Running Back Rankings Week 10

Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End

So week 9 wasn’t quite as big of a 🤯 at running back as it was at quarterback and wide receiver, but you still need your running back rankings.

James Conner did lead off all running backs with his huge game, and we had a Nyheim Hines sighting in the top ten, but other than that things were fairly chalk, with Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, Mixon, Kamara, Patterson all making top ten appearances.

The Tennessee running back situation proved to be a morass that killed the value of all involved, as Tennessee surprisingly had a very positive game script against the Rams with virtually no players on that team having a good fantasy day unless we are talking IDPs. I don’t see a ton of value there but if there is any it’s likely McNichols. Just not very exciting options.

And OF COURSE after Stevenson has a breakout game for the Patriots he immediately enters the concussion protocol. There will never be any figuring out the Pats backfield. Probably a Bolden game this week.

If you haven’t read up on Cook’s situation you probably should. Best source is Drew Davenport from Footballguys.com.

Without further ado, let’s get to the rankings.

Running Back Rankings Week 10

NameOppNotes
Najee Harrisvs DETSmash spot
Jonathan Taylorvs JACJAC 3.7 ypr in last three
Christian McCaffrey@ ARIonly 49% off snaps first game back
Austin Ekelervs MIN
Dalvin Cook@ LACDynasty owners beware, should be good for 21
Ezekiel Elliottvs ATL
Aaron Jonesvs SEASEA no longer a pushover against the run
Cordarrelle Patterson@ DALGordon and Williams had great games against them
James Connervs CARCarolina no slouch allowing 3.7 ypr
Darrell Henderson Jr.@ SF
Alvin Kamara@ TENRumors abound he is banged up
D'Andre Swift@ PIT
Elijah Mitchellvs LAR
Nick Chubb@ NECOVID may not play
Josh Jacobsvs KCActually had good ypc avg
Javonte Williamsvs PHIGot run week 9 and it worked
Leonard Fournette@ WAS
James Robinson@ IND
Melvin Gordon IIIvs PHI
Damien Harrisvs CLEConcussion
Darrel Williams@ LVCEH could be back this week
Michael Cartervs BUFWhite back = targets
Devonta Freeman@ MIA
Devin Singletary@ NYJ
Alex Collins@ GB
J.D. McKissicvs TB
Zack Moss@ NYJJust needs to clear protocol
Jordan Howard@ DENGetting it done
Antonio Gibsonvs TBplaying hurt
Myles Gaskinvs BAL
AJ Dillonvs SEA
Nyheim Hinesvs JAC
Kenyan Drakevs KC
Boston Scott@ DEN
Jeremy McNicholsvs NO
Brandon Boldenvs CLEHarris and Stevenson likely out
Jamaal Williams@ PIT
Mark Ingram II@ TENBack to the old ways
Carlos Hyde@ IND
Ty Johnsonvs BUF
Adrian Petersonvs NO
Mike Davis@ DAL
Chuba Hubbard@ ARI
Tony Pollardvs ATL
D'Ernest Johnson@ NE
Kenneth Gainwell@ DEN
Sony Michel@ SF
Eno Benjaminvs CAR
Jaret Pattersonvs TB
Chris Carson@ GB
Ronald Jones II@ WAS
Alexander Mattison@ LAC
Giovani Bernard@ WAS
Jeff Wilson Jr.vs LAR
Le'Veon Bell@ MIA
Salvon Ahmedvs BAL
Derrick Gore@ LV
JaMycal Hastyvs LAR
Jerick McKinnon@ LV
Rhamondre Stevensonvs CLEConcussed
Ameer Abdullah@ ARI
D'Onta Foremanvs NO
Ty'Son Williams@ MIA
Kyle Juszczykvs LAR
Jalen Richardvs KC
Devine Ozigbo@ IND
Anthony McFarland Jr.vs DET
La'Mical Perinevs BUF
Larry Rountree IIIvs MIN
Alex Armah Jr.@ TEN
C.J. Ham@ LAC
Jakob Johnsonvs CLE
Alec Ingoldvs KC
Rashaad Penny@ GB
Joshua Kelleyvs MIN
Patrick Ricard@ MIA
Travis Homer@ GB
Tevin Colemanvs BUF
Jermar Jefferson@ PIT
DeeJay Dallas@ GB
Patrick Lairdvs BAL
Dare Ogunbowale@ IND
Benny Snell Jr.vs DET
Kalen Ballagevs DET
Marlon Mackvs JAC
Justin Jacksonvs MIN
Wayne Gallman Jr.@ DAL
Demetric Felton@ NE
Latavius Murray@ MIA

Superflex Quarterback Rankings Week 10

Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End

Every week I do an in-depth QB sit/start article which you can get here, but if you are just looking for rankings without commentary, here it is.

Superflex Quarterback Rankings Week 10

NameOpp
Lamar Jackson@ MIA
Josh Allen@ NYJ
Tom Brady@ WAS
Justin Herbertvs MIN
Matthew Stafford@ SF
Kyler Murrayvs CAR
Derek Carrvs KC
Patrick Mahomes II@ LV
Russell Wilson@ GB
Jalen Hurts@ DEN
Carson Wentzvs JAC
Dak Prescottvs ATL
Matt Ryan@ DAL
Teddy Bridgewatervs PHI
Kirk Cousins@ LAC
Mike Whitevs BUF
Ryan Tannehillvs NO
Jimmy Garoppolovs LAR
Baker Mayfield@ NE
Taylor Heinickevs TB
Tua Tagovailoavs BAL
Jared Goff@ PIT
Ben Roethlisbergervs DET
Mac Jonesvs CLE
P.J. Walker@ ARI
Trevor Lawrence@ IND
Trevor Siemian@ TEN
Sam Darnold@ ARI
Taysom Hill@ TEN
Jacoby Brissettvs BAL
Geno Smith@ GB
Colt McCoyvs CAR
Trey Lancevs LAR
Jordan Lovevs SEA
Aaron Rodgersvs SEA

Superflex QB Sit/Start Week 10

After week 9 I’m not going to even pretend I know what’s going on any more. Here are the top five scoring QBs from week 9 in order: Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Matt Ryan, Josh Johnson, and Carson Wentz. Josh Allen was 20th. Patrick Mahomes was 22nd and Joe Burrow was 23rd. All three finished behind Jordan Love in his first career start.

Anyone who says they saw week 9 coming is completely full of it. Show me one guy who had Josh Johnson in their top five and Josh Allen out of the top ten (against the Jaguars!)

Weeks like week 9 should cause all of us to start examining our assumptions, not about individual players necessarily, but about the point of even trying to prognosticate this stuff. And maybe some individual players, like Mahomes and potentially Burrow.

Looking into the EPA+CPOE composite scores of weeks 4-8, there was definitely some warning on Mahomes, but not so much on Allen, Stafford, or Burrow, who both cratered in week 9 against middling opponents. Ryan and Wentz, who both finished top-five against good and bad defenses respectively, were both in the top ten of this metric weeks 4-8.

PlayerEPA+CPOE composite
1M.Stafford0.199
2J.Allen0.194
3T.Brady0.166
4R.Tannehill0.165
5K.Murray0.161
6J.Burrow0.155
7Aa.Rodgers0.151
8M.Ryan0.150
9M.Jones0.138
10C.Wentz0.133
11L.Jackson0.130
12T.Tagovailoa0.120
13D.Carr0.110
14P.Mahomes0.108
15T.Bridgewater0.098
16J.Hurts0.072
17B.Roethlisberger0.066
18T.Lawrence0.065
19K.Cousins0.051
20J.Fields0.051
21B.Mayfield0.032
22D.Mills0.031
23T.Heinicke0.027
24J.Goff0.023
25J.Herbert0.023
26D.Jones0.022
27S.Darnold-0.025

If we take a look at a smaller sample of weeks 6-8, we see Stafford stay at the top, Allen slip a little, Burrow move up, Ryan and Wentz crater (after all, Ryan had a disastrous week 8 and Wentz is always inconsistent), and Mahomes stay right around the middle of the league.

PlayerEPA+CPOE composite
1M.Stafford0.234
2R.Tannehill0.217
3J.Allen0.180
4Aa.Rodgers0.159
5J.Burrow0.152
6T.Brady0.149
7K.Murray0.141
8M.White0.125
9T.Bridgewater0.123
10T.Tagovailoa0.120
11M.Jones0.103
12K.Cousins0.096
13G.Smith0.087
14P.Mahomes0.071
15B.Roethlisberger0.067
16J.Hurts0.061
17C.Wentz0.059
18M.Ryan0.056
19D.Mills0.039
20J.Fields0.037
21J.Goff0.024
22T.Lawrence0.020
23T.Heinicke0.010
24L.Jackson0.009
25D.Jones0.001
26J.Herbert-0.052
27S.Darnold-0.054

So other than Mahomes, there really weren’t any major warning flags on these players who unexpectedly delivered duds week 9 against lesser opponents. I do believe that the Titans and Jaguars defenses have improved some, but they did not all the sudden become world-beaters overnight. Week 9 unusually high variance on quarterbacks and pass-catchers was likely just that, an unusually high variance. So the best thing is not to overreact to this and expect a basic regression to the mean here. After all, do we really expect Colt McCoy, Baker Mayfield and Matt Ryan to dominate the position for the rest of the season as they did in week 9?

Obvious QB1 Starts in Superflex

Lamar Jackson vs the Dolphins: No reason not to put him at the top spot this week given his rushing floor is elevating every week. The Dolphins defense is nothing to be scared of.

Josh Allen vs the Jets: The Jets just put Carson Wentz in the top five. Given the info above we can safely chalk up week 9 against the Jags to an aberration and confidently start Allen this week in a plus matchup.

Tom Brady vs the WFT: Absolutely no reason Tom should not continue his dominant season against this pass-funnel defense.

Justin Herbert vs the Vikings: Herbert was one of the few top-flight QBs along with Jackson to survive the week 9 purge. After a momentary dip in the standings Herbert is once again playing great ball. Minnesota is bottom 10 in passing yards allowed per game in their past three contests.

Matt Stafford vs the 49ers: Stafford should be fine following his week 9 disaster against the Titans. The Rams need to pass less and run more, which could dampen his fantasy outlook this week.

Kyler Murray vs the Panthers: Panthers have been playing great in their past three against the pass, but that has come against Daniel Jones, Matt Ryan, and Mac Jones. Fire Murray up as long as he is healthy.

Derek Carr vs the Chiefs: Carr is still throwing a ton (46 attempts last game) and just needs to find Waller in the end zone more to be a top-five QB this week. Should be doable against the Chiefs who are giving up 1.7 passing TDs in their last three, and that includes games against Jordan Love and Daniel Jones.

Questionable QB Starts in Superflex

Patrick Mahomes vs the Raiders

Yes, we have reached that point. As we saw above, Mahome’s predictive metrics have been middle of the league since week 4. He finished outside the top 20 last week. He finished outside the top 15 in week 8. He finished outside the top 20 in week 7. Something is not right. If you haven’t already notified your league that he is available for trade, it might not be too late to do so. His name recognition alone can probably net you someone like Burrow or Herbert.

Mahomes in 2021 is average, at best

Now, there is always the possibility that things just click and he gets back to his earlier season form. But there’s no denying that Mahomes over the past 5 weeks has been at or below average, which is unacceptable given his draft capital. Would I bench Mahomes for a lesser QB? No, even though I think the probability of him finishing outside the top 20 once again is about 30%. I’d put the probability of him finishing top five at about 10%. But if you somehow have Josh Allen and David Carr, yeah I would bench him until he turns things around.

Russel Wilson vs the Packers

I think Russ is a fairly safe start in his first game back from IR, but he’s not automatic. He’s not a volume passer. He plays in the most conservative, old-school offense in the league and I don’t think that will change until Carrol is shown the door. The Packers are only giving up .7 TDs in their last three. So his own offense is working against a big yardage total, and he’s playing a team that isn’t giving up passing touchdowns in big numbers. I think he’s absolutely a solid QB2 but not a slam-dunk QB1 this week.

Jalen Hurts vs the Broncos

The Jalen Hurts mystery continues. We know he’s good at fantasy football. But is he good at real football? He’s probably good enough to finish out the season as the Eagles starter. After that I think it’s fair to expect the Eagles to at least bring in healthy competition next year. He hasn’t gone for over 300 yards since week 4. He did get a QBR north of 100 last week despite a down fantasy day.

Week 9 only 17 attempts

His stats show the obvious: his team is trying to win keeping the ball on the ground and out of the air. They’ve accepted that he’s not going to be an accurate pocket passer and are embracing the run. This makes a lot of sense going against the Broncos who are giving up 5.1 ypc over their last three. A solid QB2 but unlikely to hit quality passing yardage.

Carson Wentz vs the Jaguars

God I hate to admit this but the charts don’t lie: over the past 5 weeks Wentz has been an above average QB. The Jaguars are a plus matchup giving up 71% completion rate to opposing QBs over their last three. Wentz should be a solid start again this week.

Dak Prescott vs the Falcons

Dak looked more than off last week. He looked absolutely terrible.

Dak’s Week 9 – deep ball was off

Given that he was just coming back from a calf injury, and before that a shoulder injury, and before that a season-ending ankle injury, it’s fair to wonder if the injuries are not mounting up and messing with his throwing motion, confidence, or both. Dak is another guy you might look at moving while his name recognition is still high. Prior to last week Denver looked absolutely beatable through the air, just like the Falcons do now.

Matt Ryan vs the Cowboys

Ugh, Matt Ryan. Turned in a couple good games before the bye, came back from the bye totally limp, then managed another good game while throwing two touchdowns to Zacheus. Ryan is taking what the defense gives him, and if that means ignoring Pitts and zeroing in on a no-name player he’s doing that all day. Diggs will likely play on Pitts, meaning it’s another dink and dunk day for Ryan, and it will probably be good enough for a top-15 finish.

Teddy Bridgewater vs the Eagles

Steady Teddy is back, not overwhelming, not underwhelming. Likely a safe bet against the Eagles, who are giving up 1.3 passing touchdowns in their last three. He threw for 249-1 against the Cowboys and I would expect similar numbers, possibly an extra touchdown.

Kirk Cousins vs the Chargers

The Chargers are an incredibly tough defense to pass against, so expect Dalvin Cook to shoulder most of the load here. Cousins is under 200 yards passing in his last two outings, both coming against defensively inferior opponents (Ravens and Cowboys). He’s still capable of throwing deep as evidenced last week, but there isn’t enough volume, and his intended air yards per attempt are down to 6.8 after averaging 8 last year.

Mike White vs the Bills

The only defense outperforming the Chargers against the pass are the Bills. This makes White’s third start a dicey one, but he might be the only QB on the bottom half of QB2 status who is a real threat to throw for 300+ yards. His encore was cut short last week with a forearm injury, so this will be his follow-up from his blowup game where he threw for 400+ yards. Elijah Moore’s emergence in week 9 bodes well, but owners should temper their expectations and play more established threats at the position if they have them.

Ryan Tannehill vs the Saints

Despite a decisive victory against the Rams and no Derrick Henry, Tannehill had a very subpar game with 143-1-1. Very on-script for week 9. HIs prior two games were much better, eclipsing 250 yards passing in each, but Tannehill seems to always remind us that he’s difficult to trust even as a QB2. The Saints should be a better matchup for him, averaging 270 passing yards allowed over their last 3 and giving up 332 to Matt Ryan.

Jimmy G/Trey Lance vs the Rams

Honestly I have no idea who will end up starting or finishing this game for the 49ers and we are unlikely to get any indication before Saturday. If its Jimmy G, expect low passing numbers but an efficient game. If it’s Lance, expect a decent rushing floor (like 45 yards) and multiple sacks and picks. Either way it’s a desperation play and not a recommended start.

Baker Mayfield vs the Patriots

Good for an efficient 235 and 2 most weeks, just not someone who will help win your week but not someone who will lose it either. Low-end QB2, should deliver more points than most flex options.

Taylor Heinicke vs the Bucs

The last and least of the viable QB2 options, just don’t start him thinking the Bucs are still a pushover in the passing game. Over their last three they are surrendering only 163 passing yards per game, good for second in the league.

QB Sits in Superflex

Tua/Brissett vs the Ravens: If it’s Tua he bumps up to a mid-range QB2 option but it’s not sounding promising as of Wednesday.

Goff vs the Steelers: Not a starting option even in Superflex.

Big Ben vs the Lions: Arm is cooked, same as every other week.

Mac Jones vs the Browns: The Patriots are trying to win dirty and this leads to very mediocre stat lines from Jones. If both Harris and Stevenson sit with concussions, he could be serviceable as a QB2.

PJ Walker vs the Cardinals: Going against the Cardinals pass rush is not how you want to start your NFL career.

Trevor Lawrence vs the Colts: I still have hope for this kid, but not until Meyer is fired.

Waiver Wire Week 10

Trying to get value out of the waiver wire week 10 is going to feel a lot like trying to build a house out of burnt timber. Week 9 laid waste to any idea of what the hell is going on in the NFL and left anyone trying to make sense of it feeling like this.

I mean, the Bills lost to the Jaguars 9-6. The Chiefs managed only 13 points against the Rodgers-less Packers. The Bengals got annihilated by the Browns. The Titans (!) without Derrick Henry completely shut down the Rams offense AND won the game 28-16. The Broncos absolutely manhandled the Cowboys. Tim Patrick had more fantasy points and receiving yards than CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper combined. This was the WTF week of all WTF weeks.

If you started Allen, Burrow, Stafford, Prescott, or Mahomes you likely got annihilated this week. Same with Chase, Adams, Lamb, Cooper, Hill, Samuel, Pitts, Andrews, etc etc.

So in addition to eyeing the waiver wire, you should be looking at taking advantage of owner frustration and trading for the players who severely underwhelmed this week. Unfortunately for me I already own most of them. On to the Waiver Wire for Week 10, but get those trade offers out.

Waiver Wire Quarterbacks Week 10

Justin Fields, 26% rostered, 100% FAAB

If you have anything left in your FAAB I would consider blowing it all on Fields this week. He should have had a terrible game and the Bears should have never been in this one, even though the Steelers suck. The Bears would have won this game except for an egregious taunting call late in the game, something that is already setting twitter conspiracy theories ablaze about refs betting on games. Fields is producing like a mid-level fantasy starter and with his rushing floor there is no way he should be sitting on waivers.

Trey Lance, 18% rostered, 80% FAAB

Nothing new to report here other than the Niners lost to the Cardinals (without Murray or Hopkins) and are 3-5. Their season is over and the only debate now is whether learning on the job would be good for Lance. I think it would. Expect a nice rushing floor and inconsistent passing.

Baker Mayfield, 37% rostered, 20% FAAB

Even in a blowout Mayfield couldn’t eclipse 250 yards. This team is just not built for passing. But if you are holding Daniel Jones or for some reason Sam Darnold he’s a clear improvement.

Drops: Darnold, Love, Daniel Jones

Waiver Wire Running Backs Week 10

D’Ernest Johnson, 40% rostered, 55% FAAB

News just came out Tuesday that Chubb has COVID and will need two negative tests prior to the Sunday game against New England to play. Demetric Felton also has entered the COVID protocol, meaning that if both backs miss the game D’Ernest is in for a week-winning workload.

Eno Benjamin, 1% rostered, 50% FAAB

Chase Edmonds is reportedly going to miss multiple weeks with the ankle injury that sidelined him this weekend, and Benjamin is likely to get 8-10 carries as the change of pace behind James Connor. The coach has been talking him up and he could be a multiple-week band-aid to injury ravaged running back rosters.

Jordan Howard, 15% rostered, 40% FAAB

Why not a spike game by Jordan Howard? It’s week 9, anything makes sense! 17 carries for 71 yards and a touchdown following a two touchdown game.

Jarrett Patterson, 2% rostered, 35% FAAB

The WFT is 2-6 and going nowhere, and Antonio Gibson has been playing hurt all season on a fractured shin. That is not going to get better just during a bye week, and Patterson got 11 carries to his 8 in week 8. He was my top RB pickup last week and the only reason he isn’t this week is we can’t ever count on rational coaching.

Rhamondre Stevenson, 6% rostered, 30% FAAB

If you haven’t already puked on the NE running back carousel this season it’s time to buy a ticket. Stevenson was the back who got the love last week in a run-fest and for a team that wants to win ugly, he makes a lot of sense. Therefore he will probably be a surprise inactive this week. But a better chip than most.

Drops: No one, hold onto running backs like grim death.

Waiver Wire Wide Receivers Week 10

Elijah Moore, 28% rostered, 100% FAAB

I would put Moore at the top of your queue or give him all your budget. This has been a breakout waiting to happen and as long as anyone but Zach Wilson is throwing the ball it could be for the rest of the season. Let’s face it, Wilson is already a bust. He had bust written all over him during the draft. He’s sucked all year. Two different journeyman have decisively outplayed him this year. Which means Moore should be good for the rest of the season and he has always had the talent. Top add this week.

Darnell Mooney, 44% rostered, 55% FAAB

If Fields can be trusted Mooney can too. He was involved in the running game (1 TD) and got decent targets (6-3-41-1). He has definitely achieved fantasy yo-yo status but worth a shot once again.

Donovan Peoples-Jones, 14% rostered, 15% FAAB

Really hard to trust this guy given the low passing attempts of the team and his low target share, but maybe without OBJ screwing with Mayfield’s head maybe the Browns passing game improves and maybe his targets increase. Realistically though all he will be is a deep threat receiving 2-3 deep targets a game, and he only has to catch one to be a WR3.

Drops: Nico Collins, Mecole Hardman, Jarvis Landry

Waiver Wire Tight Ends Week 10

Cole Kmet, 20% Rostered, 20% FAAB

It’s not often you can get a viable tight end in week 10 that’s more than a 1-week fill in, but Kmet appears to be just that. His chemistry with Fields has been increasing every week, and if Fields can average over 250 yards passing from here on out, Kmet should benefit weekly as there just aren’t a lot of options in Chicago. He’s seen no fewer than 6 targets his last 3 and saw 8 last week en route to 87 scoreless yards.

Evan Engram, 39% rostered, 15% FAAB

The Giants are an absolute mess but you can’t ignore a healthy target share and two touchdowns over his last two. Engram has the talent to be much more than he is, he just doesn’t have the drive or work ethic. Might be target-forced into some decent games down the stretch.

Donald Parham, 1% rostered, 10% FAAB

It’s very on-script for week 9 that Parham’s breakout game would be overshadowed by both Jared Cook and Stephen Anderson (?) but if you are desperate for a new name and would like someone with rest of season upside, he’s as good as any. Not nearly as good a bet as Kmet but potentially worth a flier.

Drops: Cook

Streaming DSTs for Week 10

Cleveland vs New England, 50% rostered, 5% FAAB

They took it to the Bengals but hell it was week 9, anything could have happened. Still, the Patriots do not have what one would call a dynamic offense and the Browns looked good Sunday.

Las Vegas vs Kansas City, 19% rostered, 5% FAAB

Yes, we have reached the point where we are targeting defenses playing KC. Vegas has been a consistently good defense all year, and they get a reeling Chiefs team at home in the Death Star. Crazy to say it, but they are a good play.

Sit Start Week 9

If you are looking for my QB sit/start I do a separate in-depth article for superflex leagues here. This is dedicated to the other skill positions.

Also, this column is by no means a ranking, or should be taken as me recommending to start the guys in the start section over the guys in the sit section. It’s instead an educated guess as to what players will outperform expectations vs guys that will underperform expectations.

I try to only place players in the start column that have at least significant question marks either due to poor performance or low capital. Similarly I put guys in the sit column that most fantasy managers would start most weeks.

With that stated let’s get into who to start and who to sit for week 9.

Running Back Starts

Nick Chubb at the Bengals

Chubb did not please many managers in his return to the lineup, scoring roughly as many fantasy points as his backfield mate D’Ernest Johnson. His ypc was low and he was kept out of the end zone. This was not an unforeseeable event as he was playing a good defense and was just returning from a calf injury. I think he improves vastly against the Bengals who just allowed Michael Carter to average 5.1 ypc on his way to 77 rushing yards and a score. Chubb will not see receiving work, that goes to Johnson, but with the Cleveland passing game I expect the Browns to lean on him and Johnson to control the clock and keep Burrow and Chase off the field.

Michael Carter at the Colts

Why not believe in the Jets? Carter thrived with Mike White under center throwing underneath routes and had 14 targets. With absolutely no model of success other than the last game, I can’t see why Saleh would try and do anything differently. Carter is on the rise and playing him, even on a short week against a decent run defense.

Derrick Gore vs the Packers

Gore should be nothing more than a flex play as he is still splitting carries with Darrell Williams, but I think he can make the most out of few opportunities with his north-south running style. He’s more effective between the tackles than Darrell Williams and I think 60 yards and a score are not unreasonable expectations.

Damien Harris at the Panthers

The Panthers have the feel of being a good defense, but they’re nothing special against the run, something the Patriots absolutely want to be key to winning games. The Panthers are allowing 4.4 ypc to opposing backs over their last three. Don’t be discouraged by their FPA status (top 10) which includes their early season dominance. Just last week Mike Davis and Cordarelle Patterson had good days against them despite only seeing 9 carries a piece.

Running Back Sits

Jeremy McNichols at the Rams

Right now we just don’t know what will come out of the Titans rushing attack without Henry. McNichols could see 15 carries, he could see 3. He should retain all passing down work, but there are too many unknowns to insert him into lineups. Bench blowups may hurt mentally but they don’t hurt your fantasy team – doughnuts do.

Zack Moss at the Jaguars

It pains me to put him here as I am starting him in my big money league and I hope I’m wrong, but his ypc has been atrocious in his last three games (3.4, 3, 2.4). He is augmenting it with receiving work, but not enough to offset those pitiful averages that came against Kansas City, Tennessee and Miami. The matchup against the Jags may appear salivating, but they are really no worse against the run than his last three opponents.

Tony Pollard vs the Broncos

It’s funny how memory works. We probably all remember his herculean effort week 2 (13-109-1, 3-31) against the Chargers more than we remember his last two games. Probably because those performances were forgettable. The Broncos have become one of the worst defenses in the league against the run, but I think that just makes this a good week for Zeke, not Pollard.

Khalil Herbert at the Steelers

This was already a tough matchup for the rookie and one in which the Bears offense will struggle to stay on the field, but news just broke that Montgomery is off IR, practicing, and coaches are looking to get his feet wet in this game. With what should be precious few offensive opportunities, that makes Herbert a risky start at best.

Wide Receiver Starts

Stefon Diggs at the Jaguars

Before you do a double take, note that over the past 4 weeks Diggs is WR24 in average points per game. I am putting him here because I think he is an absolute must start against the Jags, as in my projected WR4 for the week. Just ask anyone who benched Lockett against them last week. Diggs and Lockett have similar profiles and I think Diggs could win your week. Get him in.

Brandin Cooks at the Dolphins

Tyrod is back meaning the QB-proof Cooks gets a significant upgrade at QB this week. I have him as WR20 which is probably way too low. Miami is allowing an average of almost 300 passing yards per game over their last three.

Michael Pittman vs the Jets

The Jets gave up a big game to Tee Higgins last week and I actually think this will be a high-scoring affair. Thursday nights have not been as scary for fantasy this year and I think Pittman will come up huge against the Jets secondary. Who by the way are allowing a league-high 341 passing yards per game over their last three. Pittman is my WR9 for the week.

Van Jefferson vs the Titans

Van Jefferson is now essentially outplaying Robert Woods. Though his targets are still low his snap-share is sky high. He barely leaves the field. Just think of him as Stafford’s WR2 and now think if you would even consider benching him.

Wide Receiver Sits

De’Andre Hopkins at the 49ers

Murray’s hurt. He’s hurt. This is not the week to play Hopkins if you have better options. I have him as my WR18 this week.

Jerry Jeudy at the Cowboys

Who wants to bet that Travon Diggs doesn’t blanket his former teammate? I don’t. With the passing game stalling out and the whole team circling the drain, this is not the week to try and extract value from your mid-round pick.

Devonta Smith vs the Chargers

The Chargers are good against the pass and bad against the run. Strike one. Smith is an excellent, timing-based route technician. Does that sound like the best fit for Jalen Hurts? Strike two. Hurts has appeared at best erratic the past four weeks as a passer. Strike three. Sit Devonta this week.

Robert Woods vs the Titans

Normally you play everyone against the Titans, and normally you play all the Rams, but see Van Jefferson above. If not for his TD last week his owners would be running for the Hills. He caught only 3 of 9 targets for 35 yards, while Jefferson caught 3 of 6 for 88 yards. I think this is the week we see the changing of the guard at WR2 in Los Angeles.

Tight End Starts

Mike Gesicki vs the Texans

People might have been scared off by his near dud last week. Don’t be. They were playing the Bills who are basically the best pass defense in the league by most metrics. This week he gets to feast on Houston, allowing the 4th most points to tight ends in the league. Even Higbee got into the act against them as the 4th or 5th passing option on the Rams, catching all 3 of his targets.

CJ Uzomah vs the Browns

I don’t see this as a low-scoring affair and think multiple Bengals pass-catchers will get into the act, including CJ. His targets are sparse at best but the Browns will not be focusing on him, meaning he should get open often. If I’m Stefanski I concentrate safety coverage on Chase while focusing man-to-man on Higgins and Boyd. Look for a high-efficiency game that includes a score.

Tight End Sits

Mark Andrews vs the Vikings

I started writing about sitting Pitts but realized I just couldn’t recommend sitting him. So I’m picking on another talented tight end, Mark Andrews. Andrews had a dud (for him) against Cincy two weeks ago with 48 scoreless yards. Minnesota is better than Cincy against tight ends giving up only 5.2 fantasy points this year. I think he will disappoint again this week.

Dallas Goedert vs the Chargers

Goedert is getting a ridiculous target share since Ertz left, but the problem is in that same period the Eagles have the lowest pass attempts in the league. I think they stick with the ground game again which is of course what the Chargers defense wants. Staley is no dummy.

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