Tag: Trey Lance

QB Battles: The Final Countdown for Superflex Leagues

If you don’t know who these douchebags are that’s fine, it probably just means you’re under 40 or had exceedingly good taste in the eighties.

QB Battles are wrapping up left and right, time for a quick look back and where I was right and where I was wrong, and the implications for fantasy.

QB Battle #1: Cam Newton vs Mac Jones

One month ago I wrote that Mac Jones, barring showing himself to be a liability with accuracy or against the rush, would allow the Pats to get back to the kind of offense they want to run. I predicted that Belicihik and McDaniels would use Mac to get back to the old way of doing things sooner rather than later.

On August 4th I wrote that it appeared to be more Cam’s job to lose than Mac’s to win, and it was hard to see him not start the first half of the season, barring a meltdown by Cam. Cam’s awful first preseason game and his COVID debacle have definitely opened the door for Mac, but I have the feeling Cam will still get the start. However I don’t see him starting the first half of the season. He may not start the second half of the first game.

Reason being, as Tom Curran so eloquently put it, Mac Jones has made an incredibly solid case, most notably in joint practice with the Giants with Cam out. He has been not only the highest rated rookie passer in the preseason, he is one of the highest rated passers in the NFL this preseason.

This one is still, for some reason, undecided, but it’s not because we don’t know which QB makes the offense better and gives the team a better chance to win. And yes, you should be looking at him as a late-round QB3 in Superflex leagues. And unless you have a bye to cover in week 4, I wouldn’t worry about picking up Cam.

Fantasy Implications: Bump Meyers, Harris, White

QB Battle #2: Winston vs Hill

Winston slammed the door shut on any idea of Taysom starting with an eye-popping performance against the Jags first-team D. 9/10 passing, 128 yards, 2 TDs, and amazing pocket awareness on his second touchdown throw to recognize an unblocked defender, move to his right and time his throw to Callaway perfectly.

A month ago I wrote that barring any really negative camp reports or disasters in the preseason, he should win the starting job and was a steal at QB2 as the 28th QB off the board. I will admit after the first preseason game my confidence was shaken after neither QB really distinguished himself and he seemed hesitant in the pocket.

After Monday night’s game I dropped Matt Ryan for him in my Superflex money league (over $3k to first) and I’m happy with that decision still. I would not be surprised to see Jameis finish in the top-7 this year, even with Taysom coming in inside the five.

Fantasy Implications: Bump all Saints skill players, especially Callaway

QB Battle #3: Lock vs Bridgewater

A month ago I wrote that either player would be essentially a warm body at QB.

After the first preseason game I wrote that I thought Lock was the winner, but that I could see him playing his way out of the position and Teddy couldn’t overtake him on his own merits.

Though Lock did essentially sink his own ship in the second preseason game, I’ll say I was wrong here. Steady Teddy makes more sense for a team with a good defense and two good running backs, and Lock’s erratic play would torpedo the defense’s ability to keep them in games.

Fantasy Implications: Bump Jeudy, Fant, downgrade Sutton

QB Battle #4: Fields vs Dalton

“Rex is our quarterback.”

I’m still calling for a vague injury after Dalton gets destroyed behind what is now a suspect offensive line against the Rams week 1. Too bad because Fields could actually give the Bears a chance to win that game. If Nagy keeps Dalton in over Fields beyond that, expect calls for his head to get deafening in Chicago. If he keeps him in beyond week 4and the Bears are losing, Nagy and Pace should both be fired.

Fantasy Implications: Bump Rams Defense, Allen Robinson

QB Battle #5: Lance vs Garroppolo

At some point, probably against the Packers, 49ers fans will see this announcement and collectively lose their shit. However Lance has looked shaky at times during the preseason and might actually benefit from sitting for a game or three. But that’s it.

I originally predicted at the start of camps that we may not see Lance until November. I think he has greatly accelerated that timeline, but Jimmy will start the season and likely pile up a few wins. However, if Rodgers builds to a big lead in week 3, we may see a switch at halftime.

Fantasy Implications: Bump Deebo, Mostert; Downgrade Sherfield

Fake QB Battle: Trevor Lawrence vs Gaslighting

I’m not even going to write about Lawrence or his preseason. Instead I am going to write about what a clueless, inept jackass his coach is.

We have not even finished the preseason and he is already losing the locker room. And he tried really, really hard to do it. Urban Meyer has already proven that he is totally unfit for the NFL, and Shahid Khan is an idiot for bringing him out of retirement.

Meyer could have, at any point, looked at what had not worked for other college coaches making the transition to the pros, and learned from their mistakes. He could have realized that he is now dealing with professionals, not kids (Saban), and that gimmicky crap doesn’t work (Kelly).

Instead, he chose not to learn anything and immediately began repeating their mistakes, essentially gaslighting his number 1 pick and the media with a laughably false QB “competition” and bringing back Tim Tebow.

He has started off by insulting his number 1 pick and the entire NFL community in general, insulting every player on the camp roster by giving a spot to someone who hadn’t played a snap of pro football for years, and oh yeah, hiring a racist on staff.

I hate this for Lawrence, as he is saddled with a coach clearly out of his depth who refuses to learn, and an owner who clearly doesn’t give two shits about his team. He’s a good kid and a huge talent and if Meyer stays in Jacksonville past this season, his career and talent are going to be wasted.

I’m also sorry for anyone in Jacksonville who had hope for this team after wallowing in mediocrity for years. Because if Kahn cared or knew what he was doing, Eric Bienemy would currently be your head coach and you would be looking at a potentially great run with Lawrence under center. Instead you got a clown, hired by a clown, and a really shitty circus.

Fantasy Implications: Trade all Jags, this is going to be a shit-show

QB Battles Winners and Losers

After only one week of preseason it’s too early to call, but drafts are happening and have been happening, so one week might be the best data set you have to work with.

Superflex and 2QB leagues mean that every week 20-24 QBs are starting, and for those without roster limits, usually every starting QB is rostered. Let’s take a quick look at what we saw in preseason week 1 and see if that gives us any edge on predicting the eventual winner, which in many cases may not be the week 1 starter.

Fields vs Dalton, Bears

Winner: Fields

I watched every snap for both QBs and while Fields looked very much like a rookie, almost fumbling his first carry and taking a bit too long to release a throw in the end zone, he avoided any major mistakes in the first half, and tightened up considerably toward the end. His throws were accurate, and the game did not seem too big for him.

In the second half he really started to shine, obviously more comfortable (though playing against worse competition). He showcased his speed on a run to the sideline where he accelerated and picked up an extra 7-10 yards, outrunning a couple Dolphin defenders.

Loser: Nagy’s False Equivalency

Matt Nagy for some reason has clung to the example of Alex Smith and Pat Mahomes like it is some iron-clad formula for success that is applicable to any context. Here are some major differences:

  • Alex Smith was better then than Dalton is now
  • Andy Reid was not in danger of losing his job as Nagy is now

Plus, are we really to suffer under the assumption that Mahomes is looking like potentially the greatest QB of all time just because he sat behind Alex Smith for almost a full season? He put up video game numbers in college. He blew up the preseason his rookie year. This is one of the worst forms of mistaking correlation for causation I have ever seen.

When making the decision of starting a rookie QB, only two questions matter: Does starting the rookie give you a better chance to win now? Undoubtedly yes. Will starting the rookie negatively impact your chances to win later? Fields gave us no reason to think so.

Mac Jones vs Cam Newton, Patriots

Credit: Pats Pulpit

Winner: Mac Jones

The stats were in Mac’s favor, and they don’t even begin to tell the story, not even when looking at Newtons .3-yard depth of target. Most of Newton’s yards were added after the catch on two catch and runs by Jonnu Smith and James White, both thrown at or around the line of scrimmage. The offense was stagnant, Cam was holding on to the ball too long, and it just looked a lot like last year.

When Jones entered the offense immediately started clicking. He took instant command of the pocket, the ball came out on time and on target, and even though the playcalling was conservative, he showed that he simply allows the Patriots to do what the Patriots want to do on offense way better than Cam does.

Loser: Fantasy GMs

Unfortunately I don’t believe this was ever a true competition and I don’t believe Jones will start week 1, and I don’t know when he will start. And if you want to bet on guessing what Bill Belichik is thinking, good luck. If you want to depend on either as your QB2, you’ll have to take both QBs until Jones starts, because there is no way Cam starts the whole season. But there’s also no way of knowing how long he will play.

Drew Lock vs Teddy Bridgewater, Broncos

Winner: Drew Lock

We knew that Lock could throw the deep ball, but he put together an amazing fist couple of drives ending in this beautiful 80-yard bomb to KJ Hamler. But the bigger news was he just didn’t make any headscratcher throws, and he connected with Jerry Jeudy on a 33-yard catch and run.

Loser: Teddy Bridgewater

Teddy didn’t do anything wrong and I think this is still something that we could see switch later in the season. I don’t like betting on players to change their stripes in their third year, and I could see Lock playing his way out of the starting role. But given who Teddy is, I can’t see him overtaking Lock on his own merits.

Taysom Hill vs Jameis Winston, Saints

Credit: Saints Wire

Winner: Taysom Hill

I want to be clear that neither QB played well enough to cement a solid claim on the starting job. I’m giving it to Taysom based solely on the fact that he started. His accuracy was off, not on his interception which was due to a receiver quitting on his route, but just in general. He should have been picked off a second time.

Jameis looked like he was still having trouble with his reads and struggling under mild pressure. He did pick it up later on, but there was nothing convincing about his performance.

Loser: Me

I have been predicting Jameis as an incredible late-round value with an ADP in the 10th to serve as your QB2 this year, based on his one-year removed season leading the league in passing yards. This preseason game leads me to think that we may see multiple switches at QB in season, with both struggling.

The old adage may apply: If you’ve got two starting quarterbacks, you’ve got none.

Trey Lance vs Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers

Winner: 49ers Schedule

Lance did all the things we knew he could do: throw deep, throw accurate, throw on the run. Jimmy G looked exactly like the player we have seen for years, and is likely who we will see under center for most of this year.

The 49ers have the easiest schedule in the league. There is a very good chance they can amass a winning record in the first half just relying on their running game and their defense. As much as Lance looks ready and a superior talent to Garoppolo, the truth is the 49ers probably won’t need him to win games.

Loser: 49ers Fans

The most likely outcome is that fans are teased with Lance on situational plays and get only glimpses of his talent for the majority of the season. Those looking to make Lance their QB2 will either have to depend on their QB3 to start in the second QB or superflex slot, or hope to get lucky on the waiver wire.

Preseason August 14 and 15 Observations

The big takeaway for the Bears is that Fields looked absolutely as advertised, even if it did take him most of the second quarter to get going.

There were a ton of games Saturday and Sunday so I won’t cover all of them but I’ll cover all of the rookie QBs and anything else that stood out.

Bears vs Dolphins: Preseason Week 1

The big takeaway for the Bears is that Fields looked absolutely as advertised, even if it did take him most of the second quarter to get going. He created space with his legs, threw accurate passes from both inside and outside the pocket, and showed the potential that the Bears offense could have with him under center.

Damien Williams entered the game early after David Montgomery left immediately after his first carry with a noticeable limp. Williams looked much like he did the last time we saw him with KC, showing good burst and catching passes out of the backfield.

Tua Tagovailoa actually looked pretty good prior to a really bad decision to throw into tight coverage in the end zone, resulting in a drive killing interception. Malcolm Brown actually started in front of Myles Gaskin but did little with his carries. Jaylen Waddle had a good return and flashed his speed but did little in the passing game.

Jacoby Brissett looked more than capable as a backup and could be a good fill-in QB if Tua goes down.

Broncos vs Vikings: Preseason Week 1

Credit: NFL.com

Drew Lock looked surprisingly sharp in this game, connecting with KJ Hamler for a beautiful 80-yard touchdown, and Trinity Benson on a short TD for 4 yards later in the first quarter. Lock also connected with Jerry Jeudy on a 33-yard catch and run, giving hope to Jeudy owners if Lock gets the starting nod which looks likely at this point.

Bridgewater should have had a rushing score in addition to his passing score to Benson in the third quarter, but simply did not look as explosive as Lock.

Javonte Williams looked powerful and decisive as a runner, and had a nice TD along the left edge called back on holding. Definitely a value in later rounds.

Minnesota struggled to get anything going under Browning, and Kellen Mond did not look ready for primetime, even against the 2s and 3s.

Saints vs Ravens: Preseason Week 1

Credit: NFL.com

Taysom started and was looking good at first. The first interception was not his fault as his receiver quit on a drag route, causing the timing throw to fall into a defenders waiting arms. However he should have been picked off on a subsequent drive, showing his accuracy still remains a work in progress.

Jameis looked hesitant in his decision making when he went in, sharpened up later but also had a pick and didn’t really establish himself even against the 2’s. Neither QB staked their claim to the starting job.

The Ravens offense did not look good, and Dobbins struggled to make anything of the few carries he got. McSorley looked decent, and Devin Duvernay actually had a decent game. With Batemon likely starting on IR, he could provide some value in very deep leagues.

The surprise of the night was a dominant rushing performance for Tony Jones Jr., rushing for 82 yards and a touchdown on just 7 carries, and catching 5 balls for 38 yards. Dynasty leagues should take notice.

Jaguars vs Browns: Preseason Week 1

Credit: NFL.com

After a quick fumble and recovery on his first snap in the NFL, Lawrence recovered his composure and unleashed a few zip passes that proved his worth as the first overall pick. The stat line is less impressive than his throws.

Chiefs vs 49ers: Preseason Week 1

Credit: Sports Illustrated

Lance was the other big news of the day, showcasing a really powerful arm on an 80-yard touchdown to Trent Sherfield. He also looked ready for the big stage, though he did take a couple of sacks where he waited too long in the pocket and should have thrown the ball away. His receivers didn’t do his stat line any favors with multiple drops.

Trey Sermon looked good…like really good. Nothing too spectacular, just decisive, quick, and powerful. He could easily take over this backfield if Mostert stumbles out of the gate.

Clyde Edwards Helaire looked good for the chiefs, as did Byron Pringle, who caught a 10-yard touchdown early in the game, while Mecole Hardman had 1 target and no catches.

It will be really hard for Shanahan to keep Lance hidden away on the bench for long, and he has to be rethinking his stance after Saturday’s display.

Jets vs Giants: Preseason Week 1

Credit: NFL.com

Of the rookie QBs, Wilson was probably the least impressive. He did have nice zip on his completions along with a couple really bad interceptions. He didn’t do anything wrong or disconcerting to Jets fans, just didn’t shine as bright as the other four. He finished 6 of 9 for 63 yards, no TDs, no picks.

Top QB2 Draft Targets for 2QB and Superflex Leagues

2QB Leagues are rarely won on the strength of the QB1. Most competitive teams will field an especially strong QB since few teams are waiting to draft their first QB.

Having a strong QB2 is essential, and knowing where the value exists at that position is key. Teams that opt for safety at this position usually sacrifice valuable players at important skill positions like WR2 and WR3 and RB3 when they grab “safe” QB2s in the mid-rounds.

For the purposes of this article I am using 2QB ADP rankings from fantasyfootballcalculator.com and we are only looking at QB13 and above (assuming a 12-team league). If for some reason someone like Brady, Hurts, or Tannehill falls into your hands in later rounds, jump on that opportunity as long as you’ve secured both starting RBs and at least two starting WRs.

This article will assume your draftmates know what they are doing, and as always we will embrace upside and risk over security.

QB2 Target #1: Jameis Winston

As I mentioned in my perfect draft article, I think Winston is a potential league winner in 2QB leagues this year:

What if I told you the league-leader in passing yards just two years ago would be available in the 10th round in a 2QB league? What if I told you that quarterback played with poor vision and had corrective surgery AFTER this season? And what if I told you this same QB got to sit and learn behind one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, and gets to play for one of the top offensive minds in the NFL, and is about to be handed the keys to one of the better offensive systems of the past decade?

-Yours truly

Winston is safely available in the 10th round, and even better, if you are looking for insurance against a total implosion, you can get Taysom Hill one round later. Realistically though, I don’t think Payton would start him if he didn’t think he had exorcized Winston’s turnover demons.

Winston doesn’t have to totally cure his decision-making woes to perform like a top-8 QB this year. He just has to curb them enough to not put the Saints in a position to lose winnable games, which will result in him getting yanked for Hill quick.

Given his upside (at least 4700 passing yards and 30+ TDs) there is no other QB available this late who can deliver those kind of stats. He’s worth the risk.

QB2 Target #2: Joe Burrow

Credit: WAFB

Burrow is barely a QB2 at his fourth round ADP and QB13. But after he caught his stride as a rookie, before his knee injury, Burrow was performing like a top-five QB as a rookie with one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.

Much has been made of one beat writer report during camp that claimed Burrow was looking scared in the pocket and missing throws that seemed like “layups” last season.

Since that reports, beat writers are reporting steady progression.

I think Burrow may have another shaky week before he hits full stride, but also think there are few QBs available after the first 12 with his combo of talent, volume, and skill players around him. Cincinnati has one of the most talented WR trios in the NFL along with Dallas and Tampa, and despite lingering concerns about the offensive line, I think Burrow is poised for a potential top-10 finish, especially in leagues that offer yardage bonuses.

QB2 Target #3: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Credit: Business Insider

If there is a better guy to root for in the NFL, I don’t know who it is. But at a 6th-round ADP, we need more than a good story to settle on for Fitzmagic as a QB2.

Was he that good with Miami last year? Yes and no (literally). His splits are downright schizo. In the first 6 games, he had three games where he threw for under 200 yards, and three games where he threw for over 300. He had a QB rating as high as 154.5 and as low as 44.6. In two games he had a total of five picks and zero TDs. In another three he had seven scores and no picks.

So is there really reason to believe that Fitz will even out in his 16th year in the league? Basically no. He will have better weapons this year, and for the first time in a while no one knocking on the door, but if you draft Fitz as your QB2 be ready for a roller coaster.

QB2 Target #4: Matt Ryan

Credit: Blogging Dirty

Matt Ryan is the anti-Fitz: a picture of consistency, and for some reason a guy I absolutely can not stand. Maybe it’s his goofy-ass face.

But the guy is practically a lock for 4500+ yards and 25+ TDs every year, and even at his 5th-round ADP, he should probably be above Fitz. We know he will give owners at least 3, maybe 5 weeks where he finishes top-five, and with Pitts replacing Julio, one could argue his team actually upgraded his pass catchers.

It’s just that his upside is so limited, and his outcome so predictable. I’d rather roll the dice with Fitz and take a WR or RB in round five before they dry up.

QB2 Targets #5/6: Justin Fields and Trey Lance

Credit: NBC Sports

These guys are basically identical in skill sets, situations, coaches being dumbasses and trying to ignore reality, and season outlook. Both Shanahan and Nagy are desperately trying to avoid the glaringly obvious: these guys are ready to start week 1, and they are not going to do their teams (or their careers) any favors by starting the veterans.

Dalton, while serviceable, is long past his prime, and Jimmy G just never really became that good. The coachspeak is still going strong, and unfortunately I think both of these guys will miss the first few games of the season in the name of pure obstinance. But both are available in round 8, and once they hit the field, I like both better as weekly plays than Lawrence.

If you can tolerate a less-than ideal QB2 the first few weeks (like Goff, available in round 12-13), then targeting one of these guys in the 8th isn’t a bad strategy.

QB2 Target #7: Trevor Lawrence

Credit: ESPN

Speaking of guys you don’t want to root for, there’s Trevor staring at you in round 5. Personally I won’t be drafting him because if I’m going to pay that price, I’d rather just take someone boring and predictable like Ryan than risk going through the inevitable rookie jitters the first few weeks.

But since he is always compared to Andrew Luck, let’s just assume he does something akin to Luck’s rookie year: about 4300 yards, around 23 TDs, and 18 INTs. Good, but not great QB2 numbers.

The Rest

Tua is not a terrible pick in round 6, but I want more than just a shot at mediocrity for that level of investment. Derek Carr and Sam Darnold in the ninth are decent warm bodies to fill the slot, but brutally uninspiring. After that, the only ones worth consideration are pairing Cam with Mac Jones, but only if you have bench spots to burn. If not it’s a good situation to avoid as neither one will perform great when they do start. Probably the best of the rest is Roethlisberger in round 7, but as previously stated I think I would rather roll with Fields or Lance and take my early-season lumps.

2021 Schedule Impact on Rookie QBs

When rookie QBs figure into your draft plans, as they should in 2QB leagues, it’s worth a brief look at how strength of schedule will impact those players.

Most will correctly cite that strength of schedule should not have a huge impact on your draft, even in redraft. After all, playing against teams that consistently score enough to win games usually benefits fantasy players. Higher scores mean more shootouts, or garbage time which while more risky can pose more fantasy reward as defenses switch to prevent and give up yards in chunks.

However, when rookie QBs figure into your draft plans, as they should in 2QB leagues, it’s worth a brief look at how it will impact those players.

Bears

The Bears come in at the 9th hardest schedule in the league and start off against the LA Rams ferocious pass rush. Since Dalton has been named the week 1 starter, this schedule will likely play to Fields’s advantage in terms of taking over the team.

However Fields’s owners need to beware of a brutal stretch in the middle of the season where the Bears take on the Bucs, 49ers, Steelers, and Ravens coming out of their November 15th bye. Expect Fields to struggle during this stretch.

Patriots

The Pats get the 12th hardest schedule which puts them solidly in the middle, but on the harsher side of the fence. They don’t have a murderer’s row of defenses like the Bears do, but face teams that can put up some serious points, which bodes well for whichever QB gets the job.

I don’t expect Cam to lose the job because he is getting picked apart by secondaries or shut down by the pass rush (with the exception of the Bucs on October 3rd). I expect Cam to lose the job because he’s just not that great of a passer and Jones is simply a better fit for the offense that New England has run for the better part of the past 20 years.

If Jones gets the reigns after week 5 he has a very favorable schedule for fantasy success, starting against the Texans followed by the Cowboys and the Jets. I can’t really think of three teams more conducive to rookie success at QB.

Jets

Zach Wilson is basically unchallenged for the starting role, so the easier the better as there is no one ahead of him. The Jets have the 20th hardest schedule, but Wilson does face some tough defenses out of the gate with the Pats in week 2 and what should be a much improved Broncos defense in week 3.

I expect the first half of the season to be rough for Wilson which means he could be a better WW or mid-season trade target than a draft target. I like his upside after the second tilt against the Pats October 24, with only the Colts and Bucs looking like tough matchups from there on out.

Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence, head coach shenanigans aside, is the only rookie signal caller other than Wilson without even a modicum of competition for the job. Therefore, the Jaguars’ 24th-toughest schedule works in his favor.

Trevor gets to make his NFL debut against the Texans, who have all the appearances of being the worst team in the league on both sides of the ball. They have jettisoned talent all over the organization and are now left with no quarterback, no running game, no receivers to speak of, and lack a single name of import on the defensive side of the ball.

Games against the Colts, Niners, Rams and Colts will be tough (he faces the Colts again in week 18 but that shouldn’t matter for fantasy) but overall the schedule is good news for his rookie progress.

49ers

The Niners have the easiest schedule in the league, which is the worst news for those hoping for significant production out of Lance this season.

Even with mediocre play, Jimmy G should be able to keep his squad above .500 and thus in the postseason hunt, which is likely going to keep Lance on the sideline. They don’t play a serious defense until October 24 against the Colts, and shouldn’t even face a serious challenge (assuming Rodgers doesn’t play) until October 10th against the Cardinals.

They could conceivably go into that week 4-0, which means even if Garropolo goes into the bye with a loss, the team is still 4-1 and well positioned for a postseason run. That doesn’t scream “go with the totally untested rookie” to me.

Even if they drop their next 3 against the Colts, Bears, and Cardinals, it would be unwise to make Lance’s first NFL start against the Rams and what should be the best defense in the NFL. Which makes November 21st against the Jags Lance’s likely first game as a starter if he doesn’t win the job in camp.

Bonus: Eagles and Dolphins

Former teammates Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa both get the benefit of easy schedules (25th and 27th respectively) in their sophomore campaigns. Truth is, neither seemed fully NFL ready in their rookie years, though Hurts was able to use his legs to salvage poor passing performances.

Tua is not so lucky. He is closer to Aaron Rodgers as a runner than Lamar Jackson, so he needs some leaky secondaries to build his confidence and refine his game. Unfortunately he won’t get it early, facing the Colts, Bucs, and Pats in his first five games.

Hurts has an easier runway, with only the Niners defense looming large in the first five weeks, which will buy him much needed time to acclimate to the speed of the game and get better at reads. Hurts is currently going as QB12ish due to his rushing floor, and Tua is going around QB21.

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