Cam Newton - 2qbfantasy.com

QB Battles Winners and Losers

After only one week of preseason it’s too early to call, but drafts are happening and have been happening, so one week might be the best data set you have to work with.

Superflex and 2QB leagues mean that every week 20-24 QBs are starting, and for those without roster limits, usually every starting QB is rostered. Let’s take a quick look at what we saw in preseason week 1 and see if that gives us any edge on predicting the eventual winner, which in many cases may not be the week 1 starter.

Fields vs Dalton, Bears

Winner: Fields

I watched every snap for both QBs and while Fields looked very much like a rookie, almost fumbling his first carry and taking a bit too long to release a throw in the end zone, he avoided any major mistakes in the first half, and tightened up considerably toward the end. His throws were accurate, and the game did not seem too big for him.

In the second half he really started to shine, obviously more comfortable (though playing against worse competition). He showcased his speed on a run to the sideline where he accelerated and picked up an extra 7-10 yards, outrunning a couple Dolphin defenders.

Loser: Nagy’s False Equivalency

Matt Nagy for some reason has clung to the example of Alex Smith and Pat Mahomes like it is some iron-clad formula for success that is applicable to any context. Here are some major differences:

Alex Smith was better then than Dalton is now
Andy Reid was not in danger of losing his job as Nagy is now

Plus, are we really to suffer under the assumption that Mahomes is looking like potentially the greatest QB of all time just because he sat behind Alex Smith for almost a full season? He put up video game numbers in college. He blew up the preseason his rookie year. This is one of the worst forms of mistaking correlation for causation I have ever seen.

When making the decision of starting a rookie QB, only two questions matter: Does starting the rookie give you a better chance to win now? Undoubtedly yes. Will starting the rookie negatively impact your chances to win later? Fields gave us no reason to think so.

Mac Jones vs Cam Newton, Patriots

Winner: Mac Jones

The stats were in Mac’s favor, and they don’t even begin to tell the story, not even when looking at Newtons .3-yard depth of target. Most of Newton’s yards were added after the catch on two catch and runs by Jonnu Smith and James White, both thrown at or around the line of scrimmage. The offense was stagnant, Cam was holding on to the ball too long, and it just looked a lot like last year.

When Jones entered the offense immediately started clicking. He took instant command of the pocket, the ball came out on time and on target, and even though the playcalling was conservative, he showed that he simply allows the Patriots to do what the Patriots want to do on offense way better than Cam does.

Loser: Fantasy GMs

Unfortunately I don’t believe this was ever a true competition and I don’t believe Jones will start week 1, and I don’t know when he will start. And if you want to bet on guessing what Bill Belichik is thinking, good luck. If you want to depend on either as your QB2, you’ll have to take both QBs until Jones starts, because there is no way Cam starts the whole season. But there’s also no way of knowing how long he will play.

Drew Lock vs Teddy Bridgewater, Broncos

Winner: Drew Lock

We knew that Lock could throw the deep ball, but he put together an amazing fist couple of drives ending in this beautiful 80-yard bomb to KJ Hamler. But the bigger news was he just didn’t make any headscratcher throws, and he connected with Jerry Jeudy on a 33-yard catch and run.

Loser: Teddy Bridgewater

Teddy didn’t do anything wrong and I think this is still something that we could see switch later in the season. I don’t like betting on players to change their stripes in their third year, and I could see Lock playing his way out of the starting role. But given who Teddy is, I can’t see him overtaking Lock on his own merits.

Taysom Hill vs Jameis Winston, Saints

Winner: Taysom Hill

I want to be clear that neither QB played well enough to cement a solid claim on the starting job. I’m giving it to Taysom based solely on the fact that he started. His accuracy was off, not on his interception which was due to a receiver quitting on his route, but just in general. He should have been picked off a second time.

Jameis looked like he was still having trouble with his reads and struggling under mild pressure. He did pick it up later on, but there was nothing convincing about his performance.

Loser: Me

I have been predicting Jameis as an incredible late-round value with an ADP in the 10th to serve as your QB2 this year, based on his one-year removed season leading the league in passing yards. This preseason game leads me to think that we may see multiple switches at QB in season, with both struggling.

The old adage may apply: If you’ve got two starting quarterbacks, you’ve got none.

Trey Lance vs Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers

Winner: 49ers Schedule

Lance did all the things we knew he could do: throw deep, throw accurate, throw on the run. Jimmy G looked exactly like the player we have seen for years, and is likely who we will see under center for most of this year.

The 49ers have the easiest schedule in the league. There is a very good chance they can amass a winning record in the first half just relying on their running game and their defense. As much as Lance looks ready and a superior talent to Garoppolo, the truth is the 49ers probably won’t need him to win games.

Loser: 49ers Fans

The most likely outcome is that fans are teased with Lance on situational plays and get only glimpses of his talent for the majority of the season. Those looking to make Lance their QB2 will either have to depend on their QB3 to start in the second QB or superflex slot, or hope to get lucky on the waiver wire.

Preseason Game Observations: August 12

Thursday’s preseason games had some interesting implications for 2QB dynasty and redraft leagues. I’ll be focusing on those as well as a few observations on running backs and wide receivers.

Eagles vs Steelers

Hurts performed better than his stat line and did a few things that showed his stage in the maturation process. For one, he was plugging along nicely on his first drive until Zach Ertz let a perfectly thrown ball bounce off his hands on third down, killing his first drive.

On the next drive Hurts chose to dive, narrowly missing a first down instead of trucking the defender, which ended the drive as well. Had this been a regular season game he likely would have made the extra effort and gotten the first with his legs, but giving up on the play in preseason shows he is thinking the right way to stay under center for the Eagles.

Also, on a play where he was scrambling to his right to extend the play, he threw the ball out of bounds instead of trying to make something happen.

On the other side, Najee Harris looked much better than he did at the HOF game, showing impressive burst and the ability to quickly get to the second level of the defense through trash at the line. He had two runs called back with holding, and on both he gained about 9-10 yards. Neither of the holds freed him and one should not have been called.

JuJu Smith Schuster caught a lot of short passes out of the slot and hauled in all of his targets. While his yards per reception is going to go down, his receptions should go up. Dionte Johnson had a nice game as well.

Patriots vs WFT

This was the truly interesting game. Cam looked a lot like what we saw last year. He did not have a pass deep, and I think never threw further than 10 yards beyond the line. Almost all of yardage came from short passes that Jonnu Smith and James White took long, making their catches at or around the line of scrimmage. Newton narrowly avoided a fumble, and the offense simply was not clicking with him on the field.

Then Mac Jones came on the field.

Jones immediately showed what the Patriots have been seeing in recent practices: accurate throws, quick decisions, excellent pocket presence and footwork. While he was confined mostly to checkdowns, he was making excellent anticipation throws on time, in traffic, and on target. His first drive should have ended with a long touchdown along the left sideline but Kristian Wilkerson let the pass bounce off his hands.

Jones did miss Gunner Olsweski on a deep route later in the game and was obviously upset with himself, but had that been Nelson Agolhor or Kendrick Bourne, both absent, maybe that’s a completion.

Essentially, with Cam under center the offense looked stagnant. It didn’t click. With Mac under center it clicks, and it was obvious to anyone watching the game.

Another Pats camp storyline did not pan out, and that was the ascendence of N’Keal Harry. Whatever he has been showing in practice did not show up on the field, as N’Keal was overshadowed by Kristian Wilkerson. He just wasn’t getting open.

Antonio Gibson got a few carries and three receptions for WFT, but the rest of the offense was pretty boring to watch as the starters only saw a few series. Terry was Terry and Fitz looked sharp. The defense was the star of the show as one would expect.

2021 Training Camps to Watch

2021 presents an intriguing prospect of late-round value for 2QB and Superflex league. Five QBS haven’t been taken in the top 15 picks since 1999 when Tim Couch (1) started a run that included Donovan McNabb (2), Akili Smith (3), Daunte Culpepper (11), and Cade McNown (12).

This shows how rare it is to have potentially five new starting QBs entering the NFL in the same year, and also reminds us of the bust rate of rookie QBs no matter how high their pre-draft stock. Only McNabb carved out a truly great career, and only Culpepper delivered fantasy value as a starter for a brief run.

Which means that the likelihood of all five 2021 rookie QBs returning value is low, making their training camps potentially pivotal to those waiting on a second QB in redraft (hint), and positioned to draft one of the five in dynasty. Below are the camps I am keeping a close eye on, both for rookie QB viability and a few other battles of note.

Patriots: Cam vs Lil Mac

If you followed the beat writers at OTAs and minicamp, it was like a duel between Chicken Little and Pollyanna. Either the earth was crumbling under Jones’s feet or he was the next savior of Patriot Land, rescuing them from their 1 season of mediocrity.

The reports on Cam, pre and post hand-injury, were more measured: most of them were about what he didn’t do wrong rather than what he did right. Cam has declared that he is “fully healthy” for the first time since 2016. It’s hard to understand why people get excited about this knowing that he passed for 3500, 19 and 14 that season. Also, this isn’t the first time he has declared himself fully healthy since then since then (not a typo).

Given that each QB presents a completely different picture of the Patriots offense under center, it’s worth hearkening back to one year ago when the talk was how Cam’s skill set would require a wholesale change in the Patriots offense, and what the results were.

I’m going to be monitoring who is getting the majority of reps with the 1s by week 2 and looking to see if both get equal time against the 1s in weeks 1 and 2 of the preseason. If Mac Jones is showing deep ball accuracy and isn’t an absolute liability against the pass rush, I think Belichek and McDaniels get back to the old way of things sooner rather than later.

Saints: Winston vs Hill

I can’t be the only person that remembers Jameis Winston finished as the QB1 in many leagues a year ago. While Taysom Hill is a great player and a good quarterback, I think this job is more Jameis’s to lose than to win.

His one-year deal is small ($4.5m) and loaded with incentives (additional $7m) which leads me to believe that he thinks he’s got a very good shot at the starting job.

If we are not seeing reports of Jameis badly missing receivers or planting gifts to linebackers and corners during drills, there is a chance that a year of watching and learning has eliminated the one aspect of his game that made the league leader in yardage a backup the very next year. I will admit I have never been a fan, dating back to #crableggate at FSU, but I think he absolutely deserves the shot over Hill, and if he can conquer his one weakness, could easily be a league-winner in 2QB leagues as the 28th QB in ADP and available at the back end of the 9th in 12-team leagues.

Bears: Fields vs Dalton

To me, this really is only about who starts for the first few weeks. The outcome of Fields starting the majority of games this year is inevitable. The only thing to watch for is if Fields forces Nagy’s hand.

Nagy is steadfast that “Dalton is the starter” bringing back horrific memories of “Rex is our quarterback” in Bears fans everywhere. But given the schedule, with the Bears facing the buzz saw of Aaron Donald and the Rams week 1, offering Dalton as the sacrificial lamb makes sense regardless of how badly Fields outperforms Dalton in camp and preseason.

Nagy will start Dalton week 1 and take his licks in what is likely to be an absolute destruction. Whether or not Dalton makes it out of the game healthy, expect a vague “ankle issue” to pop up week 2 if Fields looks ready in camp.

If Fields struggles, badly, the latest I would expect him to start would be against the Lions at home in week 4. Nagy and Pace know they are half out the door.

49ers: Lance vs Garropolo

Trey Lance absolutely give the 49ers the best chance to win this season IF he doesn’t implode during training camp. The general consensus since before the draft is that the D2 prospect will need time to develop especially after only playing one game in the 2020 college season.

Thus far there are no strong signals that the 49ers plan to rush Lance along, especially if Garropolo can show enough during camp to prove he won’t be a liability under center, so he’s the one to watch during camp.

If reports are trending generally positive towards his performance in camp, there is a good chance he is given the first five games as starter. If he can lead the Niners to a 3-2 start, he may survive the bye, which means we may not see Lance under center until November.

This would make this team one to avoid on draft day. A strong showing of Lance over Garropolo could mean that Lance starts week 1, in which case Lance could be a viable late-round QB2 target with upside.

Tua Superlatives

Tua is currently going as QB21 in drafts, reflecting the lukewarm feeling on whether he will ever live up to his draft hype.

What we need to see out of Dolphins camp are superlatives. Most impressive player. Most improved player. Outstanding, excellent, flawless, etc. If we are not hearing those notes hit often by trusted beat writers, he may not live up to his current QB21 status.

Tua is not a runner. He won’t have a safe floor from his legs if he does not develop significantly as a downfield passer, and with established deep threat Will Fuller and rookie Jaylen Waddle available to catch passes, there will be no excuses for his year two campaign.

If the hype train is not going full steam into week two of camp, drafters should look elsewhere for their QB2.

Ravens: Who Runs with the Ones?

Yes the Ravens gave a good contract to Gus Edwards, one befitting a 1A back instead of a number 2. Yes Lamar Jackson remains the best running QB in the league. But are these really reasons to discount J.K. Dobbins’s 6.0 ypc in his rookie year?

For reference, out of Christian McCaffrey, Ladanian Tomlinson, and Adrian Peterson, only Peterson even approached this clip at 5.6 ypc his rookie year. McCaeffrey and Tomlinson didn’t even come close.

Yes Dobbins’s week 17 against Cincy inflated his stats, but the team has openly stated that getting him more involved is a focus of the offseason. What to watch is the distribution of reps with the ones between two very capable backs. If the Ravens are intent on getting Dobbins more involved, it should show in a 65+ percent of reps.

Dobbins has the skill set to win out on talent over Edwards, so I wouldn’t shy away from making Dobbins a first round selection if the camp reports are favorable.

Jets: Wilson Oasis or Mirage?

Going into the draft I had Wilson pegged as the most likely bust of the 2021 class. BYU simply does not face defenses approaching NFL caliber and film study reveals that Wilson rarely faced serious pressure on his dropbacks. Perhaps adding to my pessimism was an eery mirror of Johnny Manziel.

Unlike Manziel, Wilson does not have a Tebow-esque windup on deep balls, and did not have a Mike Evans to bail him out and pad his stats. He does seem to possess an ability to salvage throws on breakdowns that bears some resemblance of Patrick Mahomes, which no doubt helped his draft capital.

The Jets present an opportunity in that their years of sickening mediocrity under colossal failure Adam Gasse are scaring off drafters. As the NFL proves every year, the sheer volume of change provides instances where teams that are bottom of the barrel can approach greatness in a single season. I would not be shocked to see the Jets be that next team.

Wilson’s OTAs and Minicamp were met with varying degrees of effusive praise from a New York media desperate for a good story. Wilson represents a late-round target that will deliver almost immediate returns on his season-long viability. After matchups with the Panthers and Patriots, one would be able to decide whether Wilson’s star is rising or falling, and swap him out for a Ryan Fitzpatrick or Drew Lock on the WW.

Rams: Will Stafford Burst the Bubble?

There is no battle here: Stafford is the starter. The situation to monitor is the degree to which Stafford’s presence changes Sean McVay’s game plan.

With Goff, the Rams relied on bubble screens. McVay seemed to game plan around Goff’s obvious weakness under pressure and designed most passing plays on quick releases, in order to minimize Goff’s decision making while staring down a pass rush.

The question of how much Stafford will benefit from working under a true offensive mind is a big one for 2021. But maybe the bigger question is how much shifting the playbook from bubble screens to a less-limited offensive scheme will benefit Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. While I don’t expect Stafford to become a top 5 QB at this point in his career, I do expect improvement. However at QB11 ADP, his improvement is already baked in.

The thing to watch at Rams camp is whether the playbook opens up to deeper passes and longer developing pass plays with Stafford under center. It’s expected, but old habits die hard.

Jaguars: Etienne vs Robinson

As a Robinson dynasty owner I hated seeing Etienne getting drafted by the Jaguars. But then I remembered how crazy Urban Meyer is.

Etienne’s drumbeat (thanks Cecil) all offseason has been about catching passes, from rookie minicamp practicing exclusively as a wide receiver to the latest beat about being the pass-catching back. Meyer loves slash players and unfortunately for Etienne and Etienne dynasty owners, may limit his career by trying to force him into a Harvin-type role.

As much as I hate to admit it, I think Etienne’s talent as a full-time back is superior to Robinson’s, and given rational coaching (thanks Bloom) he should take over as the primary back about mid-season. That being said, based on Meyer’s career tendencies, I don’t think we can assume rational coaching, and instead should expect an NCAA level of trite coaching truisms to triumph over winning games for the first 7-8 until Meyer feels his seat getting hot. Hell, I really wouldn’t be surprised to see Lawrence not start under some “rookies have to earn it” bs.

If Robinson is seeing primary usage as “the back” and Etienne is being deployed all over the field in training camp, I think Robinson could be a value similar to Damien Harris with Mac Jones. If Etienne sees the majority of run with the ones in week 3 of camp, we could be looking at a sneaky round 6 value.

Broncos: Lock vs Teddy

I’m kind of throwing up in my mouth as I write this, but this is at the very least a starting QB situation to monitor for leagues that don’t cap QBs.

If Teddy wins the job, expect Jerry Jeudy to have a better season. If Lock wins the job I think he will throw his way out of it by about week five. Neither are draft targets unless simply having a warm body is a competitive advantage in your league.