So every week I do an exhaustive look at every QB for Superflex leagues which you can find here. But here is the tl;dr version for setting your lineups. In short, I think Mike White could be a thing and you shouldn’t be afraid to bench crap QBs like Wentz and Big Ben for him.
Week 8 is proving to be more brutal than ever. First off I want to recognize the loss of the family of the girl that died in the crash with Henry Ruggs, and also the loss Ruggs is experiencing despite the carelessness of his actions. Nothing is worth the risk of getting behind the wheel intoxicated.
Going into week 9, owners are now without Aaron Rodgers because of COVID (guess that alternative treatment didn’t quite work) and according to @JayGlazer Kyler Murray is experiencing a legitimate ankle sprain following last week’s game, and could miss this week and possibly more.
We had already said goodbye to Jameis Winston and are still waiting on official word if Taysom Hill will start, but he’s trending in the right direction according to his head coach.
Obvious QB1 Starts Week 9
Matthew Stafford vs the Titans: QB6 finish last week despite only playing 3 quarters, Stafford is playing some of the best ball in the league. The Titans are bottom ten in the league in passing yards allowed.
Josh Allen at the Jaguars: Jacksonville is stiffening against the pass the last three weeks, allowing only 232 passing yards per game, so Allen is only no 2 this week.
Lamar Jackson vs the Vikings: The Vikings barely stood up to the passing attack of Cooper Rush last week. No reason to think Lamar isn’t top three this week.
Dak Prescott vs the Broncos: Check practice reports to ensure he’s good to go but given that he was a game-time decision last week, should be fine. Fire up as QB4.
Joe Burrow vs the Browns: Three straight games with 3 TDs, QBR north of 100, Burrow is playing at a very high level. Still no rushing floor.
Patrick Mahomes II vs Green Bay: Mahomes won’t be facing Rodgers so might not have reason to chuck it, and frankly something is off. Not sure if its practice reps being too easy or Reid losing an edge, but his throws were almost all off last week.
Derek Carr at the Giants: Losing Ruggs hurts but still think Carr is good for 300+ and 2 TDs.
Justin Herbert at the Eagles: Somebody get this kid some strawberries. Two straight duds, maybe the Eagles bottom 8 pass D can help get him back on track.
Kirk Cousins at the Ravens: Cousins has been maddeningly inconsistent but should be good for top 10 numbers in a week with a lot of QBs out.
Tua Tagovaioloa vs the Texans: QBs do kinda well against the Texans. 4th worst in FPA to QBs. With the trade pressure off at least for now, Tua should be back to his fantasy-winning ways.
Jalen Hurts vs the Chargers: We really didn’t learn anything about Hurts last week. The Chargers will tell us a lot about his future. Chargers are top ten against QBs and have shut down running quarterbacks.
Ryan Tannehill at the Rams: Tannehill is without Henry and facing a newly strengthened Rams pass rush. Should be a rough game but garbage time will save his fantasy day.
Questionable QB2 Starts Week 9
Taysom Hill vs the Falcons
All we have to go on is last year, and it sounds like there is a chance that he won’t be able to suit up. But I’m planning on him starting. In his two games against the Falcons he passed for 230+ and had 49-2 and 83-0. Should be good for this week as the Falcons defense has not improved since last year. Probably the best of the QB2s available this week. Start with confidence.
Mike White at the Colts
I covered this in my WW column this week but White took the underneath stuff Cincy was giving him and had a lot of success. Check the chart:
I really can’t see any reason to put this guy any lower. You can’t just accidentally throw for 405 yards and 3 TDs. I can see regression to about 250 and 2 but that’s the floor. 300 and 3 is attainable but the Colts are only giving up 215 yards through their last 3, allow the 12th-most fantasy points to QBs on the season.
Daniel Jones vs the Raiders
Jones just isn’t pulling it together with any regularity. A player that seems to possess all the potential in the world, this is Jones’s third season delivering uneven results.
The Raiders are top ten in the league against the pass in their past three in passing yards allowed and sacks per game, and in the top half in completion percentage. Don’t expect big things from Jones this week, or ever.
Mac Jones at the Panthers
Jones has been less than thrilling as a fantasy option this year. So boring in fact he didn’t even merit a throw chart for week 8. His rating went into the toilet (70.9) as he managed only a 51% completion for a meager 218 yards and no scores. But that was against the Chargers, and Carolina is allowing a 70+ completion percentage to opposing QBs over their last three.
Teddy Bridgewater at the Cowboys
Teddy has been more consistent with previous versions of himself, underwhelming and staying conservative. Likely won’t change against the ascendant Cowboys defense, even though they have softened a bit in their last three. They held Kirk Cousins to under 200 yards passing, I think they will easily be able to do the same to Teddy.
Matt Ryan at the Saints
Ryan came crashing back to earth after a really promising game in week 7 after his bye. He had a 5.4 YPA with only 146 yards on 27 attempts. Some think that Ridley’s late announcement left them scrambling, but the problem that really reared its head is Ryan being scared to throw into the tight coverage surrounding Pitts. Still Pitts didn’t do Ryan any favors catching only 2 of 6 targets. The Saints are currently second in pass completion percentage allowed over their past three, so despite the rivalry this is not a get right spot for Ryan, but I do expect a better outing than last week, like 250 and 2 TDs.
Yikes
Desperation Plays at QB Week 9
Tyrod Taylor at the Dolphins: Very risky play in his first game back.
Jimmy G vs the Cardinals: Don’t chase points and the Cards are likely without Murray. Probably won on the ground.
Baker Mayfield at the Bengals: Not in great shape and very few skills players to rely on, but should be forced to throw by Bengals offense.
Justin Fields at the Steelers: Not a recommended play, the Steelers are sack machines and TJ Watt will have a field day.
Carson Wentz vs the Jets: No longer looking like a cakewalk, and Wentz sucks.
Gentle Ben vs the Bears: Just can’t trust him…arm is shot.
Avoid at All Costs QBs Week 9
Trevor Lawrence vs the Bills: Not with this coach, not against the Bills. No sir.
Sam Darnold vs the Patriots: Belichik is not going to know how to game plan because literally nothing is working for the Panthers right now.
Jordan Love at the Chiefs: Rookie QB who looked terrible in preseason at Arrowhead in his first game as a starter…no.
Colt McCoy at the Niners: You know, I could see him Mike White-ing the Niners, but the floor is literally 65 yards and 18 sacks.
Hopefully you didn’t start Kenneth Gainwell, Mike Evans, or Chris Godwin last night but if you did, hopefully you can get some help correcting those decisions here.
The Falcons, Saints, Jets, and Niners are on bye this week making tight end just that much thinner. But it does remove four potential sabotage starts at QB. By the way, since this is a site dedicated to superflex leagues I do a QB deep dive every week. You can find that here.
Running Back Sit/Start Week 6
There isn’t a ton of value in telling you to start Derek Henry, Dalvin Cook or CMC if they play. I’ll try and focus on riskier plays most players would be straddling the fence on.
Start These Guys
Zack Moss vs the Titans: Still splitting time with Singletary but doing a lot more with his touches. The Titans Defense is terrible all around and I expect the Bills to have a field day. They will likely jump out to a big lead early.
Alex Collins vs the Steelers: Carson’s neck issue is not going away and he’s not practicing, so Collins should get about 16 carries and turn that into about 75 yards a score.
Kareem Hunt vs the Cardinals: The Cards rank 31st in allowed yards per carry and Chubb hasn’t practice all week. Great start this week and a really solid DFS play ($6200 on DK).
Joe Mixon vs the Lions: Mixon is back at practice Friday after a rest day on Thursday, fire him up for what should be a positive game script.
DeAndre Swift vs the Bengals: Swift will benefit from an increase in targets once the Lions fall behind. I think 15-65 rushing and 9-78-1 receiving is achievable.
Sit These Guys
Josh Jacobs vs the Broncos: Averaging career lows in yards per attempt, I expect Jacobs to flounder against Denver’s 5th-ranked rushing defense.
Tony Pollard vs the Patriots: Zeke has been limited all week, but he’s going to play and the Pats are better against the run than people think. Sit Pollard this week.
Chase Edmonds/James Conner vs the Browns: The Browns are third in the league in yards per attempt allowed and give up the 7th fewest points to opposing running backs. Avoid like the plague.
Myles Gaskin vs the Jaguars: Tua is likely to start and when Tua was starting Myles was doing practically nothing. All his value last week came from receptions, give it a week to see how things shake out with Tua under center.
Wide Receiver Sit/Start Week 6
Start These Guys
Stefon Diggs vs the Titans: Monday night game, terrible pass defense, and it’s just waiting to happen for Diggs. I wrongly predicted a breakout game last week, but this is the week.
Robert Woods vs the Giants: Woods finally broke out last week and turned into Stafford’s security blanket. I think that will continue, but it might not come at Kupp’s expense.
Kadarius Toney vs the Rams: The Rams defense has not looked good, and I think Toney will tear them apart on underneath routes. Daniel Jones is going to play, which has to improve his outlook a little from Mike Glennon, though he seems QB proof.
Chase Claypool vs the Seahawks: The Hawks are giving up the second-most points to wide receivers in the league. Ben’s arm may be shot but he has enough juice to get Claypool involved, especially now that Juju is on the shelf for the year.
Jarvis Landry vs the Cardinals*: If activated by 4 pm Saturday, Landry is in a great spot against the leaky Cardinals. I just don’t get the impression OBJ gives a crap anymore, so that leaves a vacuum.
Sit These Guys
Courtland Sutton vs the Raiders: I keep wanting the Raiders to be bad at things and they keep surprising me. Stupid data. The Raiders are third in the league in passing yards allowed and give up the 4th fewest points to wide receivers. Go figure.
Tee Higgins vs the Lions: The Bengals won’t need him in this one, 55 scoreless yards.
Micheal Pittman vs the Texans: In another surprise, the Texans are currently giving up the third fewest points to wide receivers. Wentz doesn’t have another 400-yard game in him all season and Pittman’s TD was a terrible throw that required him grabbing the throw over a defender’s helmet.
Adam Thielen vs the Panthers: Panthers are good against the pass, and will be chasing Cousins around the pocket all day. Thielen will only be good for about 60 scoreless yards.
Tight End Sit/Start Week 6
Start These Guys
Mark Andrews vs the Chargers: As good as the Chargers have been at shutting down opposing QBs, somehow they are allowing the most fantasy points to tight ends. Start Mandrews with confidence, just don’t expect the league-destroying numbers he put up last week.
Mo Allie Cox vs the Texans: Cox is still seeing fewer snaps than Doyle for some reason, but he caught 3-4 targets for 50 yards, and the Texans are giving up the second-most points to tight ends.
Noah Fant vs the Raiders: Finally, proof that the Raiders actually suck: they give up the fifth-most points to tight ends, and Fant is seeing a 97% snap share. Unfortunately he isn’t getting targets, but given that the Raiders are good at taking away wide receivers, he’s a good bet to see increased targets and receptions.
Dawson Knox vs the Titans: The Titans do very few things well on defense, or offense for that matter…let’s face it it’s basically Derrick Henry and nothing else. But they are allowing the 5th fewest points to tight ends this year. Problem with that nugget is they have played the Cardinals, Seahawks, Colts, Jets, and Jaguars.
Sit These Guys
TJ Hockenson vs the Bengals: The Bengals are giving up the 7th fewest points to tight ends, and Hockenson is injured and hasn’t had a good day since week 2. This won’t be the week to get back on track.
David Njoku vs the Cardinals: Don’t chase the points. The Cardinals are tough on tight ends, allowing the second-fewest points to the position, which isn’t totally meaningless since that includes Tyler Higbee, and, well, little else. Does Ross Dwelly count? Anyway, chasing that performance is the road to hell in fantasy. Lighting won’t strike twice.
Streaming DSTs for Week 6
Bengals vs Lions: Worked for Minnesota last week, could work again.
Bears vs Packers: I feel insane writing this, especially as a lifelong Bears fan who has watched game after game of the Packers just brutalizing the Bears, especially with Rodgers at the helm. But I have a weird feeling that things change this week. I don’t know why, but I think the Bears pull together a great performance, harass Rodgers, and double the shit out of Adams.
Lamar Jackson attained God status Monday night in fantasy circles. Justin Herbert continues to render the best QB of the 2019 class a non-debate. Taylor Heinicke fell back to earth and Daniel Jones left hopeful owners holding the bag.
This Superflex QB Deep Dive Week 6 looks at QB starts for superflex and 2QB leagues, focusing on start decisions for the second QB or flex slot.
Automatic QB1 Starts
It’s not that guys on this list don’t have some questions and there isn’t some variance in performance, they are guys that I simply can’t see benching under any circumstance in superflex leagues.
Lamar Jackson vs the Chargers: The Chargers have been more successful than any other team at shutting down opposing QBs, but there is no way they stop the tear Lamar is on. What he did Monday night was truly special and will go down as one of the greatest single-game QB performances of all time. To all who drafted him congrats, enjoy the ride.
Josh Allen vs the Titans: Thus far the Titans have made Zach Wilson look competent and Trevor Lawrence look like a star. Just imagine what Josh Allen will do to them.
Justin Herbert vs the Ravens: Speaking of Monday night, one of the funniest things I heard was an announcer describing the Ravens defense as “league-leading.” I guess he just forgot it’s not 2000.
Kyler Murray vs the Browns: The Browns pass rush is impressive with Myles Garrett tearing through the league since his week 3 pantsing of the Bears, but Kyler has enough quicks and accuracy to escape and do plenty of damage downfield. Be aware that Murray is questionable with an issue with his throwing shoulder, conjuring bad memories of a 2020 campaign derailed.
Patrick Mahomes vs WFT: As bad as the Chiefs have been thus far Mahomes is still really good. Not the unquestioned QB1 anymore with Lamar and Kyler battling for that top spot, but WFT presents a get right opportunity for his team and his fantasy owners.
Tom Brady vs the Eagles: Thursday night has not been the fantasy curse it used to be. Tom should go for at least 325 and 3 against the Eagles.
Jalen Hurts vs the Bucs: Hurts is legit good, at least for fantasy, and you can’t really put the Eagles losses exclusively on him. The Bucs are giving up the 6th most fantasy points to QBs.
Mathew Stafford vs the Giants: Even when Stafford plays badly he ends up producing. He was inaccurate again week 5 and still managed 365 yards and a score against the Seahawks. The Giants give up the ninth most fantasy points to QBs.
Dak Prescott vs the Patriots: Dak just doesn’t need to pass that much to win. The Patriots defense is beatable on the ground as Fournette proved and I expect the Cowboys to lean on the run game, but Dak should still throw a few TDs and get around 280 yards.
Aaron Rodgers vs the Bears: This game is in Soldier Field and the Rodgers magic has not been what I thought it would be all season. The Packers have declining points in their past four games and Rodgers has only game with over 300 yards (which was last week).
Questionable QB Starts
Joe Burrow vs the Lions
The question is not, and really never has been Joe Burrow’s ability. Despite an absolutely perplexing interception against the Packers, Burrow is playing excellent football. The only reason I consider him a questionable start this game is that he was forced to throw more against Jacksonville and Green Bay. The way Detroit is playing I am not sure that will be the case, so this comes down to Mixon’s health. If Mixon gets a full vote of confidence for a regular snap share for this game, Burrow becomes a more questionable start. If Mixon is not fully healthy, we can expect the attempts to stay north of 30 and a good game.
Baker Mayfield vs the Cardinals
Baker had his best game of the season in absolute offensive explosion against the Chargers. The Cardinals are in the bottom third in the league in fantasy points allowed to QBs and that makes it unlikely that Mayfield repeats his 300+ yard performance. Baker is just not a plus prospect at the position and is thoroughly average at the position. I think he makes for a decent QB2 start, but don’t expect anything like last week which is an anomoly for him.
Trevor Lawrence vs the Dolphins (UK)
I am really not sure what the NFL is trying to do by shipping its worst teams to the UK…is this supposed to help the brand? Anyway, Trevor predictably broke out against the Titans and his buy low window might be over, but it’s still worth a shot to try and nab him for an underperforming veteran.
Week 5
What’s missing from this chart is his rushing performance (7-28-1) which made this a really solid fantasy day. His arrow is pointing up and Urban Meyer must be fired if he doesn’t get this win, and really should have been fired this week. I don’t know what else Khan needs to see to admit a mistake and move on. The team has. Solid start against the Dolphins and still a buy-low.
Kirk Cousins vs the Panthers
The bloom has come off the rose. Since his scorching start to the season, Cousins has turned in below average performances in his past two starts, only notching a single TD in each and staying below 300 yards in each contest. He has zero rushing upside giving him a very shaky floor. Carolina is averaging 3.2 sacks per game through five, and I don’t think that his old legs can evade their pass rush. The Panthers have softened a bit but also are only allowing a 58% completion rate this season and 63% in their last three. Sit Cousins this week for higher upside options at QB like Fields and for emerging skill position flexes like Kadarius Toney and Devonta Booker.
Sam Darnold vs the Vikings
Another QB who started hot but is now seeing his value plummet is Sam Darnold. He didn’t just have a down game against the Eagles—he had a total meltdown. 177 yards, 1 touch, 3 ints. His rushing floor disappeared as well (2-10 and no scores).
Week 5 – Shit Got Ugly
Minnesota is stiffening against QBs lately (59% completion rate in their last 3). I would sit Darnold for higher upside options like Trevor, Heinicke, and Fields or a high-upside skill player.
Daniel Jones vs the Rams
If Daniel Jones plays, which is looking more likely after he was seen tossing the ball around at practice, I think he makes for a really solid start and could be a good buy low. Beware that he was not performing well AT ALL vs the Cowboys before he went out, but the Cowboys are playing lights out on defense under Dan Quinn and that was an easy call. The Rams defense is a shell of its former self, and I think they would give up a lot of points to Jones if he plays. Solid start if healthy.
Carson Wentz vs the Texans
Wentz had one hell of a night Monday night. After turning in average performances all season, he broke out for 400+ yards and two TDs in what looked like it was going to be a route of the Ravens. Then Lamar put the entire franchise on his back and willed his team to a victory. One can’t discount this performance for Wentz completely, but expecting it to become the norm would be a mistake.
Week 5
The long TD was more of a great play by Pittman than Wentz, as Pittman had to come back to the ball and catch the ball over a defenders helmet. The Texans are not as bad against the pass as some might expect, ranking 14th in fantasy points allowed to QBs. Expect something more along the lines of 250 yards and 1-2 TDs, not anything close to Monday night. If that’s better than your other options, start away.
Mac Jones vs the Cowboys
Mac Jones had a down week against the Texans as the Patriots tried to achieve more balance in run vs pass. He tied his career-low in pass attempts with 30, and the Patriots found themselves down early against the Texans and needing a comeback to win. The balance was pure 50/50 if you count Mac’s run for 3 yards. Not only did the formula not work, not only did Harris once again fumble near the goal line almost costing them a win as in week 1 against the Dolphins, but there’s very little chance New England’s defense is stout enough allow a run-friendly game script. Thus I think we see Mac with around 40 attempts, which has provided good enough numbers for a QB2 start thus far. I expect at least 1 pick, possibly 2, but also around 275 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Derek Carr vs the Broncos
Poor Derek Carr. Say whatever you want about Gruden, he was good for Derek Carr’s career and was an unabashed supporter. I can’t imagine losing Gruden is a good thing for Carr or the team in general. He fell victim to a very good Bears defense that currently ranks 1st in sacks per game, holding him to just 206 yards and 1 interception and no scores and sacking him 3 times. The Broncos are 1st in completion percentage allowed at 56% on the season. Last game’s chart is not pretty:
Week 5: Under Pressure
All the throws bunched around the LOS show that the Bears were successful in disrupting Carr’s game with pressure. The Broncos can likely achieve coverage sacks with Surtain and Fuller while doubling Waller. Given all the turbulence I see a down night for Carr, sit for better options.
Taylor Heinicke vs the Chiefs
The Chiefs are a get-right matchup (#1 in fantasy points allowed to QBs) for Heinicke who is alternating good and bad weeks. If he can’t get it done against the Chiefs and throws up another stinker, the team will have to think about turning back to Ryan Fitzpatrick, even though he’s not exactly a paragon of stability himself. If you have Heinicke rostered and don’t have really great options he’s a must start in this opportunity. He must know the pressure is on, and one thing we have learned about Heinicke is that he leaves absolutely nothing on the field. Start.
Teddy Bridgewater vs the Raiders
The Raiders are actually pretty tough on opposing QBs, but in superflex leagues it’s hard to sit someone who just turned in 288-2-1. Bridge is a good bet for solid QB2 production with QB1 upside. He’s top 10 in intended air yards (9.2) and the Sutton connection is going to start hitting, possibly this weekend. He’s also a good buy-low with Jeudy coming off IR sooon.
Ryan Tannehill vs the Bills
Sooooo Tannehill is not looking good this season. He’s currently sandwiched between Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz in average fantasy points per game. And what’s worse, his points have declined for 3 straight weeks. His rating and completion percentage have been erratic, and he’s 22nd in EPA+CPOE composite. And now he gets the Bills, 1st against QBs. We are all hoping that this is AJ Brown’s breakout week, but wouldn’t that mean that it has to at least be a significant improvement for Tannehill? Against the #1 pass defense in the league? It’s hard to see, especially with their offense running completely through Henry and no one seemingly able to stop it. Sit if you have better options.
Justin Fields vs Packers
Over the last three games, the Bears are dead last in pass attempts per game. As in 19 attempts per game. Those games were the offensive black hole against Cleveland, the not nearly as close as the score looked game against the Lions, and the drubbing of the Raiders this past Sunday. Does anyone on earth think that the Bears can have a shred of hope against the Packers throwing 19 times and relying on Damien Williams and Herbert to win? Me neither. Just to put that number in perspective, the next closest attempts/game are the Saints with 26 over the same span. The Packers have the sixth most pass attempts against them in the past 4 weeks (excluding the anomaly against the Saints). So how did Fields look against the Raiders?
Week 5: In a word, not good
But consider that Fields has shown a good deep ball, Packers’ opposing QBs are averaging 38 attempts per game, he could be looking at his breakout week. And he is not rushing the ball, at all, right now. 4 yards against the Raiders. Expect attempts—passing and rushing—to skyrocket against the Packers.
Abandon All Hope, Ye Who Start These Guys
Jacoby Brisset: Big bag of nope on this one.
Davis Mills: I actually almost put him into the questionable start category but I need to see one more game like his last one.
Gentle Ben: A shell of his former self, might be time for the shelf. Eat some hay? I just may…
Jared Goff: Just not getting it done, 0-5, poor Lions fans.
Geno Smith: Yes, Geno looked great in relief of Wilson, but I refuse to believe you don’t have better starting options somewhere on your roster. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he outplayed Tannehill.
