Tag: QB Sit/Start

Disclaimer: this article is being written by someone in the grips of sick brain, so please take all advice with appropriate grains of salt.

Week 10 saw some normalcy return to the NFL: Patrick Mahomes threw for 400 yards and 5 TDs: buy-low window decisively slammed shut on your greedy fingers. Josh Allen once again looked superhuman, throwing bombs against the Jets at will and locking on to Stephon Diggs. Matt Ryan once again looked like a scared little girl, Trevor Lawrence is in danger of being permanently broken by the dysfunctional man-child known as Urban Meyer.

One anomaly from week 9 that the NFL universe declined to right was the Rams being pushovers against tough defenses that beseige the quarterback. Matt Stafford was again subpar, although his first pick was definitely caused by Odell Beckham quitting on a route in his first game. I don’t see Odell as a positive for this team and surfaced these concerns as I poured boiling water down the sink (props to @cooterdoodle).

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— 2QBfantasy (@2QBFantasy) November 12, 2021

Anyway, since distinguishing causation and correlation is passé, let’s just say that Odell is a cancer and that’s why the Rams lost again, not that McVay can’t figure out how to respond to the type of defense that Vrabel and Shanahan threw at him. Because he’s a genius folks. GENIUS.

Let’s get down to the QB Sit/Start analysis for week 11.

Obvious Superflex QB1 Starts Week 11

Tom Brady vs the Giants: Because Brady, and because it’s the Giants.

Josh Allen vs the Colts: Are the Colts good? Yes. Will it matter? NO.

Lamar Jackson vs the Bears: Last time we saw the Bears they actually put up a pretty decent fight against the Steelers. Hopefully no one postures too hard at the Ravens sideline. The NFL is a freaking joke.

Patrick Mahomes vs the Cowboys: Jekyll and Hyde defense, but Mahomes is rolling as soon as I declared him a questionable start last week.

Dak Prescott vs the Chiefs: The Chiefs defense still sucks, and Dak looks right after his week 9 vortex of the absurd game.

Kyler Murray vs the Seahawks: Two weeks to rest a tweaked ankle should be plenty. I’d imagine Kyler is amped for this NFC West battle.

Aaron Rodgers vs the Vikings: The opposite of the Samson effect, his hippie-dipshit girlfriend got him to grow out his hair and sapped his strength. Barely a QB1 this year.

Joe Burrow vs the Raiders: Burrow had a terrible two-week stretch prior to the bye, though week 9 (of course) was more a case of one bad interception and some really bad drops. Expect a much better performance.

Jalen Hurts vs the Saints: I believe Hurts is good at real football, and think he just needs a little time to transition his game. Saints are good against the run so he might have to resort to actually throwing the ball, which I think he can do.

Russell Wilson vs the Cardinals: The big question is how hurt is he going into this one, and how badly will Carrol’s stone-age offense hold him back. Check injury reports on the former, we already know the latter.

Justin Herbert vs the Steelers: Will someone please get this kid some strawberries and a battleship? Herbert has been pretty awful his last two and the Steelers are no slouch.

Ryan Tannehill vs the Texans: Tannehill has two top 10 QB finishes, so you can trust him to finish in the top 12 against the Texans who barely qualify as a football team. Regardless who starts for the Texans expect Tannehill to be gifted great field position at least a couple times via interceptions.

Risky But Worth-It Superflex QB2 Starts

Derek Carr vs the Bengals

Almost always good for around 300 yards, the big question around Carr is where are the TDs? Only 5 across his last three games. He really needs to get his tunnel-vision connection with Waller back going, but even without he remains the top of the QB2 heap with QB1 upside. Start with confidence.

Justin Fields vs the Ravens

Fields is really coming along, and actually managed to pull a decent game out of the week 9 vortex of suck. His lone interception was basically a batted pass that feel into the defender’s arms. The Ravens are not an especially strong defense this year, and dare I say it, the Bears could be on an upswing. I think Fields is one of the stronger QB2 starts this week with QB1 upside due to his rushing floor, which is averaging about 60 yards his last 4 games.

Cam “Grandmama” Newton vs WFT

Cam didn’t really provide enough passing work to evaluate last week but he did score two TDs, one on the ground, so we know that we can at least rely on his vulture points. I expect something like 180 passing, 56 rushing, and two TDs of each variety. I also expect Christian McCaffrey owners to pull their hair out, but at least he won’t be killing every single drive like his predecessor The #DarnoldSpiral. Start without confidence.

Mac Jones vs the Falcons

Jones is basically the opposite of Jalen Hurts: a great real-life QB who is spotty, at best, at fantasy. Either he gets yards without TDs or TDs without yards, as Belichik is committed to ugly wins this year. I think Jones will develop into a QB1 with his skillset, but not this year. He does make for a solid QB2 start this week against an extremely inept and uber-conservative Falcons team. Mid-range QB2 start.

Carson Wentz vs the Bills

A friend of mine offered to write an article for my new fantasy site. Here it is:

It’s humorous that A) Wentz has not, in fact, been dog-shit lately and B) He is on this same friend’s team, but this week against the Bills I think we can expect him to be close to that. The Bills are just killers on opposing QBs, just ask Mike White. I think Wentz will be sub-250 passing and maybe just one TD. Start with caution, but he’s better than a lot of the other crap out there.

Kirk Cousins vs Green Bay

Cousins has turned in two straight top-10 performances (7 and 9) the last two weeks, and almost cracked 3-hundo last week, but I have a feeling things will be different against Green Bay. They managed to keep Mahomes in his funk, and are third in the league in allowed passing yards per game. I don’t see a big game from Cousins against the Packers, probably more of a Cook game.

Tua Tagovailoa vs the Jets

Tua marks the last of the viable QB2 starters, and I would check injury reports. He did not look right coming in for Brissett last week, fluttering several passes badly. The Jets constitute the resistance of a thrice-used condom in the passing game, so even with a gimpy hand he can probably score more than the rest of the pack here.

Trevor Siemian vs the Eagles

OK, so the guy has strung together some good games and he’s starting over Hill for a reason, maybe other than Hill sucking bad enough at QB to lose a job to Jameis Winston. You can’t really argue with 298 and 2 off the waiver wire late in the season, but he’s done this for stretches before and the wheels came off suddenly and drastically. Seems like even the Eagles could take advantage of him. But probably an ok QB2 start.

Sit These Guys in Superflex for Better Options

Joe Flacco vs the Dolphins: A better option for the desperate than those below, likely available on your WW right now, Joe will still struggle against the Miami pass rush that has found its footing in the past few weeks.

Ben Roethlisberger/Mason Rudolph vs the Chargers: They are basically the same racist player at this point, and neither will do well against the Chargers.

Matt Ryan vs New England: Possibly no Cordarelle Patterson which leaves Pitts the only weapon Belichik will have to focus on taking away. The Falcons are falling apart on the gimpy withered arm of Ryan.

Taylor Heinicke vs the Panthers: 4 TDs over his last four games, the Panthers pass rush is going to eat this guy alive.

Baker Mayfield vs the Lions: This guy is held together by duct-tape at this point. Not even the Lions could make him a good start.

Trevor Lawrence vs the 49ers: We all just saw what the Niners D did to Stafford right? Yeah, bench.

Daniel Jones vs the Bucs: Can we declare this a failed experiment yet? Seeing nods all around, ok. Failed experiment. Next.

Tyrod Taylor: Few debuts were more disappointing than his three-interception, five-sack disaster.

Jared Goff vs the Browns: One touchdown over his last five games, 114 yards passing last week. Time to see what Blough can do.

After week 9 I’m not going to even pretend I know what’s going on any more. Here are the top five scoring QBs from week 9 in order: Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Matt Ryan, Josh Johnson, and Carson Wentz. Josh Allen was 20th. Patrick Mahomes was 22nd and Joe Burrow was 23rd. All three finished behind Jordan Love in his first career start.

Anyone who says they saw week 9 coming is completely full of it. Show me one guy who had Josh Johnson in their top five and Josh Allen out of the top ten (against the Jaguars!)

Weeks like week 9 should cause all of us to start examining our assumptions, not about individual players necessarily, but about the point of even trying to prognosticate this stuff. And maybe some individual players, like Mahomes and potentially Burrow.

Looking into the EPA+CPOE composite scores of weeks 4-8, there was definitely some warning on Mahomes, but not so much on Allen, Stafford, or Burrow, who both cratered in week 9 against middling opponents. Ryan and Wentz, who both finished top-five against good and bad defenses respectively, were both in the top ten of this metric weeks 4-8.

	Player	EPA+CPOE composite
1	M.Stafford	0.199
2	J.Allen	0.194
3	T.Brady	0.166
4	R.Tannehill	0.165
5	K.Murray	0.161
6	J.Burrow	0.155
7	Aa.Rodgers	0.151
8	M.Ryan	0.150
9	M.Jones	0.138
10	C.Wentz	0.133
11	L.Jackson	0.130
12	T.Tagovailoa	0.120
13	D.Carr	0.110
14	P.Mahomes	0.108
15	T.Bridgewater	0.098
16	J.Hurts	0.072
17	B.Roethlisberger	0.066
18	T.Lawrence	0.065
19	K.Cousins	0.051
20	J.Fields	0.051
21	B.Mayfield	0.032
22	D.Mills	0.031
23	T.Heinicke	0.027
24	J.Goff	0.023
25	J.Herbert	0.023
26	D.Jones	0.022
27	S.Darnold	-0.025

If we take a look at a smaller sample of weeks 6-8, we see Stafford stay at the top, Allen slip a little, Burrow move up, Ryan and Wentz crater (after all, Ryan had a disastrous week 8 and Wentz is always inconsistent), and Mahomes stay right around the middle of the league.

	Player	EPA+CPOE composite
1	M.Stafford	0.234
2	R.Tannehill	0.217
3	J.Allen	0.180
4	Aa.Rodgers	0.159
5	J.Burrow	0.152
6	T.Brady	0.149
7	K.Murray	0.141
8	M.White	0.125
9	T.Bridgewater	0.123
10	T.Tagovailoa	0.120
11	M.Jones	0.103
12	K.Cousins	0.096
13	G.Smith	0.087
14	P.Mahomes	0.071
15	B.Roethlisberger	0.067
16	J.Hurts	0.061
17	C.Wentz	0.059
18	M.Ryan	0.056
19	D.Mills	0.039
20	J.Fields	0.037
21	J.Goff	0.024
22	T.Lawrence	0.020
23	T.Heinicke	0.010
24	L.Jackson	0.009
25	D.Jones	0.001
26	J.Herbert	-0.052
27	S.Darnold	-0.054

So other than Mahomes, there really weren’t any major warning flags on these players who unexpectedly delivered duds week 9 against lesser opponents. I do believe that the Titans and Jaguars defenses have improved some, but they did not all the sudden become world-beaters overnight. Week 9 unusually high variance on quarterbacks and pass-catchers was likely just that, an unusually high variance. So the best thing is not to overreact to this and expect a basic regression to the mean here. After all, do we really expect Colt McCoy, Baker Mayfield and Matt Ryan to dominate the position for the rest of the season as they did in week 9?

Obvious QB1 Starts in Superflex

Lamar Jackson vs the Dolphins: No reason not to put him at the top spot this week given his rushing floor is elevating every week. The Dolphins defense is nothing to be scared of.

Josh Allen vs the Jets: The Jets just put Carson Wentz in the top five. Given the info above we can safely chalk up week 9 against the Jags to an aberration and confidently start Allen this week in a plus matchup.

Tom Brady vs the WFT: Absolutely no reason Tom should not continue his dominant season against this pass-funnel defense.

Justin Herbert vs the Vikings: Herbert was one of the few top-flight QBs along with Jackson to survive the week 9 purge. After a momentary dip in the standings Herbert is once again playing great ball. Minnesota is bottom 10 in passing yards allowed per game in their past three contests.

Matt Stafford vs the 49ers: Stafford should be fine following his week 9 disaster against the Titans. The Rams need to pass less and run more, which could dampen his fantasy outlook this week.

Kyler Murray vs the Panthers: Panthers have been playing great in their past three against the pass, but that has come against Daniel Jones, Matt Ryan, and Mac Jones. Fire Murray up as long as he is healthy.

Derek Carr vs the Chiefs: Carr is still throwing a ton (46 attempts last game) and just needs to find Waller in the end zone more to be a top-five QB this week. Should be doable against the Chiefs who are giving up 1.7 passing TDs in their last three, and that includes games against Jordan Love and Daniel Jones.

Questionable QB Starts in Superflex

Patrick Mahomes vs the Raiders

Yes, we have reached that point. As we saw above, Mahome’s predictive metrics have been middle of the league since week 4. He finished outside the top 20 last week. He finished outside the top 15 in week 8. He finished outside the top 20 in week 7. Something is not right. If you haven’t already notified your league that he is available for trade, it might not be too late to do so. His name recognition alone can probably net you someone like Burrow or Herbert.

Now, there is always the possibility that things just click and he gets back to his earlier season form. But there’s no denying that Mahomes over the past 5 weeks has been at or below average, which is unacceptable given his draft capital. Would I bench Mahomes for a lesser QB? No, even though I think the probability of him finishing outside the top 20 once again is about 30%. I’d put the probability of him finishing top five at about 10%. But if you somehow have Josh Allen and David Carr, yeah I would bench him until he turns things around.

Russel Wilson vs the Packers

I think Russ is a fairly safe start in his first game back from IR, but he’s not automatic. He’s not a volume passer. He plays in the most conservative, old-school offense in the league and I don’t think that will change until Carrol is shown the door. The Packers are only giving up .7 TDs in their last three. So his own offense is working against a big yardage total, and he’s playing a team that isn’t giving up passing touchdowns in big numbers. I think he’s absolutely a solid QB2 but not a slam-dunk QB1 this week.

Jalen Hurts vs the Broncos

The Jalen Hurts mystery continues. We know he’s good at fantasy football. But is he good at real football? He’s probably good enough to finish out the season as the Eagles starter. After that I think it’s fair to expect the Eagles to at least bring in healthy competition next year. He hasn’t gone for over 300 yards since week 4. He did get a QBR north of 100 last week despite a down fantasy day.

His stats show the obvious: his team is trying to win keeping the ball on the ground and out of the air. They’ve accepted that he’s not going to be an accurate pocket passer and are embracing the run. This makes a lot of sense going against the Broncos who are giving up 5.1 ypc over their last three. A solid QB2 but unlikely to hit quality passing yardage.

Carson Wentz vs the Jaguars

God I hate to admit this but the charts don’t lie: over the past 5 weeks Wentz has been an above average QB. The Jaguars are a plus matchup giving up 71% completion rate to opposing QBs over their last three. Wentz should be a solid start again this week.

Dak Prescott vs the Falcons

Dak looked more than off last week. He looked absolutely terrible.

Given that he was just coming back from a calf injury, and before that a shoulder injury, and before that a season-ending ankle injury, it’s fair to wonder if the injuries are not mounting up and messing with his throwing motion, confidence, or both. Dak is another guy you might look at moving while his name recognition is still high. Prior to last week Denver looked absolutely beatable through the air, just like the Falcons do now.

Matt Ryan vs the Cowboys

Ugh, Matt Ryan. Turned in a couple good games before the bye, came back from the bye totally limp, then managed another good game while throwing two touchdowns to Zacheus. Ryan is taking what the defense gives him, and if that means ignoring Pitts and zeroing in on a no-name player he’s doing that all day. Diggs will likely play on Pitts, meaning it’s another dink and dunk day for Ryan, and it will probably be good enough for a top-15 finish.

Teddy Bridgewater vs the Eagles

Steady Teddy is back, not overwhelming, not underwhelming. Likely a safe bet against the Eagles, who are giving up 1.3 passing touchdowns in their last three. He threw for 249-1 against the Cowboys and I would expect similar numbers, possibly an extra touchdown.

Kirk Cousins vs the Chargers

The Chargers are an incredibly tough defense to pass against, so expect Dalvin Cook to shoulder most of the load here. Cousins is under 200 yards passing in his last two outings, both coming against defensively inferior opponents (Ravens and Cowboys). He’s still capable of throwing deep as evidenced last week, but there isn’t enough volume, and his intended air yards per attempt are down to 6.8 after averaging 8 last year.

Mike White vs the Bills

The only defense outperforming the Chargers against the pass are the Bills. This makes White’s third start a dicey one, but he might be the only QB on the bottom half of QB2 status who is a real threat to throw for 300+ yards. His encore was cut short last week with a forearm injury, so this will be his follow-up from his blowup game where he threw for 400+ yards. Elijah Moore’s emergence in week 9 bodes well, but owners should temper their expectations and play more established threats at the position if they have them.

Ryan Tannehill vs the Saints

Despite a decisive victory against the Rams and no Derrick Henry, Tannehill had a very subpar game with 143-1-1. Very on-script for week 9. HIs prior two games were much better, eclipsing 250 yards passing in each, but Tannehill seems to always remind us that he’s difficult to trust even as a QB2. The Saints should be a better matchup for him, averaging 270 passing yards allowed over their last 3 and giving up 332 to Matt Ryan.

Jimmy G/Trey Lance vs the Rams

Honestly I have no idea who will end up starting or finishing this game for the 49ers and we are unlikely to get any indication before Saturday. If its Jimmy G, expect low passing numbers but an efficient game. If it’s Lance, expect a decent rushing floor (like 45 yards) and multiple sacks and picks. Either way it’s a desperation play and not a recommended start.

Baker Mayfield vs the Patriots

Good for an efficient 235 and 2 most weeks, just not someone who will help win your week but not someone who will lose it either. Low-end QB2, should deliver more points than most flex options.

Taylor Heinicke vs the Bucs

The last and least of the viable QB2 options, just don’t start him thinking the Bucs are still a pushover in the passing game. Over their last three they are surrendering only 163 passing yards per game, good for second in the league.

QB Sits in Superflex

Tua/Brissett vs the Ravens: If it’s Tua he bumps up to a mid-range QB2 option but it’s not sounding promising as of Wednesday.

Goff vs the Steelers: Not a starting option even in Superflex.

Big Ben vs the Lions: Arm is cooked, same as every other week.

Mac Jones vs the Browns: The Patriots are trying to win dirty and this leads to very mediocre stat lines from Jones. If both Harris and Stevenson sit with concussions, he could be serviceable as a QB2.

PJ Walker vs the Cardinals: Going against the Cardinals pass rush is not how you want to start your NFL career.

Trevor Lawrence vs the Colts: I still have hope for this kid, but not until Meyer is fired.