Beckham’s name recognition will make him too pricey for me, and he’s not a guy I see outperforming ADP which is what you want at this point in the draft. I like Moore as a late-round swing for the fences. Ole Miss wide receivers have done ok in the NFL recently.

Boyd was a nice player but the writing is on the wall. Expect a decline from last year’s numbers. While I love the offseason news about Shenault, I think that Etienne will take the gadget snaps that should have been his, and I don’t see enough of a jump at WR to really cement his status above this tier.

Superflex Redraft Rankings: Tier 7

QB	RB	WR	TE
Drew Lock	Latavius Murray	Keelan Cole	Jimmy Graham
Sam Darnold	J.D. McKissic	Nelson Agholor	Irv Smith Jr.
Cam Newton	Leonard Fournette	Jaylen Waddle	Dan Arnold
Teddy Bridgewater	Gus Edwards	Mike Williams	Dalton Schutlz
Taysom Hill	Zack Moss	DJ Chark	Eric Ebron
	Devin Singletary	Emmanuel Sanders	Hayden Hurst
	Tony Pollard	Brandin Cooks
	Melvin Gordon	Marvin Jones
	James White	Marquise Brown

Not much to see here. Darnold is the only QB worth drafting. Yes, someone has to run the ball in Buffalo, and his name is Josh Allen. Edwards provides the most upside if a plateau emerges in Baltimore. I’d have Waddle much higher if I believed in Tua and the Dolphins didn’t sign Fuller who has the exact same skillset and more experience. These tight ends are hardly worth a roster spot.

Closing Thoughts

For 2QB and Superflex leagues, round 1 comes down to knowing who you are drafting against, and a lot of times that is a luxury. If you feel confident that one of the top 5 QBs will come back to you (or if you believe in Jackson as a Tier 1 QB) in round 2, I think taking one of the running backs (McAffrey, Cook, Kamara) or Adams might be the move. Personally I would not consider taking anyone else.

There is a ton of depth this year at running back. Tier 2 is deep and loaded with tier 1 talent if things break the right way. Tier 3 has guys that can be solid RB1s and great RB2s, and I’m watching Ravens camp closely on Dobbins. As I stated in my camp article, his 6 ypc as a rookie is legendary.

I’m fairly confident between tier 1, 2, and 3 at receiver, I can come away with a strong WR1 in round 3.

The position that bothers me the most this year is TE. I am a strong believer in reaching for difference makers, and there is no question in my mind the top 4 are going to offer great VBD value. I won’t be getting Kelce, his price is too high and too disruptive to my strategy. If Waller, Kittle, or Pitts are available in round 4 I’d have to think about nabbing one there and trying to hit homeruns on late round RBs, WRs, and QB2.

Read my perfect draft article and see how it holds up after two weeks of preseason football.

Fantasy Earthquakes

📍 Lambeau Field@AaronRodgers12 | #PackersCamp pic.twitter.com/iEy1Ar4rOw
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) July 27, 2021

Sometimes there are rumbles. Sometimes there are subtle shifts of the ground beneath our feet. And occasionally, there are earthquakes.

Rodgers reported to Packers camp yesterday, and while no deal is final yet, Schefter reports that a likely concession would be allowing him to choose his next location in 2022.

This has huge implications across redraft and dynasty.

Redraft Implications of Rodgers Playing in 2021

Davante Adams is your unquestioned WR1 and absolutely worth a mid-to-late first round pick. Aaron Jones is back in the second tier of running backs. Tonyan becomes a trustworthy TE1, and guys like Marquez Valdez Scantling and Amari Rodgers are decent late-round fliers. Rodgers? He’s going to go ballistic this year. I’m thinking he actually joins the 1st tier of QBs, albeit at the back end, as he and Adams look to break Randy Moss’s touchdown record. Let the last dance commence.

Dynasty Implications of Rodgers’ Contract

If Rodgers is allowed to choose his destination at the end of this season, which appears very likely, that sends ripples across the league. There are few teams that would not be immediately improved by signing Rodgers, and those are Kansas City, Buffalo, Arizona, Dallas, and that’s about it. We can assume that Jacksonville and San Francisco are going to give their generational talents a shot. The Bears are likely out as well.

If Mac Jones does not impress, I could see the Pats making a run, but they don’t have the skill players to attract Rodgers, though Belichik’s resumé would certainly be attractive to someone looking to make a run at a couple more superbowls. If they could bring over Adams as well, could be a lock IF Jones disappoints.

Denver’s resurgence of Manning’s career post-injury could be attractive, but their head coach situation is unsettled and I doubt Rodgers would want to play for a first-year head coach.

Washington? Ummm, if Rodgers thinks Green Bay’s front office is bad, I don’t think he’d like it there.

The Steelers are a great organization, but does he want to move to Pittsburgh for half the year?

To me the most obvious and likely spot is Miami. Great city, roster is loaded with skill players out wide, much improved defense. The Saints would probably be next on that list

The biggest impact of this uncertainty has to be on the trade market for Deshaun Watson. The Texans are asking for 3 1st-round picks and players for Watson, whose legal troubles continue to mount. Two more women have joined the suit, bringing the total who have filed police reports against him to 10. What team is going to offer up that much for a player who may end up suspended, or even worse, may actually be guilty of what these women are accusing him of?

Though the Eagles seem like a long shot for Rodgers, any team thinking of trading for Watson must now weigh his signing (and the mortgage-the-future package it would take to get him) against the possibility of getting 3-5 years out of Rodgers instead. Rodgers may be “complex” but he doesn’t come with PR-nightmare baggage right now.

Michael Thomas to Miss 5-6 Weeks of Regular Season

Michael Thomas is now slated to miss an unknown amount of time to begin the season. 5-6 weeks is the initial prognosis, which depresses the value a little of whoever starts at quarterback (this will affect Jameis more than Hill) but should lift the value of Tre’Quan Smith and Adam Trautman.

Smith should be a viable WR2/3 in fantasy and Trautman becomes more viable as a late-round flier as a TE2 with upside or a TE1 if you are going no TE for the single-digit rounds.

Saquon Starts on PUP

If you’ve been listening this offseason this is no surprise. Still it does show that the talk was not just a smokescreen, and the Giants are going to take their time with him. Saquon is the key to the Giant’s future, and with Daniel Jones being very much a question mark, expect Saquon to do little work in camp and get zero preseason reps.

Henderson Feeling the Love from McVay

“He likes me! He really likes me!”

McVay has been steadfast that the team is not rushing to sign a veteran running back and thinks that Henderson can be an every-down back.

While Henderson did not make an impact in the passing game last year, he did show burst as a runner and decent-to-good ability to run between the tackles. Henderson currently has an 8th-round ADP in 2QB leagues, meaning most drafters either doubt his ability or think McVay is blowing smoke. I’m buying at that price.

Zach Wilson is Already Screwing it Up

Trevor Lawrence signed his deal a month ago. Zach Wilson has yet to sign his and is now missing camp.

This is a HUGE red flag to me in dynasty. I don’t care what the reason is. This tells me that this kid’s head is not in the right place and increases my feeling that his bust potential is sky-high.

Zach, you are not special, you have not proved it, sign your deal and get in camp YESTERDAY.

2QB Fantasy Draft Strategy

If you are new to 2QB or Superflex drafts and are dipping your toes in the water this season, I have one central piece of advice: don’t overreact to the format.

Yes quarterbacks are infinitely more valuable. Yes quarterbacks remain the highest scoring players in just about every scoring system. But this doesn’t mean you throw out principles of Value-Based Drafting (VBD), originally conceived by Joe Bryant of Footballguys.com and still one of the best drafting principles to follow.

If you aren’t familiar with VBD, I highly recommend you read this article. But if you need the tl;dr version, consider this quote which neatly expresses the guiding principle:

The value of a player is determined not by the number of points he scores. His value is determined by how much he outscores his peers at his particular position.
– Joe Bryant

If your league features two starting quarterback spots, and there are no roster limits on the position, you do need to watch runs. Getting stuck on the wrong side of a QB run in a 2QB or Superflex league can be absolutely disastrous to your team. Simply because the best QBs are going to destroy your starters at that position, and given that QBs generally score the highest points in any format, that could lead to differentials that will be really hard to overcome even with a strong advantage at multiple other starting positions.

In my experience, going into any draft with a set plan of taking a certain number of positions by a certain round is usually a path to disaster. You should absolutely be aware of ADP so you can anticipate when runs will occur. Another thing is do NOT be afraid to overpay for the players you want. While doing your own projections is a massive pain, and it may not even give you projections better than what’s easily available online, it does force you to think through what players will improve on the previous year, what players you think will decline, and what players you think will stay the same.

Testing the Stud QB Theory

This morning I completed three mocks using rotoworld’s (Ahem, sorry, NBC Edge or whatever) mock draft tool, which even though I was drafting against computers allowed for a quick view of three different strategies, the first two of which I would not recommend.

In the first, drafting from the 10 spot, I decided on taking two QBs in the first two rounds. Here’s what I ended up with:

Roster Spot	Position	Round	Player
QB	QB	1	Josh Allen
RB	RB	4	Clyde Edwards Helaire
RB	RB	6	Chase Edmonds
WR	WR	3	Terry McLaurin
WR	WR	5	Robert Woods
WR	WR	7	Ja’Marr Chase
TE	TE	10	Evan Engram
Flex	Flex	2	Kyler Murray
K	K	15	Brandon McManus
DST	DST	12	Rams
Bench	RB	8	James Robinson
Bench	RB	9	Darrel Henderson
Bench	WR	11	Darnell Mooney
Bench	QB	13	Jameis Winston
Bench	WR	14	Elijah Moore

Obviously this approach netted me two stud QBs, who I currently have ranked #2 and #1 for the season at their position. However I am forced to start a totally unproven RB in my second slot in Edmonds, and I’m backing him up with even dicier prospects in Robinson and Henderson. My TE position is total crap and by the time I took Engram taking a backup TE would have been meaningless.

I missed out on surefire #1 WRs as well, even though I am happy with my group as I expect all three to vastly outperform ADP. It’s worth noting that I don’t think Rotoworld’s (it will always be Rotoworld to me baby) drafting engine has adjusted to the Superflex format.

No Quarterbacks Until Round 4

Roster Spot	Position	Round	Player
QB	QB	4	Kyler Murray
RB	RB	3	Chris Carson
RB	RB	5	Mike Davis
WR	WR	1	Tyreek Hill
WR	WR	2	DeAndre Hopkins
WR	WR	8	Ja’Marr Chase
TE	TE	6	Kyle Pitts
Flex	QB	7	Ryan Tannehill
K	K	15	Will Lutz
DST	DST	13	WFT
Bench	RB	9	Darrell Henderson
Bench	WR	10	Curtis Samuel
Bench	WR	11	Darnell Mooney
Bench	QB	12	Kirk Cousins
Bench	RB	14	Jamaal Williams

This is where the mock draft engine gets really exposed. There is no way Murray should be available in round 4, especially with both Rodgers and Watson likely to miss part or all of the season.

My WRs are much improved, though I don’t think Carson is a huge improvement over CEH. I definitely like Mike Davis better than Edmonds though. Pitts as TE1 is a huge improvement over Engram, despite his rookie status. Personally, I don’t put too much stock in the rookie TE trend. Every player and every situation is different.

No Set Strategy on Taking QBs

Roster Spot	Position	Round	Player
QB	QB	2	Josh Allen
RB	RB	1	Jonathan Taylor
RB	RB	4	Najee Harris
WR	WR	5	Ceedee Lamb
WR	WR	6	Cooper Kupp
WR	WR	7	Ja’Marr Chase
TE	TE	12	Cole Kmet
Flex	QB	3	Dak Prescott
K	K	15	Justin Tucker
DST	DST	13	Browns
Bench	RB	8	Javonte Williams
Bench	WR	9	Curtis Samuel
Bench	RB	10	Darrell Henderson
Bench	WR	11	Darnell Mooney
Bench	WR	14	Laviska Shenault

Depending on who you are drafting against, this mock felt the closest to what could actually happen in a real Superflex draft. In my Superflex money league last year, I was able to get DeShaun Watson in round 3, and he ended up as QB2 in that league’s scoring system.

While lacking a true stud WR1, I feel like Lamb and Kupp are in for monster seasons. Lamb was on a torrid pace before Dak went down, and Kupp should see better targets from Matt Stafford and benefit from more extended drives, since Stafford actually knows how to play quarterback unlike his predecessor.

I feel very good about starting Taylor every week, and I think between Harris and Williams, one will finish in the top 12 RBs this year. I did not draft a third QB, but Mac Jones, Justin Fields, and Jameis Winston went undrafted. By the time I need a bye week replacement, I think one of those three should be available and worth a start.

The point here is that even in a 2QB or Superflex format, you should always let the draft come to you. Belichek is the best coach in the league because he never goes into a game thinking “this is what I want to do.” He treats every team and every week as its own animal and adjusts accordingly.

But Aren’t These All Against Computers?

Yes, which means there is very little deviation from the expected rankings, and as I mentioned Rotoworld’s algo is probably not fine tuned to Superflex leagues. Which is why I am drafting in a Superflex Best Ball League tonight on myffpc.com and will be posting those results tomorrow for comparison.