Week 11 saw Justin Herbert explode out of his funk to a number 1 QB finish after throwing for 382 yards and three touchdowns while adding 90 yards on the ground. The rushing output was unexpected and likely not a trend.
Hurts was top-five with his three rushing touchdowns, and Trevor Siemian made top five with his three passing TDs.
Mahomes came back to earth with a QB26 finish with just over 200 yards passing and no touchdowns.
Our superflex quarterback sit/start for week 12 is going to be a bit truncated due to the holiday schedule, but there’s also a lot less to figure out at this point in the season.
Obvious QB1 Starts for Week 12
Justin Herbert vs the Broncos: Denver is giving up 1.7 TDs per game the last three and just don’t seem like a formidable defense. No reason to think that then Bolts don’t continue clicking this week.
Josh Allen vs the Saints: New Orleans is middle of the pack in passing yards allowed and the Bills are humming.
Tom Brady vs the Colts: Brady went over 300 yards last week but was a little lacking in the touchdown department. The Colts are not great against the pass and Brady should take advantage.
Aaron Rodgers vs the Rams: Rodgers came back to life last week with 300+ yards, and should be able to pass at will against the Rams who find themselves struggling for an identity coming out of their bye.
Matthew Stafford vs the Packers: Green Bay is only giving up around 200 pass yards a game over their last three, but just surrendered 318 to Kirk Cousins. Stafford should be able to take advantage provided the Rams aren’t immediately put in a negative script. Expect the Rams to lean more heavily on the run game even though the Packers have stiffened against the run as of late (3.5 ypc, 3.1 against the Vikings).
Lamar Jackson vs the Browns: Browns are giving up 5.5 ypc to opponents over their last three. Lamar and the Ravens have been off, maybe they get right in this divisional matchup.
Jalen Hurts vs the Giants: The last time these teams played the Eagles controlled the game throughout and Hurts was not asked to do much at all as a passer. I see something similar but with Hurts getting at least one score rushing and one passing.
Dak Prescott vs the Raiders: No quarterback has been less consistent than Dak, who had a terrible game last week against the Chiefs. The Chiefs defense has been one of the most improved in the NFL over the past six weeks, but Dak needs to find a groove. Thanksgiving day games are usually good for the Cowboys so maybe this is an up week.
Kirk Cousins vs the 49ers: Cousins just ripped the Packers for 300+ yards, and the Packers are a better defense than the 49ers. Cousins has had two above average performances in a row.
Joe Burrow vs the Steelers: The Bengals won their first meeting largely on the ground, and if the Steelers don’t put up more of a fight this could be another Mixon game at the expense of Burrow and the receivers. But I think Tomlin gets the Steelers up for this one and Burrow has to pass in the second half to win.
Russell Wilson vs the WFT: Wilson likely came back too early and has not played well. I think he improves this game and gets a score with his legs.
Derek Carr vs the Cowboys: Tough opponent but Carr and the Raiders can still manage a powerful offense when they want to. Their running game is stuck in the mud so if they want to compete it will have to be on the shoulders of Carr and Waller.
Solid QB2 Superflex Starts Week 12
Ryan Tannehill vs the Patriots: Going against the hottest defense in the league, but Tannehill is heating up and could at least get 250 and 2 scores. In the 2021 QB market that’s good enough to start as a low-end QB1 or high-end QB2.
Cam Newton vs the Dolphins: As expected almost all of Cam’s value comes on the ground. Miami is giving up 4.6 yards per carry but no rushing touchdowns over their last three games. Cam needs to break that trend to have another top-ten week.
Tua Tagovailoa vs the Panthers: Tua looked much more himself against the Jets throwing for 273 and two touchdowns. The Panthers are a much tougher matchup but I still think he is better than the rest of the options at QB2.
Tyrod Taylor vs the Jets: Taylor’s rushing floor makes him deserving of a QB2 spot despite almost no passing production. If you play in leagues with yardage bonuses he is not a recommended play.
Taylor Heinicke vs the Seahawks: The Seattle defense is good at exactly nothing. Heinicke seems to gut out a QB2 performance every week and I don’t see any reason to think the Seahawks will stop him. The porous WFT defense is still ok at stopping the run which is 98% of Seattle’s offense, so time of possession should not be an issue. Fire him up as a midrange QB2.
Jimmy G vs the Vikings: Two straight under 200 passing, Jimmy is just not an exciting option but at least provides a fairly stable floor of about 180 and 2.
Mac Jones vs the Titans: Speaking of unexciting, Mac Jones is the poster boy. Always good for an ugly win, almost never good for a box score, he’s the exact opposite of Jalen Hurts. 223 and 1 is likely.
Sit These QBs in Superflex if You Can
It’s impossible to know the other positions that could slot in or your scoring system, but the below QBs should be sat if possible for better skill player options
Carson Wentz vs the Bucs: Wentz is terrible, as we all know. He adds nothing to his offense and I don’t expect much improvement over last week’s putrid stat line.
Daniel Jones vs the Eagles: Most experiments don’t give absolutely definitive results. The Daniel Jones experiment has. It’s a massive failure.
Teddy Bridgewater: Has settled into the level of performance that kept him from getting starting jobs in New Orleans and Carolina.
Zach Wilson vs the Texans: Probably the only QB out of this group possibly deserving of a start in a Superflex spot, but even against a bad team with a wide receiver going off, we shouldn’t expect much from this kid.
Ben Roethlisberger: The Berger is cooked.
Andy Dalton vs the Lions: Captain checkdown won’t do much, even against one of the league’s worst defenses.
Matt Ryan vs the Jaguars: The Falcons can make any defense look like world-beaters. Smith is totally out of his depth.
Trevor Lawrence vs the Falcons: The only question remaining is whether Urban Meyer has done permanent or only temporary damage.
Baker Mayfield vs the Ravens: Surely Case Keenum would be a better solution at this point?
Trevor Siemian vs the Bills: Wheels started to come off last week, they will fly off against the league’s best defense.
Tim Boyle vs the Bears: Barely a starter and against the Bears on a short week.
