After only one week of preseason it’s too early to call, but drafts are happening and have been happening, so one week might be the best data set you have to work with.
Superflex and 2QB leagues mean that every week 20-24 QBs are starting, and for those without roster limits, usually every starting QB is rostered. Let’s take a quick look at what we saw in preseason week 1 and see if that gives us any edge on predicting the eventual winner, which in many cases may not be the week 1 starter.
Fields vs Dalton, Bears
Winner: Fields
I watched every snap for both QBs and while Fields looked very much like a rookie, almost fumbling his first carry and taking a bit too long to release a throw in the end zone, he avoided any major mistakes in the first half, and tightened up considerably toward the end. His throws were accurate, and the game did not seem too big for him.
In the second half he really started to shine, obviously more comfortable (though playing against worse competition). He showcased his speed on a run to the sideline where he accelerated and picked up an extra 7-10 yards, outrunning a couple Dolphin defenders.
Loser: Nagy’s False Equivalency
Matt Nagy for some reason has clung to the example of Alex Smith and Pat Mahomes like it is some iron-clad formula for success that is applicable to any context. Here are some major differences:
- Alex Smith was better then than Dalton is now
- Andy Reid was not in danger of losing his job as Nagy is now
Plus, are we really to suffer under the assumption that Mahomes is looking like potentially the greatest QB of all time just because he sat behind Alex Smith for almost a full season? He put up video game numbers in college. He blew up the preseason his rookie year. This is one of the worst forms of mistaking correlation for causation I have ever seen.
When making the decision of starting a rookie QB, only two questions matter: Does starting the rookie give you a better chance to win now? Undoubtedly yes. Will starting the rookie negatively impact your chances to win later? Fields gave us no reason to think so.
Mac Jones vs Cam Newton, Patriots
Winner: Mac Jones
The stats were in Mac’s favor, and they don’t even begin to tell the story, not even when looking at Newtons .3-yard depth of target. Most of Newton’s yards were added after the catch on two catch and runs by Jonnu Smith and James White, both thrown at or around the line of scrimmage. The offense was stagnant, Cam was holding on to the ball too long, and it just looked a lot like last year.
When Jones entered the offense immediately started clicking. He took instant command of the pocket, the ball came out on time and on target, and even though the playcalling was conservative, he showed that he simply allows the Patriots to do what the Patriots want to do on offense way better than Cam does.
Loser: Fantasy GMs
Unfortunately I don’t believe this was ever a true competition and I don’t believe Jones will start week 1, and I don’t know when he will start. And if you want to bet on guessing what Bill Belichik is thinking, good luck. If you want to depend on either as your QB2, you’ll have to take both QBs until Jones starts, because there is no way Cam starts the whole season. But there’s also no way of knowing how long he will play.
Drew Lock vs Teddy Bridgewater, Broncos
Winner: Drew Lock
We knew that Lock could throw the deep ball, but he put together an amazing fist couple of drives ending in this beautiful 80-yard bomb to KJ Hamler. But the bigger news was he just didn’t make any headscratcher throws, and he connected with Jerry Jeudy on a 33-yard catch and run.
Loser: Teddy Bridgewater
Teddy didn’t do anything wrong and I think this is still something that we could see switch later in the season. I don’t like betting on players to change their stripes in their third year, and I could see Lock playing his way out of the starting role. But given who Teddy is, I can’t see him overtaking Lock on his own merits.
Taysom Hill vs Jameis Winston, Saints
Winner: Taysom Hill
I want to be clear that neither QB played well enough to cement a solid claim on the starting job. I’m giving it to Taysom based solely on the fact that he started. His accuracy was off, not on his interception which was due to a receiver quitting on his route, but just in general. He should have been picked off a second time.
Jameis looked like he was still having trouble with his reads and struggling under mild pressure. He did pick it up later on, but there was nothing convincing about his performance.
Loser: Me
I have been predicting Jameis as an incredible late-round value with an ADP in the 10th to serve as your QB2 this year, based on his one-year removed season leading the league in passing yards. This preseason game leads me to think that we may see multiple switches at QB in season, with both struggling.
The old adage may apply: If you’ve got two starting quarterbacks, you’ve got none.
Trey Lance vs Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers
Winner: 49ers Schedule
Lance did all the things we knew he could do: throw deep, throw accurate, throw on the run. Jimmy G looked exactly like the player we have seen for years, and is likely who we will see under center for most of this year.
The 49ers have the easiest schedule in the league. There is a very good chance they can amass a winning record in the first half just relying on their running game and their defense. As much as Lance looks ready and a superior talent to Garoppolo, the truth is the 49ers probably won’t need him to win games.
Loser: 49ers Fans
The most likely outcome is that fans are teased with Lance on situational plays and get only glimpses of his talent for the majority of the season. Those looking to make Lance their QB2 will either have to depend on their QB3 to start in the second QB or superflex slot, or hope to get lucky on the waiver wire.