Since this is a Superflex site I focus on all QBs in a sit/start format every week and you can find that here. You can also check out my week 8 rankings for every player.
Running Back Starts
Joe Mixon at the Jets
The Jets are starting Mike White against one of the better defenses in football. Mixon should see north of 23 carries and an additional 3-4 receptions in what figures to be an absolute route. RB7 for the week.
Elijah Mitchell vs the Bears
The Bears are turnover prone and they are also likely to be without Khalil Mack. Jimmy G is not a quarterback to feature, even with less pressure, so expect the Niners to use Mitchell heavily to move the ball. I’m betting he benefits from a couple Bears turnovers that lead to easy scores. RB15 this week.
James Robinson at Seattle
Fresh off a bye facing the team that just allowed Kamara to go off for a career day in receiving. Robinson should be good for about 120 total yards and 2 touchdowns. RB10 for the week.
Running Back Sits
Nick Chubb vs the Steelers
There’s really no reason to feed Chubb 20+ carries his first game back with D’Ernest Johnson setting the world on fire last week. With so many injuries already, smart coaching would recommend a 50/50 split between the backs on carries with Felton handling most of the passing game work. RB12 for the week.
Darrell Henderson Jr. vs the Texans
This should be a plus spot for Henderson but last week should have been as well. With Tyrod back I bet the Texans don’t just roll over and we see usage a lot like last week. Low yardage and no scores. RB16.
Antonio Gibson at the Broncos
This should be a plus matchup but Gibson is playing hurt and that is severely limiting his production. I don’t expect things to get better for him until he shuts it down and heals. Before D’Ernest shredded them last week, the Broncos were only giving up the 4th most rushing yards. Bad week for Gibson; RB22.
Wide Receiver Starts
Terry McLaurin at the Broncos
It’s fine to chase points here as Heinicke has zeroed in on him and he seems to be over his injury. Broncos secondary is overrated. WR9
Chris Godwin at the Saints
No Antonio and a revenge game for Tom mean good things for Godwin. I counted him out against the Bears and he still delivered with over 100 and a touch. Expect more of the same this week, good for WR10.
Adam Thielen vs the Cowboys
Thielen is coming off a monster game (11-126-1) in which he absolutely destroyed one of my teams. I expect Jefferson to draw the Diggs coverage, which means Cousins should be looking for Thielen in what I expect to be a high-scoring game. I don’t expect a repeat but think 6-75-2 is a real possibility which should be good enough for WR17.
Wide Receiver Sits
DJ Moore at the Falcons
Moore is unfortunately caught in the #DarnoldSpiral and hasn’t topped 80 yards or caught a TD in three straight. Darnold got the dreaded vote of confidence last week after being yanked for XFL star PJ Walker. Unfortunately for Moore neither one looks remotely competent. WR24 this week.
Tyler Lockett vs the Jaguars
There is one word for Lockett and that is spoiled. Russel Wilson’s perfect moon balls which fell right into his arms as he was running down the field have ruined him for normal quarterbacks, and Geno Smith is not quite up to that billing. It was perfectly displayed on a ball that Geno threw to him in coverage and because it did not drop perfectly into his hands he couldn’t field it. Sit Lockett until Russ comes back. WR48.
Allen Robinson vs the 49ers
I don’t think it’s going to click for Fields this year. I was wrong, Nagy was right. Allen Robinson is looking at a lost season here folks, and it’s not going to get any better. Best his (remaining) owners can hope for is for Andy Dalton to start. Puke emoji. WR49
Tight End Starts
Robert Tonyan vs the Cardinals
Holeeeee shit Robert Tonyan. Adams, Lazard, and MVS are all out. That leaves Tonyan, Cobb, and untested rookie Amari Rodgers as the only viable pass-catchers. Tonyan should blow up this week, take advantage. TE5.
Dalton Schultz at the Vikings
Shcultz has been a main focal point of the Dallas offense all year and Dak is coming off a 400+yard game before the bye. Schultz should feast even though the Vikings are decent against TEs.
Rob Gronkowski vs the Saints
I think this is a week to start all Bucs, even Gronk in his first game back. The Saints are middling against tight ends and I think he is good for at least one touchdown. Brady holds grudges. Take advantage. TE7
Tight End Sits
CJ Uzomah at the Jets
There is no way this game is competitive, meaning the Bengals are going to lean on the run and barely pass, at least if this season is a good reference point. The Bengals could decide to buck the trend, and can basically choose how they want to beat the Jets, but the most probable course is on the ground. TE12.
Tyler Higbee at the Texans
Higbee just isn’t a focal point of the Rams offense and I don’t see big things for him even though I expect the Rams to pass a lot. TE11.
Ricky Seals-Jones at the Broncos
I feel like the guy in Big. I just don’t get it. Where is the fantasy love coming from for this guy? He must be doing a lot of great things that don’t show in the box score because his box score sucks. His best game the past four weeks is 4-58-1, and that’s his only TD. I’d play Evan Engram and Hunter Henry over him easy. TE15
The November 2nd trade deadline is looming large this week and of course that means ten millions articles saying very little about Deshaun Watson, and of course I listed him on my WW column this week. Here are the only truly relevant bits about Watson that are currently comprising the ten million articles.
The NFL has said that it doesn’t have enough information right now to suspend Watson or place him on the exempt list, meaning if a team does trade for him, he would theoretically be able to play. So if traded, Deshaun Watson is a slam-dunk league winner in Superflex leagues. This is barring criminal charges, but those would have already been filed if they were coming in this case.
The other relevant bit of information is that the Dolphins and Texans have actually agreed to terms, but the Dolphins want to let the legal process play out before making a move. This doesn’t necessarily preclude a team from jumping them and trading for Watson before the deadline, but it does show that there is serious concern around the league that the NFL could seek to punish Watson via suspension once his civil cases are concluded, barring a complete exoneration of Watson on all charges.
Now, there is still a non-zero percent that another team, maybe the Panthers or Broncos, musters up the king’s ransom the Texans are reportedly demanding, but I wouldn’t put those chances above 5%. Still, unless it will significantly cost your team chances at the playoffs, now would be the time to pick up or trade for Watson.
Obvious Superflex QB1 Starts for Week 8
QB1 – Josh Allen vs the Dolphins: Absolutely no reason not to rank him QB1 this week. Miami isn’t stopping anyone, just ask Matt Ryan.
QB2 –Tom Brady at the Saints: Tom Brady holds a grudge. At the start of THIS season he was still talking about their loss at the hands of the Saints at the beginning of last year. I think he is a great bet to finish QB2 even with a zero rushing floor.
QB3 –Dak Prescott at the Vikings: Coming off a 400+yard overtime win week 6, expect Dallas to lean more on Dak to win this one as Cousins and company can keep up.
QB4 – Kyler Murray vs the Packers: Rodgers and Green Bay are the right level of competition to bring out Kyler’s best work, but we just aren’t seeing the same rushing production out of him that we saw last year – he hasn’t gone over 30 yards since week 4 and amassed a total of 17 rushing yards in his last three.
QB5 –Patrick Mahomes vs the Giants: Yes there is reason for concern, but Mahomes is providing a nice rushing floor (around 30 yards per game) and had a great fantasy day week 6. The Chiefs may not be headed to the Super Bowl this year, but Mahomes owners should still be comfortable starting him as a top-5 option every week.
QB6 –Matt Stafford at the Texans: I love Stafford and what he is doing this year, hell I had him at QB4 last week despite a middling opponent, but it’s hard to see him finishing the game. You have to start him unless you have two of the above, but expect a down week and only 3 full quarters of action.
QB7 – Justin Herbert vs the Patriots: Fire up Herbert after a down week and a bye to get over it. Just watch out if the opposing defensive coordinator says he can throw a marshmallow through a T-Rex.
QB8 – Joe Burrow at the Jets: It pains me to put Burrow this low after finishing as QB1 in most leagues last week. But the Bengals don’t pass as much when they are solidly ahead and that should be the case whether it’s Flacco or White under center for New York.
QB9 – Jalen Hurts at the Lions: I have him this low because I think the Eagles are going to try and simplify things for Hurts. He’s hanging onto his starting job by a chinstrap but I think he uses this matchup to hold on for one more day.
QB10 – Kirk Cousins vs the Cowboys: I expect the Cowboys D to have a decent day but think Cousins can overcome.
QB11 – Aaron Rodgers at the Cardinals: Check back before gametime to see if Adams plays, if so Rodgers jumps up behind Mahomes, if not he should be right around here.
QB12 – Ryan Tannehill at the Colts: The Colts rank 16th in FPA to QBs and are 22nd in sacks per game. Tannehill has posted two 100+ QBRs in the past two weeks, after posting none in the first four. Start and buy low.
Superflex QB2 Starts with Some Questions
Everyone in this week’s top 12 is a solid start with the possible exception of Burrow. Luckily Burrow had weak draft capital and is probably a QB2 on many superflex squads. Hurts is risky because another shaky start could get him benched. Probably not this week but coming soon to a firestorm near you. Sell-low folks.
Looking downstream at the QB2 field, it’s a mess. I think there are a few gems in here that could push their way into the top ten this week. Let’s see who they are.
QB13 – Tua Tagovailoa at the Bills:
If the Bills weren’t currently allowing the lowest FPG to QBs in the league Tua would be in the top ten. But getting the Bills at home is sure to derail what has been an incredible 2-game run for Tua with trade rumors swirling all around him. I have him this high because he finished QB8 week 6 and QB1 week 7. He’s playing at a high level right now and I think the rumors are fueling him.
Week 7 had some hiccups but great for fantasy
QB14 – Matt Ryan vs Carolina:
We know the Carolina offense is bad. That could be bad for Ryan with a coach who shows conservative tendencies. But Ryan, after the bye, showed that he can still throw the deep ball and that’s great news for his owners and Kyle Pitts. May not be so great for Ridley owners but who knows?
Week 7: Multiple connections past 20 yards
Compare this chart to his week 5 performance which was more indicative of the pre-bye trend.
Week 5: Two completions over 15 yards, one just barely
Carolina is thoroughly average against the pass. Ryan should do well again and is a good buy-mid target.
QB15 – Daniel Jones at the Chiefs:
Daniel Jones is a perennial mystery. Is he the problem? Is the coach the problem? OC? We just know there is a problem. There might not be against the Chiefs, second to only WFT in FPA to QBs, and at best average in opponent completion percentage and basically every other measurable category against the pass (1 sack in their past 3!). He sucked against Carolina who is beatable, but at least got some rushing mojo back with his most yards (28) since week 4. Startable as a QB2 but don’t expect an explosion unless Toney is back.
QB16 – Trevor Lawrence at Seattle:
Trevor is on his way up, and Seattle is more beatable through the air than their last game suggests (tons of dropped passes by Stills, Smith, and White). I think Trevor’s college experience has prepared him for the noise, and the weather is looking clear as of this writing. He ripped off three straight weeks with QBR north of 90 and I think we just see ascendence from here.
QB17 – Mac Jones at the Chargers:
The Chargers allow the 24th most FPG to QBs and are a really tough road matchup for Jones. The playbook is opening up for him and that’s a god thing for everyone not named Jakobi Meyers. Check out his splits from both Jets games this year, both blowouts.
Week 2: Low volume, short passesWeek 7: Medium volume, deeper passes
Given who they are facing and the fact the Belichik really doesn’t want to miss the playoffs two seasons in a row, I think this cumulates in a high-volume, deep-passing game for Jones which should be good for a top-15 finish.
QB18 – Tyrod Taylor vs the Rams:
OK, hear me out…this is the team that just allowed Jared Goff to throw for 268 yards and finish QB18. Tyrod, in his one-game sample size earlier this year, actually looked pretty good (QB10) finish. Goff found success throwing short passes to the middle of the field. Tyrod has success throwing short passes to set up the occasional deep ball. Could surprise some people this week, and he can run when he has to.
QB19 – Teddy Bridgewater vs WFT:
I had Bridge too high last week for playing on a short week on a bum ankle. With ten days rest to heal, I think he makes a fine QB2 play at WFT with QB1 upside given the WFT passing funnel and Jeudy coming back.
QB20 – Jameis Winston vs the Bucs:
It wasn’t all his fault Monday night, but Jameis failed to look any better than he has for the majority of the season. He was the victim of drops, but also just not being on the same page with his receivers, and relying way too heavily on dump off to Kamara.
More of the same – inaccurate and inconsistent
Do revenge games matter? Brady sucked in the most-hyped revenge game of recent memory. I think we can expect about the same from Jameis, somewhere sub 250 in passing with 2-3 TDs.
QB21 – Carson Wentz vs the Titans: Pittman is making Wentz look better than he is. He’s in a plus spot against the Titans so this is a week to start him if you have him. Not an exciting option but likely better than QB24 this week.
QB22 – Jared Goff vs the Eagles:
When I think Goff I think short dump-off passes and lots of them because the Lions really don’t have a run game. So I looked up who is giving out the most completions per game in the league. Over the last three Philly is giving up the third most in the league. That gives Goff a fighting chance to get YAC out of Swift, Williams, and Raymond, who are all good flex plays this week (Swift is more of a RB1/2). Nothing spectacular but north of 280 and possibly two scores.
QB23 – Taylor Heinicke at the Broncos:
Heinicke is mercurial. He vacillates from Rudy story to “he is who we thought he was” every week. Last week he was Rudy, except for the L.
Not bad…now add 95 yards rushing and what should have been a rushing TD
Knowing that Ryan Fitzpatrick is still on crutches, the leash gets longer for Heinicke even though for some reason Ron Rivera still believes in Kyle Allen. The Broncos got exposed by the Browns and I don’t think this game will be why Heinicke gets the hook. Low-end QB2 with high-end QB2 upside.
QB24 – Justin Fields vs the Niners:
I was back and forth on Fields vs Jimmy G in this last spot. Fields wins out simply because he does have rushing upside. I am not expecting Fields to get it, maybe not this year. I hate to admit it but I think Nagy was right that he just needs to sit and learn. And it’s one thing to not get too down on yourself, but it’s another thing to sit on the sidelines and look like you don’t care that you are playing like garbage. Get your head in a Surface and figure out what is going wrong.
Respect Yourself, You Can Do Better
No particular order because we are delving into the worst of the worst here and order shouldn’t matter.
Sam Darnold: #DarnoldSpiral will be a thing
Geno Smith: Gee, no.
Mike White/Joe Flacco: We don’t need an experienced backup! Our rookie from BYU who never saw pressure in college will be fine!
Jimmy G: Coming to a clipboard near you.
Keenum/Baker: Not against Pittsburg, not this week. Pitt giving up 4.9 ypg rushing in last three.
In honor of byepocolypse I’m going to go with a few more sit/starts at each position so dividing this up into sit/start calls for running back, wide receiver, tight end, and streaming defense. Oh, and I do an exhaustive Superflex QB Sit/Start every week.
Teams on Bye: Vikings, Cowboys, Bills, Steelers, Jaguars, Chargers
It’s National Tight End Day (which apparently is a thing? NFL? Anything the marketing team can come up to distract people from the massive email reveal coming?). Ok, maybe that’s what you do when you’re scared you’re about to get sued by tons of people.
Tight End Starts
Mike Gesicki vs the Falcons
Of course you are starting Pitts in this game but Geiscki is probably more deserving of a start. A QB that can throw it more than 15 yards and steady targets every game give Gesicki a higher floor. Start with confidence – Falcons are bottom-five in FPA to tight ends.
Zach Ertz vs the Colts
Ertz was doing well before the trade. Now he has free reign at TE snaps and maybe a bit of a chip on his shoulder. I think he makes a great start this week. Colts are allowing 8th-most fantasy points against the tight end.
Dallas Goedert vs the Raiders
Free at last! Goedert gets the league’s worst unit against the position, allowing 12.4 fantasy points. I’m a bit nervous about a Hurts meltdown in this game but I think Goedert will still get his.
Kyle Pitts vs the Dolphins
Just in case anyone was thinking of sitting this guy based on volatility, I think Pitts has emerged as both the most reliable and explosive receiver the Falcons have. I expect at least 11 targets.
Tight End Sits
Ricky Seals-Jones vs the Packers
Ok I just realized that Tight End Sits sounds kinda funny but whatever. The WFT are bottom five in both completion percentage and yards per attempt in their last three. Heinicke managed to play above his level for a while, but has come crashing back to reality. Seals-Jones does have a crazy snap-share for a tight end, but the rest of the numbers aren’t working in his favor. Despite the hype only one touchdown in his last three and no games over 60 yards.
Hunter Henry vs the Jets
I think the Patriots ground and pound for most of this game and Henry is still only seeing a 69% snap-share. Of course don’t start Jonnu either. Avoid this mess likely to be low-scoring.
In honor of byepocolypse I’m going to go with a few more sit/starts at each position so dividing this up into sit/start calls for running back, wide receiver, tight end, and streaming defense. Oh, and I do an exhaustive Superflex QB Sit/Start every week.
Teams on Bye: Vikings, Cowboys, Bills, Steelers, Jaguars, Chargers
As usual I’m trying to hit on players with legit question marks. Especially this week. If you have a quality starter you are starting him.
Wide Receiver Starts
Henry Ruggs vs the Eagles
Ruggs’s chemistry with Carr is improving steadily, and with Gruden gone maybe Bisaccia will start to actually use Ruggs the right way. Ruggs was way more than a deep threat in college and all it will take for everyone to see that is more of the underneath routes they threw to him at Bama to get him going.
Calvin Ridley vs the Dolphins
Breakin
As mentioned in my RB column I’m telling people to sit Cordarelle Patterson for better options this week, if possible. I think Ridley starts to eat up more of the underneath routes, and think he will have a high number of targets but stay under 10 ypc. I could see 12 for 85 and a score.
AJ Green vs the Texans
It was a Hopkins week last week, is this AJ Green’s week? TY Hilton was clearly secondary to Pittman against the Texans and caught 4-80 on just 50% of the snaps. I think it should be Green’s week, at least one TD and 70+ yards.
Mike Evans vs the Bears
I don’t know how to express this in exact terms, but know it’s coming from roughly 33 years of watching the Bears. Evans has what it takes to score against the Bears. Not necessarily dominate in yardage, in fact he hasn’t cracked 70 against the Bears their last 2 meetings. But he did have a score last year. I think he’s good for at least one touchdown, and with the way Brady’s playing should get at least two sideline catch and runs, amassing about 80 yards.
Wide Receiver Sits Week 7
TY Hiltonvs the 49ers
50% snap share and he hurt himself. Given that he’s already coming back from an injury just after getting IR, the Colts will continue to be cautious with his snaps. 3-34 is my call.
Tyler Lockett vs the Saints
Over/under on this one is just 43.5, and I think most of that has to be betting on the Saints to score. Seattle’s offense is far too conservative to function well without a basically perfect quarterback, which Wilson has been. Geno Smith is not, so the offense grinds to a halt. Both Seattle WRs are risky plays with 30-50 yard scoreless floors. Lockett depended so much for his points on the moon-ball, and only one QB in the NFL can throw that pass.
Chris Godwin vs the Bears
Godwin’s targets are erratic and he isn’t making the most of them when he gets them. He won’t rebound against the Bears who are strong in pass defense over the middle. Godwin feasts on slant routes to the inside. Low yardage and no score.
In honor of byepocolypse I’m going to go with a few more sit/starts at each position so dividing this up into sit/start calls for running back, wide receiver, tight end, and streaming defense. Oh, and I do an exhaustive Superflex QB Sit/Start every week.
Teams on Bye: Vikings, Cowboys, Bills, Steelers, Jaguars, Chargers
As usual I’m trying to hit on players with legit question marks. Especially this week. If you have a quality starter you are starting him.
Running Back Starts for Week 7
Miles Sanders vs the Raiders
After last week the Eagles desperately need to stabilize their passing and Sanders is already getting a steady increase in snaps, but the attempts haven’t come. Only 9 rushes last week which doesn’t get it done. But their offense is too erratic, and focusing on the run and feeding Sanders to settle things down makes sense.
Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel vs the Lions
Henderson is a gimme in what should be an offensive explosion, but I think Michel will get enough carries in the 4th quarter to turn in a useful appearance. Something like 12 for 55 and 2 for 25 and maybe a score.
D’Andre Swift vs the Rams
The negative game script will help him as he has struggled as a runner and flourished as a pass-catcher. The Rams are 4th in sacks per game and got four in their last one. Goff is bad against any pass rush, but has never faced his old team before. The panic dump-offs will be flying.
Darrell Williams vs the Titans
The Titans did a good job of shutting down the Bills rushing attack last week, but a lot of that was self-inflicted on the Bills part. I think the Tennessee run defense is still beatable and Williams has another big low-efficiency day.
Running Back Sits
Latavius Murray vs the Bengals
There is no safe port in the Baltimore running back storm. Murray is TD dependent and the Bengals defensive unit is underrated. I think all Baltimore backs see about 35 yards a piece. Jackson should have about 90.
Myles Gaskin vs the Falcons
Favorable matchup but his usage dipped with Tua back. Sample size is too small but it looks like Tua is favoring Waddle over Gaskin as a short yardage target, understandable given Tua and Waddle’s chemistry. Gaskin’s lone spike game came on double-digit targets.
Cordarelle Patterson vs the Dolphins
This one is just a feeling. I think after the bye they feature Patterson a little less and start getting the ball to Ridley and Gage more at the expense of Patterson. Pitt’s targets are going to stay at a floor of 9-10 and occasionally flirt with 15. Good time to sell-high.
