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Superflex QB Sit/Start Week 14

UPDATE: Mike Williams is on the COVID list which bumps Herbert down.

Last week I predicted Mahomes would come roaring out of the bye and put up the type of performance we have all come to know, love, and expect from the unquestioned first QB off the board. Obviously I was pretty off. Mahomes finished with just 184 yards and no touchdowns, which put him behind names like Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton, and Taylor Heinicke.

However I feel pretty good about my #2 pick Brady (QB2, 368-4) and #3 pick Kyler Murray (QB1, 123-2, 59-2). Stafford, my QB4 finished as QB5 with 295-3, beaten out by Taysom HIll with 264-2, 101.

This is the last week before the playoffs begin, so getting things right this week is crucial. Let’s take a closer look at our QB Sit/Start decisions for Superflex leagues in week 14.

Obvious QB1 Starts

Dak Prescott vs WFT: WFT is #1 in fantasy points per game allowed to QBs on the year, and while they have improved to middle of the pack since week 8, I still have a feeling this is Dak’s week to finish as QB1. Cooper should be fully healthy and Gallup is back, and the running game just isn’t getting it done, at least as long as the Cowboys keep feeding Zeke.

Josh Allen vs the Bucs: After enduring the wind bowl, Josh gets sunny Tampa and their middle of the pack pass defense. I think an offensive explosion on both sides of the ball is called for after we watched 1950s football in the wind bowl.

Aaron Rodgers vs the Bears: This game is in Lambeau and Rodgers does just own the Bears. He’s 21-5 against the Bears, who are at the bottom of the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Rodgers is on a hot streak, cresting 300 yards and throwing 6 TDs in his last two starts. He makes a fantastic start this week.

Lamar Jackson vs the Browns: His last outing against the Browns wasn’t great (46.5 QBR due to 4 picks) but he righted the ship against Pittsburg and his rushing floor dictates he shouldn’t be much lower than this. Strong start this week.

Kyler Murray vs the Rams: While the Rams are not the defensive stalwart we once thought, they are a much tougher matchup than Chicago. I’d expect more passing from Murray as this game figures to be down to the wire. Maybe one rushing TD but certainly not two.

Tom Brady vs the Bills: The Bills are still one of the toughest defenses in the league and especially hard on quarterbacks. Maybe that had something to do with Mac Jones’s 3 pass attempts on Monday night. I think Brady will have a good game and is a mid-QB1 start this week, but nothing close to last week.

Mathew Stafford vs the Cardinals: Stafford will need several good streaks to match this ranking. Odell clearly is not adding much to this offense and I think Stafford and McVay have realized that force-feeding him targets is not really helping the team. I think another outing of 270-310 yards and 3 touchdowns seems right.

Taysom Hill vs the Jets: I probably have Hill too low again given that he’s going to be running all over the Jets, but his hand injury worries me for his passing output. Very strong start.

Patrick Mahomes vs the Raiders: Mahomes has simply put too much great play on tape to not call him an automatic QB1 start. However, very little of that tape will feature 2021. I feel like another explosion is inevitable, but fear it may not come in time for his owners banking on his greatness for a playoff berth. 230-2 seems about right, which will probably be good for QB10 as long as he sprinkles in a few runs.

Joe Burrow vs the 49ers: If not for a mind-boggling tipped ball interception from Chase, Burrow would have had another 50 yards and a TD added to his 300-1-2 line. One of these weeks it’s going to all pull together for Burrow, but I’m not sure it’s this week. I still think he’s a solid low-end QB1 and a fantastic QB2 if you’re lucky enough to have him and one of the guys above.

Justin Herbert vs the Giants: He’s riding high after a QB3 finish and faces the Giants who have no offense and very little defense. But he’s now most likely without his top two wideouts in Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. He still has his tight ends and Ekeler and Jalen Guyton, but this hurts his prospects significantly.

Russell Wilson vs the Texans: Believe it or not the Texans are giving up the fourth fewest fantasy points to QBs since week 9. Not sure why this is, probably because they put up so little fight that most teams can just run out the clock starting in the third quarter. With Davis Mills back under center things should improve for the Texans a little, and Wilson is improving albeit slowly. If this is finally the week they feature Metcalf, he could end up much higher.

Solid QB2 Starts

Jimmy G vs the Bengals

The Bengals defense is floundering especially against the pass. And Jimmy has been playing better ball than you think lately. Always dealing with a changing cast of characters, Jimmy focused on his best receiver in Kittle and put up 299-2-2.

I like Jimmy as a strong QB2 this week and based on the day Herbert had, I don’t think the Bengals constitute a huge upgrade in terms of defensive opponent.

Kirk Cousins vs the Steelers

Cousins is about as all over the place, literally. He lined up behind a guard against the 49ers.

Still, in five of his 12 games he has gone for over 300 yards passing, and has four games with 3 TDs. You can’t count him out as a high-end QB2, even on a Thursday night game. The Steelers defense is nothing special, so start with confidence as long as you don’t have two of the QBs listed above.

Derek Carr vs the Chiefs

Normally one would start any viable QB against Mahomes simply out of anticipation of a shoot-out, and Carr is good at those. However, Mahomes is not producing the offense he once did and the Chiefs are actually one of the better defenses in the league, ranking fifth against opposing QBs the since week 8. I don’t have the faith in Carr that I once did, but he’s still a solid QB2 start this week.

Taylor Heinicke vs the Cowboys

This kid needs a nickname, like Headband Johnny or Mr. Fantastic. For now I’m just going to go with Rudy. The kid has plus athleticism and always seems to play above his God-given ability, which is somewhere around the Case Keenum range. Anyway, as good as the Cowboys have been on defense, they actually rank 16th in fantasy points allowed to QBs, so there’s good reason for having Heinicke listed as a solid QB2 start.

Questionable QB2 Starts

Justin Fields vs the Packers

A) it’s the Packers. They just destroy the Bears. B) We don’t know to what degree he is healed from his rib injury. C) Allen Robinson has seemingly played his last down for the Bears and I can’t blame him. But one would hope, emphasis on hope, that faced with a matchup they are almost certain to lose, that Nagy completely takes the reins off and lets Fields use his legs and his cannon of an arm. Mooney can burn the Packers defense, and Kmet has come a long way this season. Fields averaged 7.2 ypc against the Packers in October. Let’s hope he sees way more than the 6 carries he saw then. I’d start Fields against most options at the Superflex unless you have someone like Elijah Moore in that spot.

Ryan Tannehill vs the Jaguars

In his last matchup with the Jags he posted a 108 QBR but only 197 yards passing. Since then Tannehill has been all over the map, and he’s down to some pretty bad options surrounding him. Julio might be back this week, might not (they did activate him off IR). I wouldn’t trust Tannehill for more than about 210-1-2 and if that is good enough to start for your team start away. If you need more I would look at other options.

Teddy Bridgewater vs the Saints

Is there a player more boring than Teddy? I don’t think so. You’re practically guaranteed something between 200-250 yards and maybe a score. He plays Detroit who should be good for some easy points but they may have a fire lit under them after their first win. Not a great start but likely better than most flex options at other positions.

Zach Wilson vs the Saints

The burgeoning connection with Elijah Moore is great news for Wilson and his owners. He’s still, at best, a barely startable QB, BUT the Saints are ranked dead last over the past five weeks in fpa to QBs. So he’s a hold your nose start this week.

Abandon All Hope, Ye Who Start These QBs

Gentle Ben vs the Vikings: 🤢 🤮

Baker Mayfield vs the Ravens: 🤕

Jared Goff vs the Broncos: 😂

Matt Ryan vs the Panthers: 🥶

Trevor Lawrence vs the Titans: 😭

Davis Mills vs the Seahawks: 🦒

Cam Newton vs the Falcons: 🤡

Jake Fromm vs the Chargers: 👶🏻

Superflex QB Sit/Start Week 13

Week 12 had only a few surprises in terms of QB finishes. Wentz cracked the top 5 with 306 yards and three touchdowns against the Bucs. Mac Jones broke form and delivered a great fantasy day against Tennessee, posting 310 yards and two touchdowns with no picks. And Trevor Lawrence came in at QB10 with 228-1 passing with a pick and 5-39 rushing.

Lamar Jackson disappointed with four picks to go along with 165-1 passing and 17-68 rushing. Brady fell flat as well finishing as QB20 with only 226-1-1 passing as Leonard Fournette put the team on his back with four touchdowns.

Week 13 is shaping up as a great week for DSTs, with New England’s torrid defense neutralizing a top-five QB in Josh Allen, but there are some great starts, beginning with Patrick Mahomes at QB1 for week 13. Check out our superflex QB sit/start for the week.

Obvious QB1 Starts

Patrick Mahomes vs the Broncos: Denver finds themselves in the bottom half of the league in opponent passing yards per game, and you have to think the Mahomes we will see coming out of the bye is closer to week 10 than week 11.

Tom Brady vs the Falcons: The last time these two teams faced off Brady threw five TDs. The Falcons have gotten appreciably worse since that week 2 game. The only risk to Brady’s production is the total ineptitude of the Falcons offense, which may lead to a heavy dose of Fournette in the second half.

Kyler Murray vs the Bears: Murray gets his first game back in Chicago against the Bears, who are giving up 226 ypg to opposing passers at home this year. They’ve been better recently, but those games came against Detroit, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. Kyler should be more than ready to go after the bye and he gets Hopkins back as well.

Matthew Stafford vs the Jaguars: There’s no question that Stafford is off on his throws some of the time, but he managed to overcome that last week for 302 yards and 3 touchdowns. The connection with OBJ was established even though there were several misses. The Jags have played well against opposing QBs but lately those are names like Matt Ryan, Jimmy Garoppolo and Carson Wentz. They did shut down Josh Allen in week 9, so they still may not be the pushover Stafford owners are hoping for. Still I think Stafford hits his rhythm at some point and posts a big game.

Lamar Jackson vs the Steelers: Lamar has not been great lately, but the Steelers couldn’t stop anything through the air or on the ground against the Bengals. That bodes well for Lamar’s output, which I think includes two passing scores and one rushing score.

Josh Allen vs the Patriots: Tough to have him this low after last week, but this Patriot defense is going HAM right now and I can see them completely shutting down Buffalo. Like 13 points shutting them down. Allen is too good to have any lower as he does possess the ability to beat a really good defense on his best day, but this will have to be his best day.

Dak Prescott vs the Saints: Dak has been crazy inconsistent this year. But his peak games are week-winners, like his 375-2 game last week, or his 445-3 game week 6, or his 403-3 game week 1. New Orleans is keeping opponents under 200 yards passing their last three, but allowing 250 on the year. I don’t think we see a peak game as I expect New Orleans to run the ball effectively and control clock, but I think 275-3 is well within a reasonable range of outcomes.

Justin Herbert vs the Bengals: 3 out of his last 4 games he has gone over 300 yards, and Cincy is in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed. With both offenses firing, expect a high-scoring game (over/under set at 50.5) and Herbert to be the primary beneficiary.

Kirk Cousins vs the Lions: Andy Dalton just dropped 300 passing on the Lions. Cousins should shred them especially without Dalvin Cook doing so much damage on the ground. 320-3 seems completely reasonable.

Joe Burrow vs the Chargers: The primary danger to Burrow’s value rest of season is the quality of the opponent and Joe Mixon. Mixon is having a career year due to Cincy’s overwhelming presence to lean on the ground game whenever possible. The Chargers are top five against the pass on the year but in the bottom half of the league their last three. Also their run defense has stiffened as of late, dropping to just 3.6 ypc allowed vs the 4.7 average over the year. Those games came against Denver, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota, so a mix of great running backs and mediocre to decent passing. There’s reason to believe that the Chargers keep this game very close, and Cincinnati will find itself behind at some point. All that bodes well for an up week for Burrow.

Derek Carr vs the WFT: Carr has not been great his last three but showed out against Dallas on Thanksgiving, and that’s not an easy defense to drop 373 on. WFT, however, is, so expect Carr to get back to his high-yardage totals against them in what should be a close matchup.

Tua Tagovailoa vs the Giants: Tua had a crazy efficient day vs Carolina, with 27 completions against just 4 incompletions and no picks. It wasn’t the best fantasy day, but Carolina remains a competent defense, and though the Giants almost shut out the Eagles, I think we have to chalk that up to a meltdown game from Hurts, as they are middle of the pack in passing yardage allowed on the year. I expect a slightly more productive fantasy day for Tua, something like 275-2.

QB Starts with Some Risk

Jalen Hurts vs the Jets

So obviously the opponent is not the concern here. Hurts is supposedly running on a bum wheel and if Hurts can’t run effectively, what is he? A terrible quarterback. He was a terrible quarterback last week and didn’t go into it with a bum ankle. How bad?

Sub 50% completions, no touchdowns, 3 picks, just bad bad bad. And that was against the Giants. Now, as I wrote in my column asking if he is actually good at football, Hurts is going to require some patience, just like Lamar did. The primary difference between them as young players is the Ws and Ls, where Hurts is falling way short. While it’s hard to bench him against the Jets, if I had two players from the above I wouldn’t hesitate. It all depends on how well he can move.

Taysom Hill vs the Cowboys

I wouldn’t bench Hill for inferior options, but even with his rushing ability I would hesitate to expect too much in his first game against Dallas. He should have a good rushing floor, but with Kamara out and no one to fear in the receiver ranks, wouldn’t it be smart to spy Hill the whole game to limit that rushing ability. Dare the kid to beat you with his arm? Seems like that is exactly what Quinn is going to do which could be disastrous, could be ok. HIll has shown some promise as a passer, but it isn’t his strength. The range of outcomes here is super wide, but he’s a start over the options below.

Mac Jones vs the Bills

Jones finally pulled together a fantasy-worthy game against Tennessee. 310 yards, two touchdowns, no picks. Good for a QB7 finish.

And now he gets the Bills. The Bills are second in the league in passing yards allowed, and second in yards per rushing attempt allowed. They have softened against the run a bit, and I’m sure Belichik is counting on his defense to win this one. I don’t think Jones will be able to repeat last week as he sees fewer passing attempts. Still a good QB2 start, but won’t finish anywhere near the top ten this week.

Carson Wentz vs the Texans

It’s Carson Wentz, but it’s also the Texans. Even Zach Wilson beats the Texans. He won’t have another top-five finish this week but 250-2 seems about right.

Taylor Heinicke vs the Raiders

RUDY!!!!! You gotta love this kid, no talent, all heart. I think he manages a decent game against a soft defense, but he’s low-end QB2 material in superflex. Temper expectations, but his rushing floor is enough to make him good for about QB17.

Russell Wilson vs the 49ers

Russ managed a decent game despite what was a pitiful effort in real life. Something is wrong with him. He’s sailing passes over his target’s heads and totally ignoring DK Metcalf. He’s not running enough to overcome his lack of accuracy and Carrol’s allergic reaction to risk. I don’t see a top-15 finish this week for Russ against a 49ers team that is built to control the clock and beat you on the ground.

QBs to Bench for Better Options

Andy Dalton vs the Cardinals: Unlikely to string two good games together against the Cards.

Jimmy Garoppolo vs the Seahawks: Barely a part of the offense most weeks, pretty much the definition of a game manager.

Tryod Taylor vs the Colts: Another really tough matchup, and honestly I don’t see why Tyrod is starting. He’s obviously not a starter at this point in his career. Mills at least might be.

Teddy Bridgewater vs the Chiefs: Another caretaker against another really tough defense, and he’s injured as well.

Matt Ryan vs the Bucs: There are no quicker ways to age yourself than watching Matt Ryan play football.

Trevor Lawrence vs the Rams: Doing better but I don’t want Meyer’s play-calling setting him up against Von Miller and Aaron Donald.

Ben Roethlisberger vs the Ravens: No.

Jared Goff vs Anyone, but the Vikings this week: Double no.

Zach Wilson vs the Eagles: God help you.

Mike Glennon vs the Dolphins: Start anyone else, a third string tight end, anything.

Superflex QB Sit/Start Week 9

Teams on Bye: Seahawks, Bucs, Lions, WFT

Week 8 is proving to be more brutal than ever. First off I want to recognize the loss of the family of the girl that died in the crash with Henry Ruggs, and also the loss Ruggs is experiencing despite the carelessness of his actions. Nothing is worth the risk of getting behind the wheel intoxicated.

Going into week 9, owners are now without Aaron Rodgers because of COVID (guess that alternative treatment didn’t quite work) and according to @JayGlazer Kyler Murray is experiencing a legitimate ankle sprain following last week’s game, and could miss this week and possibly more.

We had already said goodbye to Jameis Winston and are still waiting on official word if Taysom Hill will start, but he’s trending in the right direction according to his head coach.

Obvious QB1 Starts Week 9

Matthew Stafford vs the Titans: QB6 finish last week despite only playing 3 quarters, Stafford is playing some of the best ball in the league. The Titans are bottom ten in the league in passing yards allowed.

Josh Allen at the Jaguars: Jacksonville is stiffening against the pass the last three weeks, allowing only 232 passing yards per game, so Allen is only no 2 this week.

Lamar Jackson vs the Vikings: The Vikings barely stood up to the passing attack of Cooper Rush last week. No reason to think Lamar isn’t top three this week.

Dak Prescott vs the Broncos: Check practice reports to ensure he’s good to go but given that he was a game-time decision last week, should be fine. Fire up as QB4.

Joe Burrow vs the Browns: Three straight games with 3 TDs, QBR north of 100, Burrow is playing at a very high level. Still no rushing floor.

Patrick Mahomes II vs Green Bay: Mahomes won’t be facing Rodgers so might not have reason to chuck it, and frankly something is off. Not sure if its practice reps being too easy or Reid losing an edge, but his throws were almost all off last week.

Derek Carr at the Giants: Losing Ruggs hurts but still think Carr is good for 300+ and 2 TDs.

Justin Herbert at the Eagles: Somebody get this kid some strawberries. Two straight duds, maybe the Eagles bottom 8 pass D can help get him back on track.

Kirk Cousins at the Ravens: Cousins has been maddeningly inconsistent but should be good for top 10 numbers in a week with a lot of QBs out.

Tua Tagovaioloa vs the Texans: QBs do kinda well against the Texans. 4th worst in FPA to QBs. With the trade pressure off at least for now, Tua should be back to his fantasy-winning ways.

Jalen Hurts vs the Chargers: We really didn’t learn anything about Hurts last week. The Chargers will tell us a lot about his future. Chargers are top ten against QBs and have shut down running quarterbacks.

Ryan Tannehill at the Rams: Tannehill is without Henry and facing a newly strengthened Rams pass rush. Should be a rough game but garbage time will save his fantasy day.

Questionable QB2 Starts Week 9

Taysom Hill vs the Falcons

All we have to go on is last year, and it sounds like there is a chance that he won’t be able to suit up. But I’m planning on him starting. In his two games against the Falcons he passed for 230+ and had 49-2 and 83-0. Should be good for this week as the Falcons defense has not improved since last year. Probably the best of the QB2s available this week. Start with confidence.

Mike White at the Colts

I covered this in my WW column this week but White took the underneath stuff Cincy was giving him and had a lot of success. Check the chart:

I really can’t see any reason to put this guy any lower. You can’t just accidentally throw for 405 yards and 3 TDs. I can see regression to about 250 and 2 but that’s the floor. 300 and 3 is attainable but the Colts are only giving up 215 yards through their last 3, allow the 12th-most fantasy points to QBs on the season.

Daniel Jones vs the Raiders

Jones just isn’t pulling it together with any regularity. A player that seems to possess all the potential in the world, this is Jones’s third season delivering uneven results.

The Raiders are top ten in the league against the pass in their past three in passing yards allowed and sacks per game, and in the top half in completion percentage. Don’t expect big things from Jones this week, or ever.

Mac Jones at the Panthers

Jones has been less than thrilling as a fantasy option this year. So boring in fact he didn’t even merit a throw chart for week 8. His rating went into the toilet (70.9) as he managed only a 51% completion for a meager 218 yards and no scores. But that was against the Chargers, and Carolina is allowing a 70+ completion percentage to opposing QBs over their last three.

Teddy Bridgewater at the Cowboys

Teddy has been more consistent with previous versions of himself, underwhelming and staying conservative. Likely won’t change against the ascendant Cowboys defense, even though they have softened a bit in their last three. They held Kirk Cousins to under 200 yards passing, I think they will easily be able to do the same to Teddy.

Matt Ryan at the Saints

Ryan came crashing back to earth after a really promising game in week 7 after his bye. He had a 5.4 YPA with only 146 yards on 27 attempts. Some think that Ridley’s late announcement left them scrambling, but the problem that really reared its head is Ryan being scared to throw into the tight coverage surrounding Pitts. Still Pitts didn’t do Ryan any favors catching only 2 of 6 targets. The Saints are currently second in pass completion percentage allowed over their past three, so despite the rivalry this is not a get right spot for Ryan, but I do expect a better outing than last week, like 250 and 2 TDs.

Desperation Plays at QB Week 9

Tyrod Taylor at the Dolphins: Very risky play in his first game back.

Jimmy G vs the Cardinals: Don’t chase points and the Cards are likely without Murray. Probably won on the ground.

Baker Mayfield at the Bengals: Not in great shape and very few skills players to rely on, but should be forced to throw by Bengals offense.

Justin Fields at the Steelers: Not a recommended play, the Steelers are sack machines and TJ Watt will have a field day.

Carson Wentz vs the Jets: No longer looking like a cakewalk, and Wentz sucks.

Gentle Ben vs the Bears: Just can’t trust him…arm is shot.

Avoid at All Costs QBs Week 9

Trevor Lawrence vs the Bills: Not with this coach, not against the Bills. No sir.

Sam Darnold vs the Patriots: Belichik is not going to know how to game plan because literally nothing is working for the Panthers right now.

Jordan Love at the Chiefs: Rookie QB who looked terrible in preseason at Arrowhead in his first game as a starter…no.

Colt McCoy at the Niners: You know, I could see him Mike White-ing the Niners, but the floor is literally 65 yards and 18 sacks.