2021 presents an intriguing prospect of late-round value for 2QB and Superflex league. Five QBS haven’t been taken in the top 15 picks since 1999 when Tim Couch (1) started a run that included Donovan McNabb (2), Akili Smith (3), Daunte Culpepper (11), and Cade McNown (12).
This shows how rare it is to have potentially five new starting QBs entering the NFL in the same year, and also reminds us of the bust rate of rookie QBs no matter how high their pre-draft stock. Only McNabb carved out a truly great career, and only Culpepper delivered fantasy value as a starter for a brief run.
Which means that the likelihood of all five 2021 rookie QBs returning value is low, making their training camps potentially pivotal to those waiting on a second QB in redraft (hint), and positioned to draft one of the five in dynasty. Below are the camps I am keeping a close eye on, both for rookie QB viability and a few other battles of note.
Patriots: Cam vs Lil Mac
If you followed the beat writers at OTAs and minicamp, it was like a duel between Chicken Little and Pollyanna. Either the earth was crumbling under Jones’s feet or he was the next savior of Patriot Land, rescuing them from their 1 season of mediocrity.
The reports on Cam, pre and post hand-injury, were more measured: most of them were about what he didn’t do wrong rather than what he did right. Cam has declared that he is “fully healthy” for the first time since 2016. It’s hard to understand why people get excited about this knowing that he passed for 3500, 19 and 14 that season. Also, this isn’t the first time he has declared himself fully healthy since then since then (not a typo).
Given that each QB presents a completely different picture of the Patriots offense under center, it’s worth hearkening back to one year ago when the talk was how Cam’s skill set would require a wholesale change in the Patriots offense, and what the results were.
I’m going to be monitoring who is getting the majority of reps with the 1s by week 2 and looking to see if both get equal time against the 1s in weeks 1 and 2 of the preseason. If Mac Jones is showing deep ball accuracy and isn’t an absolute liability against the pass rush, I think Belichek and McDaniels get back to the old way of things sooner rather than later.
Saints: Winston vs Hill
I can’t be the only person that remembers Jameis Winston finished as the QB1 in many leagues a year ago. While Taysom Hill is a great player and a good quarterback, I think this job is more Jameis’s to lose than to win.
His one-year deal is small ($4.5m) and loaded with incentives (additional $7m) which leads me to believe that he thinks he’s got a very good shot at the starting job.
If we are not seeing reports of Jameis badly missing receivers or planting gifts to linebackers and corners during drills, there is a chance that a year of watching and learning has eliminated the one aspect of his game that made the league leader in yardage a backup the very next year. I will admit I have never been a fan, dating back to #crableggate at FSU, but I think he absolutely deserves the shot over Hill, and if he can conquer his one weakness, could easily be a league-winner in 2QB leagues as the 28th QB in ADP and available at the back end of the 9th in 12-team leagues.
Bears: Fields vs Dalton
To me, this really is only about who starts for the first few weeks. The outcome of Fields starting the majority of games this year is inevitable. The only thing to watch for is if Fields forces Nagy’s hand.
Nagy is steadfast that “Dalton is the starter” bringing back horrific memories of “Rex is our quarterback” in Bears fans everywhere. But given the schedule, with the Bears facing the buzz saw of Aaron Donald and the Rams week 1, offering Dalton as the sacrificial lamb makes sense regardless of how badly Fields outperforms Dalton in camp and preseason.
Nagy will start Dalton week 1 and take his licks in what is likely to be an absolute destruction. Whether or not Dalton makes it out of the game healthy, expect a vague “ankle issue” to pop up week 2 if Fields looks ready in camp.
If Fields struggles, badly, the latest I would expect him to start would be against the Lions at home in week 4. Nagy and Pace know they are half out the door.
49ers: Lance vs Garropolo
Trey Lance absolutely give the 49ers the best chance to win this season IF he doesn’t implode during training camp. The general consensus since before the draft is that the D2 prospect will need time to develop especially after only playing one game in the 2020 college season.
Thus far there are no strong signals that the 49ers plan to rush Lance along, especially if Garropolo can show enough during camp to prove he won’t be a liability under center, so he’s the one to watch during camp.
If reports are trending generally positive towards his performance in camp, there is a good chance he is given the first five games as starter. If he can lead the Niners to a 3-2 start, he may survive the bye, which means we may not see Lance under center until November.
This would make this team one to avoid on draft day. A strong showing of Lance over Garropolo could mean that Lance starts week 1, in which case Lance could be a viable late-round QB2 target with upside.
Tua Superlatives
Tua is currently going as QB21 in drafts, reflecting the lukewarm feeling on whether he will ever live up to his draft hype.
What we need to see out of Dolphins camp are superlatives. Most impressive player. Most improved player. Outstanding, excellent, flawless, etc. If we are not hearing those notes hit often by trusted beat writers, he may not live up to his current QB21 status.
Tua is not a runner. He won’t have a safe floor from his legs if he does not develop significantly as a downfield passer, and with established deep threat Will Fuller and rookie Jaylen Waddle available to catch passes, there will be no excuses for his year two campaign.
If the hype train is not going full steam into week two of camp, drafters should look elsewhere for their QB2.
Ravens: Who Runs with the Ones?
Yes the Ravens gave a good contract to Gus Edwards, one befitting a 1A back instead of a number 2. Yes Lamar Jackson remains the best running QB in the league. But are these really reasons to discount J.K. Dobbins’s 6.0 ypc in his rookie year?
For reference, out of Christian McCaffrey, Ladanian Tomlinson, and Adrian Peterson, only Peterson even approached this clip at 5.6 ypc his rookie year. McCaeffrey and Tomlinson didn’t even come close.
Yes Dobbins’s week 17 against Cincy inflated his stats, but the team has openly stated that getting him more involved is a focus of the offseason. What to watch is the distribution of reps with the ones between two very capable backs. If the Ravens are intent on getting Dobbins more involved, it should show in a 65+ percent of reps.
Dobbins has the skill set to win out on talent over Edwards, so I wouldn’t shy away from making Dobbins a first round selection if the camp reports are favorable.
Jets: Wilson Oasis or Mirage?
Going into the draft I had Wilson pegged as the most likely bust of the 2021 class. BYU simply does not face defenses approaching NFL caliber and film study reveals that Wilson rarely faced serious pressure on his dropbacks. Perhaps adding to my pessimism was an eery mirror of Johnny Manziel.
Unlike Manziel, Wilson does not have a Tebow-esque windup on deep balls, and did not have a Mike Evans to bail him out and pad his stats. He does seem to possess an ability to salvage throws on breakdowns that bears some resemblance of Patrick Mahomes, which no doubt helped his draft capital.
The Jets present an opportunity in that their years of sickening mediocrity under colossal failure Adam Gasse are scaring off drafters. As the NFL proves every year, the sheer volume of change provides instances where teams that are bottom of the barrel can approach greatness in a single season. I would not be shocked to see the Jets be that next team.
Wilson’s OTAs and Minicamp were met with varying degrees of effusive praise from a New York media desperate for a good story. Wilson represents a late-round target that will deliver almost immediate returns on his season-long viability. After matchups with the Panthers and Patriots, one would be able to decide whether Wilson’s star is rising or falling, and swap him out for a Ryan Fitzpatrick or Drew Lock on the WW.
Rams: Will Stafford Burst the Bubble?
There is no battle here: Stafford is the starter. The situation to monitor is the degree to which Stafford’s presence changes Sean McVay’s game plan.
With Goff, the Rams relied on bubble screens. McVay seemed to game plan around Goff’s obvious weakness under pressure and designed most passing plays on quick releases, in order to minimize Goff’s decision making while staring down a pass rush.
The question of how much Stafford will benefit from working under a true offensive mind is a big one for 2021. But maybe the bigger question is how much shifting the playbook from bubble screens to a less-limited offensive scheme will benefit Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. While I don’t expect Stafford to become a top 5 QB at this point in his career, I do expect improvement. However at QB11 ADP, his improvement is already baked in.
The thing to watch at Rams camp is whether the playbook opens up to deeper passes and longer developing pass plays with Stafford under center. It’s expected, but old habits die hard.
Jaguars: Etienne vs Robinson
As a Robinson dynasty owner I hated seeing Etienne getting drafted by the Jaguars. But then I remembered how crazy Urban Meyer is.
Etienne’s drumbeat (thanks Cecil) all offseason has been about catching passes, from rookie minicamp practicing exclusively as a wide receiver to the latest beat about being the pass-catching back. Meyer loves slash players and unfortunately for Etienne and Etienne dynasty owners, may limit his career by trying to force him into a Harvin-type role.
As much as I hate to admit it, I think Etienne’s talent as a full-time back is superior to Robinson’s, and given rational coaching (thanks Bloom) he should take over as the primary back about mid-season. That being said, based on Meyer’s career tendencies, I don’t think we can assume rational coaching, and instead should expect an NCAA level of trite coaching truisms to triumph over winning games for the first 7-8 until Meyer feels his seat getting hot. Hell, I really wouldn’t be surprised to see Lawrence not start under some “rookies have to earn it” bs.
If Robinson is seeing primary usage as “the back” and Etienne is being deployed all over the field in training camp, I think Robinson could be a value similar to Damien Harris with Mac Jones. If Etienne sees the majority of run with the ones in week 3 of camp, we could be looking at a sneaky round 6 value.
Broncos: Lock vs Teddy
I’m kind of throwing up in my mouth as I write this, but this is at the very least a starting QB situation to monitor for leagues that don’t cap QBs.
If Teddy wins the job, expect Jerry Jeudy to have a better season. If Lock wins the job I think he will throw his way out of it by about week five. Neither are draft targets unless simply having a warm body is a competitive advantage in your league.