Most will correctly cite that strength of schedule should not have a huge impact on your draft, even in redraft. After all, playing against teams that consistently score enough to win games usually benefits fantasy players. Higher scores mean more shootouts, or garbage time which while more risky can pose more fantasy reward as defenses switch to prevent and give up yards in chunks.
However, when rookie QBs figure into your draft plans, as they should in 2QB leagues, it’s worth a brief look at how it will impact those players.
Bears
The Bears come in at the 9th hardest schedule in the league and start off against the LA Rams ferocious pass rush. Since Dalton has been named the week 1 starter, this schedule will likely play to Fields’s advantage in terms of taking over the team.
However Fields’s owners need to beware of a brutal stretch in the middle of the season where the Bears take on the Bucs, 49ers, Steelers, and Ravens coming out of their November 15th bye. Expect Fields to struggle during this stretch.
Patriots
The Pats get the 12th hardest schedule which puts them solidly in the middle, but on the harsher side of the fence. They don’t have a murderer’s row of defenses like the Bears do, but face teams that can put up some serious points, which bodes well for whichever QB gets the job.
I don’t expect Cam to lose the job because he is getting picked apart by secondaries or shut down by the pass rush (with the exception of the Bucs on October 3rd). I expect Cam to lose the job because he’s just not that great of a passer and Jones is simply a better fit for the offense that New England has run for the better part of the past 20 years.
If Jones gets the reigns after week 5 he has a very favorable schedule for fantasy success, starting against the Texans followed by the Cowboys and the Jets. I can’t really think of three teams more conducive to rookie success at QB.
Jets
Zach Wilson is basically unchallenged for the starting role, so the easier the better as there is no one ahead of him. The Jets have the 20th hardest schedule, but Wilson does face some tough defenses out of the gate with the Pats in week 2 and what should be a much improved Broncos defense in week 3.
I expect the first half of the season to be rough for Wilson which means he could be a better WW or mid-season trade target than a draft target. I like his upside after the second tilt against the Pats October 24, with only the Colts and Bucs looking like tough matchups from there on out.
Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence, head coach shenanigans aside, is the only rookie signal caller other than Wilson without even a modicum of competition for the job. Therefore, the Jaguars’ 24th-toughest schedule works in his favor.
Trevor gets to make his NFL debut against the Texans, who have all the appearances of being the worst team in the league on both sides of the ball. They have jettisoned talent all over the organization and are now left with no quarterback, no running game, no receivers to speak of, and lack a single name of import on the defensive side of the ball.
Games against the Colts, Niners, Rams and Colts will be tough (he faces the Colts again in week 18 but that shouldn’t matter for fantasy) but overall the schedule is good news for his rookie progress.
49ers
The Niners have the easiest schedule in the league, which is the worst news for those hoping for significant production out of Lance this season.
Even with mediocre play, Jimmy G should be able to keep his squad above .500 and thus in the postseason hunt, which is likely going to keep Lance on the sideline. They don’t play a serious defense until October 24 against the Colts, and shouldn’t even face a serious challenge (assuming Rodgers doesn’t play) until October 10th against the Cardinals.
They could conceivably go into that week 4-0, which means even if Garropolo goes into the bye with a loss, the team is still 4-1 and well positioned for a postseason run. That doesn’t scream “go with the totally untested rookie” to me.
Even if they drop their next 3 against the Colts, Bears, and Cardinals, it would be unwise to make Lance’s first NFL start against the Rams and what should be the best defense in the NFL. Which makes November 21st against the Jags Lance’s likely first game as a starter if he doesn’t win the job in camp.
Bonus: Eagles and Dolphins
Former teammates Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa both get the benefit of easy schedules (25th and 27th respectively) in their sophomore campaigns. Truth is, neither seemed fully NFL ready in their rookie years, though Hurts was able to use his legs to salvage poor passing performances.
Tua is not so lucky. He is closer to Aaron Rodgers as a runner than Lamar Jackson, so he needs some leaky secondaries to build his confidence and refine his game. Unfortunately he won’t get it early, facing the Colts, Bucs, and Pats in his first five games.
Hurts has an easier runway, with only the Niners defense looming large in the first five weeks, which will buy him much needed time to acclimate to the speed of the game and get better at reads. Hurts is currently going as QB12ish due to his rushing floor, and Tua is going around QB21.