When rookie QBs figure into your draft plans, as they should in 2QB leagues, it’s worth a brief look at how strength of schedule will impact those players.
Most will correctly cite that strength of schedule should not have a huge impact on your draft, even in redraft. After all, playing against teams that consistently score enough to win games usually benefits fantasy players. Higher scores mean more shootouts, or garbage time which while more risky can pose more fantasy reward as defenses switch to prevent and give up yards in chunks.
However, when rookie QBs figure into your draft plans, as they should in 2QB leagues, it’s worth a brief look at how it will impact those players.
Bears
The Bears come in at the 9th hardest schedule in the league and start off against the LA Rams ferocious pass rush. Since Dalton has been named the week 1 starter, this schedule will likely play to Fields’s advantage in terms of taking over the team.
However Fields’s owners need to beware of a brutal stretch in the middle of the season where the Bears take on the Bucs, 49ers, Steelers, and Ravens coming out of their November 15th bye. Expect Fields to struggle during this stretch.
Patriots
The Pats get the 12th hardest schedule which puts them solidly in the middle, but on the harsher side of the fence. They don’t have a murderer’s row of defenses like the Bears do, but face teams that can put up some serious points, which bodes well for whichever QB gets the job.
I don’t expect Cam to lose the job because he is getting picked apart by secondaries or shut down by the pass rush (with the exception of the Bucs on October 3rd). I expect Cam to lose the job because he’s just not that great of a passer and Jones is simply a better fit for the offense that New England has run for the better part of the past 20 years.
If Jones gets the reigns after week 5 he has a very favorable schedule for fantasy success, starting against the Texans followed by the Cowboys and the Jets. I can’t really think of three teams more conducive to rookie success at QB.
Jets
Zach Wilson is basically unchallenged for the starting role, so the easier the better as there is no one ahead of him. The Jets have the 20th hardest schedule, but Wilson does face some tough defenses out of the gate with the Pats in week 2 and what should be a much improved Broncos defense in week 3.
I expect the first half of the season to be rough for Wilson which means he could be a better WW or mid-season trade target than a draft target. I like his upside after the second tilt against the Pats October 24, with only the Colts and Bucs looking like tough matchups from there on out.
Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence, head coach shenanigans aside, is the only rookie signal caller other than Wilson without even a modicum of competition for the job. Therefore, the Jaguars’ 24th-toughest schedule works in his favor.
Trevor gets to make his NFL debut against the Texans, who have all the appearances of being the worst team in the league on both sides of the ball. They have jettisoned talent all over the organization and are now left with no quarterback, no running game, no receivers to speak of, and lack a single name of import on the defensive side of the ball.
Games against the Colts, Niners, Rams and Colts will be tough (he faces the Colts again in week 18 but that shouldn’t matter for fantasy) but overall the schedule is good news for his rookie progress.
49ers
The Niners have the easiest schedule in the league, which is the worst news for those hoping for significant production out of Lance this season.
Even with mediocre play, Jimmy G should be able to keep his squad above .500 and thus in the postseason hunt, which is likely going to keep Lance on the sideline. They don’t play a serious defense until October 24 against the Colts, and shouldn’t even face a serious challenge (assuming Rodgers doesn’t play) until October 10th against the Cardinals.
They could conceivably go into that week 4-0, which means even if Garropolo goes into the bye with a loss, the team is still 4-1 and well positioned for a postseason run. That doesn’t scream “go with the totally untested rookie” to me.
Even if they drop their next 3 against the Colts, Bears, and Cardinals, it would be unwise to make Lance’s first NFL start against the Rams and what should be the best defense in the NFL. Which makes November 21st against the Jags Lance’s likely first game as a starter if he doesn’t win the job in camp.
Bonus: Eagles and Dolphins
Former teammates Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa both get the benefit of easy schedules (25th and 27th respectively) in their sophomore campaigns. Truth is, neither seemed fully NFL ready in their rookie years, though Hurts was able to use his legs to salvage poor passing performances.
Tua is not so lucky. He is closer to Aaron Rodgers as a runner than Lamar Jackson, so he needs some leaky secondaries to build his confidence and refine his game. Unfortunately he won’t get it early, facing the Colts, Bucs, and Pats in his first five games.
Hurts has an easier runway, with only the Niners defense looming large in the first five weeks, which will buy him much needed time to acclimate to the speed of the game and get better at reads. Hurts is currently going as QB12ish due to his rushing floor, and Tua is going around QB21.
2021 presents an intriguing prospect of late-round value for 2QB and Superflex league. Five QBS haven’t been taken in the top 15 picks since 1999 when Tim Couch (1) started a run that included Donovan McNabb (2), Akili Smith (3), Daunte Culpepper (11), and Cade McNown (12).
This shows how rare it is to have potentially five new starting QBs entering the NFL in the same year, and also reminds us of the bust rate of rookie QBs no matter how high their pre-draft stock. Only McNabb carved out a truly great career, and only Culpepper delivered fantasy value as a starter for a brief run.
Which means that the likelihood of all five 2021 rookie QBs returning value is low, making their training camps potentially pivotal to those waiting on a second QB in redraft (hint), and positioned to draft one of the five in dynasty. Below are the camps I am keeping a close eye on, both for rookie QB viability and a few other battles of note.
Patriots: Cam vs Lil Mac
If you followed the beat writers at OTAs and minicamp, it was like a duel between Chicken Little and Pollyanna. Either the earth was crumbling under Jones’s feet or he was the next savior of Patriot Land, rescuing them from their 1 season of mediocrity.
The reports on Cam, pre and post hand-injury, were more measured: most of them were about what he didn’t do wrong rather than what he did right. Cam has declared that he is “fully healthy” for the first time since 2016. It’s hard to understand why people get excited about this knowing that he passed for 3500, 19 and 14 that season. Also, this isn’t the first time he has declared himself fully healthy since then since then (not a typo).
Given that each QB presents a completely different picture of the Patriots offense under center, it’s worth hearkening back to one year ago when the talk was how Cam’s skill set would require a wholesale change in the Patriots offense, and what the results were.
I’m going to be monitoring who is getting the majority of reps with the 1s by week 2 and looking to see if both get equal time against the 1s in weeks 1 and 2 of the preseason. If Mac Jones is showing deep ball accuracy and isn’t an absolute liability against the pass rush, I think Belichek and McDaniels get back to the old way of things sooner rather than later.
Saints: Winston vs Hill
I can’t be the only person that remembers Jameis Winston finished as the QB1 in many leagues a year ago. While Taysom Hill is a great player and a good quarterback, I think this job is more Jameis’s to lose than to win.
His one-year deal is small ($4.5m) and loaded with incentives (additional $7m) which leads me to believe that he thinks he’s got a very good shot at the starting job.
If we are not seeing reports of Jameis badly missing receivers or planting gifts to linebackers and corners during drills, there is a chance that a year of watching and learning has eliminated the one aspect of his game that made the league leader in yardage a backup the very next year. I will admit I have never been a fan, dating back to #crableggate at FSU, but I think he absolutely deserves the shot over Hill, and if he can conquer his one weakness, could easily be a league-winner in 2QB leagues as the 28th QB in ADP and available at the back end of the 9th in 12-team leagues.
Bears: Fields vs Dalton
To me, this really is only about who starts for the first few weeks. The outcome of Fields starting the majority of games this year is inevitable. The only thing to watch for is if Fields forces Nagy’s hand.
Nagy is steadfast that “Dalton is the starter” bringing back horrific memories of “Rex is our quarterback” in Bears fans everywhere. But given the schedule, with the Bears facing the buzz saw of Aaron Donald and the Rams week 1, offering Dalton as the sacrificial lamb makes sense regardless of how badly Fields outperforms Dalton in camp and preseason.
Nagy will start Dalton week 1 and take his licks in what is likely to be an absolute destruction. Whether or not Dalton makes it out of the game healthy, expect a vague “ankle issue” to pop up week 2 if Fields looks ready in camp.
If Fields struggles, badly, the latest I would expect him to start would be against the Lions at home in week 4. Nagy and Pace know they are half out the door.
49ers: Lance vs Garropolo
Trey Lance absolutely give the 49ers the best chance to win this season IF he doesn’t implode during training camp. The general consensus since before the draft is that the D2 prospect will need time to develop especially after only playing one game in the 2020 college season.
Thus far there are no strong signals that the 49ers plan to rush Lance along, especially if Garropolo can show enough during camp to prove he won’t be a liability under center, so he’s the one to watch during camp.
If reports are trending generally positive towards his performance in camp, there is a good chance he is given the first five games as starter. If he can lead the Niners to a 3-2 start, he may survive the bye, which means we may not see Lance under center until November.
This would make this team one to avoid on draft day. A strong showing of Lance over Garropolo could mean that Lance starts week 1, in which case Lance could be a viable late-round QB2 target with upside.
Tua Superlatives
Tua is currently going as QB21 in drafts, reflecting the lukewarm feeling on whether he will ever live up to his draft hype.
What we need to see out of Dolphins camp are superlatives. Most impressive player. Most improved player. Outstanding, excellent, flawless, etc. If we are not hearing those notes hit often by trusted beat writers, he may not live up to his current QB21 status.
Tua is not a runner. He won’t have a safe floor from his legs if he does not develop significantly as a downfield passer, and with established deep threat Will Fuller and rookie Jaylen Waddle available to catch passes, there will be no excuses for his year two campaign.
If the hype train is not going full steam into week two of camp, drafters should look elsewhere for their QB2.
Ravens: Who Runs with the Ones?
Yes the Ravens gave a good contract to Gus Edwards, one befitting a 1A back instead of a number 2. Yes Lamar Jackson remains the best running QB in the league. But are these really reasons to discount J.K. Dobbins’s 6.0 ypc in his rookie year?
For reference, out of Christian McCaffrey, Ladanian Tomlinson, and Adrian Peterson, only Peterson even approached this clip at 5.6 ypc his rookie year. McCaeffrey and Tomlinson didn’t even come close.
Yes Dobbins’s week 17 against Cincy inflated his stats, but the team has openly stated that getting him more involved is a focus of the offseason. What to watch is the distribution of reps with the ones between two very capable backs. If the Ravens are intent on getting Dobbins more involved, it should show in a 65+ percent of reps.
Dobbins has the skill set to win out on talent over Edwards, so I wouldn’t shy away from making Dobbins a first round selection if the camp reports are favorable.
Jets: Wilson Oasis or Mirage?
Going into the draft I had Wilson pegged as the most likely bust of the 2021 class. BYU simply does not face defenses approaching NFL caliber and film study reveals that Wilson rarely faced serious pressure on his dropbacks. Perhaps adding to my pessimism was an eery mirror of Johnny Manziel.
Unlike Manziel, Wilson does not have a Tebow-esque windup on deep balls, and did not have a Mike Evans to bail him out and pad his stats. He does seem to possess an ability to salvage throws on breakdowns that bears some resemblance of Patrick Mahomes, which no doubt helped his draft capital.
The Jets present an opportunity in that their years of sickening mediocrity under colossal failure Adam Gasse are scaring off drafters. As the NFL proves every year, the sheer volume of change provides instances where teams that are bottom of the barrel can approach greatness in a single season. I would not be shocked to see the Jets be that next team.
Wilson’s OTAs and Minicamp were met with varying degrees of effusive praise from a New York media desperate for a good story. Wilson represents a late-round target that will deliver almost immediate returns on his season-long viability. After matchups with the Panthers and Patriots, one would be able to decide whether Wilson’s star is rising or falling, and swap him out for a Ryan Fitzpatrick or Drew Lock on the WW.
Rams: Will Stafford Burst the Bubble?
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
There is no battle here: Stafford is the starter. The situation to monitor is the degree to which Stafford’s presence changes Sean McVay’s game plan.
With Goff, the Rams relied on bubble screens. McVay seemed to game plan around Goff’s obvious weakness under pressure and designed most passing plays on quick releases, in order to minimize Goff’s decision making while staring down a pass rush.
The question of how much Stafford will benefit from working under a true offensive mind is a big one for 2021. But maybe the bigger question is how much shifting the playbook from bubble screens to a less-limited offensive scheme will benefit Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. While I don’t expect Stafford to become a top 5 QB at this point in his career, I do expect improvement. However at QB11 ADP, his improvement is already baked in.
The thing to watch at Rams camp is whether the playbook opens up to deeper passes and longer developing pass plays with Stafford under center. It’s expected, but old habits die hard.
Jaguars: Etienne vs Robinson
As a Robinson dynasty owner I hated seeing Etienne getting drafted by the Jaguars. But then I remembered how crazy Urban Meyer is.
Etienne’s drumbeat (thanks Cecil) all offseason has been about catching passes, from rookie minicamp practicing exclusively as a wide receiver to the latest beat about being the pass-catching back. Meyer loves slash players and unfortunately for Etienne and Etienne dynasty owners, may limit his career by trying to force him into a Harvin-type role.
As much as I hate to admit it, I think Etienne’s talent as a full-time back is superior to Robinson’s, and given rational coaching (thanks Bloom) he should take over as the primary back about mid-season. That being said, based on Meyer’s career tendencies, I don’t think we can assume rational coaching, and instead should expect an NCAA level of trite coaching truisms to triumph over winning games for the first 7-8 until Meyer feels his seat getting hot. Hell, I really wouldn’t be surprised to see Lawrence not start under some “rookies have to earn it” bs.
If Robinson is seeing primary usage as “the back” and Etienne is being deployed all over the field in training camp, I think Robinson could be a value similar to Damien Harris with Mac Jones. If Etienne sees the majority of run with the ones in week 3 of camp, we could be looking at a sneaky round 6 value.
Broncos: Lock vs Teddy
I’m kind of throwing up in my mouth as I write this, but this is at the very least a starting QB situation to monitor for leagues that don’t cap QBs.
If Teddy wins the job, expect Jerry Jeudy to have a better season. If Lock wins the job I think he will throw his way out of it by about week five. Neither are draft targets unless simply having a warm body is a competitive advantage in your league.
