After week 9 I’m not going to even pretend I know what’s going on any more. Here are the top five scoring QBs from week 9 in order: Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Matt Ryan, Josh Johnson, and Carson Wentz. Josh Allen was 20th. Patrick Mahomes was 22nd and Joe Burrow was 23rd. All three finished behind Jordan Love in his first career start.
Anyone who says they saw week 9 coming is completely full of it. Show me one guy who had Josh Johnson in their top five and Josh Allen out of the top ten (against the Jaguars!)
Weeks like week 9 should cause all of us to start examining our assumptions, not about individual players necessarily, but about the point of even trying to prognosticate this stuff. And maybe some individual players, like Mahomes and potentially Burrow.
Looking into the EPA+CPOE composite scores of weeks 4-8, there was definitely some warning on Mahomes, but not so much on Allen, Stafford, or Burrow, who both cratered in week 9 against middling opponents. Ryan and Wentz, who both finished top-five against good and bad defenses respectively, were both in the top ten of this metric weeks 4-8.
Player
EPA+CPOE composite
1
M.Stafford
0.199
2
J.Allen
0.194
3
T.Brady
0.166
4
R.Tannehill
0.165
5
K.Murray
0.161
6
J.Burrow
0.155
7
Aa.Rodgers
0.151
8
M.Ryan
0.150
9
M.Jones
0.138
10
C.Wentz
0.133
11
L.Jackson
0.130
12
T.Tagovailoa
0.120
13
D.Carr
0.110
14
P.Mahomes
0.108
15
T.Bridgewater
0.098
16
J.Hurts
0.072
17
B.Roethlisberger
0.066
18
T.Lawrence
0.065
19
K.Cousins
0.051
20
J.Fields
0.051
21
B.Mayfield
0.032
22
D.Mills
0.031
23
T.Heinicke
0.027
24
J.Goff
0.023
25
J.Herbert
0.023
26
D.Jones
0.022
27
S.Darnold
-0.025
If we take a look at a smaller sample of weeks 6-8, we see Stafford stay at the top, Allen slip a little, Burrow move up, Ryan and Wentz crater (after all, Ryan had a disastrous week 8 and Wentz is always inconsistent), and Mahomes stay right around the middle of the league.
Player
EPA+CPOE composite
1
M.Stafford
0.234
2
R.Tannehill
0.217
3
J.Allen
0.180
4
Aa.Rodgers
0.159
5
J.Burrow
0.152
6
T.Brady
0.149
7
K.Murray
0.141
8
M.White
0.125
9
T.Bridgewater
0.123
10
T.Tagovailoa
0.120
11
M.Jones
0.103
12
K.Cousins
0.096
13
G.Smith
0.087
14
P.Mahomes
0.071
15
B.Roethlisberger
0.067
16
J.Hurts
0.061
17
C.Wentz
0.059
18
M.Ryan
0.056
19
D.Mills
0.039
20
J.Fields
0.037
21
J.Goff
0.024
22
T.Lawrence
0.020
23
T.Heinicke
0.010
24
L.Jackson
0.009
25
D.Jones
0.001
26
J.Herbert
-0.052
27
S.Darnold
-0.054
So other than Mahomes, there really weren’t any major warning flags on these players who unexpectedly delivered duds week 9 against lesser opponents. I do believe that the Titans and Jaguars defenses have improved some, but they did not all the sudden become world-beaters overnight. Week 9 unusually high variance on quarterbacks and pass-catchers was likely just that, an unusually high variance. So the best thing is not to overreact to this and expect a basic regression to the mean here. After all, do we really expect Colt McCoy, Baker Mayfield and Matt Ryan to dominate the position for the rest of the season as they did in week 9?
Obvious QB1 Starts in Superflex
Lamar Jackson vs the Dolphins: No reason not to put him at the top spot this week given his rushing floor is elevating every week. The Dolphins defense is nothing to be scared of.
Josh Allen vs the Jets: The Jets just put Carson Wentz in the top five. Given the info above we can safely chalk up week 9 against the Jags to an aberration and confidently start Allen this week in a plus matchup.
Tom Brady vs the WFT: Absolutely no reason Tom should not continue his dominant season against this pass-funnel defense.
Justin Herbert vs the Vikings: Herbert was one of the few top-flight QBs along with Jackson to survive the week 9 purge. After a momentary dip in the standings Herbert is once again playing great ball. Minnesota is bottom 10 in passing yards allowed per game in their past three contests.
Matt Stafford vs the 49ers: Stafford should be fine following his week 9 disaster against the Titans. The Rams need to pass less and run more, which could dampen his fantasy outlook this week.
Kyler Murray vs the Panthers: Panthers have been playing great in their past three against the pass, but that has come against Daniel Jones, Matt Ryan, and Mac Jones. Fire Murray up as long as he is healthy.
Derek Carr vs the Chiefs: Carr is still throwing a ton (46 attempts last game) and just needs to find Waller in the end zone more to be a top-five QB this week. Should be doable against the Chiefs who are giving up 1.7 passing TDs in their last three, and that includes games against Jordan Love and Daniel Jones.
Questionable QB Starts in Superflex
Patrick Mahomes vs the Raiders
Yes, we have reached that point. As we saw above, Mahome’s predictive metrics have been middle of the league since week 4. He finished outside the top 20 last week. He finished outside the top 15 in week 8. He finished outside the top 20 in week 7. Something is not right. If you haven’t already notified your league that he is available for trade, it might not be too late to do so. His name recognition alone can probably net you someone like Burrow or Herbert.
Mahomes in 2021 is average, at best
Now, there is always the possibility that things just click and he gets back to his earlier season form. But there’s no denying that Mahomes over the past 5 weeks has been at or below average, which is unacceptable given his draft capital. Would I bench Mahomes for a lesser QB? No, even though I think the probability of him finishing outside the top 20 once again is about 30%. I’d put the probability of him finishing top five at about 10%. But if you somehow have Josh Allen and David Carr, yeah I would bench him until he turns things around.
Russel Wilson vs the Packers
I think Russ is a fairly safe start in his first game back from IR, but he’s not automatic. He’s not a volume passer. He plays in the most conservative, old-school offense in the league and I don’t think that will change until Carrol is shown the door. The Packers are only giving up .7 TDs in their last three. So his own offense is working against a big yardage total, and he’s playing a team that isn’t giving up passing touchdowns in big numbers. I think he’s absolutely a solid QB2 but not a slam-dunk QB1 this week.
Jalen Hurts vs the Broncos
The Jalen Hurts mystery continues. We know he’s good at fantasy football. But is he good at real football? He’s probably good enough to finish out the season as the Eagles starter. After that I think it’s fair to expect the Eagles to at least bring in healthy competition next year. He hasn’t gone for over 300 yards since week 4. He did get a QBR north of 100 last week despite a down fantasy day.
Week 9 only 17 attempts
His stats show the obvious: his team is trying to win keeping the ball on the ground and out of the air. They’ve accepted that he’s not going to be an accurate pocket passer and are embracing the run. This makes a lot of sense going against the Broncos who are giving up 5.1 ypc over their last three. A solid QB2 but unlikely to hit quality passing yardage.
Carson Wentz vs the Jaguars
God I hate to admit this but the charts don’t lie: over the past 5 weeks Wentz has been an above average QB. The Jaguars are a plus matchup giving up 71% completion rate to opposing QBs over their last three. Wentz should be a solid start again this week.
Dak Prescott vs the Falcons
Dak looked more than off last week. He looked absolutely terrible.
Dak’s Week 9 – deep ball was off
Given that he was just coming back from a calf injury, and before that a shoulder injury, and before that a season-ending ankle injury, it’s fair to wonder if the injuries are not mounting up and messing with his throwing motion, confidence, or both. Dak is another guy you might look at moving while his name recognition is still high. Prior to last week Denver looked absolutely beatable through the air, just like the Falcons do now.
Matt Ryan vs the Cowboys
Ugh, Matt Ryan. Turned in a couple good games before the bye, came back from the bye totally limp, then managed another good game while throwing two touchdowns to Zacheus. Ryan is taking what the defense gives him, and if that means ignoring Pitts and zeroing in on a no-name player he’s doing that all day. Diggs will likely play on Pitts, meaning it’s another dink and dunk day for Ryan, and it will probably be good enough for a top-15 finish.
Teddy Bridgewater vs the Eagles
Steady Teddy is back, not overwhelming, not underwhelming. Likely a safe bet against the Eagles, who are giving up 1.3 passing touchdowns in their last three. He threw for 249-1 against the Cowboys and I would expect similar numbers, possibly an extra touchdown.
Kirk Cousins vs the Chargers
The Chargers are an incredibly tough defense to pass against, so expect Dalvin Cook to shoulder most of the load here. Cousins is under 200 yards passing in his last two outings, both coming against defensively inferior opponents (Ravens and Cowboys). He’s still capable of throwing deep as evidenced last week, but there isn’t enough volume, and his intended air yards per attempt are down to 6.8 after averaging 8 last year.
Mike White vs the Bills
The only defense outperforming the Chargers against the pass are the Bills. This makes White’s third start a dicey one, but he might be the only QB on the bottom half of QB2 status who is a real threat to throw for 300+ yards. His encore was cut short last week with a forearm injury, so this will be his follow-up from his blowup game where he threw for 400+ yards. Elijah Moore’s emergence in week 9 bodes well, but owners should temper their expectations and play more established threats at the position if they have them.
Ryan Tannehill vs the Saints
Despite a decisive victory against the Rams and no Derrick Henry, Tannehill had a very subpar game with 143-1-1. Very on-script for week 9. HIs prior two games were much better, eclipsing 250 yards passing in each, but Tannehill seems to always remind us that he’s difficult to trust even as a QB2. The Saints should be a better matchup for him, averaging 270 passing yards allowed over their last 3 and giving up 332 to Matt Ryan.
Jimmy G/Trey Lance vs the Rams
Honestly I have no idea who will end up starting or finishing this game for the 49ers and we are unlikely to get any indication before Saturday. If its Jimmy G, expect low passing numbers but an efficient game. If it’s Lance, expect a decent rushing floor (like 45 yards) and multiple sacks and picks. Either way it’s a desperation play and not a recommended start.
Baker Mayfield vs the Patriots
Good for an efficient 235 and 2 most weeks, just not someone who will help win your week but not someone who will lose it either. Low-end QB2, should deliver more points than most flex options.
Taylor Heinicke vs the Bucs
The last and least of the viable QB2 options, just don’t start him thinking the Bucs are still a pushover in the passing game. Over their last three they are surrendering only 163 passing yards per game, good for second in the league.
QB Sits in Superflex
Tua/Brissett vs the Ravens: If it’s Tua he bumps up to a mid-range QB2 option but it’s not sounding promising as of Wednesday.
Goff vs the Steelers: Not a starting option even in Superflex.
Big Ben vs the Lions: Arm is cooked, same as every other week.
Mac Jones vs the Browns: The Patriots are trying to win dirty and this leads to very mediocre stat lines from Jones. If both Harris and Stevenson sit with concussions, he could be serviceable as a QB2.
PJ Walker vs the Cardinals: Going against the Cardinals pass rush is not how you want to start your NFL career.
Trevor Lawrence vs the Colts: I still have hope for this kid, but not until Meyer is fired.
Trying to get value out of the waiver wire week 10 is going to feel a lot like trying to build a house out of burnt timber. Week 9 laid waste to any idea of what the hell is going on in the NFL and left anyone trying to make sense of it feeling like this.
I mean, the Bills lost to the Jaguars 9-6. The Chiefs managed only 13 points against the Rodgers-less Packers. The Bengals got annihilated by the Browns. The Titans (!) without Derrick Henry completely shut down the Rams offense AND won the game 28-16. The Broncos absolutely manhandled the Cowboys. Tim Patrick had more fantasy points and receiving yards than CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper combined. This was the WTF week of all WTF weeks.
If you started Allen, Burrow, Stafford, Prescott, or Mahomes you likely got annihilated this week. Same with Chase, Adams, Lamb, Cooper, Hill, Samuel, Pitts, Andrews, etc etc.
So in addition to eyeing the waiver wire, you should be looking at taking advantage of owner frustration and trading for the players who severely underwhelmed this week. Unfortunately for me I already own most of them. On to the Waiver Wire for Week 10, but get those trade offers out.
Waiver Wire Quarterbacks Week 10
Justin Fields, 26% rostered, 100% FAAB
If you have anything left in your FAAB I would consider blowing it all on Fields this week. He should have had a terrible game and the Bears should have never been in this one, even though the Steelers suck. The Bears would have won this game except for an egregious taunting call late in the game, something that is already setting twitter conspiracy theories ablaze about refs betting on games. Fields is producing like a mid-level fantasy starter and with his rushing floor there is no way he should be sitting on waivers.
Trey Lance, 18% rostered, 80% FAAB
Nothing new to report here other than the Niners lost to the Cardinals (without Murray or Hopkins) and are 3-5. Their season is over and the only debate now is whether learning on the job would be good for Lance. I think it would. Expect a nice rushing floor and inconsistent passing.
Baker Mayfield, 37% rostered, 20% FAAB
Even in a blowout Mayfield couldn’t eclipse 250 yards. This team is just not built for passing. But if you are holding Daniel Jones or for some reason Sam Darnold he’s a clear improvement.
Drops: Darnold, Love, Daniel Jones
Waiver Wire Running Backs Week 10
D’Ernest Johnson, 40% rostered, 55% FAAB
News just came out Tuesday that Chubb has COVID and will need two negative tests prior to the Sunday game against New England to play. Demetric Felton also has entered the COVID protocol, meaning that if both backs miss the game D’Ernest is in for a week-winning workload.
Eno Benjamin, 1% rostered, 50% FAAB
Chase Edmonds is reportedly going to miss multiple weeks with the ankle injury that sidelined him this weekend, and Benjamin is likely to get 8-10 carries as the change of pace behind James Connor. The coach has been talking him up and he could be a multiple-week band-aid to injury ravaged running back rosters.
Jordan Howard, 15% rostered, 40% FAAB
Why not a spike game by Jordan Howard? It’s week 9, anything makes sense! 17 carries for 71 yards and a touchdown following a two touchdown game.
Jarrett Patterson, 2% rostered, 35% FAAB
The WFT is 2-6 and going nowhere, and Antonio Gibson has been playing hurt all season on a fractured shin. That is not going to get better just during a bye week, and Patterson got 11 carries to his 8 in week 8. He was my top RB pickup last week and the only reason he isn’t this week is we can’t ever count on rational coaching.
Rhamondre Stevenson, 6% rostered, 30% FAAB
If you haven’t already puked on the NE running back carousel this season it’s time to buy a ticket. Stevenson was the back who got the love last week in a run-fest and for a team that wants to win ugly, he makes a lot of sense. Therefore he will probably be a surprise inactive this week. But a better chip than most.
Drops: No one, hold onto running backs like grim death.
Waiver Wire Wide Receivers Week 10
Elijah Moore, 28% rostered, 100% FAAB
I would put Moore at the top of your queue or give him all your budget. This has been a breakout waiting to happen and as long as anyone but Zach Wilson is throwing the ball it could be for the rest of the season. Let’s face it, Wilson is already a bust. He had bust written all over him during the draft. He’s sucked all year. Two different journeyman have decisively outplayed him this year. Which means Moore should be good for the rest of the season and he has always had the talent. Top add this week.
Darnell Mooney, 44% rostered, 55% FAAB
If Fields can be trusted Mooney can too. He was involved in the running game (1 TD) and got decent targets (6-3-41-1). He has definitely achieved fantasy yo-yo status but worth a shot once again.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, 14% rostered, 15% FAAB
Really hard to trust this guy given the low passing attempts of the team and his low target share, but maybe without OBJ screwing with Mayfield’s head maybe the Browns passing game improves and maybe his targets increase. Realistically though all he will be is a deep threat receiving 2-3 deep targets a game, and he only has to catch one to be a WR3.
It’s not often you can get a viable tight end in week 10 that’s more than a 1-week fill in, but Kmet appears to be just that. His chemistry with Fields has been increasing every week, and if Fields can average over 250 yards passing from here on out, Kmet should benefit weekly as there just aren’t a lot of options in Chicago. He’s seen no fewer than 6 targets his last 3 and saw 8 last week en route to 87 scoreless yards.
Evan Engram, 39% rostered, 15% FAAB
The Giants are an absolute mess but you can’t ignore a healthy target share and two touchdowns over his last two. Engram has the talent to be much more than he is, he just doesn’t have the drive or work ethic. Might be target-forced into some decent games down the stretch.
Donald Parham, 1% rostered, 10% FAAB
It’s very on-script for week 9 that Parham’s breakout game would be overshadowed by both Jared Cook and Stephen Anderson (?) but if you are desperate for a new name and would like someone with rest of season upside, he’s as good as any. Not nearly as good a bet as Kmet but potentially worth a flier.
Drops: Cook
Streaming DSTs for Week 10
Cleveland vs New England, 50% rostered, 5% FAAB
They took it to the Bengals but hell it was week 9, anything could have happened. Still, the Patriots do not have what one would call a dynamic offense and the Browns looked good Sunday.
Las Vegas vs Kansas City, 19% rostered, 5% FAAB
Yes, we have reached the point where we are targeting defenses playing KC. Vegas has been a consistently good defense all year, and they get a reeling Chiefs team at home in the Death Star. Crazy to say it, but they are a good play.
So every week I do an exhaustive look at every QB for Superflex leagues which you can find here. But here is the tl;dr version for setting your lineups. In short, I think Mike White could be a thing and you shouldn’t be afraid to bench crap QBs like Wentz and Big Ben for him.
Week 8 is proving to be more brutal than ever. First off I want to recognize the loss of the family of the girl that died in the crash with Henry Ruggs, and also the loss Ruggs is experiencing despite the carelessness of his actions. Nothing is worth the risk of getting behind the wheel intoxicated.
Going into week 9, owners are now without Aaron Rodgers because of COVID (guess that alternative treatment didn’t quite work) and according to @JayGlazer Kyler Murray is experiencing a legitimate ankle sprain following last week’s game, and could miss this week and possibly more.
We had already said goodbye to Jameis Winston and are still waiting on official word if Taysom Hill will start, but he’s trending in the right direction according to his head coach.
Obvious QB1 Starts Week 9
Matthew Stafford vs the Titans: QB6 finish last week despite only playing 3 quarters, Stafford is playing some of the best ball in the league. The Titans are bottom ten in the league in passing yards allowed.
Josh Allen at the Jaguars: Jacksonville is stiffening against the pass the last three weeks, allowing only 232 passing yards per game, so Allen is only no 2 this week.
Lamar Jackson vs the Vikings: The Vikings barely stood up to the passing attack of Cooper Rush last week. No reason to think Lamar isn’t top three this week.
Dak Prescott vs the Broncos: Check practice reports to ensure he’s good to go but given that he was a game-time decision last week, should be fine. Fire up as QB4.
Joe Burrow vs the Browns: Three straight games with 3 TDs, QBR north of 100, Burrow is playing at a very high level. Still no rushing floor.
Patrick Mahomes II vs Green Bay: Mahomes won’t be facing Rodgers so might not have reason to chuck it, and frankly something is off. Not sure if its practice reps being too easy or Reid losing an edge, but his throws were almost all off last week.
Derek Carr at the Giants: Losing Ruggs hurts but still think Carr is good for 300+ and 2 TDs.
Justin Herbert at the Eagles: Somebody get this kid some strawberries. Two straight duds, maybe the Eagles bottom 8 pass D can help get him back on track.
Kirk Cousins at the Ravens: Cousins has been maddeningly inconsistent but should be good for top 10 numbers in a week with a lot of QBs out.
Tua Tagovaioloa vs the Texans: QBs do kinda well against the Texans. 4th worst in FPA to QBs. With the trade pressure off at least for now, Tua should be back to his fantasy-winning ways.
Jalen Hurts vs the Chargers: We really didn’t learn anything about Hurts last week. The Chargers will tell us a lot about his future. Chargers are top ten against QBs and have shut down running quarterbacks.
Ryan Tannehill at the Rams: Tannehill is without Henry and facing a newly strengthened Rams pass rush. Should be a rough game but garbage time will save his fantasy day.
Questionable QB2 Starts Week 9
Taysom Hill vs the Falcons
All we have to go on is last year, and it sounds like there is a chance that he won’t be able to suit up. But I’m planning on him starting. In his two games against the Falcons he passed for 230+ and had 49-2 and 83-0. Should be good for this week as the Falcons defense has not improved since last year. Probably the best of the QB2s available this week. Start with confidence.
Mike White at the Colts
I covered this in my WW column this week but White took the underneath stuff Cincy was giving him and had a lot of success. Check the chart:
I really can’t see any reason to put this guy any lower. You can’t just accidentally throw for 405 yards and 3 TDs. I can see regression to about 250 and 2 but that’s the floor. 300 and 3 is attainable but the Colts are only giving up 215 yards through their last 3, allow the 12th-most fantasy points to QBs on the season.
Daniel Jones vs the Raiders
Jones just isn’t pulling it together with any regularity. A player that seems to possess all the potential in the world, this is Jones’s third season delivering uneven results.
The Raiders are top ten in the league against the pass in their past three in passing yards allowed and sacks per game, and in the top half in completion percentage. Don’t expect big things from Jones this week, or ever.
Mac Jones at the Panthers
Jones has been less than thrilling as a fantasy option this year. So boring in fact he didn’t even merit a throw chart for week 8. His rating went into the toilet (70.9) as he managed only a 51% completion for a meager 218 yards and no scores. But that was against the Chargers, and Carolina is allowing a 70+ completion percentage to opposing QBs over their last three.
Teddy Bridgewater at the Cowboys
Teddy has been more consistent with previous versions of himself, underwhelming and staying conservative. Likely won’t change against the ascendant Cowboys defense, even though they have softened a bit in their last three. They held Kirk Cousins to under 200 yards passing, I think they will easily be able to do the same to Teddy.
Matt Ryan at the Saints
Ryan came crashing back to earth after a really promising game in week 7 after his bye. He had a 5.4 YPA with only 146 yards on 27 attempts. Some think that Ridley’s late announcement left them scrambling, but the problem that really reared its head is Ryan being scared to throw into the tight coverage surrounding Pitts. Still Pitts didn’t do Ryan any favors catching only 2 of 6 targets. The Saints are currently second in pass completion percentage allowed over their past three, so despite the rivalry this is not a get right spot for Ryan, but I do expect a better outing than last week, like 250 and 2 TDs.
Yikes
Desperation Plays at QB Week 9
Tyrod Taylor at the Dolphins: Very risky play in his first game back.
Jimmy G vs the Cardinals: Don’t chase points and the Cards are likely without Murray. Probably won on the ground.
Baker Mayfield at the Bengals: Not in great shape and very few skills players to rely on, but should be forced to throw by Bengals offense.
Justin Fields at the Steelers: Not a recommended play, the Steelers are sack machines and TJ Watt will have a field day.
Carson Wentz vs the Jets: No longer looking like a cakewalk, and Wentz sucks.
Gentle Ben vs the Bears: Just can’t trust him…arm is shot.
Avoid at All Costs QBs Week 9
Trevor Lawrence vs the Bills: Not with this coach, not against the Bills. No sir.
Sam Darnold vs the Patriots: Belichik is not going to know how to game plan because literally nothing is working for the Panthers right now.
Jordan Love at the Chiefs: Rookie QB who looked terrible in preseason at Arrowhead in his first game as a starter…no.
Colt McCoy at the Niners: You know, I could see him Mike White-ing the Niners, but the floor is literally 65 yards and 18 sacks.
