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Waiver Wire Week 5 (for Week 6)

I won’t bother commenting on the entire Raiders fiasco with Jon Gruden as this is going to be fodder for the dumbest and worst impulses American media has to offer. I’m sure Fox News has already run 2-3 hours of commentary about cancel culture run amok, while CNN and MSNBC have engaged in collective pearl clutching and ranting about white privilege.

The only thing more deafening than this noise is the silence surrounding the actual case, which concerns the toxic culture surrounding the Washington Football Team under owner Dan Snyder, which included a lot more than salty language in emails.

The NFL, which is owned by the individual team owners, conducted its own investigation into itself, examined over 650,000 emails, as well as countless complaints of sexual harassment and abuse at the hands of WFT ownership and leadership. Yet we know absolutely nothing about the findings of that investigation. The NFL has not released a single email, including the Gruden emails, to the public. The complaints alleged by multiple female employees of WFT have not been answered.

Gruden was a dumbass for writing what he did. I personally don’t like what he wrote, but I am far from shocked by it and neither is anyone else who has worked for or around the NFL. But he was not forced to step down for using offensive language in an email. He was forced to step down because he insulted the owners and Goodell, and his firing provides a nice virtue-signaling distraction from why none of us have ever seen any results of that “investigation.”

Waiver Wire Quarterbacks Week 5

Guys like Taylor Heinicke and Daniel Jones disappointed their owners big time last week, but one had to see Daniel Jones’s poor play prior to injury coming against a division rival with a surging defense. The bid percentages are going up as FA Budgets dwindle.

Carson Wentz, 14% rostered, 35% FAAB

Wentz put on a show last night in a losing effort, racking up points and getting things started with a nice 75-yard catch and run TD by Jonathan Taylor. He also hit Pittman for a TD who made an incredible effort to come back for the ball and catch it over a defenders helmet. Don’t expect a repeat as the Ravens played God-awful, but at least his ankle worries are behind him.

Teddy Bridgewater, 14% rostered, 40% FAAB

Bridge bounced back from a concussion with 38 attempts, 288 yards, and two touchdowns. He gets Jeudy back soon and is a more stable source of points than most of the guys on the WW.

Geno Smith, 1% rostered, 25% FAAB

Though only a band-aid, Smith actually looked better than Wilson once he went in. The offense improved, and he seemed more than capable of leading a team until Wilson gets back. This does happen with backups, who come in and deliver in the excitement of seeing the field and then fall flat after a week of practice, but Smith seems a good enough band-aid for now.

Drops: Zach Wilson, Jacoby Brissett,

Waiver Wire Running Backs Week 5

Devontae Booker, 9% rostered, 15% FAAB

Booker is going to get volume in an offense that relies on the run, and figures to get passing game work as well as the Giants did not have a dedicated passing down back. The only thing holding his bid amount down is how long Barkley will be out. Saquon could be out only for next week, so some of the other guys might seem more appealing.

Darrel Williams, 19% rostered, 25% FAAB

Darrel will get all of CEH’s touches and possibly a bit more as McKinnon is not suited for goal line work. The problem is that he’s getting the lion’s share of basically jack shit. The Chiefs don’t feature the run game and they don’t pass to their backs with any sort of regularity. Maybe a 2-3 record will change that, but betting on Andy Reid to massively change what has been, until this year, a successful formula is kinda dumb. Though the Chiefs are running a somewhat respectable 38% of the time at 28 times a game over their last three, their defense is stopping no one and that means fewer rushing attempts as the game goes on.

Khalil Herbert, 19% rostered, 15% FAAB

Herbert pushed his way into a 50/50 timeshare with Damien Williams, with Williams seeing the GL looks and targets. Williams looked absolutely terrible at the GL. I expect Herbert to get a crack, but it’s just as likely that the Bears use Ryan Nall or Justin Fields in GL packages. The Bears rushed 37 times in the game against the Raiders which went 100% their way. The coming week against the Packers I don’t expect that to happen, and the Bears will likely be playing catch up. It will be interesting to see how this split goes when the Bears are playing from behind, and the degree to which the Bears abandon the run and let Fields throw.

David Johnson, 29% rostered, 5% FAAB

Talk about desperation, rostering a Texan at this point in the season means you are in serious trouble. However, Johnson is seeing consistent targets, the offense did show signs of life against New England, and neither Ingram nor Lindsay are showing anything at all.

Drops: No one, if you have a warm body hold on for dear life.

Waiver Wire Wide Receivers Week 5

Kadarius Toney, 18% rostered, 75-95% FAAB

If Toney is available go ahead and blow the rest of your budget on him. He’s flat out better than every other receiver on the team. He likely won’t approach these numbers again but there is no way the Giants take him off the field.

Darnell Mooney, 45% rostered, 25% FAAB

The Bears are going to fall behind early and will be forced to let Fields try to win the game. This means another big game for Mooney. If he was dropped in your league snatch him up ahead of this game.

Marquez Callaway, 30% rostered, 25% FAAB

Saints have a bye coming up, and yes Michael Thomas is on his way back, and yes they still only let Jameis pass 30 times a game, but he has skills, the opportunity will still be there after Thomas returns, and the Saints might come out of the bye with a more aggressive offense more suited to Callaway’s skill set. Worth a stash.

Rondale Moore, 40% rostered, 25% FAAB

No big week but snap share is rising, Maxx Williams is out with a knee injury, and he’s on one of the most prolific offenses in football. Rather than banking on talent with a lesser QB, opt for Rondale’s excellent situation and steadily rising opportunity.

Drops: Juju, Elijah Moore

Waiver Wire Tight Ends Week 5

Honestly tight end this year is just a whole lot of nothing. The best options are name like Ricky Seals Jones, Hunter Henry, and Dan Arnold, a depressing mi of limited ability and opportunity. Focus on the WRs and RBs as nothing is really emerging at tight end. Maybe a buy-low offer for TJ Hockenson if you are in need.

Streaming DST Picks

Cincinnati Bengals vs Detroit Lions: Hey, it worked fr Minnesota, and Detroit looks absolutely lost right now and just lost their best receiver.

Miami vs Jacksonville (UK): The Jets+London made the Falcons a winning DST start. Why not Miami?

Waiver Wire Week 4

Week 4 had some crazy stat-lines, and the craziest goes to Daniel Jones, who absolutely wrecked the Saints’ 7th-ranked defense on Sunday. I talked about Daniel’s potential breakout in my QB Deep Dive last week, so if you are playing Superflex and need to know who is on the rise for your QB2 slot, check back here later in the week for that column.

Waiver Wire Week 4 Quarterbacks

Daniel Jones, 31% rostered, 50% FAAB

Jones is the top WW add in all superflex leagues if available. Hell I would even put in a claim for him in start-1QB leagues just to see if last week was not an aberration. The return of John Ross definitely helped, as he grabbed 77 of Jones’s 402 yards and one of his 2 TDs. Jones’s uncharacteristic performance came against a good defense, and his rushing ability is still there to prop up down passing weeks.

Trey Lance, 31% rostered, 45% FAAB

Just like with Fields, the team is already talking about Garoppolo taking back the starting spot despite his excellent play. This is really the only reason why he is lower than Jones. Lance only completed 50% of his passes, and his long TD to Samuel did come on busted coverage, but his potential alone makes him worth a grab. 7 for 41 rushing in one half of play is pretty nice.

Justin Fields, 41% rostered, 30% FAAB

Nagy continues to invite death by claiming Dalton will start once healthy. Fields, with Lazor calling the plays, looked nothing short of fantastic despite a meager stat line. Unfortunately Nagy, who is the Mississippi to Urban’s Alabama in terms of being the one coach who consistently keeps the other from being the worst coach in the NFL, is apparently hellbent on holding back his team’s offense and marring the development of Justin Fields, who was regularly making plays that Dalton is simply incapable of. One has to take him seriously, though he better hope no one in Chicago knows where he lives if he carries through with his threat against the team. I really can’t think of any other way to describe starting Dalton after what we saw from Fields Sunday.

Taylor Heinicke, 10% rostered, 30% FAAB

I wrote that despite a bad day against the Bills, Heinicke would make for a good start against the Falcons. He did, once again carrying a defense that is supposed to be carrying the team with a 290-3-0 line and a 127 QBR. He also ran 5 times for 43 yards giving him a great fantasy day. This is the last time he will be available, and barring an injury should start over Fitz when he comes back.

Drops: Gentle Ben, Brissett, Jimmy G, Wentz

Waiver Wire Week 4 Running Backs

Kenny Gainwell, 30% rostered, 45% FAAB

I see a changing of the guard in Philly. Gainwell only saw 3 carries to Sanders’s 7, but he averaged over 10 yards a carry and also caught 6 of 8 targets for 58 yards. Sanders only gained 13 miserable yards on 7 carries. It’s Gainwell SZN from now on.

Damien Williams, 10% rostered, 40% FAAB

Dan Graziono just announced that Montgomery will miss 4-5 weeks and could be out until after the week 10 bye. This makes Williams a must-add in all formats.

Jeremy McNichols, 2% rostered, 15% FAAB

McNichols is not going to take any rushes away from Henry, but he caught 8 of 12 targets for 78 yards in a losing effort against the Jets. When Julio and Brown return these targets will go down, but not to nothing. He gets all third down work in front of Henry and is used more when the Titans are playing from behind late in games.

Branden Bolden, 2% rostered, 5% FAAB

We really should know by now. Despite Ivan Fears pumping up Stevenson he was active but non-existent in the game plan. Bolden got most of the vacated James White targets with 6-6 for 51. Taylor fumbled his only catch so Bolden’s role should be safe for a decade or so.

Drops: JJ Taylor, Ronald Jones, David Johnson, Mark Ingram

Waiver Wire Week 4 Wide Receivers

Darnell Mooney, 38% rostered, 45% FAAB

The Bear’s historically bad offense last week likely caused a lot of folks to give up hope. All it took to get the offense going was removing Nagy from the picture and playing the Lions. Mooney looked nothing short of fantastic. If someone could just kidnap Nagy and lock him in a cabin somewhere until the end of the season, Mooney could be a solid WR2 as he has an obvious connection with Fields. However, Nagy unfortunately exists and even more unfortunately is employed as the Bears head coach for some reason. Firing Nagy would require caring about the success of the franchise, something Bears ownership and management has never shown so much as an inkling towards. Still, the skill is there, the connection is there, and the only thing that can derail it is Dalton’s inevitable insertion back into the starting lineup.

AJ Green, 25% rostered, 30% FAAB

Green is getting targets, is in the most fantasy-friendly offense in the league, and has either a TD or over 100 yards in his past three games. His comeback is officially for real and he belongs on a roster if not in a starting lineup.

Kadarius Toney, 3% rostered, 20% FAAB

Toney saw nine targets in his first start and saw 78% of the snaps and a 22.5% target share. He caught 6 of 9 for 78 yards, and the team spent a first-round draft pick on him. And they actually won the game. I think he’s in line for significant targets going forward even when Shepard and Slayton return.

John Ross, 0% rostered, 15% FAAB

Yes that John Ross. His return to the Giants could not have gone much better, catching 3 passes for 77 yards and a touchdown. However as always he will be boom/bust so roster with that in mind.

Drops: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Rondale Moore, KJ Osborne, Darius Slayton

Waiver Wire Week 4 Tight Ends

Dawson Knox, 48% rostered, 20% FAAB

Knox has finally hit his stride with Buffalo, and honestly I didn’t think it would ever happen. But he has 4 TDs through 3 games and his targets have increased every week in that span, Still will be TD dependent, but there are plenty of those to go around in Buffalo’s offense.

Jared Cook, 48% rostered, 20% FAAB

Cook came back to life last night against Vegas and delivered for the faithful with 6 of 7 targets for 70 yards and a touchdown. Buyer beware his 52% snap share, even split with Parham, but Cook is the one that delivered.

CJ Uzomah, 2% rostered, 5% FAAB

Uzomah had an amazing game, and there is really no reason to doubt his ability. The reason I would advise underbidding is that he basically took on the role of Tee Higgins, who is likely back this week. I don’t see his targets sustaining with Higgins back in the lineup, and he likely reverts back to a td-dependent boom/bust TE the rest of the way.

Drops: Evan Engram, Will Dissly, Anthony Firkser

Waiver Wire Week 4 DST

Minnesota DST vs Detroit, 17% rostered, 3% FAAB

The Vikings held Cleveland in check and I like their chances against Detroit. Goff is proving to be wildly inaccurate and neither running back is getting much going on the ground. Detroit’s offense is limited to small gains, and Minnesota should be able to keep them under 17 points.

Dallas DST vs New York Giants, 23% rostered, 3% FAAB

Dan Quinn has this unit improving, even though they surrendered 28 points to the Panthers. I think Daniel Jones will be hard-pressed to repeat his performance and I like the Cowboys to keep them in check, but I don’t love this play. Can be useful in a spot against a team that seems like they could implode.

Drops: Miami, Washington

Waiver Wire Week 3

Post week 3 is usually when the waiver wire starts to thin, but it can also be a huge opportunity for long term adds. Once you have three weeks there is enough data to make better decisions, and guys that started slow and were the victim of hasty drops become available.

Waiver Wire Quarterbacks: Superflex

Trey Lance, 34% rostered, 25% FAAB

Jimmy G is holding the Niners back. He’s not bad, and they almost won against the Packers, but this offense needs an extra gear and I think Shanahan knows it. He won’t start against Seattle but he may start the following week. Bbbut Fields! Unlike the Bears the Niners have an o-line and a head coach.

Mac Jones, 20% rostered, FAAB 10%

To those just reading the stats it looks like Jones had a meltdown game and they’re not totally wrong. But at least one of his interceptions bounced off Smiths hands and into a defenders. And the Pats are 1-2. But consider that he lost James White, he was the number 1 rusher on the team (what?!) and finally was put in a position where he had to pass to give his team a chance to win. Someone pointed out that McDaniels is not helping Jones with a conservative game plan. That won’t be an option against the Bucs and frankly they looked helpless against Stafford and the Rams passing game.

Taylor Heinicke, 6% rostered, FAAB 10%

Heinicke looked predictably bad against the Bills. His fantasy score was above average and the WFT doesn’t have any other options. He gets Atlanta this week who may not be such a cake matchup after they shut down Daniel Jones.

Drops: Ben Roethlisberger, Zach Wilson, Matt Ryan

Waiver Wire Running Backs

Chuba Hubbard, 26% rostered, FAAB 10%

I wouldn’t spend too much here as I don’t expect him to play more than 1 game. CMC will be back soon, otherwise he would be on IR.

Rhamondre Stevenson, 10% rostered, FAAB 10%

If you missed the part about Mac Jones being the leading rusher on his team, MAC JONES WAS THE LEADING RUSHER ON HIS TEAM. Redshirt year over for Stevenson, though this will be a tough start against the Bucs.

JJ Taylor, 1% rostered, 1% FAAB

James White is out indefinitely and Taylor is the most likely replacement in the pass-catching RB role, though it could be N’Keal Harry.

Drops: Gainwell, Hyde, Jones Jr, Ingram

Waiver Wire Wide Receivers

Emmanuel Sanders, 27% rostered, FAAB 40%

Sanders has season-long WR3 potential averaging 6 targets a game. Last weeks breakout won’t be the norm but he should provide a 5-catch 60-yard floor with breakout weeks like last week. Don’t be afraid to spend to get him.

AJ Green, 15% rostered, FAAB 15%

Another guy getting a steady 6 targets a game, he had a TD in week 2 and went 5 for 112 last week. A mix of TD potential and yards should provide safe WR3 numbers going forward.

Hunter Renfrow, 12% rostered, FAAB 10%

Another guy seeing steady targets, but less sexy than the first two. Renfrow is a better route runner than you think and has earned the trust of Derek Carr. 7.5 targets a game and got a TD last week.

Drops: Elijah Moore, Agholor, Zach Pascal

Waiver Wire Tight Ends

Mike Gesicki, 56% rostered, FAAB 30%

Even though Gesicki is rostered in over half of leagues I felt I had to include him because the likelihood that he was dropped seems higher than this percentage. He saw 12 targets last week. That alone is reason to prioritize him, but he caught 10 of them for 86 yards. At an incredibly thin position, he is not only delivering value but doing it after a change at QB.

Dalton Schultz, 3% rostered, FAAB 25%

Schultz was the clear winner in the TE battle in Dallas last night and managed to haul in two scores along with 80 yards on 7 targets. Even with Jarwin seeing some work, this passing game is productive enough to support a TE1 along with CeeDee and Cooper. Schultz was the clear winner over Jarwin last night, who only saw 2 targets and gained 14 yards.

Tyler Conklin, 4% rostered, FAAB 10%

Conklin’s 8 targets came at the expense of KJ Osborne, who fell back to earth in week 3. They may trade target weeks as teams have to choose who to cover. Still worth a shot to see if he can maintain a floor.

Zach Ertz, 25% Rostered, FAAB 10%

Ertz looked like the favored TE to me in Philly last night, and Hurts showed he won’t wilt after a rough start. Ertz did not look washed up, and turned 7 targets into a productive 53 yards and a score. After seeing just 2 targets in each of his first two games, tonight may be a turning point or a blip. Worth a shot to see.

Drops: Adam Trautman, Pharoah Brown, Jared Cook, Blake Jarwin, Cole Kmet

Waiver Wire DST

Chicago, 29% rostered, FAAB 10%

Chicago has a good defense, they just can’t absorb the most putrid offense in NFL history. Nagy will be fired midseason which will improve things immediately. This week they get Detroit, a good spot start as the Bears can’t possibly get any worse.

Cincinatti, 5% rostered, FAAB 10%

Thursday night game against the Jags. Cincy has quietly been one of the better defenses all season and are positioned to take away the Jags only real weapon in James Robinson.

Miami, 17% rostered, FAAB 10%

They allowed Vegas a lot of points but made up for that with skill plays. They get a hobbled Carson Wentz and an Indy offense stuck in neutral at home this week.

Drops: New England, Pittsburgh, Las Vegas

Waiver Wire Week 2, Panic Room

Before we get to the waiver wire, let’s enter the panic room and have a good sit.

A few owners (or rosterers, JFC) got to exit the panic room this past weekend. Zeke owners got a good day (16-71-1, 2-26), even though Tony Pollard by every measure had a better day (13-109-1, 3-31). Be happy you got a good day, and Pollard owners might have more than a handcuff. Zeke had the snap share 71% to 34%, but maybe that’s more of a 55-45 after this game.

Owners of the Atlanta passing game (Ryan, Pitts, Ridley) got to exit, though Ridley owners might still have one foot in the door after he turned 10 targets into only 63 yards, but did get a score. Pitts saw only 6 targets which he turned into 5 catches for 73 yards, and still saw no end zone targets and only 1 red zone target. Pitts needs more work.

King Henry quieted doubters and reclaimed his crown as a top-five back, and the best part is he’s been involved in the passing game for two straight games and is making the most of it (9-74). And Tennessee won a game they likely would have lost if not for continuing to focus on Henry.

Saints? Yeah, might be time to panic but I am Wilson-Phillips-ing to Winston for another week. We got one good week, and one frankly terrible week (like 26.2 passer rating bad). He looks scared to throw into tight coverage and his receivers are not separating and creating opportunities. I think Callaway is droppable after two terrible performances, but the entire offense stunk to high hell so maybe this is just a throw away game.

I recommended dropping Tua for Taylor Heinicke in 2QB leagues and I’ll stick by that today. Here is my list of droppable guys before setting out the guys to grab.

The Drop List

Jameis Winston, Tua Tagovailoa, Zach Wilson, Trey Sermon, Boston Scott, Rhamondre Stevenson, Tevin Coleman, Eric Ebron, Devonta Freeman, OJ Howard, Ronald Jones, Gio Bernard, Amon-Ra St. Brown, MVS.

Waiver Wire Week 2

Quarterback

Taylor Heinicke, 4% rostered, 10% FAAB

The sample size on Taylor Heinicke is so small, we really have no idea what we can expect from the surprise star of Thursday night. In a game and a half this season, he has played as well as anyone could have expected him to. Last week he had more completed air yards/completion (CAY%) than Justin Herbert (7.5 to 6.8) despite a higher drop % (8.7% to 13.3%). Fast forward a week, the CAY% goes down to 5.6 but he gets 74% completion leading to 336 yards with two scores and a pick. It’s enough to make you wonder what he can do going forward. Chances are it’s enough to keep Fitzpatrick on the bench. He gets Buffalo next.

Daniel Jones, 20% rostered, 8% FAAB

I don’t like Jones, but if the Giants are going to continue to feature him in the run game, that could make up for a lot of his deficiencies. He ran 9 times for 95 yards and had a long TD called back due to penalty, which would have put him on par with Lamar Jackson in terms of QB rushing for the week. He wasn’t bad as a passer either, finishing with 249 and 1 TD and a 102.2 rating, so him vs Heinicke comes down to how your league rewards passing vs rushing.

Teddy Bridgewater, 18% rostered, 8% FAAB

Bridge is probably not available in most Superflex leagues, but just in case he is, he’s worth a pickup. The only reason I don’t have him higher is that he has faced two pretty terrible defenses so far (Jaguars, 27th in passing yards allowed; Giants 25th) but his next two opponents are actually worse (Ravens 32nd, Steelers 29th). He had 328 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions last week. Pretty promising so far.

Sam Darnold, 15% rostered, 7% FAAB

Darnold has strung two good games together against the Jets and New Orleans, and could make for a good QB2 if things keep going his way. His upcoming schedule looks good as well with tilts against the Texans and Cowboys up next, plus dates against the Giants in week 7 and Atlanta in week 8.

Mac Jones, 25% rostered, 5% FAAB

Jones disappointed fantasy managers due to an absolute rout of the Jets, where he really didn’t need to complete long passes or attempt many (30) to get the win. Three of his next 4 games (against the Saints, Bucs, and Cowboys) are going to require more of an offensive output to win, and none of them have what one would call stout pass defenses.

Davis Mills, 0% rostered, 1% FAAB

This is a true desperation, warm-body-needed play as Mills has appeared completely unprepared for NFL action in both the preseason and his limited play last week. That being said, deep Superflex leagues and 2QB leagues occasionally present these warm-body needs and he fits that category.

Running Backs

Cordarelle Patterson, 16% rostered, 15% FAAB

Probably everyone has picked up and dropped Patterson over the years, but his situation in Atlanta is probably the best he’s had in his career. He’s the best back on the team, his team is going to need to utilize his receiving skills, and he’ll be the back on the field when the team is down big, a scenario likely to repeat itself all season. Further, Smith has shown a preference for throwing behind the sticks on third down and relying on YAC to pick up the first.

JD McKissic, 29% rostered, 14% FAAB

McKissic showed that he is not going anywhere this past Thursday. He vultured a TD in the first half and caught a long 56-yard pass as well. He was on the field for 44% of the snaps and that share could grow. Further, Washington is 25th in total defense this season, meaning they could need to lean on the pass more than the run to keep them in games.

Sony Michel, 60% rostered, 12% FAAB

Michel could have been dropped in your league and depending on the severity of Henderson’s rib injury, could be in line for starter snaps. It’s week 2 and Henderson is already injured. I don’t see him getting Henderson’s 100% snap share if he is the lead back, but 4.6 ypc is nothing to sneeze at.

Wide Receiver

Rondale Moore, 35% rostered, 35% FAAB

There is a chance that Rondale got dropped for one of the hot preseason names, or after a disappointing week 1 finish. He’s got the ability, is on the most exciting offense in the NFL with the best QB through 2 weeks, and saw a team-high 8 targets despite just a 46% snap share. Green is done, Kirk is inconsistent. Moore could be the WR2 going forward.

KJ Osborne, 4% rostered, 20% FAAB

If there was a WR on only 4% of teams that got 76 yards receiving week 1 and 91 and a touch week 2, you’d be interested right? That player is KJ Osborne for the Vikings, who saw a 59% snap share and seems to be the locked in WR3 for the Vikings. If you’re holding on to a Jets receiver not named Elijah Moore, I think you have an instant chance for improving your team.

Michael Pittman Jr, 61% rostered, 20% FAAB

Can you say break out game? Pittman caught 8 of 12 targets for 123 yards against the Rams, and should be the teams WR1 even with Hilton back. 12 targets was twice the number Pascal got, and should be a consistent number as the Colts are relying less on Nyhiem Hines in the passing game. Probably not available but worth a look.

Quintez Cephus, 2% rostered, 15% FAAB

2 touchdowns through 2 games. Second only to TJ Hockenson in targets, 89% snap share. He’s clearly establishing himself as the WR1 on the Lions, who believe it or not are currently 12th in the league in passing yards. I can see week to week consistency in the range of 60-80 yards and a good shot at a touchdown.

Tight End

Pat Friermuth, 7% rostered, 2% FAAB

Finding a TE on the WW that isn’t completely TD dependent is really hard. While Pat only saw 4 targets last week for a measly 36 yards, he saw twice that of Ebron who went catchless. The Steelers typically do not feature a tight end so keep that in mind, but he did see a 59% snap share. I see that rising as Ebron becomes the forgotten man in Pittsburgh. That translating into reliable fantasy production is a longshot.

Evan Engram, 32% rostered, 2% FAAB

Speaking of longshots, what are the odds of Engram playing half the season? He looked good in preseason before leaving the final game with a calf injury that has kept him sidelined so far. Always a target hog with decent talent, if Engram can return and if he can cure his 2020 case of the drops, he should produce. That’s a lot of ifs.

DST

Carolina, 22% rostered, 20% FAAB

They basically blanked the Saints, confusing them with blanket coverage and an unexpectedly ferocious pass rush. They are the #1 ranked defense in the NFL. And they get Houston on a Thursday night starting an absolutely terrible rookie QB. There are few perfect storms in fantasy, and this is one. They could set record highs in your league for DST scoring, and I don’t absolutely hate their matchup with the Cowboys the next week as the Boys didn’t exactly light the world on fire against the Chargers. Spend on this one if you start DST.

Las Vegas, 3% rostered, 5% FAAB

Is Vegas a good defense? They are in my leagues. Not set the world on fire, but consistent and against two teams with fairly good offenses in Baltimore and the Steelers. They get Miami this week so they are worth a weekly stream.

Bad Decisions, Waiver Wire Answers Week 1

We all make bad decisions. The first part of this column is not about bad decisions you made so much as bad calls I made, we all made, when staring at reality and instead choosing to believe a fantasy. We all do it. Sometimes the pull of a narrative is just too strong to resist.

And sometimes we are just dealing with incomplete or imperfect information, like the San Francisco running back room. Sometimes you simply can’t see things coming because you are not part of the franchise, or watching practice everyday.

But sometimes we all just ignore the news that doesn’t fit our narrative of how we want the season to be, either because of the players that fell to us in the draft, or who we root for, or who we root against (in my case, Antonio “Whole Lotta Money” Brown).

Bad Decisions

Believing in FitzMagic

This is how I will always remember Fitzpatrick. Coming on after one of the most ballin fantasy performances of all time, blinged up, and showing his trademark sense of humor and humility in an industry that takes itself waaaaay too seriously. We all wanted this guy to win, to get his shot, and to succeed.

Sure you can’t see injuries coming, but let’s face it, we all knew the narrative was a little too perfect to work. Fitz has been sent to IR after a hip subluxation following a fairly mild hit. He’s 8 weeks out from returning, but let’s face it, that’s it. Taylor Heinicke is a good enough backup and deserves a shot too, and if he isn’t, Cam is out there looking for a team and would be an upgrade over both at this point.

Believing that Zach Wilson Can Handle Pressure

15 plays. 14 yards. 3 Punts. That was the Jets first quarter against the Panthers. Interception, turnover on downs, punt. That was the Jets second quarter against the Panthers.

Wilson took 6 sacks, and his first TD of the day came when Corey Davis was literally all by himself in the end zone. Wilson did manage to salvage his day with 258 passing and 2 TDs and put together a decent fantasy performance, but this was a mirage. Losing Mehki Becton for multiple games due to a knee injury means that the pressure is only going to ratchet up from here. There are safer waters in the QB2 market on the waiver wire.

Urban Meyer

Holy shit dude! There is no interpretation of this picture where you tell me Shaquille Quarterman is not already thinking about killing Urban Meyer. He’s burning lasers into the back of his head. And why wouldn’t he be?

This bad decision tree goes back to Shahid Khan and his circus-ringmaster mustache that apparently has grown both ways and is currently strangling his pre-frontal cortex. Anyone who knew Urban Meyer at ALL as a college coach knew he was anything but stable. Mentally, morally, you name it. The bad decision cascade, which is well documented but worth revisiting just for the fun of it, goes something like this:

Khan hires Urban Meyer out of retirement, to rebuild the league’s worst franchise
Urban hires a staffer known for racist tirades, begins to lose locker room
Urban drafts a running back instead of o-line round 1, alienates prime asset
Urban brings on Tim Tebow, insulting everyone on team, further loses locker room
Urban manufactures a fake QB competition, loses valuable experience for Trevor
Urban treats professionals like college kids, yells at them during practice, loses locker room
Urban trades Minshew for nothing, with no one behind Trevor Lawrence

Our bad decision, at least on some counts, is going along for the ride. Lawrence and Chark both had good fantasy days, but the rest of the team, notably Shenault and Robinson, did not. I would not drop anyone yet, but I would consider fielding reasonable offers for Robinson, who saw only 5 carries to Hyde’s 9, simply because we already know that Meyer doesn’t get basic fundamentals of football (such as its a young man’s game) and can’t be trusted to make obvious good decisions.

Trying to Pull Value out of the Jets Backfield

I was guilty as I signed Ty Johnson prior to kickoff in one league to replace Gus Edwards. All three Jets backs averaged under 4 ypc and none saw more than 9 carries. Ty Johnson was the best of the three with 3.8 per carry, but with Becton down it’s best to avoid this altogether.

Waiver Wire Answers Week 1

QB Answers

Mac Jones, 26% Rostered, FAAB 20%

If you are dealing with either Fitz’s injury, or have an itchy trigger finger on Matt Ryan or Zach Wilson, look no further than Mac Jones. He did everything you could really ask a rookie quarterback to do, and likely would have won the game had Harris not fumbled on what should have been a game-winning drive. There are better week 1 performers out there with smaller roster percentages, but I really like Jones as a QB2 going forward. Granted, he is a rookie and some of the other names here could outperform him, but I like his upside.

Derek Carr, 22% Rostered, FAAB 35%

Carr looked really good and actually started finding his receivers not named Darren Waller late last night. He connected with Henry Ruggs a couple times, peppered Bryan Edwards on the final drive in regulation and in overtime, and hit Zay Jones for the game-winning TD in overtime. Probably was drafted in most Superflex leagues but definitely worth an add if not.

Jared Goff, 7% Rostered, FAAB 20%

Goff is one of the vets who played well above expectations on Sunday, and is more likely to have gone undrafted in shallow Superflex leagues or leagues with position limits. 338 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 pick, and more fight than I previously thought. While San Francisco was without Jason Verrett in the fourth, that’s not enough to discount this performance. It is possible that Goff is better than he appeared in LA, with Sean McVay controlling his every move.

RB Answers

Elijah Mitchell, 10% Rostered, FAAB 80%

While no one really saw this coming, this is really the fault of the fantasy hive mind. We heard nothing but Trey Sermon from the fantasy community all offseason, but did we really hear ringing endorsements from the coaches? Or beat writers? When Sermon was deactivated Sunday early, this was the chance to grab Mitchell. Now? Likely you’ll have to spend the majority of your FAAB to get him, but it might be worth it. There’s no reason to think he doesn’t grab hold of this backfield and keep it all year.

Mark Ingram, 21% Rostered, FAAB 20%

Ingram had a 3.3 ypc but saw 26 carries and gained 86 yards. While I don’t expect him to continue to dominate carries as he did against the lowly Jags, you can’t really argue with that amount of carry dominance on the waiver wire at running back. Still, I wouldn’t overspend to get him.

Tony Jones Jr., 23% Rostered, FAAB 18%

Jones was an obvious pickup before week 1 with the release of Latavius Murray, but he erased any doubts about picking up exactly where Murray left off on Sunday with a solid performance against the Packers. Jones got a 35% snap share compared with Alvin Kamara’s 73%, and got 11 carries to Kamara’s 20. I think it would take a Kamara injury to make Jones an true starter this year, but there are worse options to have in your flex spot

Kenneth Gainwell, 9% Rostered, FAAB 15%

Gainwell has a clear hold on the #2 back duties over Boston Scott and looks poised to keep the role. He got 9 carries (second behind Miles Sanders) and turned that into 37 yards and a touchdown. I see his role growing in this backfield, but I am also a bit worried about Hurts’s rushing production causing weekly turbulence in his output if he doesn’t see more than the 3 targets he got Sunday.

Cordarelle Patterson, 3% Rostered, FAAB 5%

I know, I know. I hate even typing this but Patterson is currently the best runner the Falcons have, and that’s a really sad statement. The entire offense for the Falcons was predictable and chicken-shit. I’ve never seen more give-up plays from a team loaded with playmakers in the passing game. Patterson was really the lone bright spot as Arthur Smith continued to try and force the run despite it clearly not working with Mike Davis. He’s worth a shot if you invested in the Ravens backfield in the draft.

WR Answers

Sterling Shepard is rostered in 39% of leagues

Sterling Shepard, 39% Rostered, FAAB 20%

Maybe the new number did something for him, as Shepard led the team in targets (9), receptions (7), and yards (113) while scoring the team’s only touchdown. I don’t expect things to get much better for the Giants offense, but I don’t think they can get much worse than this tilt against a really good Broncos secondary. Shepard is absolutely worth an add even if it means letting go of a preseason darling like Marquez Callaway or Elijah Moore.

Tim Patrick, 2% Rostered, FAAB 15%

Jerry Jeudy is looking at an extended absence with a high-ankle sprain, and Patrick is the most likely beneficiary. Patrick saw a 70% snap share in this game vs just a 36% for the speedier Hamler, and he did get one of Teddy’s two touchdowns to go with his 39 yards receiving. Patrick is the injury replacement to own in Denver.

Sammy Watkins, 14% Rostered, FAAB 5%

Watkins is starting and will be on the field for most of the snaps, and I think this is with Bateman back healthy. He caught only half of his 8 targets, but one of them was a long pass that gave him 96 receiving for the day. Still, I wouldn’t chase points here as the Ravens are still very much in flux as they are searching for an offensive identity following massive injuries to their running backs. I think most weeks Watkins will be frustrating to own.

Christian Kirk, 15% Rostered, FAAB 5%

5 targets, 5 catches, 70 yards, 2 touchdowns. Can you say unsustainable? I love Kirk for Best Ball leagues. I would hate to own him for H2H leagues. Still, Rondale Moore is not ready to take over the slot completely, and as predicted AJ Green simply does not have it anymore. That means opportunity for both Moore and Kirk, but predicting which one will go off each week will be a nightmare.

Trent Sherfield, 2% Rostered, FAAB 5%

Soooo there was a lot we did not see coming on the Niners side in this game, and chief among them was Aiyuk being a total non-factor. As in did not start (Niners started two TEs and a FB). As in only 47% snap share. As in 0 targets. This is either a huge message to Aiyuk to improve his play, or a recognition that Sherfield is maybe a better option for the team. Kyle Shanahan suggested it’s the latter in his post-game remarks on Monday:

I just think he’s got a better person behind him this year in training camp and with Aiyuk missing some time and how well [WR] Trent Sherfield played and especially with Aiyuk missing some time heading into that game, it wasn’t a very tough decision.
Kyle Shanahan, Monday

Read the whole article as it presents some interesting questions, such as why Aiyuk was fielding punts if his hamstring was hurt. But there are three possible outcomes: Aiyuk plays his way back into a full-time starting role, or he and Sherfield continue to split time which Shanahan suggested he was fine with, or Sherfield overtakes Aiyuk for a starting role opposite Samuel. I think the middle option is the most likely which means half a role as the third pass-catching option in this offense, but Lance likes Sherfield, and Lance will take over at some point.

TE Answers

Cole Kmet, 34% Rostered, 8% FAAB

The good news is that Kmet saw a 74% snap share, and there’s no way that Nagy can continue to trot out a largely washed up Andy Dalton and keep his job. Kmet will benefit from Fields being inserted, but I don’t know if that turns him into every-week starter material. Better things are coming, and the snap share is there.

Juwan Johnson, 11% Rostered, 5% FAAB

Juwan Johnson’s stat line from week 1 is exactly the kind of stat line you should ignore: 3-3 for 21 yards and 2 touchdowns. Just not going to happen again. But, this was an incredibly weird game. Winston threw for 5 TDs and under 150 yards. The Saints absolutely annihilated the Packers, who many expect to be one of the best offenses in the league this year. But it’s possible that Trautman is not the clear-cut TE1 for this team. Trautman dominated snap share and got 3 more targets than Johnson, but only caught three for 18 yards. I’d be surprised if Johnson’s 19% snap share doesn’t increase dramatically.