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Preseason Game Observations: August 12

Thursday’s preseason games had some interesting implications for 2QB dynasty and redraft leagues. I’ll be focusing on those as well as a few observations on running backs and wide receivers.

Eagles vs Steelers

Hurts performed better than his stat line and did a few things that showed his stage in the maturation process. For one, he was plugging along nicely on his first drive until Zach Ertz let a perfectly thrown ball bounce off his hands on third down, killing his first drive.

On the next drive Hurts chose to dive, narrowly missing a first down instead of trucking the defender, which ended the drive as well. Had this been a regular season game he likely would have made the extra effort and gotten the first with his legs, but giving up on the play in preseason shows he is thinking the right way to stay under center for the Eagles.

Also, on a play where he was scrambling to his right to extend the play, he threw the ball out of bounds instead of trying to make something happen.

On the other side, Najee Harris looked much better than he did at the HOF game, showing impressive burst and the ability to quickly get to the second level of the defense through trash at the line. He had two runs called back with holding, and on both he gained about 9-10 yards. Neither of the holds freed him and one should not have been called.

JuJu Smith Schuster caught a lot of short passes out of the slot and hauled in all of his targets. While his yards per reception is going to go down, his receptions should go up. Dionte Johnson had a nice game as well.

Patriots vs WFT

This was the truly interesting game. Cam looked a lot like what we saw last year. He did not have a pass deep, and I think never threw further than 10 yards beyond the line. Almost all of yardage came from short passes that Jonnu Smith and James White took long, making their catches at or around the line of scrimmage. Newton narrowly avoided a fumble, and the offense simply was not clicking with him on the field.

Then Mac Jones came on the field.

Jones immediately showed what the Patriots have been seeing in recent practices: accurate throws, quick decisions, excellent pocket presence and footwork. While he was confined mostly to checkdowns, he was making excellent anticipation throws on time, in traffic, and on target. His first drive should have ended with a long touchdown along the left sideline but Kristian Wilkerson let the pass bounce off his hands.

Jones did miss Gunner Olsweski on a deep route later in the game and was obviously upset with himself, but had that been Nelson Agolhor or Kendrick Bourne, both absent, maybe that’s a completion.

Essentially, with Cam under center the offense looked stagnant. It didn’t click. With Mac under center it clicks, and it was obvious to anyone watching the game.

Another Pats camp storyline did not pan out, and that was the ascendence of N’Keal Harry. Whatever he has been showing in practice did not show up on the field, as N’Keal was overshadowed by Kristian Wilkerson. He just wasn’t getting open.

Antonio Gibson got a few carries and three receptions for WFT, but the rest of the offense was pretty boring to watch as the starters only saw a few series. Terry was Terry and Fitz looked sharp. The defense was the star of the show as one would expect.

The Perfect 2QB Draft – Redraft

For the purposes of this article I am assuming the following: 12-team league, 2 starting QB slots, 3WR, 2RB, TE, Flex, K, DST with standard PPR scoring, no roster limits, and five bench spots. Drafting from the ten spot.

Pick 1.10: Go For the Record

The goal in round 1 is to get a player with almost guaranteed separation against almost all of his peers at the position. At the 10 spot in start 2QB leagues, one should expect that McCaffrey, Cook, Mahomes, Murray, Allen, Kamara, and probably Jackson and Henry are gone. To me, the guy that is likely available in late-rounds that offers significant upside over every other player at his position is Davante Adams.

I have Davante projected for over 50 points above the WR2 in HIll, and 122 points over the WR12 in Lamb.

That constitutes the significant advantage over peers I am looking for in round 1. I think Davante makes a serious run at Randy Moss’s 22-TD single-season record in the last dance.

Pick 2.3: Dak is Back

Assuming there is a solid return to health soon, I am targeting Dak Prescott at the 2.3. Normally I would not target a QB in the second and take best available in the third, but I feel Dak (if healthy) has a legit shot at finishing QB1.

His weapons could not possibly be better. HIs defense couldn’t be much worse. This is a lethal combo for QB production and I feel that competing in a 2QB league does require a stud QB1. I would not hate on anyone choosing to gamble and wait at QB, but if Dak is there in the second round in a start 2QB league, I think you have to jump.

I have Dak at 96 fantasy points over QB12 Joe Burrow, and 40 points over Lamar Jackson who I expect to go several slots before him.

Pick 3.10: Don’t Sleep on Dobbins

The spectre of Gus Edwards is depressing Dobbin’s value to the third round. The guy averaged 6 YPC as a rookie, is in line for increased passing down work, and has one of the best defenses in the league meaning there should be meaningful work in the 4th quarters of most games.

I love Dobbins this year and am only waiting to see how heavily Edwards is utilized in camp to move him above the likes of Jonathan Taylor. He screams value in the third. I’m still tweaking my rankings for him but right now I have him finishing as RB8.

Pick 4.3: Out Like a Lamb

Obviously I am buying big on the Dallas offense this season, and yes this is a reach. Cooper’s absence in camp gives Lamb all the room he needs to grab the lion’s share of targets, and I can’t think of a better stack than Dak and Lamb, assuming a full return to health for Dak (I’m not worried but it bears watching).

Not only am I reaching for Lamb, I am likely passing on Chris Carson, who is by far the safer and more sensible pick. He just doesn’t wow me. I don’t see him as a difference maker or league-winner, and I absolutely see Lamb being that this year.

Pairing Lamb and Adams this year would be devastating.

Pick 5.10: Out of the Woods

As tempting as it would be to panic and grab a RB or a second QB here, resist.

Rams WRs are due for a massive uptick this year with Stafford extending drives and increasing ADOT, and I expect Woods to be the main beneficiary. I can’t expect De’Andre Swift to be here, and frankly investing in any Lions players this year is foolish. Grab a key cog on an ascendent offense and close out your starting wide receivers.

Pick 6.3: James Robinson Isn’t Done

Waiting this long on running back carries a ton of risk. But rarely do teams that avoid risk win championships. But I think Robinson will still make for a solid RB2 this year. Why?

HIs offense will improve greatly with a generational talent under center able to extend drives. His understudy, Etienne, has been consistently described as a wide receiver and gadget player that we know Urban Meyer loves to utilize. And we also know Meyer likes to run the ball, a lot.

Robinson’s camp reports have been good, saying he is looking faster than last year. Factoring in just a 5% improvement from his rookie year, I have him as RB15, making him a solid #2.

Pick 7.10: Make the Most of It

Mostert will not average more than 15 carries a game. But for a guy who reached over 500 yards in 8 games last year, averaged over 5 ypc and almost 10 ypr, he can do a lot with a little. I do expect Sermon to be involved. But after watching college tape I think he will not be a rookie phenom that takes over the backfield. And I don’t see him getting passing down work over Mostert.

While Mostert will never be used as a goal-line back, his unbelievable speed makes him a threat to break one every time he touches the ball. The fantasy hive mind has a short memory, and is always distracted by the shiny new toy. Take that to the house, kinda like Mostert did on this one last year.

Pick 8.03: The Carter

We are already hearing the word “mentor” ascribed to Tevin Coleman. Personally I would not mind owning a piece of SF East’s backfield.

The buzz around Carter has been the most positive of the backs, and frankly Coleman has looked cooked since leaving Atlanta, and LaMicheal Perine did very little with his chances last year.

I think Carter is the right rookie for a late-round swing.

Pick 9.10: Antonio Brown

There is literally no player in the NFL who is a bigger douchebag or represents a ticking time-bomb more than Antonio Brown. No one.

Learned his lesson? Ready to focus? Hell no. When you are so cluelessly in love with yourself that you can produce a piece of trash that is so bad it constitutes an insult to auto-tuned mumble-rap (already an egregious insult to hip-hop), there is absolutely no hope for any type of redemption for you.

BUT, unfortunately for the NFL, dude can still play, and he was more of a 1C to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin when playing last year than a WR3. I have him at WR26 which makes him a steal in round 9 and one I can’t pass up, even if I do throw up in my mouth a little.

Pick 10.3: Jameis Winston – Key to Your Championship

I know you have been saying, since about round 5, isn’t this a 2QB draft? Aren’t all the viable QBs getting snatched left and right?

Yes. Except one. This begs a “what if I told you.”

What if I told you the league-leader in passing yards just two years ago would be available in the 10th round in a 2QB league? What if I told you that quarterback played with poor vision and had corrective surgery AFTER this season? And what if I told you this same QB got to sit and learn behind one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, and gets to play for one of the top offensive minds in the NFL, and is about to be handed the keys to one of the better offensive systems of the past decade?

That is exactly what Winston is this year. If his decision-making and turnovers are incurable, then this pick is basically doomed to failure, but this is all about making bets, and I’m putting my money on Winston’s redemption.

Pick 11.10: Taysom Hill – The Backup Plan

I said you had to take risks, not that you can’t hedge. Hill currently has an ADP in the 11th round, and even if Jameis gets named the starter, there is nothing wrong with insurance against an early or mid-season implosion.

If Hill ends up starting part or all of the season, you get an experienced QB who knows the system, has the confidence of the coaching staff, and can get points with his legs. You can’t do much better than that in round 11.

Pick 12.3: The Backup to the Backup Plan

Yes, in order to minimize risk this approach requires fielding 4 QBs and basically ignoring TE the entire draft. Goff is the last warm body on the board that can fill in on bye weeks and has 100% job security.

Pick 13.10: Traut Fishing

With Thomas out with surgery and likely on the outs permanently with the Saints staff, someone has to run routes and catch passes besides Alvin Kamara. I have Trautman finishing at TE12, which makes him just a borderline starter.

But I have just 15 points total separating him and T.J Hockenson, the TE7, who is going at the beginning of the sixth round. Basically if you aren’t spending a pick on a TE in the first four rounds, you can wait and wait and wait and still get a passable starter.

Pick 14.03: Gimme Moore

In case you haven’t noticed, Ole MIss WRs have done ok in the NFL. Elijah Moore is the star of Jets camp and an absolute steal in the last rounds of your draft. Getting a WR in the 14th round who could be a reliable flex starter by week 4 is almost unfair.

Unless you get him.

Pick 15.10: Miami Defense

While the Dolphins didn’t make huge moves in free agency, they quietly added solid depth and potential starters to a unit that finished 4th in the league in points allowed. I could also see going with the Browns here, but I give Miami the edge on points allowed.

Pick 16.03: Phillip Lindsay

Lindsay is as good a dart throw as any in the final round. I am assuming he’s available later than stated ADP given just how bad the mojo is around the Texans. If not, take Alexander Mattison and wait for Cook to get injured.

Perfect Draft: Final Results (Starters in Bold)

QB	RB	WR	TE	DST
Dak Prescott	J.K. Dobbins	Davante Adams	Adam Trautman	Dolphins
Jameis Winston	James Robinson	CeeDee Lamb
Taysom Hill	Raheem Mostert	Robert Woods
Jared Goff	Michael Carter	Antonio Brown
	Phillip Lindsay	Elijah Moore

This approach favors risk, maximizing starter VBD, and sacrificing depth. Dak Prescott in full health should offer massive value over at least 7 starting QBs in the QB1 slot. I also believe that Winston will perform more like a QB1 if he can just minimize turnovers enough to hold on to the starting job. If not, I think HIll’s ruching ability and experience make him at least equal in value to Jalen Hurts, currently ranked as QB12 in ADP. So two QB1s regardless of outcome in the QB2 slot.

Running back is a perceived weakness, but I think this group will outperform expectations across the board with the possible exception of Lindsay. I have Dobbins at RB8 which makes him a middle of the road RB1, but I think he has top-five potential. Robinson I have as RB15 meaning I think he’ll be an above average RB2. Mostert and Carter should see enough volume to be valuable bye-week/injury fill-ins with plenty of upside.

The lift that Davante Adams offers over the entire field (I have him at 40 points more than WR2) is something you really want on your side every week. Lamb is an admitted reach over guys like Allen Robinson and Terry McLaurin, but I see it coming together for him this season and I think you have to go with your gut. I see him finishing inside the top 10, and I think Woods will finish top 15 with Stafford under center. If Brown implodes (really the only way I can see him not finishing in the top 30 at WR) Elijah Moore or Raheem Mostert can fill in the flex spot admirably.

I purposefully ignored TE and DST and still feel fairly good about my options there.

This team got a “D+” rating from footballguys.com rate my team app which tells me I’m on to something.

2021 Training Camps to Watch

2021 presents an intriguing prospect of late-round value for 2QB and Superflex league. Five QBS haven’t been taken in the top 15 picks since 1999 when Tim Couch (1) started a run that included Donovan McNabb (2), Akili Smith (3), Daunte Culpepper (11), and Cade McNown (12).

This shows how rare it is to have potentially five new starting QBs entering the NFL in the same year, and also reminds us of the bust rate of rookie QBs no matter how high their pre-draft stock. Only McNabb carved out a truly great career, and only Culpepper delivered fantasy value as a starter for a brief run.

Which means that the likelihood of all five 2021 rookie QBs returning value is low, making their training camps potentially pivotal to those waiting on a second QB in redraft (hint), and positioned to draft one of the five in dynasty. Below are the camps I am keeping a close eye on, both for rookie QB viability and a few other battles of note.

Patriots: Cam vs Lil Mac

If you followed the beat writers at OTAs and minicamp, it was like a duel between Chicken Little and Pollyanna. Either the earth was crumbling under Jones’s feet or he was the next savior of Patriot Land, rescuing them from their 1 season of mediocrity.

The reports on Cam, pre and post hand-injury, were more measured: most of them were about what he didn’t do wrong rather than what he did right. Cam has declared that he is “fully healthy” for the first time since 2016. It’s hard to understand why people get excited about this knowing that he passed for 3500, 19 and 14 that season. Also, this isn’t the first time he has declared himself fully healthy since then since then (not a typo).

Given that each QB presents a completely different picture of the Patriots offense under center, it’s worth hearkening back to one year ago when the talk was how Cam’s skill set would require a wholesale change in the Patriots offense, and what the results were.

I’m going to be monitoring who is getting the majority of reps with the 1s by week 2 and looking to see if both get equal time against the 1s in weeks 1 and 2 of the preseason. If Mac Jones is showing deep ball accuracy and isn’t an absolute liability against the pass rush, I think Belichek and McDaniels get back to the old way of things sooner rather than later.

Saints: Winston vs Hill

I can’t be the only person that remembers Jameis Winston finished as the QB1 in many leagues a year ago. While Taysom Hill is a great player and a good quarterback, I think this job is more Jameis’s to lose than to win.

His one-year deal is small ($4.5m) and loaded with incentives (additional $7m) which leads me to believe that he thinks he’s got a very good shot at the starting job.

If we are not seeing reports of Jameis badly missing receivers or planting gifts to linebackers and corners during drills, there is a chance that a year of watching and learning has eliminated the one aspect of his game that made the league leader in yardage a backup the very next year. I will admit I have never been a fan, dating back to #crableggate at FSU, but I think he absolutely deserves the shot over Hill, and if he can conquer his one weakness, could easily be a league-winner in 2QB leagues as the 28th QB in ADP and available at the back end of the 9th in 12-team leagues.

Bears: Fields vs Dalton

To me, this really is only about who starts for the first few weeks. The outcome of Fields starting the majority of games this year is inevitable. The only thing to watch for is if Fields forces Nagy’s hand.

Nagy is steadfast that “Dalton is the starter” bringing back horrific memories of “Rex is our quarterback” in Bears fans everywhere. But given the schedule, with the Bears facing the buzz saw of Aaron Donald and the Rams week 1, offering Dalton as the sacrificial lamb makes sense regardless of how badly Fields outperforms Dalton in camp and preseason.

Nagy will start Dalton week 1 and take his licks in what is likely to be an absolute destruction. Whether or not Dalton makes it out of the game healthy, expect a vague “ankle issue” to pop up week 2 if Fields looks ready in camp.

If Fields struggles, badly, the latest I would expect him to start would be against the Lions at home in week 4. Nagy and Pace know they are half out the door.

49ers: Lance vs Garropolo

Trey Lance absolutely give the 49ers the best chance to win this season IF he doesn’t implode during training camp. The general consensus since before the draft is that the D2 prospect will need time to develop especially after only playing one game in the 2020 college season.

Thus far there are no strong signals that the 49ers plan to rush Lance along, especially if Garropolo can show enough during camp to prove he won’t be a liability under center, so he’s the one to watch during camp.

If reports are trending generally positive towards his performance in camp, there is a good chance he is given the first five games as starter. If he can lead the Niners to a 3-2 start, he may survive the bye, which means we may not see Lance under center until November.

This would make this team one to avoid on draft day. A strong showing of Lance over Garropolo could mean that Lance starts week 1, in which case Lance could be a viable late-round QB2 target with upside.

Tua Superlatives

Tua is currently going as QB21 in drafts, reflecting the lukewarm feeling on whether he will ever live up to his draft hype.

What we need to see out of Dolphins camp are superlatives. Most impressive player. Most improved player. Outstanding, excellent, flawless, etc. If we are not hearing those notes hit often by trusted beat writers, he may not live up to his current QB21 status.

Tua is not a runner. He won’t have a safe floor from his legs if he does not develop significantly as a downfield passer, and with established deep threat Will Fuller and rookie Jaylen Waddle available to catch passes, there will be no excuses for his year two campaign.

If the hype train is not going full steam into week two of camp, drafters should look elsewhere for their QB2.

Ravens: Who Runs with the Ones?

Yes the Ravens gave a good contract to Gus Edwards, one befitting a 1A back instead of a number 2. Yes Lamar Jackson remains the best running QB in the league. But are these really reasons to discount J.K. Dobbins’s 6.0 ypc in his rookie year?

For reference, out of Christian McCaffrey, Ladanian Tomlinson, and Adrian Peterson, only Peterson even approached this clip at 5.6 ypc his rookie year. McCaeffrey and Tomlinson didn’t even come close.

Yes Dobbins’s week 17 against Cincy inflated his stats, but the team has openly stated that getting him more involved is a focus of the offseason. What to watch is the distribution of reps with the ones between two very capable backs. If the Ravens are intent on getting Dobbins more involved, it should show in a 65+ percent of reps.

Dobbins has the skill set to win out on talent over Edwards, so I wouldn’t shy away from making Dobbins a first round selection if the camp reports are favorable.

Jets: Wilson Oasis or Mirage?

Going into the draft I had Wilson pegged as the most likely bust of the 2021 class. BYU simply does not face defenses approaching NFL caliber and film study reveals that Wilson rarely faced serious pressure on his dropbacks. Perhaps adding to my pessimism was an eery mirror of Johnny Manziel.

Unlike Manziel, Wilson does not have a Tebow-esque windup on deep balls, and did not have a Mike Evans to bail him out and pad his stats. He does seem to possess an ability to salvage throws on breakdowns that bears some resemblance of Patrick Mahomes, which no doubt helped his draft capital.

The Jets present an opportunity in that their years of sickening mediocrity under colossal failure Adam Gasse are scaring off drafters. As the NFL proves every year, the sheer volume of change provides instances where teams that are bottom of the barrel can approach greatness in a single season. I would not be shocked to see the Jets be that next team.

Wilson’s OTAs and Minicamp were met with varying degrees of effusive praise from a New York media desperate for a good story. Wilson represents a late-round target that will deliver almost immediate returns on his season-long viability. After matchups with the Panthers and Patriots, one would be able to decide whether Wilson’s star is rising or falling, and swap him out for a Ryan Fitzpatrick or Drew Lock on the WW.

Rams: Will Stafford Burst the Bubble?

There is no battle here: Stafford is the starter. The situation to monitor is the degree to which Stafford’s presence changes Sean McVay’s game plan.

With Goff, the Rams relied on bubble screens. McVay seemed to game plan around Goff’s obvious weakness under pressure and designed most passing plays on quick releases, in order to minimize Goff’s decision making while staring down a pass rush.

The question of how much Stafford will benefit from working under a true offensive mind is a big one for 2021. But maybe the bigger question is how much shifting the playbook from bubble screens to a less-limited offensive scheme will benefit Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. While I don’t expect Stafford to become a top 5 QB at this point in his career, I do expect improvement. However at QB11 ADP, his improvement is already baked in.

The thing to watch at Rams camp is whether the playbook opens up to deeper passes and longer developing pass plays with Stafford under center. It’s expected, but old habits die hard.

Jaguars: Etienne vs Robinson

As a Robinson dynasty owner I hated seeing Etienne getting drafted by the Jaguars. But then I remembered how crazy Urban Meyer is.

Etienne’s drumbeat (thanks Cecil) all offseason has been about catching passes, from rookie minicamp practicing exclusively as a wide receiver to the latest beat about being the pass-catching back. Meyer loves slash players and unfortunately for Etienne and Etienne dynasty owners, may limit his career by trying to force him into a Harvin-type role.

As much as I hate to admit it, I think Etienne’s talent as a full-time back is superior to Robinson’s, and given rational coaching (thanks Bloom) he should take over as the primary back about mid-season. That being said, based on Meyer’s career tendencies, I don’t think we can assume rational coaching, and instead should expect an NCAA level of trite coaching truisms to triumph over winning games for the first 7-8 until Meyer feels his seat getting hot. Hell, I really wouldn’t be surprised to see Lawrence not start under some “rookies have to earn it” bs.

If Robinson is seeing primary usage as “the back” and Etienne is being deployed all over the field in training camp, I think Robinson could be a value similar to Damien Harris with Mac Jones. If Etienne sees the majority of run with the ones in week 3 of camp, we could be looking at a sneaky round 6 value.

Broncos: Lock vs Teddy

I’m kind of throwing up in my mouth as I write this, but this is at the very least a starting QB situation to monitor for leagues that don’t cap QBs.

If Teddy wins the job, expect Jerry Jeudy to have a better season. If Lock wins the job I think he will throw his way out of it by about week five. Neither are draft targets unless simply having a warm body is a competitive advantage in your league.