I am admittedly not an analytics guy. I have always subscribed to the school of eyes plus gut when making fantasy decisions.
There is no question that analytics are taking over all sports gambling and fantasy sports. So it’s time for me to learn, and the best way to do that is to listen to those that know a lot more than me, and to read. And be curious.
I came across two very interesting pieces this morning that I think when combined, could lead to so some smart sit/start decisions this year, even though one is dated.
Run Stop Wins Over Expectation (RSWOE)
This article is more interesting for its NFL implications than its fantasy implications, but I find the chart of the most effective interior run defenses really interesting. Put simply, the Jets were more than doubly effective as the next best team, the Rams, at stopping runs inside last year.
I checked the Jets performance against the run last year on teamrankings.com and they ranked 12th, so this likely means they were more effective stopping runs inside the tackles than outside runs. I did a little searching on team tendencies regarding running inside instead of outside.
Run Gap Tendencies By Team
I ran across a great article written by Tej Smith on mfootballanalytics.com diagnosing effectiveness of the run as illustrated in the above graphic. But the article goes much deeper into the effectiveness cross-referenced with tendencies on inside vs outside runs.
This article came out a year ago, but used four years of data from 2015-2019, so the trends are likely still relevant. Distilling all the info down to applicable fantasy nuggets, essentially runs outside the tackles (end runs) are more effective than runs inside the tackles. It then goes on to graph teams according to number of end runs vs other runs for the length of the data set. Even though the focus is about efficiency, it shows which teams have tendencies to run inside vs. outside.
So, at this point I got really interested because you have a combination of NFL statistical studies that could potentially benefit fantasy decisions.
The Browns, Steelers, and Giants had the lowest number of end runs over four years going into the 2020 season. The Jets had the most effective interior run defense by a wide margin in 2020, despite finishing as the 12th overall run defense that year.
The Jets played the Browns on December 27 last year, which was week 16, fantasy superbowl week. I owned Chubb, and was playing for third place which would have been worth $420 in this league. Chubb, against the Jets interior run defense, ran 11 times for a meager 28 yards, just 2.5 ypc. He did save his fantasy day somewhat with a touchdown and 5 catches for 38 yards, but knowing these trends might have caused me to sit him in favor for a decent wavier wire pickup.
The Chargers had the next highest rate of inside runs after the Browns in terms of Jets 2020 opponents, and the Jets held Kalen Ballage (admittedly inferior talent) to 2.8 ypc and Joshua Kelly to -.5 ypc on 4 carries.
Conversely, the Jets allowed 3.5 ypc to CEH and 6.3 ypc to Darrel Williams when they played the Chiefs, who utilize outside runs far more often.
As I said, I am not an analytics guy, so I won’t try to get into more extrapolation, but I thought both of these pieces were worth sharing as something useful, and as insight to folks like me who might shy away from analytics due to a lack of understanding or curiosity. As Ted Lasso says, always be curious.
