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Superflex QB Rankings Week 3

Week 3 is going to be a tie-breaker data point in many of our most pressing QB questions. Is Jameis Winston a league-winner or about to be benched? Is Dak going to finish as a top 5 QB? Can Murray keep it up all year? Can Trevor Lawrence survive the incompetence of Urban Meyer? Let’s try and answer all these questions as we look at Superflex QB Rankings for Week 3.

Quarterbacks

Rank	Name	Opponent
1	Kyler Murray	Jaguars
2	Patrick Mahomes	Chargers
3	Lamar Jackson	Lions
4	Russell Wilson	Vikings
5	Jalen Hurts	Cowboys
6	Aaron Rodgers	49ers
7	Tom Brady	Rams
8	Daniel Jones	Falcons
9	Dak Prescott	Eagles
10	Josh Allen	WFT
11	Matt Stafford	Bucs
12	Derek Carr	Dolphins
13	Kirk Cousins	Seahawks
14	Joe Burrow	Steelers
15	Sam Darnold	Texans
16	Matt Ryan	Giants
17	Justin Herbert	Chiefs
18	Teddy Bridgewater	Jets
19	Mac Jones	Patriots
20	Baker Mayfield	Bears
21	Taylor Heinicke	Bills
22	Justin Fields	Browns
23	Jameis Winston	Patriots
24	Ryan Tannehill	Colts
25	Jared Goff	Ravens
26	Trevor Lawrence	Cardinals
27	Ben Roethlisberger	Bengals
28	Zach Wilson	Broncos
29	Carson Wentz	Titans
30	Jimmy Garroppolo	Packers
31	Jacoby Brissett	Raiders
32	Davis Mills	Panthers
33	Taysom Hill	Patriots

It’s hard not to put someone who has posted over 330 yards and 3 TDs his first two games, but Patrick Mahomes has to take a backseat to Kyler Murray getting the easily beatable Jags passing defense this week. Heaven help teams playing Kyler Murray this week.

Lamar Jackson HAS developed as a passer, or maybe with the running back situation he’s simply being asked to pass more. He looks better in every facet of the game this year and could make a serious run at MVP if he can carry this hobbled team into the playoffs on his back. He gets the Lions who are 21st against the pass after helping along Aaron Rodger’s return to the top five.

Speaking of which, it’s kind of pointless to try and put much separation between Rodgers, Brady, Wilson, and Hurts this week as all are great plays in plus matchups. Hurts gets to join this elite group in the rankings going against the Cowboy’s 31st ranked pass defense, and 20th ranked rush defense.

It feels like sacrilege to put Daniel Jones ahead of Dak Prescott, but Jones is using his legs to gain yards more consistently and more effectively so far this year, and I don’t expect that to change much against the Falcons in what should be a close game. Meanwhile, speculation that Dak may not be 100% is fueled by his lack of an efficient deep ball last week against the Chargers. His only pass of 25+ yards was his lone interception, and he was 1-4 beyond 15 yards.

Josh Allen just hasn’t been Josh Allen yet this year, though it must be acknowledged they could have just as easily beat the Dolphins last Sunday with Mitch Trubisky under center, or a fan from the crowd for that matter. More will be needed to beat WFT this week, but not much more as Washington is ranked 24th against the pass. Stafford and Carr are also great plays going against the Bucs and the Dolphins respectively.

Further down the rankings is where it gets interesting. Joe Burrow is openly advocating for more deep balls to Higgins and Chase, which their owners would love to see. Burrow was telgraphing his reads to the Bears on Sunday which led to three straight picks in three pass attempts. So it will be interesting to see if the former 1st overall pick can develop the finer parts of his game that will allow him to connect on more deep passes against the Steelers 29th ranked pass defense.

Matt Ryan and the entire Falcons offense woke up against the Bucs, and looked poised to make a game of hit before Ryan threw two pick sixes to give the game away. Does this cause Arthur Smith to go more conservative, or does he live and die by Matt Ryan and utilizing his weapons downfield. Ryan took only two shots of 20 yards or more, both incomplete.

Kirk Cousins isn now on a team that is no longer avoiding the pass. Minnesota ranks 9th in the league in pass attempts and he’s making the most of it, harnessing the deep ball well and being efficient with his passes. Of his seven longest passes, three were touchdowns.

I think Teddy Bridgewater continues his hot streak against the Jets this week, though I don’t see another 300+ yard effort as the Broncos will absolutely dismantle Zach Wilson and lean on their running backs to win the game. Something like 280 and 2, which is still great value for the investment.

Which brings us to Jameis Winston. He is such a puzzle that I devoted an entire article to his enigma. He was, in short, awful last week. Let’s take a look at just how awful.

It’s a rare situation where a player stands an equal chance of emerging as a hero that wins the game for his team and getting benched for the season, but that’s where we are. The Winston faithful (of which I am one) knew this was going to be a wild ride, but man, this is wild.

My favorite QB2 dart throws this week are Taylor Heinicke, Ryan Tannehill, and Trevor Lawrence. This is not the week to start Mac Jones as I expect the Pats to control the game and not throw much.

How Do You Unpound the Table?

If you’re one of the 7 readers who have been following this site since I launched in July, you know there has been one consistent theme: Jameis Winston is the key to winning your superflex league.

I will be the first to say that Winston looked absolutely terrible on Sunday. My weekly matchups and possibly seasons melted away as I watched hesitation after hesitation, sack after sack, and unfortunately interception upon interception.

Week 1 against the Packers Winston looked as good as the offense needed him to be. They got away with short passes to the backs and tight ends, converted in the red zone, and he hit a deep pass when it was available to ice the game. My late-round target appeared to be a league-winner in the making. Yet there was weirdness: the Packers absolutely rolled over, the Saints played uber conservative, and Winston threw 5 TD passes while passing for under 150 yards. That just doesn’t happen.

Week 2 Jameis looked leagues worse than he did in his most turnover prone games at Tampa Bay. Yes he got pressured on a whopping 65% of his dropbacks, but both Winston and Payton blamed much of that on not making adjustments at the line.

“I have to take responsibility for communicating with the offensive line,” Winston said. “Got to get us in better protections. Just communicate better out there.”
– Jameis Winston

While it’s good to see Jameis take responsibility, isn’t this an admission we would expect from a rookie instead of a multi-year vet?

Does this mean that Winston is simply not a mature and fully-formed QB, despite years in the league and a full year learning behind one of the games best? Quite possibly. Does it mean that when he goes off the rails, he takes the entire offense down with him?

This is Winston’s first play of the game, pre-snap. The play is a play-action pass faking left. The Panthers are showing five on the line, corners and safeties are up tight at the line as well.

Winston likely should have seen this sack coming, and changed out of the pass into a run. Hasson Reddick runs basically untouched and takes Winston down.

So we have a chicken-egg question of sorts — was Winston the victim of terrible protection, or its architect? Should we allow for the fact that the entire team just had a terrible game, after all no one is saying drop Alvin Kamara who rushed 8 times for 5 yards?

Let’s take a look at another sack from the second quarter.

5 guys on the line with another just off the line, and 9 defenders within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Winston did not change to a run, and once again the results were disastrous. Sack deep, drive over.

One the one hand, it’s really easy and tempting to say “same ole Jameis” and move on. Both Heinicke and Daniel Jones appear to be better options right now, and the Saints get the Patriots next. Another outing like last week and time is all but certainly up for Jameis as New Orleans starting QB. HIll is there, it was a tight competition in camp, and no one would question the switch.

But is it the right way to think about this? Even when Jameis was throwing 30 picks, he was still throwing for tons of yards and winning a lot of fantasy leagues. Right now we have a sample of two data points, one good but not great, and one absolutely horrific.

One thing I tell myself I will stop doing every year is overreacting to one bad week. Jameis Winston just had a really, really bad week. I’m rolling with Jameis against the Pats and continuing to bet long on what I saw coming together in the preseason and week 1. If I’m wrong then at least I’m wrong betting on something I believed in, as opposed to wrong because I gave up on something too early.

Waiver Wire Week 2, Panic Room

Before we get to the waiver wire, let’s enter the panic room and have a good sit.

A few owners (or rosterers, JFC) got to exit the panic room this past weekend. Zeke owners got a good day (16-71-1, 2-26), even though Tony Pollard by every measure had a better day (13-109-1, 3-31). Be happy you got a good day, and Pollard owners might have more than a handcuff. Zeke had the snap share 71% to 34%, but maybe that’s more of a 55-45 after this game.

Owners of the Atlanta passing game (Ryan, Pitts, Ridley) got to exit, though Ridley owners might still have one foot in the door after he turned 10 targets into only 63 yards, but did get a score. Pitts saw only 6 targets which he turned into 5 catches for 73 yards, and still saw no end zone targets and only 1 red zone target. Pitts needs more work.

King Henry quieted doubters and reclaimed his crown as a top-five back, and the best part is he’s been involved in the passing game for two straight games and is making the most of it (9-74). And Tennessee won a game they likely would have lost if not for continuing to focus on Henry.

Saints? Yeah, might be time to panic but I am Wilson-Phillips-ing to Winston for another week. We got one good week, and one frankly terrible week (like 26.2 passer rating bad). He looks scared to throw into tight coverage and his receivers are not separating and creating opportunities. I think Callaway is droppable after two terrible performances, but the entire offense stunk to high hell so maybe this is just a throw away game.

I recommended dropping Tua for Taylor Heinicke in 2QB leagues and I’ll stick by that today. Here is my list of droppable guys before setting out the guys to grab.

The Drop List

Jameis Winston, Tua Tagovailoa, Zach Wilson, Trey Sermon, Boston Scott, Rhamondre Stevenson, Tevin Coleman, Eric Ebron, Devonta Freeman, OJ Howard, Ronald Jones, Gio Bernard, Amon-Ra St. Brown, MVS.

Waiver Wire Week 2

Quarterback

Taylor Heinicke, 4% rostered, 10% FAAB

The sample size on Taylor Heinicke is so small, we really have no idea what we can expect from the surprise star of Thursday night. In a game and a half this season, he has played as well as anyone could have expected him to. Last week he had more completed air yards/completion (CAY%) than Justin Herbert (7.5 to 6.8) despite a higher drop % (8.7% to 13.3%). Fast forward a week, the CAY% goes down to 5.6 but he gets 74% completion leading to 336 yards with two scores and a pick. It’s enough to make you wonder what he can do going forward. Chances are it’s enough to keep Fitzpatrick on the bench. He gets Buffalo next.

Daniel Jones, 20% rostered, 8% FAAB

I don’t like Jones, but if the Giants are going to continue to feature him in the run game, that could make up for a lot of his deficiencies. He ran 9 times for 95 yards and had a long TD called back due to penalty, which would have put him on par with Lamar Jackson in terms of QB rushing for the week. He wasn’t bad as a passer either, finishing with 249 and 1 TD and a 102.2 rating, so him vs Heinicke comes down to how your league rewards passing vs rushing.

Teddy Bridgewater, 18% rostered, 8% FAAB

Bridge is probably not available in most Superflex leagues, but just in case he is, he’s worth a pickup. The only reason I don’t have him higher is that he has faced two pretty terrible defenses so far (Jaguars, 27th in passing yards allowed; Giants 25th) but his next two opponents are actually worse (Ravens 32nd, Steelers 29th). He had 328 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions last week. Pretty promising so far.

Sam Darnold, 15% rostered, 7% FAAB

Darnold has strung two good games together against the Jets and New Orleans, and could make for a good QB2 if things keep going his way. His upcoming schedule looks good as well with tilts against the Texans and Cowboys up next, plus dates against the Giants in week 7 and Atlanta in week 8.

Mac Jones, 25% rostered, 5% FAAB

Jones disappointed fantasy managers due to an absolute rout of the Jets, where he really didn’t need to complete long passes or attempt many (30) to get the win. Three of his next 4 games (against the Saints, Bucs, and Cowboys) are going to require more of an offensive output to win, and none of them have what one would call stout pass defenses.

Davis Mills, 0% rostered, 1% FAAB

This is a true desperation, warm-body-needed play as Mills has appeared completely unprepared for NFL action in both the preseason and his limited play last week. That being said, deep Superflex leagues and 2QB leagues occasionally present these warm-body needs and he fits that category.

Running Backs

Cordarelle Patterson, 16% rostered, 15% FAAB

Probably everyone has picked up and dropped Patterson over the years, but his situation in Atlanta is probably the best he’s had in his career. He’s the best back on the team, his team is going to need to utilize his receiving skills, and he’ll be the back on the field when the team is down big, a scenario likely to repeat itself all season. Further, Smith has shown a preference for throwing behind the sticks on third down and relying on YAC to pick up the first.

JD McKissic, 29% rostered, 14% FAAB

McKissic showed that he is not going anywhere this past Thursday. He vultured a TD in the first half and caught a long 56-yard pass as well. He was on the field for 44% of the snaps and that share could grow. Further, Washington is 25th in total defense this season, meaning they could need to lean on the pass more than the run to keep them in games.

Sony Michel, 60% rostered, 12% FAAB

Michel could have been dropped in your league and depending on the severity of Henderson’s rib injury, could be in line for starter snaps. It’s week 2 and Henderson is already injured. I don’t see him getting Henderson’s 100% snap share if he is the lead back, but 4.6 ypc is nothing to sneeze at.

Wide Receiver

Rondale Moore, 35% rostered, 35% FAAB

There is a chance that Rondale got dropped for one of the hot preseason names, or after a disappointing week 1 finish. He’s got the ability, is on the most exciting offense in the NFL with the best QB through 2 weeks, and saw a team-high 8 targets despite just a 46% snap share. Green is done, Kirk is inconsistent. Moore could be the WR2 going forward.

KJ Osborne, 4% rostered, 20% FAAB

If there was a WR on only 4% of teams that got 76 yards receiving week 1 and 91 and a touch week 2, you’d be interested right? That player is KJ Osborne for the Vikings, who saw a 59% snap share and seems to be the locked in WR3 for the Vikings. If you’re holding on to a Jets receiver not named Elijah Moore, I think you have an instant chance for improving your team.

Michael Pittman Jr, 61% rostered, 20% FAAB

Can you say break out game? Pittman caught 8 of 12 targets for 123 yards against the Rams, and should be the teams WR1 even with Hilton back. 12 targets was twice the number Pascal got, and should be a consistent number as the Colts are relying less on Nyhiem Hines in the passing game. Probably not available but worth a look.

Quintez Cephus, 2% rostered, 15% FAAB

2 touchdowns through 2 games. Second only to TJ Hockenson in targets, 89% snap share. He’s clearly establishing himself as the WR1 on the Lions, who believe it or not are currently 12th in the league in passing yards. I can see week to week consistency in the range of 60-80 yards and a good shot at a touchdown.

Tight End

Pat Friermuth, 7% rostered, 2% FAAB

Finding a TE on the WW that isn’t completely TD dependent is really hard. While Pat only saw 4 targets last week for a measly 36 yards, he saw twice that of Ebron who went catchless. The Steelers typically do not feature a tight end so keep that in mind, but he did see a 59% snap share. I see that rising as Ebron becomes the forgotten man in Pittsburgh. That translating into reliable fantasy production is a longshot.

Evan Engram, 32% rostered, 2% FAAB

Speaking of longshots, what are the odds of Engram playing half the season? He looked good in preseason before leaving the final game with a calf injury that has kept him sidelined so far. Always a target hog with decent talent, if Engram can return and if he can cure his 2020 case of the drops, he should produce. That’s a lot of ifs.

DST

Carolina, 22% rostered, 20% FAAB

They basically blanked the Saints, confusing them with blanket coverage and an unexpectedly ferocious pass rush. They are the #1 ranked defense in the NFL. And they get Houston on a Thursday night starting an absolutely terrible rookie QB. There are few perfect storms in fantasy, and this is one. They could set record highs in your league for DST scoring, and I don’t absolutely hate their matchup with the Cowboys the next week as the Boys didn’t exactly light the world on fire against the Chargers. Spend on this one if you start DST.

Las Vegas, 3% rostered, 5% FAAB

Is Vegas a good defense? They are in my leagues. Not set the world on fire, but consistent and against two teams with fairly good offenses in Baltimore and the Steelers. They get Miami this week so they are worth a weekly stream.

5 QBs I Would Drop for Taylor Heinicke

First off, I’m pretty sure Taylor Heinicke and Will Poulter were separated at birth. Don’t lie to me and say you can tell them apart.

Second, Heinicke might be a great solution to some really bad QB situations, just in case he wasn’t already grabbed in your Superflex and 2QB leagues. We are already off the some discouraging starts for a few QBs that likely got drafted and he might be your solution. And don’t kid yourself, he can play. Here are 5 guys I would drop Heinicke for if I had them.

#1: Matt Ryan

Is it going to get better in Atlanta? Well, it can’t get any worse. But do we really expect Ryan to bounce back and post 4500 yards and 25 TDs after that absolute travesty in Atlanta? Hell no. At best he will keep Ridley and Pitts from being absolute busts. At worst, he and Arthur Smith take the ship down with them and we are looking at a fantasy wasteland all year long. Either way, I’d rather have Heinicke as a QB2.

#2: Zach Wilson

Dude absolutely needs garbage time to succeed, and just isn’t going to be good when facing pressure. And he’s going to see way worse pressure than he saw from the Panthers in week 1, starting this week and continuing in week 3, 6, and 10. Plus he doesn’t have a receiver nearly as good as Terry McLaurin to make him look good.

#3: Tua Tagovailoa

Will Fuller is out for “personal reasons” and the coach does not know when he will be back. Also, what the hell is this franchise trying to do to this kid? Just absolutely crush his confidence? I don’t see it coming together for Tua this season, and that makes me sad but it is what it is. The team really has not helped him, but I don’t expect him to outperform Heinicke the rest of the season.

#4: Carson Wentz

Wentz is terrible. Pick up Heinicke.

#5: Ben Roethlisberger

Also terrible, and probably a rapist. If you hang with Trump and frighten a porn star, something is wrong with you. Pick up Heinicke.

Tight End Rankings Week 2

QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings

Update: Ertz on track to play, downgrade Goedert

Are people that took Kyle Pitts ahead of TJ Hockenson going to be regretting it all year? If the playcalling doesn’t change immediately in Atlanta, yes, and even if it does Hockenson could stay red hot.

The tight end position as a whole is looking up, but let’s drill in on these two for a look at where Pitts might be going.

First of all, let’s address Arthur Smith’s playcalling. I could write an entire article pointing just how predictable and chicken-shit Smith’s play calls were. Pitts was not in the game on the team’s first trip to the red zone (field goal), and Smith was either running on third and long or passing to the fullback behind the line of scrimmage late in the game down big. In other words, inscrutable, infuriating coaching from the beginning to the end of the Falcons’ humiliating defeat.

However, Pitts did tie for a team-high 8 targets, and was in for 68% of snaps and was usually lined up out wide. In other words, the snap-share aside, he was playing a role much closer to what Julio did for the Falcons than a traditional tight end. Hurst was in for 60%, meaning the Falcons are running a lot of two TE but Pitts was winning out on in 1 TE sets. Further, the game was an absolute embarrassment. It’s hard to believe that Smith sticks to what he did week 1 in week 2.

Let’s compare to TJ Hockenson, who was the best TE not named Kelce, Waller, and Kittle (and was arguably better than Kittle). Hockenson saw 11 targets, and was in on 85% of snaps. If we are taking TJ Hockenson as the goal for Kyle Pitts, given Pitts’s usage and overall game plan week 1, I think that’s attainable. Hock had 3 more targets, a 6.4 ADOT, and more reliance on passing for 1st downs. Pitts had a 7.5 ADOT in what should be the Falcon’s worst game of the season. Hold or buy low folks.

Tight End Rankings Week 2

Rank	Name	Opponent
	Darren Waller	Steelers
	Travis Kelce	Ravens
	George Kittle	Eagles
	TJ Hockenson	Packers
	Mark Andrews	Chiefs
	Rob Gronkowski	Falcons
	Kyle Pitts	Buccaneers
	Logan Thomas	Giants
	Tyler Higbee	Colts
	Noah Fant	Jaguars
	Jonnu Smith	Jets
	Jared Cook	Cowboys
	Pharoah Brown	Browns
	Dallas Goedert	49ers
	James O’Shaugnassey	Broncos
	Cole Kmet	Bengals
	David NJoku	Texans
	Adam Trautman	Panthers
	Gerald Everett	Titans
	Blake Jarwin	Chargers
	Dawson Knox	Dolphins
	Will Dissly	Titans
	Anthony Firkser	Seahawks

Darren Waller is on pace for 350 targets this year as Derek Carr just continues to ignore everyone else on the team. It worked, so don’t expect it to change. Mark Andrews absolutely has to step up against the Chiefs, and maybe watching Kelce do it better from the sidelines will inspire him more than his new contract.

Gronk is back until further notice, and Logan Thomas should be the lone bright spot for the WFT passing game once again with Bradberry blanketing McLaurin. The connection is already there, he’s as good a play as this game will offer. Watch the injury reports on Ertz, if he sits Goedert is a solid TE1 play against the 49ers who just gave up a huge game to Hockenson. Noah Fant should be great against the Jags who let Pharoah Brown (who?) have a big game. As long as Meyer is coach, the Jags will be an easy mark for all offensive playmakers.

Of the TE2 shots I like Cole Kmet against the Bengals, Jonnu Smith against the Jets, and Jared Cook against the paper-thin Cowboys defense. Adam Trautman got 6 targets and an 81% snap-share against the Packers, just the TDs went to the other guy. Of the dart throws he’s the best this week.